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We consider a sequential two-party bargaining game with uncertain information transmission. When the first mover states her demand she does only know the probability with which the second mover will be informed about it. The informed second mover can either accept or reject the offer and payoffs are determined as in the ultimatum game. Otherwise the uninformed second mover states his own demand and payoffs are determined as in the Nash demand game. In the experiment we vary the commonly known probability of information transmission. Our main finding is that first movers’ and uninformed second movers’ demands adjust to this probability as qualitatively predicted, that is, first movers’ (uninformed second movers’) demands are lower (higher) the lower the probability of information transmission.
The hippocampal formation represents a key region in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Aerobic exercise poses a promising add-on treatment to potentially counteract structural impairments of the hippocampal formation and associated symptomatic burden. However, current evidence regarding exercise effects on the hippocampal formation in schizophrenia is largely heterogeneous. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the impact of aerobic exercise on total hippocampal formation volume. Additionally, we used data from a recent multicenter randomized-controlled trial to examine the effects of aerobic exercise on hippocampal formation subfield volumes and their respective clinical implications.
Methods
The meta-analysis comprised six studies that investigated the influence of aerobic exercise on total hippocampal formation volume compared to a control condition with a total of 186 people with schizophrenia (100 male, 86 female), while original data from 29 patients (20 male, 9 female) was considered to explore effects of six months of aerobic exercise on hippocampal formation subfield volumes.
Results
Our meta-analysis did not demonstrate a significant effect of aerobic exercise on total hippocampal formation volume in people with schizophrenia (g = 0.33 [−0.12 to 0.77]), p = 0.15), but our original data suggested significant volume increases in certain hippocampal subfields, namely the cornu ammonis and dentate gyrus.
Conclusions
Driven by the necessity of better understanding the pathophysiology of schizophrenia, the present work underlines the importance to focus on hippocampal formation subfields and to characterize subgroups of patients that show neuroplastic responses to aerobic exercise accompanied by corresponding clinical improvements.
The number of hospitalized patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) does not differentiate between patients admitted due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (ie, primary cases) and incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection (ie, incidental cases). We developed an adaptable method to distinguish primary cases from incidental cases upon hospital admission.
Design:
Retrospective cohort study.
Setting:
Data were obtained from 3 German tertiary-care hospitals.
Patients:
The study included patients of all ages who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by a standard quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay upon admission between January and June 2022.
Methods:
We present 2 distinct models: (1) a point-of-care model that can be used shortly after admission based on a limited range of parameters and (2) a more extended point-of-care model based on parameters that are available within the first 24–48 hours after admission. We used regression and tree-based classification models with internal and external validation.
Results:
In total, 1,150 patients were included (mean age, 49.5±28.5 years; 46% female; 40% primary cases). Both point-of-care models showed good discrimination with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.80 and 0.87, respectively. As main predictors, we used admission diagnosis codes (ICD-10-GM), ward of admission, and for the extended model, we included viral load, need for oxygen, leucocyte count, and C-reactive protein.
Conclusions:
We propose 2 predictive algorithms based on routine clinical data that differentiate primary COVID-19 from incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. These algorithms can provide a precise surveillance tool that can contribute to pandemic preparedness. They can easily be modified to be used in future pandemic, epidemic, and endemic situations all over the world.
Globally, forests are net carbon sinks that partly mitigates anthropogenic climate change. However, there is evidence of increasing weather-induced tree mortality, which needs to be better understood to improve forest management under future climate conditions. Disentangling drivers of tree mortality is challenging because of their interacting behavior over multiple temporal scales. In this study, we take a data-driven approach to the problem. We generate hourly temperate weather data using a stochastic weather generator to simulate 160,000 years of beech, pine, and spruce forest dynamics with a forest gap model. These data are used to train a generative deep learning model (a modified variational autoencoder) to learn representations of three-year-long monthly weather conditions (precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation) in an unsupervised way. We then associate these weather representations with years of high biomass loss in the forests and derive weather prototypes associated with such years. The identified prototype weather conditions are associated with 5–22% higher median biomass loss compared to the median of all samples, depending on the forest type and the prototype. When prototype weather conditions co-occur, these numbers increase to 10–25%. Our research illustrates how generative deep learning can discover compounding weather patterns associated with extreme impacts.
