Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-jr42d Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-17T11:50:38.542Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Star Search: Do Elections Help Nondemocratic Regimes Identify New Leaders?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 January 2016

Edmund Malesky  and
Paul Schuler
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

A commonly proffered theory to explain the use of elections in authoritarian regimes is that they help identify talented young leaders who can be groomed for leadership positions. Unfortunately, due to the difficulties of obtaining data in authoritarian settings, this hypothesis has not been tested satisfactorily. We examine candidate-level data from the 2007 Vietnamese National Assembly (VNA) election and subsequent selection of candidates for top positions within the VNA and for top ministry positions. We find no evidence that vote share is associated with promotion to leadership positions in the VNA and only limited evidence for vote share association with ministerial posts. Instead, the results indicate that leadership selection takes place within the party rather than through elections. Furthermore, behavior within the assembly suggests that those who were chosen may have been selected based on their loyalty or at least pliancy to the party elites.

Keywords

Vietnam, electionsauthoritarianco-optationNational Assemblytalent selectionpolitical developmentelectoral competitivenessloyaltyparty strength
Type
Articles
Information
Journal of East Asian Studies , Volume 13 , Issue 1 , April 2013 , pp. 35 - 68
Copyright
Copyright © East Asia Institute 

References

Boix, Carles, and Svolik, Milan. 2007. “Non-tyrannical Autocracies.” Manuscript.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles, and Svolik, Milan. 2011. “The Foundations of Limited Authoritarian Government: Institutions and Power-sharing in Dictatorships,” September 24. http://ssrn.com/abstract=1352065 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1352065.Google Scholar
Thanh, Bùi Ngọc. 2007. “Nhũng kềt quả chủ yều của cuộc bầu củ đại biểu Quốc hội khòa XII.” Tạp chí Công sản 10:130. www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/details.asp?Object=17556103&news_ID=30539481 (accessed July 19, 2010).Google Scholar
Thanh, Bùi Ngọc. 2009. “Về việc sủa đổi, bể sung Luật Bầu củ đại biểu Quốc hội.” Tạp Chí Nghiên Cúu Lập Pháp , December 10, 160.Google Scholar
Carey, John. 2008. Legislative Voting and Accountability. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hải, Đỗ Ngỗc. 2009. “Về tiêu chí đại biểu Quốc hội trong điều kiện Việt Nam là thành viên WTO.” Tạp Chí Nghiên Cúu Lập Pháp, December 10, 160.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 1999. “Electoral Accountability and the Control of Politicians: Selecting Good Types Versus Sanctioning Poor Performance.” In Democracy, Accountability, and Representation, ed. Przeworski, Adam, Stokes, Susan, and Manin, Bernard, 55–97. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Fforde, Adam, and de Vylder, Stefan. 1996. From Plan to Market: The Economic Transition in Vietnam. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.Google Scholar
Firth, David. 1993. “Bias Reduction of Maximum Likelihood Estimates.” Biometrika 80, 1: 27–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gainsborough, Martin. 2005. “Party Control: Electoral Campaigning in Vietnam in the Run-up to the May 2002 National Assembly Elections.” Pacific Affairs 78, 1: 57–75.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Lust-Okar, Ellen. 2009. “Elections Under Authoritarianism.” Annual Review of Political Scienc. 12: 403–422.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Przeworski, Adam. 2006. “Cooperation, Cooptation, and Rebellion Under Dictatorships.” Economics and Politics 18, 1: 1–26.Google Scholar
Gandhi, Jennifer, and Przeworski, Adam. 2007. “Authoritarian Institutions and the Survival of Autocrats.” Comparative Political Studies 40, 1: 1279–1301.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 1999. “Authoritarian Breakdown: Empirical Test of a Game Theoretic Argument.” Paper presented for the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta.Google Scholar
Geddes, Barbara. 2006. “Why Parties and Elections in Authoritarian Regimes.” Revised version of paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., August 2005.Google Scholar
Gillespie, John. 2008. “Localizing Global Rules: Public Participation in Lawmaking in Vietnam.” Law and Social Inquiry 33, 3: 673–707.Google Scholar
Harrington, Joanna, McDorman, Ted, and Neilson, William. 1998. “The 1992 Vietnamese Constitution: Economic Reform, Political Continuity.” In Asia-Pacific Legal Development, ed. Johnston, Douglas and Ferguson, Gerry, 243–266. Vancouver: UBC Press.Google Scholar
