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Is Phosphate Part of the Russell Cycle?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 May 2009

Ian Joint ,
Michael B. Jordan  and
Martin R. Carr
Ian Joint
Affiliation:
NERC Centre for Coastal and Marine Sciences, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, The Hoe, Plymouth, PL1 3DH
Michael B. Jordan
Affiliation:
NERC Centre for Coastal and Marine Sciences, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, The Hoe, Plymouth, PL1 3DH
Martin R. Carr
Affiliation:
NERC Centre for Coastal and Marine Sciences, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, The Hoe, Plymouth, PL1 3DH
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Extract

The evidence for variations in winter phosphate concentration as a component of the ‘Russell Cycle’ has been re-examined. The change from high phosphate concentrations prior to 1930 is the largest apparent variation in concentration through the period 1923–1987. However, these values are the result of a retrospective application in 1938, of a salt correction factor of 1–35. The justification for this factor is examined. It is concluded that there is sufficient uncertainty in the accuracy of the pre-1948 measurements of phosphate concentration to preclude their use in long time-series analysis. A statistical analysis of the post-1948 data shows that a simple first order autoregression model provides a perfectly adequate description of the data; the data can be considered as essentially random, with a small component of carry over from one year to the next. The evidence is weak that variations in winter concentrations of phosphate support the Russell Cycle hypothesis.

Type
Research Article
Information
Journal of the Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom , Volume 77 , Issue 3 , August 1997 , pp. 625 - 633
Copyright
Copyright © Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom 1997

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