The influence of Cu(II) on the hydrothermal and thermal transformations of a synthetic hectorite was investigated by a combined approach using mainly X-ray diffraction, thermal analyses, and electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy. The presence of Cu(II) during hydrothermal treatment increased the crystallite size. Copper (II) was both structure-bound and associated with the inner surfaces of the particles. Upon heating, structural destabilization of the hectorite began at ∼400°C as indicated by the formation of free radicals. Between 600 and 700°C, the hectorite converted to enstatite, and in the presence of Cu(II), to enstatite and richterite. The formation of richterite as an additional conversion product is explained by the creation of structural weakness due to structure-bound Cu(II) in F-containing hectorite. Our results suggest that traces of Cu(II), typical of natural environments, may influence the conversion products in high-temperature geochemical systems.
Inpatient equivalent home treatment (IEHT), implemented in Germany since 2018, is a specific form of home treatment. Between 2021 and 2022, IEHT was compared to inpatient psychiatric treatment in a 12-months follow-up quasi-experimental study with two propensity score matched cohorts in 10 psychiatric centers in Germany. This article reports results on the treatment during the acute episode and focuses on involvement in decision-making, patient satisfaction, and drop-out rates.
Methods
A total of 200 service users receiving IEHT were compared with 200 matched statistical “twins” in standard inpatient treatment. Premature termination of treatment as well as reasons for this was assessed using routine data and a questionnaire. In addition, we measured patient satisfaction with care with a specific scale. For the evaluation of patient involvement in treatment decisions, we used the 9-item Shared Decision Making Questionnaire (SDM-Q-9).
Results
Patients were comparable in both groups with regard to sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Mean length-of-stay was 37 days for IEHT and 28 days for inpatient treatment. In both groups, a similar proportion of participants stopped treatment prematurely. At the end of the acute episode, patient involvement in decision-making (SDM-Q-9) as well as treatment satisfaction scores were significantly higher for IEHT patients compared to inpatients.
Conclusions
Compared to inpatient care, IEHT treatment for acute psychiatric episodes was associated with higher treatment satisfaction and more involvement in clinical decisions.
To identify associations between demographics, social determinants of health, health conditions, and reported history of insomnia. A cross-sectional study including 11,960 adult community members recruited through HealthStreet, a community outreach program at University of Florida.
Methods:
Health assessments were conducted via interviews. Participants reported their demographic background, level of social support, history of health conditions, and insomnia. Logistic regression was used to understand associations between risk factors and history of insomnia.
Results:
The prevalence of self-reported insomnia was 27.3%. Adults aged ≥ 65 years (OR = 1.16) and women (OR = 1.18) reported higher rates of insomnia than their counterparts. Black/African American individuals reported lower rates of insomnia (OR = 0.72) than White individuals. Individuals with food insecurity (OR = 1.53), a military history (OR = 1.30), lower social support (OR = 1.24), living alone (OR = 1.14), anxiety (OR = 2.33), cardiometabolic disease (OR = 1.58), and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (OR = 1.44) were significantly more likely to endorse insomnia compared with their counterparts. Depression (OR = 2.57) had the strongest association with insomnia.
Conclusions:
This study provides evidence regarding who is at greater risk for insomnia among a large community-based sample. Our findings highlight the importance of screening for insomnia, particularly among patients who experience food insecurity, are military veterans, have anxiety, depression, ADHD, or cardiometabolic disease, as well as those who live alone or have lower levels of social support. Future public health campaigns should provide education on insomnia symptoms, treatments, and evidenced-based sleep-promotion strategies.
