Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-cfpbc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-16T07:25:05.125Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Hungry for Change: Urban Bias and Autocratic Sovereign Default

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 January 2016

Get access

Abstract

What drives autocrats to default on their sovereign debt? This article develops the first theory of sovereign debt default in autocracies that explicitly investigates survival incentives of political actors in nondemocracies. Self-interested elites, fearful of threats to their tenure because of urban unrest, may be willing to endure the long-term borrowing costs that defaulting creates rather than risk the short-term survival costs of removing cheap food policies for urban consumers. I test my main claims that both urbanization and food imports should be associated with greater likelihood of autocratic default using panel data covering forty-three countries over fifty years, finding that autocracies that are more reliant on imported food and that are more urbanized are significantly more likely to be in default on their external sovereign debt. I emphasize the regime-contingent nature of these effects by demonstrating that they are reversed when considering democratic sovereign default. I also substantiate the mechanisms put forward in my theory through illustrative historical cases of sovereign debt default in Zambia and Peru, in which I demonstrate that fear of urban unrest in the face of rapidly increasing food prices did indeed drive autocratic elites to default on international debt obligations. In addition to providing the first political theory of debt default in autocracies, the article introduces two robust predictors of autocratic default that have been overlooked in previous work, and highlights the importance of urban-rural dynamics in nondemocratic regimes.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James A.. 2006. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ballard-Rosa, Cameron. 2015. Reap What You Sow: Agricultural Bias and the Electoral Politics of Democratic Sovereign Default. Unpublished working paper, Yale University, New Haven, CT.Google Scholar
Bandiera, Luca, Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, and Vincelette, Gallina Andronova. 2010. Unpleasant Surprises: Sovereign Default Determinants and Prospects. Working Paper 5401. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Bates, Robert H. 1981. Markets and States in Tropical Africa: the Political Basis of Agricultural Policies. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Bates, Robert H., and Block, Steven. 2011. Political Institutions and Agricultural Trade Interventions in Africa. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93 (2):317–23.Google Scholar
Beaulieu, Emily, Cox, Gary W., and Saiegh, Sebastian. 2012. Sovereign Debt and Regime Type: Reconsidering the Democratic Advantage. International Organization 66 (4):709–38.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, Katz, Jonathan N., and Tucker, Richard. 1998. Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science 42 (4):1260–88.Google Scholar
Beckerman, P. 1988. Austerity, External Debt and Capital Formation in Peru. Working Paper 78. Boston: Boston University, Center for Latin American Development Studies.Google Scholar
Boone, Catherine, and Wahman, Michael. 2013. Gaming the System: Unequal Representation and Rural Bias in African Single Member District Elections. Paper presented at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August, Chicago.Google Scholar
Bulow, Jeremy, and Kenneth, Rogoff. 1989. Sovereign Debt: Is to Forgive to Forget? American Economic Review 79 (1):4350.Google Scholar
Callaghy, Thomas M. 1990. Lost Between State and Market: The Politics of Economic Adjustment in Ghana, Zambia, and Nigeria. In Economic Crisis and Policy Choice: The Politics of Adjustment in the Third World, edited by Joan Nelson, 257319. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Cheibub, José A., Jennifer, Gandhi, and Vreeland, James R.. 2010. Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited. Public Choice 143 (1–2):67101.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W. 2011a. Sovereign Debt, Political Stability and Bargaining Efficiency. Unpublished working paper. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W. 2011b. War, Moral Hazard, and Ministerial Responsibility: England After the Glorious Revolution. Journal of Economic History 71 (1):133–61.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W. 2012. Was the Glorious Revolution a Constitutional Watershed? Journal of Economic History 72 (3):567600.Google Scholar
