Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-c47g7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-16T02:28:44.537Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Does the European Marriage Pattern Explain Economic Growth?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 August 2014

Tracy Dennison  and
Sheilagh Ogilvie
Tracy Dennison
Affiliation:
Professor, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125. E-mail: tkd@hss.caltech.edu.
Sheilagh Ogilvie
Affiliation:
Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge CB3 9DD, United Kingdom. E-mail: sco2@econ.cam.ac.uk.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article scrutinizes the recently postulated link between the European Marriage Pattern (EMP) and economic success. Multivariate analysis of 4,705 demographic observations, covering women's marriage age, female lifetime celibacy, and household complexity in 39 European countries, shows that the most extreme manifestations of the EMP were associated with economic stagnation rather than growth. There is no evidence that the EMP improved economic performance by empowering women, increasing human capital investment, adjusting population to economic trends, or sustaining beneficial cultural norms. European economic success was not caused by the EMP and its sources must therefore be sought in other factors.

Type
Articles
Information
The Journal of Economic History , Volume 74 , Issue 3 , September 2014 , pp. 651 - 693
Copyright
Copyright © The Economic History Association 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

Our particular thanks go to André Carus, Markus Cerman, Paul David, Jeremy Edwards, Tim Guinnane, Phil Hoffman, Lionel Kesztenbaum, Alexander Klein, Paul Rhode, Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, Steve Ruggles, Richard Smith, two anonymous referees, and participants at the Caltech Social Science History workshop, the Berkeley economic history seminar, and the All-UC Economic History Conference, for their stimulating comments on earlier versions of this article. We are very grateful to Jeremy Edwards for his advice on the statistical analysis. We would also like to express our gratitude to the many scholars in the field of historical demography who have generously provided data references which have enriched and improved this work. We dedicate this article to the memory of Peter Laslett and Richard Wall, inspiring teachers, generous scholars, and unforgotten friends.

References

REFERENCES

Acemoglu, Daron. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009.Google Scholar
A'Hearn, Brian, Jörg, Baten, and Dorothee, Crayen. “Quantifying Quantitative Literacy: Age Heaping and the History of Human Capital.” The Journal of Economic History (69), no. 3 (2009): 783–808.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allen, Robert C. The British Industrial Revolution in Global Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.Google Scholar
Anderson, Michael. Family Structure in Nineteenth-Century Lancashire. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.Google Scholar
Andorka, Rudolf, and Tamás, Faragó. “Preindustrial Household Structure in Hungary.” In Family Forms in Historic Europe, edited by Wall, Richard, Robin, Jean and Laslett, Peter, 281–305. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, Judith M. “Women's History: a Study in Continuity and Change.” Women's History Review 2 (1993): 173–84.Google Scholar
Biller, Peter. The Measure of Multitude: Population in Medieval Thought. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.Google Scholar
Bolt, Jutta, and Jan Luiten van, Zanden. “The First Update of the Maddison Project: Reestimating Growth Before 1820.” Maddison-Project Working Papers 4 (2013).Google Scholar
Bonfield, Lloyd. “Developments in European Family Law.” In The History of the European Family, Vol. 1: Family Life in Early Modern Times, 1500–1789, edited by Kertzer, David I. and Barbagli, Marzio, 87–124. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2001.Google Scholar
Bradley, Brian P. and Franklin, F. Mendels. “Can the Hypothesis of a Nuclear Family Organization Be Tested Statistically?” Population Studies (32), no. 2 (1978): 381–94.Google Scholar
Brenner, Robert. “Agrarian Class Structure and Economic Development in PreIndustrial England.” Past & Present 70 (1976): 30–75.Google Scholar
