Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-mp689 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-24T22:42:08.175Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Is the Parti Québécois Bound to Disappear? A Study of the Current Generational Dynamics of Electoral Behaviour in Quebec

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 April 2018

Valérie-Anne Mahéo  and
Éric Bélanger
Valérie-Anne Mahéo*
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal
Éric Bélanger*
Affiliation:
McGill University
*
Department of Political Science, Université de Montréal, succ. Centre-ville, C. P. 6128, Montréal (Québec) H3C 3J7, email: va.maheo@umontreal.ca
Department of Political Science, McGill University, 855 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2T7, email: eric.belanger3@mcgill.ca
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

In Quebec, the setback of the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the last 2014 provincial election testifies of a continuous decline of the party since the 1995 referendum defeat. With now only 25 per cent of vote shares, the question arises: Is the PQ bound to disappear? This article examines the support for the PQ across different generations, and tests explanations for these varying levels of support. The results show that the attitudinal profile of millennials is particularly distinct from that of baby boomers on several dimensions, but that generation X is not so different from the boomers. We demonstrate that the decline of the PQ in 2014 was mostly concentrated among millennials, who were less inclined to see the project of sovereignty as a priority and less likely to support the incumbent PQ government's controversial proposal to adopt a Charter of Quebec Values. We conclude by examining how the results of the study can shed light on the PQ's future prospects.

Résumé

Au Québec, le revers du Parti québécois (PQ) lors de la dernière élection provinciale de 2014 témoigne d'un déclin continu du parti depuis la défaite du référendum de 1995. Avec maintenant seulement 25% des voix, la question se pose: le PQ est-il voué à disparaître? Cet article examine le soutien au Parti québécois parmi les différentes générations et teste différentes explications pour ces niveaux de soutien. Les résultats montrent que le profil attitudinal des milléniaux est particulièrement différent de celui des baby boomers sur plusieurs dimensions, et que la génération X n'est pas si différente des boomers. Nous démontrons que le déclin du PQ en 2014 était principalement concentré dans la génération des milléniaux, qui était moins encline à considérer le projet de souveraineté comme une priorité et qui était aussi moins susceptible d'appuyer la proposition controversée du gouvernement du PQ de l’époque d'adopter une Charte des valeurs québécoises. En conclusion, nous évaluons comment les résultats de l’étude peuvent nous informer sur les perspectives d'avenir du PQ.

Type
Research Article/Étude originale
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 51 , Issue 2 , June 2018 , pp. 335 - 356
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association (l'Association canadienne de science politique) and/et la Société québécoise de science politique 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We thank Scott Matthews, Maurice Pinard, and the two anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article. We are also grateful to the participants of the Canadian Politics section of the 2016 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association and those of the 2016 biannual conference of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship for their comments.

