On the occasion of Psychometrika's fiftieth anniversary, the past twenty-five years' developments in mental test theory are reviewed, with special emphasis on the topics receiving attention in the pages of this journal. (Analogous reviews for Psychometrika's first quarter century were given by Gulliksen and Guilford in 1961.) Much of the recent progress in test theory (and in other branches of psychometrics as well) has been made by treating the problems in this field as being essentially ones of statistical inference. It is concluded that (a) research in test theory is in a healthy state and (b) Psychometrika is an important source of information about that research.

In Turkey, tea is a near-universally consumed beverage that also operates as a salient moral and political sign in social life. This article describes how tea functions as a “medium of value” in the country, circulating as both a physical commodity and a multivalent sign vehicle that is closely linked in popular imagination to modern modes of egalitarian sociability and the formation of Turkey’s postwar multiparty democracy. In describing the semiotic ideologies that inform tea’s uptake as a sign and its place in Turkey’s modern public culture, the article also traces the historical-material processes that have made tea into both a symbolic model of communal solidarity and a salient sign of national difference—a contested semiotic medium of representation that informs popular discourses on public virtue and democratic politics and that is prominently mobilized in divergent public making projects in contemporary Turkey and North (“Turkish”) Kurdistan.

Maximum likelihood factor analysis provides an effective method for estimation of factor matrices and a useful test statistic in the likelihood ratio for rejection of overly simple factor models. A reliability coefficient is proposed to indicate quality of representation of interrelations among attributes in a battery by a maximum likelihood factor analysis. Usually, for a large sample of individuals or objects, the likelihood ratio statistic could indicate that an otherwise acceptable factor model does not exactly represent the interrelations among the attributes for a population. The reliability coefficient could indicate a very close representation in this case and be a better indication as to whether to accept or reject the factor solution.

In many applications, it is desirable to estimate binomial proportions in m groups where it is anticipated that these proportions are similar but not identical. Following a general approach due to Lindley, a Bayesian Model II aposteriori modal estimate is derived that estimates the inverse sine transform of each proportion by a weighted average of the inverse sine transform of the observed proportion in the individual group and the average of the estimated values. Comparison with a classical method due to Jackson spotlights some desirable features of Model II analyses. The simplicity of the present formulation makes it possible to study the behavior of the Bayesian Model II approach more closely than in more complex formulations. Also, it is possible to estimate the amount of gain afforded by the Model II analyses.

A Bayesian Model II approach to the estimation of proportions in m groups (discussed by Novick, Lewis, and Jackson) is extended to obtain posterior marginal distributions for the proportions. It is anticipated that these will be useful in applications (such as Individually Prescribed Instruction) where decisions are to be made separately for each proportion, rather than jointly for the set of proportions. In addition, the approach is extended to allow greater use of prior information than previously and the specification of this prior information is discussed.

Posterior odds of cheating on achievement tests are presented as an alternative to $p$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$p$$\end{document} values reported for statistical hypothesis testing for several of the probabilistic models in the literature on the detection of cheating. It is shown how to calculate their combinatorial expressions with the help of a reformulation of the simple recursive algorithm for the calculation of number-correct score distributions used throughout the testing industry. Using the odds avoids the arbitrary choice between statistical tests of answer copying that do and do not condition on the responses the test taker is suspected to have copied and allows the testing agency to account for existing circumstantial evidence of cheating through the specification of prior odds.

Following a general approach due to Guttman, coefficientα is rederived as a lower bound on the reliability of a test. A necessary and sufficient condition under which equality is attained in this inequality and hence that α is equal to the reliability of the test is derived and shown to be closely related to the recent redefinition of the concept of parallel measurements due to Novick. This condition is then also shown to be closely related to the unit rank assumption originally adopted by Kuder and Richardson in the derivation of their formula 20. The assumption later adopted by Jackson and Ferguson and the one adopted by Gulliksen are shown to be related to the necessary and sufficient condition derived here. It is then pointed out that the statement that “coefficient α is equal to the mean of the split-half reliabilities” is true only under the restricted condition assumed by Cronbach in the body of his derivation of this result. Finally some limitations on the uses of any function of α as a measure of internal consistency are noted.

Two kinds of measures of multivariate association, based on Wilks' Λ and the Bartlett-Nanda-Pillai trace criterion V, respectively, are compared in terms of properties of the univariate R2 which they generalize. A unified set of derivations of the properties is provided which are self-contained and not restricted to decompositions in canonical variates. One conclusion is that a symmetric index based on Λ allows generalization of the multiplicative decomposition of R2 in terms of squared partial correlations, but not the additive decomposition in terms of squared semipartial correlations, while the reverse is true for an asymmetric index based on V.

The change in brand from British Railways to British Rail (BR) marked an important moment in the history of Britain’s railway. Running alongside BR’s modernization was a wider process of “professionalization” within the field of marketing. This paper explores how the wider professionalization of marketing impacted BR’s own marketing practices, showing that after 1965 BR opened its doors to new methods, means, and perhaps most importantly, specialists from outside the railway industry. Such marketing efforts helped to frame the railway in terms of individual travelers’ specific economic needs: by 1968 it had effectively segmented its passengers into demographic audiences, and by 1975, BR had a much better understanding of its markets. These individual economies were often highly gendered and saw only mixed success, but ultimately demonstrated an application of research, advertising, and promotion.