Brenner, Robert. “The Agrarian Roots of European Capitalism.” Past & Present 97 (1982): 20–112.Google Scholar
Burnette, Joyce. Gender, Work, and Wages in Industrial Revolution Britain. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caldwell, John C. “Toward a Restatement of Demographic Transition Theory.” Population and Development Review 2, no. 3/4 (1976): 321–66.Google Scholar
Caldwell, John C. “What Do We Know About Asian Population History? Comparisons of Asian and European Research.” In Asian Population History, edited by Liu, Ts'ui-jung, Lee, James, Reher, David S. et al. 3–23. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.Google Scholar
Cameron, Campbell, and Lee, James Z. “Demographic Impacts of Climatic Fluctuations in Northeast China, 1749–1909.” In Demographic Responses to Economic and Environmental Crisis, edited by Kurosu, Satomi, Bengtsson, Tommy and Campbell, Cameron, 107–32. Kashiwa: Reitaku University Press, 2010.Google Scholar
Cerman, Markus. “Central Europe and the European Marriage Pattern: Marriage Patterns and Family Structure in Central Europe, Sixteenth-Nineteenth Centuries.” In Family History Revisited: Comparative Perspectives, edited by Wall, Richard, Hareven, Tamara K. Ehmer, Josef, et al. 282–307. Newark: University of Delaware Press, 2001.Google Scholar
Coffin, Judith G. “Gender and the Guild Order: The Garment Trades in Eighteenth-Century Paris.” The Journal of Economic History (54), no. 4 (1994): 768–93.Google Scholar
Collins, James B. “The Economic Role of Women in Seventeenth-Century France.” French Historical Studies (16), no. 2 (1989): 436–70.Google Scholar
Crafts, N. F. R. and Terence, C. Mills. “From Malthus to Solow: How Did the Malthusian Economy Really Evolve?” Journal of Macroeconomics (31), no. 1 (2009): 68–93.Google Scholar
Dasgupta, Partha. An Inquiry into Well-Being and Destitution. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1993.Google Scholar
Dekker, Rudolf M. “Women in the Medieval and Early Modern Netherlands.” Journal of Women's History (10), no. 2 (1998): 165–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Moor, Tina, and Jan Luiten van, Zanden. “Girlpower: The European Marriage Pattern and Labour Markets in the North Sea Region in the Late Medieval and Early Modern Period.” Economic History Review (63), no. 1 (2010): 1–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dennison, Tracy. The Institutional Framework of Russian Serfdom. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011.Google Scholar
De Vries, Jan, and Ad van der, Woude. The First Modern Economy: Success, Failure, and Perseverance of the Dutch Economy, 1500–1815. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Donahue, Charles. “The Canon Law on the Formation of Marriage and Social Practice in the Later Middle Ages.” Journal of Family History (8), no. 2 (1983): 144–58.Google Scholar
Donahue, Charles. Law, Marriage, and Society in the Later Middle Ages: Arguments About Marriage in Five Courts. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008.Google Scholar
Dupâquier, Jacques. “La France avant la transition démographique.” In Histoire des populations de l'Europe, edited by Bardet, Jean-Pierre and Dupâquier, Jacques, Vol. 1, 443–443. Paris: Fayard, 1997.Google Scholar
Dürr, Renate. Mägde in der Stadt. Das Beispiel Schwäbisch Hall in der Frühen Neuzeit. Frankfurt: Campus, 1995.Google Scholar
Fauve-Chamoux, Antoinette. “Marriage, Widowhood, and Divorce.” In The History of the European Family, Vol. 1: Family Life in Early Modern Times, 1500–1789, edited by Kertzer, David I. and Barbagli, Marzio, 221–56. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2001.Google Scholar
Flinn, Michael W. The European Demographic System, 1500–1820. Brighton: Harvester, 1981.Google Scholar
Foreman-Peck, James. “The Western European Marriage Pattern and Economic Development.” Explorations in Economic History (48), no. 2 (2011): 292–309.Google Scholar
Galloway, Patrick R. “Basic Patterns in Annual Variations in Fertility, Nuptiality, Mortality, and Prices in Preindustrial Europe.” Population Studies (42), no. 2 (1988): 275–303.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galor, Oded. Unified Growth Theory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2011.Google Scholar
Goubert, Pierre, and Gerald, Denault. “Family and Province: A Contribution to the Knowledge of Family Structures in Early Modern France.” Journal of Family History (2), no. 3 (1977): 179–95.Google Scholar