Plant-based, i.e. vegetarian (without meat and fish) or vegan (exclusively plant-based foods) diets are in trend also among children and adolescents, but data on food intake in this group are lacking. Here, we compare the consumption of food groups of vegetarian (n 145), vegan (n 110) and omnivore (n 135) children and adolescents (6–18 years) in Germany using data of the VeChi Youth Study. Each food item reported in 3 d weighed dietary records was assigned to one of eighteen food groups and individual mean intake per day (g/MJ) was calculated. Group differences were assessed using covariance analyses adjusted for age, sex and other covariates. For food groups with a high number of non-consumers, non-parametric Kruskal–Wallis tests were run. Pairwise comparison of vegetarian and vegan groups indicated significantly higher intakes of legumes, nuts, milk alternatives (all P = 0·0003) and meat alternatives (P = 0·0065) among vegan subjects. Intake of these food groups of omnivore participants was low (Q3:0·0 g/MJ for legumes, milk alternatives and meat alternatives, 0·5 g/MJ for nuts). Dairy intake of vegetarians (11·6 g/MJ) was significantly lower than of omnivore subjects (24·7 g/MJ) (P = 0·0003). Intake of fats/oils and sweet foods was lowest in vegan compared with vegetarian and omnivore participants (P< 0·05). Whole grain intake was higher in vegan participants (14·5 g/MJ) than of vegetarian (9·1 g/MJ) and omnivore (6·5 g/MJ) participants (P = 0·0003). Longitudinal studies are necessary to evaluate the long-term health consequences of vegetarian, vegan and omnivore food patterns, especially in childhood and adolescence.
The overall trend of rapid retreat of Alpine glaciers contains considerable variability of responses at the scale of individual glaciers. As a step towards a regional assessment of glacier state that allows a detailed differentiation of single glaciers, we explore the potential of a self-organizing maps (SOM) algorithm to identify and cluster recurring patterns of thickness change at glaciers in western Austria. Using digital elevation models and glacier inventories for three time periods, we compute the frequency distribution of surface elevation change over the area of each glacier in the data set, for each period. The results of the SOM clustering show a distinct pattern shift over time: From 1969 to 1997, surface elevation change occurred at relatively uniform rates across a given glacier. Since 1997, the distribution of surface elevation change at individual glaciers has been far less uniform, indicating accelerated processes of disintegration. Tracking the evolution of individual glaciers throughout the time periods via the clusters highlights both the broader regional trend as well as glaciers that deviate from this trend, e.g. some very small, high elevation glaciers that have reverted to reduced and more uniform volume loss patterns.
Previous research on the depression scale of the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) has found that different latent factor models have maximized empirical measures of goodness-of-fit. The clinical relevance of these differences is unclear. We aimed to investigate whether depression screening accuracy may be improved by employing latent factor model-based scoring rather than sum scores.
Methods
We used an individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA) database compiled to assess the screening accuracy of the PHQ-9. We included studies that used the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM (SCID) as a reference standard and split those into calibration and validation datasets. In the calibration dataset, we estimated unidimensional, two-dimensional (separating cognitive/affective and somatic symptoms of depression), and bi-factor models, and the respective cut-offs to maximize combined sensitivity and specificity. In the validation dataset, we assessed the differences in (combined) sensitivity and specificity between the latent variable approaches and the optimal sum score (⩾10), using bootstrapping to estimate 95% confidence intervals for the differences.
Results
The calibration dataset included 24 studies (4378 participants, 652 major depression cases); the validation dataset 17 studies (4252 participants, 568 cases). In the validation dataset, optimal cut-offs of the unidimensional, two-dimensional, and bi-factor models had higher sensitivity (by 0.036, 0.050, 0.049 points, respectively) but lower specificity (0.017, 0.026, 0.019, respectively) compared to the sum score cut-off of ⩾10.
Conclusions
In a comprehensive dataset of diagnostic studies, scoring using complex latent variable models do not improve screening accuracy of the PHQ-9 meaningfully as compared to the simple sum score approach.
The 1717 Christmas flood is one of the most catastrophic storm surges the Frisian coast (Netherlands and Germany) has ever experienced. With more than 13,700 casualties it is the last severe storm surge with a death toll of this order. At the same time, little is known about the hydrodynamic conditions and the morphological effects associated with this storm surge.