Heinze, Georg, and Schemper, Michael. 2002. “A Solution to the Problem of Seperation in Logistic Regression.” Statistics in Medicine 21, 16: 2409–2419.Google Scholar
Khánh, Hồng. 2007. “Sẽ giảm thành viên Chính phủ là đại biểu Quốc hội” [The National Assembly will reduce the delegates from the government]. VnExpress , February 23. http://vnexpress.net/Vietnam/Xa-hoi/2007/02/3B9F3731/ (accessed November 9, 2007).Google Scholar
Huntington, Samuel. 1991. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
Koh, David. 2006. Wards of Hanoi. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.Google Scholar
Lockhart, Greg. 1997. “Mass Mobilization in Contemporary Vietnam.” Asian Studies Review 21, 2: 174–179.Google Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2006. Voting for Autocracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malesky, Edmund. 2008. “Straight Ahead on Red: How Foreign Direct Investment Empowers Subnational Leaders.” Journal of Politics 70, 1: 97–119.Google Scholar
Malesky, Edmund, and Schuler, Paul. 2009. “Paint-by-Numbers Democracy: The Stakes, Structure, and Results of the 2007 Vietnamese National Assembly Election.” Journal of Vietnamese Studies 4, 1: 1–48.Google Scholar
Malesky, Edmund, and Schuler, Paul. 2010. “Nodding or Needling: Analyzing Delegate Responsiveness in an Authoritarian Parliament.” American Political Science Review 104, 3 (August): 1–21.Google Scholar
Malesky, Edmund, and Schuler, Paul. 2011. “The Single-party Dictator's Dilemma: Information in Elections Without Opposition.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 36, 4: 491–530.Google Scholar
Manin, Bernard, Przeworski, Adam, and Stokes, Susan. 1999. “Introduction.” In Democracy, Accountability, and Representation, ed. Przeworski, Adam, Stokes, Susan, and Manin, Bernard, 1–26. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mydans, Seth. 2010. “Vietnam, Quelling Dissent, Gives 4 Democracy Advocates Jail Terms.” New York Times, January 20.Google Scholar
Dung, Nguyễn Đăng. 2007. Ý Tuỏng: Về Một Nhà Nuóc Chịu Trách Nhiệm. Nhà Xuất Bản Đa Nẵng. Da Nẵng.Google Scholar
Phuong, Nguyễn Thị. 2010. “Có nên bằng cấp hóa tiêu chuẩn đại biểu Quốc hội?” Tạp Chí Nghiên Cúu Lập Pháp 167 (March 20): 6.Google Scholar
Văn An, Nguyễn. 2007. “Thục hành dàn chủ trong hoạt động của Quốc hội” [Realizing democracy in the activity of the National Assembly]. Vietnamnet (March 20). www.vietnamnet.vn/chinhtri/doinoi/2007/03/675344/ (accessed January 11, 2010).Google Scholar
Nhân Dân. 2007. “Tăng đại biểu chuyên trách, giảm đại biểu là thành viên Chính phủ” [The National Assembly will increase the full-time delegates and decrease the government delegates], February 24. Nguòi Đại Biểu. www.nguoidaibieu.com.vn/Trangchu/VN/tabid/66/CatID/1/ContentID/8155/Default.aspx (accessed November 25, 2007).Google Scholar
Pennings, Paul, and Hazan, Reuven. 2001. “Democratizing Candidate Selection: Causes and Consequences.” Party Politics 7, 3: 267–275.Google Scholar
Pitkin, Hannah. 1967. The Concept of Representation. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reuter, Ora John, and Turovsky, Rostislav. 2011. “Dominant Party Rule and Legislative Leadership in Authoritarian Regimes.” SSRN. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1972859 (accessed September 21, 2012).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salomon, Mathieu. 2007. “Power and Representation at the Vietnamese National Assembly: The Scope and Limits of Political Doi Moi.” In Vietnam's New Order, ed. Balme, Stephanie and Sidel, Mark, 198–216. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Sartori, Giovanni. 1976. Parties and Party Systems: Volume 1. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Shih, Victor, Adolph, Christopher, and Liu, Mingxing. 2012. “Getting Ahead in the Communist Party: Explaining the Advancement of Central Committee Members in China. American Political Science Review 106, 1: 166–187.Google Scholar
Thayer, Carlyle. 2010. “Political Legitimacy in Vietnam: Challenge and Response.” Politics and Policy 38, 3: 423–444.Google Scholar
Vasavakul, Thaveeporn. 2002. “Rebuilding Authority Relations: Public Administration in the Era of Doi Moi.” Manila: Asian Development Bank.Google Scholar
Vietnam Development Report. 2010. “Modern Institutions.” A Joint Donor Report to the Vietnam Consultative Group Meeting, December 2–4, 2009. www.presscenter.org.vn/en//images/WBreport2010.pdf (accessed July 20, 2010).Google Scholar
Văan Nhiêm, V~T. 2010. “Bàn thêm về chủ đề ‘Có nén bằang cấp hóa tiêu chuẩan đai biểu Quốoc hội?’” Tạp Chí Nghiên Cúu Lập Pháp. www.nclp.org.vn/ban-doc-viet/ban-them-ve-chu-111e-201cco-nen-bang-cap-hoa-tieu-chuan-111ai-bieu-quoc-hoi-201d.Google Scholar