Greif, Avner. “Family Structure, Institutions, and Growth: The Origins and Implications of Western Corporations.” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings (96), no. 2 (2006): 308–12.Google Scholar
Greif, Avner, and Guido, Tabellini. “Cultural and Institutional Bifurcation: China and Europe Compared.” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings (100), no. 2 (2010): 135–40.Google Scholar
Guinnane, Timothy W. “The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists.” Journal of Economic Literature (49), no. 3 (2011): 589–614.Google Scholar
Guinnane, Timothy W. and Sheilagh, Ogilvie. “Institutions and Demographic Responses to Shocks: Württemberg, 1634–1870.” Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper 962, 2008.Google Scholar
Guinnane, Timothy W. and Sheilagh, Ogilvie. “A Two-Tiered Demographic System: ‘Insiders’ and ‘Outsiders’ in Three Swabian Communities, 1558–1914.” The History of the Family (19), no. 1 (2014): 77–119.Google Scholar
Hafter, Daryl M. Women at Work in Preindustrial France. University Park, PA: Penn State Press, 2007.Google Scholar
Hajnal, John. “European Marriage Patterns in Perspective.” In Population in History: Essays in Historical Demography, edited by Glass, David V. and Eversley, David E. C. 101–43. London: Arnold, 1965.Google Scholar
Hajnal, John. “Two Kinds of Preindustrial Household Formation System.” Population and Development Review (8), no. 3 (1982): 449–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hajnal, John. “Two Kinds of Preindustrial Household Formation System.” In Family Forms in Historic Europe, edited by Wall, Richard, Robin, Jean and Laslett, Peter, 65–104. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1983.Google Scholar
Johansson, Egil. “The History of Literacy in Sweden, in Comparison with Some Other Countries.” In Understanding Literacy in Its Historical Contexts, edited by Graff, Harvey J. Mackinnon, Alison, Sandin, Bengt, et al. 28–59. Lund: Nordic Academic Press, 2009.Google Scholar
Kelly, Morgan, and Cormac, Ó Gráda. “The Preventive Check in Medieval and Preindustrial England.” The Journal of Economic History (72), no. 4 (2012): 1015–35.Google Scholar
Kertzer, David I. “Living with Kin.” In The History of the European Family, Vol. 1: Family Life in the Long Nineteenth Century, 1789–1913, edited by Kertzer, David I. and Barbagli, Marzio, 40–72. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2002.Google Scholar
Klein, Alexander, and Sheilagh, Ogilvie. “Occupational Structure in the Czech Lands Under the Second Serfdom.” CAGE Online Working Paper Series 176, 2013.Google Scholar
Landes, David S. The Unbound Prometheus. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1969.Google Scholar
Langdon, John. “Women and Workers on Royal Building Sites Before the Black Death.” Paper presented at the Tenth Anglo-American Seminar on the Medieval Economy and Society, Durham, 2010.Google Scholar
Lanza, Janine M. From Wives to Widows in Early Modern Paris: Gender, Economy, and Law. Aldershot: Ashgate, 2007.Google Scholar
Laslett, Peter. “The European Family and Early Industrialization.” In Europe and the Rise of Capitalism, edited by Baechler, Jean, Hall, John A. and Mann, Michael, 234–42. Oxford: Blackwell, 1988.Google Scholar
Laurence, Anne. “How Free Were English Women in the Seventeenth Century?” In Women of the Golden Age, edited by Kloek, Els, Teeuwen, Nicole, and Huisman, Marijke, 127–35. Hilversum: Verloren, 1994.Google Scholar
Lindert, Peter H. Growing Public: Social Spending and Economic Growth Since the Eighteenth Century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004.Google Scholar
Macfarlane, Alan. The Origins of English Individualism. Oxford: Blackwell, 1978.Google Scholar
Maddison, Angus. “Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1–2008 AD (Vertical file, copyright Angus Maddison, University of Groningen)” [http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/Historical_Statistics/vertical-file_02-2010.xls].Google Scholar
Manninen, Merja. “The Opportunities of Independent Life for Women in an Eighteenth-Century Finnish Provincial Town.” Scandinavian Journal of History 9, no. 2–3 (1984): 149–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCloskey, Deirdre. Bourgeois Dignity: Why Economics Can't Explain the Modern World. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mokyr, Joel. The Enlightened Economy: An Economic History of Britain, 1700–1850. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009.Google Scholar