Davis, Christina L. 2003. Food Fights over Free Trade: How International Institutions Promote Agricultural Trade Liberalization. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
De Paoli, Bianca, Hoggarth, Glenn, and Saporta, Victoria. 2006. Costs of Sovereign Default. Financial Stability Paper 1. London: Bank of England.Google Scholar
Dincecco, Mark. 2011. Political Transformations and Public Finances: Europe, 1650–1913. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Dunning, Thad. 2008. Crude Democracy: Natural Resource Wealth and Political Regimes. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eaton, Jonathan; and Gersovitz, Mark. 1981. Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. Review of Economic Studies 48 (2):289309.Google Scholar
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). 2014. FAOSTAT: Trade Indices. New York: United Nations. Available at <http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/T/TP/E>. Accessed 6 January 2014..+Accessed+6+January+2014.>Google Scholar
Haggard, Stephan, and Kaufman, Robert R.. 2012. Inequality and Regime Change: Democratic Transitions and the Stability of Democratic Rule. American Political Science Review 106 (03):495516.Google Scholar
Harding, Robin. 2010. Democracy, Urbanization, and Rural Bias: Explaining Urban/Rural Differences in Incumbent Support Across Africa. Working Paper 120. Afrobarometer.Google Scholar
Hendrix, Cullen, and Haggard, Stephan. 2014. International Food Prices, Regime Type, and Protest in the Developing World. Unpublished working paper. La Jolla: University of California San Diego.Google Scholar
Herbst, Jeffrey. 1990. The Structural Adjustment of Politics in Africa. World Development 18 (7):949–58.Google Scholar
Heston, Alan, Summers, Robert, and Aten, Bettina. 2012. Penn World Table Version 7.1. Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania. Available at <https://pwt.sas.upenn.edu/>. Accessed 23 April 2013..+Accessed+23+April+2013.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1971a. Peru—Recent Economic Developments (13 April). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1971/SM/169619.PDF>. Accessed 21 February 2014..+Accessed+21+February+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1971b. Peru—Staff Report for the 1970 Article VIII Consultation (6 April). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1971/SM/211338.PDF >. Accessed 21 February 2014..+Accessed+21+February+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1973. Peru—Staff Report for the 1973 Article VIII Consultation (6 December). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1973/SM/170577.PDF >. Accessed 5 March 2014..+Accessed+5+March+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1974a. Peru—Recent Economic Developments (2 December). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1974/SM/171096.PDF >. Accessed 6 March 2014..+Accessed+6+March+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1974b. Peru—Staff Report for the 1974 Article VIII Consultation (11 November). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1974/SM/215482.PDF>. Accessed 6 March 2014..+Accessed+6+March+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1975. Peru—Exchange System (3 October). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1975/EBS/230370.PDF>. Accessed 7 March 2014..+Accessed+7+March+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1976a. Minutes of Executive Board Meeting 76/108 (23 July). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1976/EBM/180299.PDF>. Accessed: 11 March 2014..+Accessed:+11+March+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1976b. Peru—Recent Economic Developments (24 February). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1976/SM/287109.PDF>. Accessed 11 March 2014..+Accessed+11+March+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1976c. Peru—Use of Fund Resources (19 February). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1976/EBS/231008.PDF>. Accessed: 7 March 2014..+Accessed:+7+March+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1976d. Zambia—Request for Stand-by Arrangement (12 July). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1976/EBS/230891.PDF>. Accessed: 16 January 2014..+Accessed:+16+January+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1977a. Peru—Request for Stand-By Arrangement (28 October). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1977/EBS/236434.PDF>. Accessed 24 March 2014..+Accessed+24+March+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1977b. Zambia—Recent Economic Developments (15 February). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1977/SM/172851.PDF>. Accessed 5 February 2014..+Accessed+5+February+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1978a. Minutes of Executive Board Meeting 78/149 (15 September). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1978/EBM/179889.PDF>. Accessed 18 March 2014..+Accessed+18+March+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1978b. Peru—Request for Stand-by Arrangement (18 August). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1978/EBS/236959.PDF>. Accessed 17 March 2014..+Accessed+17+March+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1979. Minutes of Executive Board Meeting 79/166 (29 October). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1979/EBM/177597.PDF>. Accessed 11 February 2014..+Accessed+11+February+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1981. Minutes of Executive Board Meeting 81/143 (18 November). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1981/EBM/178000.PDF>. Accessed 12 February 2014..+Accessed+12+February+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1983. Minutes of Executive Board Meeting 83/63 (18 April). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1983/EBM/103880.PDF>. Accessed 13 February 2014..+Accessed+13+February+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1984. Minutes of Executive Board Meeting 84/169 (26 November). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1984/EBM/102048.PDF>. Accessed 14 February 2014..+Accessed+14+February+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1985. Minutes of Executive Board Meeting 85/158 (30 October). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1985/EBM/99518.PDF>. Accessed 14 February 2014..+Accessed+14+February+2014.>Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (IMF). 1987. Minutes of Executive Board Meeting 87/14 (23 January). Washington, DC: IMF. Available at <http://adlib.imf.org/digital_assets/wwwopac.ashx?command=getcontent&server=webdocs&value=EB/1987/EBM/234758.PDF>. Accessed 14 February 2014..+Accessed+14+February+2014.>Google Scholar
King, Gary, Honaker, James, Joseph, Anne, and Scheve, Kenneth. 2001. Analyzing Incomplete Political Science Data: An Alternative Algorithm for Multiple Imputation. American Political Science Review 95 (1):4969.Google Scholar
King, Gary, Tomz, Michael, and Wittenberg, Jason. 2000. Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44 (2):347–61.Google Scholar
Kohlscheen, Emanuel. 2010. Sovereign Risk: Constitutions Rule. Oxford Economic Papers 62 (1):6285.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kraay, Aart, and Nehru, Vikram. 2006. When Is External Debt Sustainable? World Bank Economic Review 20 (3):341–65.Google Scholar
Krueger, Anne O. 1996. Political Economy of Agricultural Policy. Public Choice 87 (1):163–75.Google Scholar
Krueger, Anne O., Schiff, Maurice, and Valdes, Alberto. 1988. Agricultural Incentives in Developing Countries: Measuring the Effect of Sectoral and Economywide Policies. World Bank Economic Review 2 (3):255–71.Google Scholar
Krueger, Anne O., Schiff, Maurice, and Valdes, Alberto. 1991. The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Policy. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Lee, David R., and Ndulo, Muna, eds. 2011. The Food and Financial Crises in Sub-Saharan Africa: Origins, Impacts and Policy Implications. Herndon, VA: CABI Publishing.Google Scholar
Lipton, Michael. 1977. Why Poor People Stay Poor: A Study of Urban Bias in World Development. London: Temple Smith.Google Scholar
Lombard, C.S., and Tweedie, A.H.C.. 1974. Agriculture in Zambia Since Independence. Lusaka, Zambia: Neczam.Google Scholar
Loxley, John. 1990. Structural Adjustment in Africa: Reflections on Ghana and Zambia. Review of African Political Economy 17 (47):827.Google Scholar
North, Douglass C., and Weingast, Barry R.. 1989. Constitutions and Commitment: The Evolution of Institutions Governing Public Choice in Seventeenth-century England. Journal of Economic History 49 (4):803–32.Google Scholar
Oatley, Thomas. 2004. Why Is Stabilization Sometimes Delayed? Reevaluating the Regime Type Hypothesis. Comparative Political Studies 37 (3):286312.Google Scholar
Oatley, Thomas. 2010. Political Institutions and Foreign Debt in the Developing World. International Studies Quarterly 54 (1):175–95.Google Scholar