References

Beck, Paul Allen and Jennings, M. Kent. 1982. “Pathways to Participation.” American Political Science Review 76: 94–108.10.1017/S000305540018606XGoogle Scholar
Bélanger, Éric and Pedersen, Eva Falk. 2015. “The 2014 Provincial Election in Quebec.” Canadian Political Science Review 9: 112–20.Google Scholar
Bélanger, Éric and Nadeau, Richard. 2009. Le comportement électoral des Québécois. Montréal: Les Presses de l'Université de Montréal.10.4000/books.pum.9772Google Scholar
Bélanger, Éric, Nadeau, Richard, Henderson, Ailsa, and Hepburn, Eve. 2018. The National Question and Electoral Politics in Quebec and Scotland. Montreal & Kingston: McGill-Queen's University Press.Google Scholar
Bélanger, Éric and Perrella, Andrea M.L.. 2008. “Facteurs d'appui à la souveraineté du Québec chez les jeunes: une comparaison entre francophones, anglophones et allophones.” Politique et sociétés 27: 13–40.Google Scholar
Blais, André and Nadeau, Richard. 1984. “L'appui au Parti québécois: évolution de la clientèle de 1970 à 1981.” In Comportement électoral au Québec, ed. Crête, Jean. Chicoutimi: Gaétan Morin.Google Scholar
Gélineau, François. 2015. “Poids électoral: la revanche de la Génération X.” In L’état du Québec 2015, ed. Institut du Nouveau Monde. Montréal: Del Busso.Google Scholar
Gidengil, Elisabeth, Blais, André, Nevitte, Neil and Nadeau, Richard. 2003. “Turned Off or Tuned Out? Youth Participation in Politics.” Electoral Insight 5: 9–14.Google Scholar
Godbout, Jean-François. 2013. “Les élections au Québec de 1973 à 2012.” In Les Québécois aux urnes, ed. Bastien, Frédérick, Bélanger, Éric and Gélineau, François. Montréal: Les Presses de l'Université de Montréal.Google Scholar
Guay, Jean-Herman. 1997. Avant, pendant et après le boom: portrait de la culture politique de trois générations de Québécois. Sherbrooke: Éditions les Fous du roi.Google Scholar
Guay, Jean-Herman. 2004. “Le Parti québécois: au-delà du conflit et des ambitions.” Options politiques: 18–24.Google Scholar
Hudon, Raymond. 1976. “Les études électorales au Québec: principales orientations et quelques débats.” Recherches sociographiques 17: 283–322.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald F. 2008. “Changing Values among Western Publics from 1970 to 2006.” West European Politics 31: 130–46.Google Scholar
Jennings, M Kent, Stoker, Laura and Bowers, Jake. 2009. “Politics across Generations: Family Transmission Reexamined.” Journal of Politics 71: 782–99.Google Scholar
Jennings, M. Kent. 2002. “Generation Units and the Student Protest Movement in the United States: An Intra- and Intergenerational Analysis.” Political Psychology 23: 303–24.Google Scholar
Jennings, M. Kent and Niemi, Richard G.. 1968. “The transmission of political values from parent to child.” American Political Science Review 62: 169–84.Google Scholar
Johnston, Richard. 1985. “The Reproduction of the Religious Cleavage in Canadian Elections.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 18: 99–113.Google Scholar
Laxer, Emily, Carson, Rachael Dianne and Korteweg, Anna C.. 2014. “Articulating Minority Nationhood: Cultural and Political Dimensions in Quebec's Reasonable Accommodation Debate.” Nations and Nationalism 20: 133–53.Google Scholar
Lemieux, Vincent. 2011. Les partis générationnels au Québec: passé, présent, avenir. Québec: Presses de l'Université Laval.Google Scholar
Maioni, Antonia. 2014. “The Québec Election of 2014 and the Unresolved Challenges of the Parti Québécois.” Quebec Studies 58: 139–52.10.3828/qs.2014.23Google Scholar
Mannheim, Karl. 1952. “The Problem of Generations.” In Essays on the Sociology of Knowledge. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Martin, Pierre. 1994. “Générations politiques, rationalité économique et appui à la souveraineté au Québec.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 27: 345–59.Google Scholar
McRoberts, Kenneth and Posgate, Dale. 1983. Développement et modernisation du Québec. Montréal: Boréal Express.Google Scholar
Melançon, Jérôme. 2015. “Liberty, Equality, Laicity: Quebec's Charter of Values and the Reframing of Politics.” Canadian Political Science Review 9: 35–71.Google Scholar
Mendelsohn, Matthew, Parkin, Andrew, and Pinard, Maurice. 2007. “A New Chapter or the Same Old Story? Public Opinion in Quebec from 1996–2003.” In Quebec and Canada in the New Century: New Dynamics, New Opportunities, ed. Murphy, Michael. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press. 25–52.Google Scholar
Montigny, Éric. 2011. Leadership et militantisme au Parti québécois. Québec: Presses de l'Université Laval.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard and Bélanger, Éric. 2013. “Un modèle général d'explication du vote des Québécois.” In Les Québécois aux urnes, ed. Bastien, Frédérick, Bélanger, Éric and Gélineau, François. Montréal: Les Presses de l'Université de Montréal.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Guérin, Daniel and Martin, Pierre. 1995. “L'effondrement du Parti progressiste-conservateur à l’élection de 1993.” Revue québécoise de science politique: 123–48.Google Scholar
Neundorf, Anja, Smets, Kaat and Garcia-Albacete, Gema. 2013. “Homemade Citizens: The Development of Political Interest During Adolescence and Young Adulthood.” Acta Politica 48: 92–116.10.1057/ap.2012.23Google Scholar
Pétry, François. 2013. “Le positionnement des partis dans l'espace politique québécois.” In Les Québécois aux urnes, ed. Bastien, Frédérick, Bélanger, Éric and Gélineau, François. Montréal: Les Presses de l'Université de Montréal.Google Scholar
Pinard, Maurice, Bernier, Robert and Lemieux, Vincent. 1997. Un combat inachevé. Sainte-Foy: Presses de l'Université du Québec.Google Scholar
Piroth, Scott. 2004. “Generational Replacement, Value Shifts, and Support for a Sovereign Quebec.” Quebec Studies: 23–44.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert D. 2000. Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Tanguay, Brian A. 2007. “The Stalled Realignment: Quebec's Party System after the 2003 Provincial Election.” In Quebec and Canada in the New Century: New Dynamics, New Opportunities, ed. Murphy, Michael. Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press.Google Scholar
Tessier, Charles and Montigny, Éric. 2016. “Untangling Myths and Facts: Who Supported the Québec Charter of Values?” French Politics 14: 272–85.10.1057/fp.2016.1Google Scholar
Yale, François, and Durand, Claire. 2011. “What Did Quebeckers Want? Impact of Question Wording, Constitutional Proposal and Context on Support for Sovereignty, 1976–2008.” American Review of Canadian Studies 41: 242–58.Google Scholar
Zukin, Cliff, Keeter, Scott, Andolina, Molly, Jenkins, Krista and Delli Carpini, Michael X.. 2006. A New Engagement? Political Participation, Civic Life, and the Changing American Citizen. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Mahéo and Bélanger supplementary material

Web Appendix

Download Mahéo and Bélanger supplementary material(File)
File 26.8 KB