Nicolini, Esteban A. “Was Malthus Right? A VAR Analysis of Economic and Demographic Interactions in Preindustrial England.” European Review of Economic History (11), no. 1 (2007): 99–121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ogilvie, Sheilagh. State Corporatism and Proto-Industry: The Württemberg Black Forest, 1580–1797. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997.Google Scholar
Ogilvie, Sheilagh. “The Economic World of the Bohemian Serf: Economic Concepts, Preferences and Constraints on the Estate of Friedland, 1583–1692.” Economic History Review (54), no. 3 (2001): 430–53.Google Scholar
Ogilvie, Sheilagh. A Bitter Living: Women, Markets, and Social Capital in Early Modern Germany. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2003.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ogilvie, Sheilagh. “How Does Social Capital Affect Women? Guilds and Communities in Early Modern Germany.” American Historical Review (109), no. 2 (2004): 325–59.Google Scholar
Ogilvie, Sheilagh. “Consumption, Social Capital, and the ‘Industrious Revolution’ in Early Modern Germany.” The Journal of Economic History (70), no. 2 (2010): 287–325.Google Scholar
Ogilvie, Sheilagh, and Edwards, J. S. S. “Women and the “Second Serfdom”: Evidence from Early Modern Bohemia.” The Journal of Economic History (60), no. 4 (2000): 961–94.Google Scholar
Ogilvie, Sheilagh, Markus, Küpker, and Janine, Maegraith. “Krämer und ihre Waren im ländlichen Württemberg zwischen 1600 und 1740.” Zeitschrift für Agrargeschichte und Agrarsoziologie (59), no. 2 (2011): 54–75.Google Scholar
Pamuk, Şevket. “The Black Death and the Origins of the ‘Great Divergence’ Across Europe, 1300–1600.” European Review of Economic History (11), no. 3 (2007): 289–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vincente, Pérez Moreda,. “La péninsule Ibérique: I. La population espagnole à l'époque modern (XVIe–XVIIIe siècle).” In Histoire des populations de l'Europe, edited by Bardet, Jean-Pierre and Dupâquier, Jacques, Vol. 1, 463–463. Paris: Fayard, 1997.Google Scholar
Perrin, Charles-Edmond. “Note sur la population de Villeneuve-St Georges au IXe siècle.” Le Moyen Âge 69 (1963): 75–86.Google Scholar
Prior, Mary. “Freedom and Autonomy in England and the Netherlands: Women's Lives and Experience in the Seventeenth Century.” In Women of the Golden Age, edited by Kloek, Els, Teeuwen, Nicole, and Huisman, Marijke, 137–40. Hilversum: Verloren, 1994.Google Scholar
Reher, David S. “Le Monde ibérique: I. L'Espagne.” In Histoire des populations de l'Europe, edited by Bardet, Jean-Pierre and Dupâquier, Jacques, Vol. 2, 533–533. Paris: Fayard, 1997a.Google Scholar
Reher, David S. Perspectives on the Family in Spain: Past and Present. Oxford: Clarendon, 1997b.Google Scholar
Reher, David S. “Family Ties in Western Europe: Persistent Contrasts.” Population and Development Review (24), no. 2 (1998): 203–34.Google Scholar
Reis, Jaime. “Economic Growth, Human Capital Formation, and Consumption in Western Europe Before 1800.” In Living Standards in the Past: New Perspectives on Well-Being in Asia and Europe, edited by Allen, Robert C. Bengtsson, Tommy, and Dribe, Martin, 195–225. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005.Google Scholar
Ruggles, Steven. “The Limitations of English Family Reconstitution: English Population History from Family Reconstitution 1580–1837.” Continuity and Change (14), no. 1 (1999): 105–30.Google Scholar
Ryter, Annamarie. “Die Geschlechtsvormundschaft in der Schweiz: Das Beispiel der Kantone Basel-Landschaft und Basel-Stadt.” In Frauen in der Geschichte des Rechts: von der frühen Neuzeit bis zur Gegenwart, edited by Gerhard, Ute, 494–508. Munich: Beck, 1997.Google Scholar
Skovgaard-Petersen, Vagn. “Literacy in the Nordic Countries 1550–1900: A Comparative Study.” Scandinavian Journal of History 15, no. 1–2 (1990): 1–5.Google Scholar
Smith, Richard M. “Some Reflections on the Evidence of the Origins of the ‘European Marriage Pattern’ in England.” In The Sociology of the Family: New Directions for Britain, edited by Harris, Christopher C. 74–112. Keele: University of Keele, 1979.Google Scholar