In this study, 41 potential dyke failures in the Province of Groningen (Netherlands) associated with the 1717 Christmas flood were systematically reconstructed and mapped by using historical maps and literature and by analysing the recent topography in search of typical pothole structures and sediment fans. The dimensions of the sediment fans as derived from the topography show a good accordance with the dimensions documented by vibracore profiles, direct push tests and electrical resistivity tomography data taken at three fieldwork sites. Moreover, the fan dimensions closely agree with the dimensions as simulated using a process-based morphodynamic numerical model for one of the three sites, the village of Wierhuizen. Consequently, the recent topography is still indicative for the locations and dimensions of dyke failures and sediment fans associated with the 1717 Christmas flood. Considering the large number of detected dyke failures (41) and the large dimensions of the potholes and particularly of the sediment fans up to a few hundred metres wide and up to 0.7 m thick, this study proves significant morphological effects of the 1717 Christmas flood on the mainland of the Province of Groningen.
Based on the numerical simulation approach and the comparison with field data and field observations, a maximum seaward water level of 5 m NAP for the dyke failure at Wierhuizen during the Christmas flood can be derived. A similar maximum water level is indicated for the two other fieldwork sites Vierhuizen and Kohol, which is in good agreement with the maximum storm surge level of 4.62 m NAP historically documented for the city of Emden located almost 50 km to the east of Wierhuizen.
The results of the current study demonstrate that the reconstruction of historical dyke failures based on (i) historical sources, (ii) recent lidar/high-resolution topographical data, (iii) multi-proxy sedimentary field data and (iv) hydro- and morphodynamic numerical simulations is a highly promising approach to derive hydrodynamic conditions and the morphological onshore response of the 1717 Christmas flood in the Province of Groningen. This knowledge is essential to improve our understanding of extreme storm surge dynamics, their influence on the coastal landscape and the associated hazards for the coastal population.
Item 9 of the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) queries about thoughts of death and self-harm, but not suicidality. Although it is sometimes used to assess suicide risk, most positive responses are not associated with suicidality. The PHQ-8, which omits Item 9, is thus increasingly used in research. We assessed equivalency of total score correlations and the diagnostic accuracy to detect major depression of the PHQ-8 and PHQ-9.
Methods
We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis. We fit bivariate random-effects models to assess diagnostic accuracy.
Results
16 742 participants (2097 major depression cases) from 54 studies were included. The correlation between PHQ-8 and PHQ-9 scores was 0.996 (95% confidence interval 0.996 to 0.996). The standard cutoff score of 10 for the PHQ-9 maximized sensitivity + specificity for the PHQ-8 among studies that used a semi-structured diagnostic interview reference standard (N = 27). At cutoff 10, the PHQ-8 was less sensitive by 0.02 (−0.06 to 0.00) and more specific by 0.01 (0.00 to 0.01) among those studies (N = 27), with similar results for studies that used other types of interviews (N = 27). For all 54 primary studies combined, across all cutoffs, the PHQ-8 was less sensitive than the PHQ-9 by 0.00 to 0.05 (0.03 at cutoff 10), and specificity was within 0.01 for all cutoffs (0.00 to 0.01).
Conclusions
PHQ-8 and PHQ-9 total scores were similar. Sensitivity may be minimally reduced with the PHQ-8, but specificity is similar.
Governance in Afghanistan is a complex matter. Afghanistan today is not only the territory of Pashtuns, Tajiks, Northern Alliances, Taliban and Al Qaeda, all of whom are competing for power. Afghanistan is also a social field of other political actors like Germany, the UK, the US, the UN and of the “Six plus Two” group. Is it governance without government?
The thesis that, after September 11, 2001, there were categorical differences between Europe and the U.S. in their approaches to the dangers of terrorism, rests essentially on the claim that “Old Europe's” constitutional pacifism has failed. In this view, the global pax americana has a Hobbesian commitment to military power, and this is said to be the form adequate to realize the universal concept of peace. In principle, this is not an especially original notion. Robert Kagan, who nevertheless helped it gain a certain prominence, is merely the intellectual beneficiary of a series of classical theorists of realpolitik who agreed that conflicts could, “at the end of the day,” only be settled politically and not legally. Ironically, the prophets of this thesis were confessed Old Europeans. Carl Schmitt as well as Hans Morgenthau laid the cornerstone of these forms of cosmography, insisting that, on a global level, it is not law that rules but the free interplay of state-forces.
Different diagnostic interviews are used as reference standards for major depression classification in research. Semi-structured interviews involve clinical judgement, whereas fully structured interviews are completely scripted. The Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), a brief fully structured interview, is also sometimes used. It is not known whether interview method is associated with probability of major depression classification.