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Rogoff, Kenneth S.. 2009. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Rogoff, Kenneth S.. 2010. Growth in a Time of Debt. Working Paper 15639. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Reinhart, Carmen M., Rogoff, Kenneth S., and Savastano, Miguel A.. 2003. Debt Intolerance. Working Paper 9908. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.Google Scholar
Rudolph, James D. 1992. Peru: The Evolution of a Crisis. Westport, CT: Praeger.Google Scholar
Saiegh, Sebastian M. 2009. Coalition Governments and Sovereign Debt Crises. Economics and Politics 21 (2):232–54.Google Scholar
Schultz, T.W. 1978. Distortions of Agricultural Incentives. Bloomington: Indiana University Press.Google Scholar
Sen, Amartya. 1999. Development as Freedom. Cambridge, UK: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Smith, Clifford T. 1988. Population and Development in Peru. London: John Murray.Google Scholar
Stasavage, David. 2003. Public Debt and the Birth of the Democratic State: France and Great Britain, 1688–1789. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Stasavage, David. 2005. Democracy and Education Spending in Africa. American Journal of Political Science 49 (2):343–58.Google Scholar
Stasavage, David. 2010. When Distance Mattered: Geographic Scale and the Development of European Representative Assemblies. American Political Science Review 104 (4):625–43.Google Scholar
Stasavage, David. 2011. States of Credit: Size, Power, and the Development of European Polities. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Stone, Randall W. 2004. The Political Economy of IMF Lending in Africa. American Political Science Review 98 (4):577–91.Google Scholar
Stone, Randall W. 2008. The Scope of IMF Conditionality. International Organization 62 (4): 589620.Google Scholar
Svolik, Milan W. 2012. The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Thorp, Rosemary. 1991. Economic Management and Economic Development in Peru and Colombia. Pittsburgh, PA: University of Pittsburgh Press.Google Scholar
Tomz, M. 2002. Democratic Default: Domestic Audiences and Compliance with International Agreements. Unpublished working paper. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University.Google Scholar
Tomz, M. 2004. Voter Sophistication and Domestic Preferences Regarding Debt Default. Unpublished working paper. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University.Google Scholar
Tomz, M. 2007. Reputation and International Cooperation: Sovereign Debt Across Three Centuries. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael, Wittenberg, Jason, and King, Gary. 2003. CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results. Journal of Statistical Software 8(1):130.Google Scholar
Tomz, Michael, and Wright, Mark L.J.. 2013. Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default. Annual Review of Economics 5 (1):247–72.Google Scholar
Van Rijckeghem, Caroline, and Weder, Beatrice. 2009. Political Institutions and Debt Crises. Public Choice 138 (3–4):387408.Google Scholar
Varshney, Ashutosh. 1998. Democracy, Development, and the Countryside: Urban-rural Struggles in India. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Vreeland, James Raymond. 2006. The International Monetary Fund (IMF): Politics of Conditional Lending. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Wallace, Jeremy. 2010. Political Economy of Crisis: Exogenous Shocks and Redistribution in Autocracies. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, August, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Wallace, Jeremy. 2013. Cities, Redistribution, and Authoritarian Regime Survival. Journal of Politics 75 (3):632–45.Google Scholar
Walton, John. 1989. Debt, Protest, and the State in Latin America. In Power and Popular Protest: Latin American Social Movements, edited by Eckstein, Susan and Antonio, Manuel Merino, Garretón, 299398. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Walton, John, and Seddon, David. 2008. Free Markets and Food Riots: The Politics of Global Adjustment. New York: Wiley-Blackwell.Google Scholar
World Bank. 2013. World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available at <http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/variableSelection/selectvariables.aspx?source=world-development-indicators>. Accessed 10 March 2013..+Accessed+10+March+2013.>Google Scholar
World Bank. 2014. GEM Commodities. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available at <http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/commodity-price-data>. Accessed 11 January 2014..+Accessed+11+January+2014.>Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Ballard-Rosa supplementary material

Ballard-Rosa supplementary material 1

Download Ballard-Rosa supplementary material(File)
File 7.1 MB