Reher, David S. “Relative Prices, Forms of Agrarian Labour, and Female Marriage Patterns in England, 1350–1800.” In Marriage and Rural Economy: Western Europe Since 1400, edited by Devos, Isabelle and Kennedy, Liam, 19–48. Brussels: Brepols, 1999.Google Scholar
Snell, K. D. M. “Agricultural Seasonal Unemployment, the Standard of Living, and Women's Work in the South and East, 1690–1860.” Economic History Review (34), no. 3 (1981): 407–37.Google Scholar
Solar, Peter M. “Poor Relief and English Economic Development Before the Industrial Revolution.” Economic History Review (48), no. 1 (1995): 1–22.Google Scholar
Sonnino, Eugenio. “L'Italie: II. Le tournant du XVIIe siècle.” In Histoire des populations de l'Europe, edited by Bardet, Jean-Pierre and Dupâquier, Jacques, Vol. 1, 496–496. Fayard Paris:, 1997.Google Scholar
Todd, Emmanuel. The Explanation of Ideology: Family Structures and Social Systems. Oxford: Blackwell, 1983.Google Scholar
Ulbrich, Claudia. Shulamit und Margarete: Macht, Geschlecht und Religion in einer ländlichen Gesellschaft des 18. Jahrhunderts. Vienna etc.: Böhlau, 1999.Google Scholar
Van den Heuvel, Danielle. Women and Entrepreneurship: Female Traders in the Northern Netherlands, c. 1580–1815. Amsterdam: Aksant, 2007.Google Scholar
Van den Heuvel, Danielle, and Sheilagh, Ogilvie. “Retail Development in the Consumer Revolution: The Netherlands, c. 1670–c. 1815.” Explorations in Economic History (50), no. 1 (2013): 69–87.Google Scholar
Van Nederveen Meerkerk, Elise. De draad in eigen handen. Vrouwen in loonarbeid in de Nederlandse textielnijverheid, 1581–1810. Amsterdam: Vrije Universiteit, 2006.Google Scholar
Van Nederveen Meerkerk, Elise. “Market Wage or Discrimination? The Remuneration of Male and Female Wool Spinners in the Seventeenth-Century Dutch Republic.” Economic History Review (63), no. 1 (2010): 165–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Zanden, Jan Luiten. “The Malthusian Intermezzo: Women's Wages and Human Capital Formation Between the Late Middle Ages and the Demographic Transition of the Nineteenth Century.” The History of the Family (16), no. 4 (2011): 331–42.Google Scholar
Van Zanden, Jan Luiten, and Bas van, Leeuwen, “Persistent But Not Consistent: The Growth of National Income in Holland, 1347–1807.” Explorations in Economic History (49), no. 2 (2012): 119–30.Google Scholar
Viazzo, Pier Paolo. “What's So Special About the Mediterranean? Thirty Years of Research on Household and Family in Italy.” Continuity and Change (18), no. 1 (2003): 111–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Voigtländer, Nico, and Hans-Joachim, Voth. “Why England? Demographic Factors, Structural Change, and Physical Capital Accumulation During the Industrial Revolution.” Journal of Economic Growth (11), no. 4 (2006): 319–61.Google Scholar
Voigtländer, Nico, and Hans-Joachim, Voth. “How the West ‘Invented’ Fertility Restriction.” American Economic Review (103), no. 6 (2013): 2227–64.Google Scholar
Wang, Feng, Cameron, Campbell, and James, Z. Lee. “Agency, Hierarchies, and Reproduction in Northeastern China, 1749–1840.” In Prudence and Pressure: Reproduction and Human Agency in Europe and Asia, 1700–1900, edited by Tsuya, Noriko O. Wang, Feng, Alter, George, et al. 287–316. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2010.Google Scholar
Weir, David R. “Life Under Pressure: France and England, 1670–1870.” The Journal of Economic History (44), no. 1 (1984): 27–47.Google Scholar
Wiesner, Merry E. Working Women in Renaissance Germany. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1986.Google Scholar
Wiesner, Merry E. “Guilds, Male Bonding, and Women's Work in Early Modern Germany.” Gender & History (1), no. 1 (1989): 125–37.Google Scholar
Wiesner, Merry E. Women and Gender in Early Modern Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.Google Scholar
Wrigley, E. A. “British Population During the ‘Long’ Eighteenth Century, 1680–1840.” In The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Britain, edited by Floud, Roderick and Johnson, Paul, Vol. 1, 57–57. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004.Google Scholar
Wrigley, E. A. and Schofield, R. S. The Population History of England, 1541–1871: A Reconstruction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Dennison and Ogilvie supplementary material

Appendix

Download Dennison and Ogilvie supplementary material(File)
File 132 KB