Aims
To evaluate the association between interview method and odds of major depression classification, controlling for depressive symptom scores and participant characteristics.
Method
Data collected for an individual participant data meta-analysis of Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) diagnostic accuracy were analysed and binomial generalised linear mixed models were fit.
Results
A total of 17 158 participants (2287 with major depression) from 57 primary studies were analysed. Among fully structured interviews, odds of major depression were higher for the MINI compared with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) (odds ratio (OR) = 2.10; 95% CI = 1.15–3.87). Compared with semi-structured interviews, fully structured interviews (MINI excluded) were non-significantly more likely to classify participants with low-level depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 scores ≤6) as having major depression (OR = 3.13; 95% CI = 0.98–10.00), similarly likely for moderate-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores 7–15) (OR = 0.96; 95% CI = 0.56–1.66) and significantly less likely for high-level symptoms (PHQ-9 scores ≥16) (OR = 0.50; 95% CI = 0.26–0.97).
Conclusions
The MINI may identify more people as depressed than the CIDI, and semi-structured and fully structured interviews may not be interchangeable methods, but these results should be replicated.
Declaration of interest
Drs Jetté and Patten declare that they received a grant, outside the submitted work, from the Hotchkiss Brain Institute, which was jointly funded by the Institute and Pfizer. Pfizer was the original sponsor of the development of the PHQ-9, which is now in the public domain. Dr Chan is a steering committee member or consultant of Astra Zeneca, Bayer, Lilly, MSD and Pfizer. She has received sponsorships and honorarium for giving lectures and providing consultancy and her affiliated institution has received research grants from these companies. Dr Hegerl declares that within the past 3 years, he was an advisory board member for Lundbeck, Servier and Otsuka Pharma; a consultant for Bayer Pharma; and a speaker for Medice Arzneimittel, Novartis, and Roche Pharma, all outside the submitted work. Dr Inagaki declares that he has received grants from Novartis Pharma, lecture fees from Pfizer, Mochida, Shionogi, Sumitomo Dainippon Pharma, Daiichi-Sankyo, Meiji Seika and Takeda, and royalties from Nippon Hyoron Sha, Nanzando, Seiwa Shoten, Igaku-shoin and Technomics, all outside of the submitted work. Dr Yamada reports personal fees from Meiji Seika Pharma Co., Ltd., MSD K.K., Asahi Kasei Pharma Corporation, Seishin Shobo, Seiwa Shoten Co., Ltd., Igaku-shoin Ltd., Chugai Igakusha and Sentan Igakusha, all outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests. No funder had any role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the manuscript; and decision to submit the manuscript for publication.
Migration crisis, food crisis, economic crisis - the most alarming tendencies in our contemporary world are related to the transnational social question. But what role does transnational law play in this context: Does it exacerbate the asymmetries by shielding the rich and exploiting the poor? Or is the emerging regime of international social human rights a promising candidate for countering the crisis of world society?This book scrutinises both the potentials and the boundaries of de-coupling the notion of "social rights" from the nation-state and of transferring it to the transnational sphere. By drawing on a critical theory of transnational law, it provides in-depth analyses of the different sites where the struggle for social rights is at stake, such as the emerging transnational food regime, the ILO, international environmental law and the accountability of private actors. It reveals enforcement structures, discusses judicial doctrine and relates these aspects to the social and political struggles which surround the transnationalisation of social rights.
Focusing on orthography as a primary linguistic interface in every reading activity, the central research question we address here is how orthographic intelligibility can be measured and predicted between closely related languages. This paper presents methods and findings of modeling orthographic intelligibility in a reading intercomprehension scenario from the information-theoretic perspective. The focus of the study is on two Slavic language pairs: Czech–Polish (West Slavic, using the Latin script) and Bulgarian–Russian (South Slavic and East Slavic, respectively, using the Cyrillic script). In this article, we present computational methods for measuring orthographic distance and orthographic asymmetry by means of the Levenshtein algorithm, conditional entropy and adaptation surprisal method that are expected to predict the influence of orthography on mutual intelligibility in reading.