Our political economy model, as it has come to be called, has offered up forecasts of the American presidential election outcome since the early 1980s. The model, based on referendum theory, as measured by the job performance of the president and the economy (1948 to the present), yields a forecast from data available in the summer of the election year. We consider alternative specifications of this parsimonious model, examining the possible effects of other economic measures, Covid-19, and incumbency advantage on forecasting. The current point estimate of the core political economy model predicts the Democratic candidate will receive 48 percent of the two-party popular vote, which translates into a narrow Electoral College loss for the incumbent party. This point forecast, however, comes with a considerable amount of uncertainty. There is an 11-point spread around our point estimate, which effectively means we have a horserace on our hands, with both horses close to the finish line.

This article proposes an Item Response Theoretical (IRT) forecasting model that incorporates proper scoring rules and provides evaluations of forecasters’ expertise in relation to the features of the specific questions they answer. We illustrate the model using geopolitical forecasts obtained by the Good Judgment Project (GJP) (see Mellers, Ungar, Baron, Ramos, Gurcay, Fincher, Scott, Moore, Atanasov, Swift, Murray, Stone & Tetlock, 2014). The expertise estimates from the IRT model, which take into account variation in the difficulty and discrimination power of the events, capture the underlying construct being measured and are highly correlated with the forecasters’ Brier scores. Furthermore, our expertise estimates based on the first three years of the GJP data are better predictors of both the forecasters’ fourth year Brier scores and their activity level than the overall Brier scores obtained and Merkle’s (2016) predictions, based on the same period. Lastly, we discuss the benefits of using event-characteristic information in forecasting.

Substantial progress has been made in the standardization of nomenclature for paediatric and congenital cardiac care. In 1936, Maude Abbott published her Atlas of Congenital Cardiac Disease, which was the first formal attempt to classify congenital heart disease. The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code (IPCCC) is now utilized worldwide and has most recently become the paediatric and congenital cardiac component of the Eleventh Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). The most recent publication of the IPCCC was in 2017. This manuscript provides an updated 2021 version of the IPCCC.

The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease (ISNPCHD), in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO), developed the paediatric and congenital cardiac nomenclature that is now within the eleventh version of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). This unification of IPCCC and ICD-11 is the IPCCC ICD-11 Nomenclature and is the first time that the clinical nomenclature for paediatric and congenital cardiac care and the administrative nomenclature for paediatric and congenital cardiac care are harmonized. The resultant congenital cardiac component of ICD-11 was increased from 29 congenital cardiac codes in ICD-9 and 73 congenital cardiac codes in ICD-10 to 318 codes submitted by ISNPCHD through 2018 for incorporation into ICD-11. After these 318 terms were incorporated into ICD-11 in 2018, the WHO ICD-11 team added an additional 49 terms, some of which are acceptable legacy terms from ICD-10, while others provide greater granularity than the ISNPCHD thought was originally acceptable. Thus, the total number of paediatric and congenital cardiac terms in ICD-11 is 367. In this manuscript, we describe and review the terminology, hierarchy, and definitions of the IPCCC ICD-11 Nomenclature. This article, therefore, presents a global system of nomenclature for paediatric and congenital cardiac care that unifies clinical and administrative nomenclature.

The members of ISNPCHD realize that the nomenclature published in this manuscript will continue to evolve. The version of the IPCCC that was published in 2017 has evolved and changed, and it is now replaced by this 2021 version. In the future, ISNPCHD will again publish updated versions of IPCCC, as IPCCC continues to evolve.

Many appellate courts and regulatory commissions simultaneously produce case dispositions and rules rationalizing the dispositions. We explore the properties of the American practice for doing this. We show that the median judge is pivotal over case dispositions, although she and others may not vote sincerely. Strategic dispositional voting is more likely when the case location is extreme, resulting in majority coalitions that give the appearance of less polarization on the court than is the case. The equilibrium policy created in the majority opinion generically does not coincide with the ideal policy of the median judge in either the dispositional majority or the bench as a whole. Rather, opinions approach a weighted center of the dispositional majority but often reflect the preferences of the opinion author. We discuss some empirical implications of the American practice for jointly producing case dispositions and rules.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: The objective of this project is to determine whether HRV, collected peri-operatively, is predictive of cognitive decline among older adults who undergo elective surgery/anesthesia. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: This project is a part of the ongoing INTUIT/PRIME study, which is collecting pre- and post-operative cognitive testing, fMRI imaging, CSF samples, and EEG recordings from 200 older adults (age ≥ 60) undergoing elective non-cardiac/non-neurologic surgery scheduled to last > 2 hours at Duke University Medical Center and Duke Regional Hospital. This project utilizes data from the first 60 INTUIT participants who contributed continuous heart rate data before and during surgery. Participants undergo cognitive testing prior to surgery (baseline) and at 6 weeks after surgery. Our primary dependent variable is the change in the composite score from baseline to 6-weeks. Delirium is assessed in the hospital with the twice daily 3D-CAM tool, so we will report the proportion of individuals with 6-week cognitive decline who exhibited delirium in the days following surgery. Participants’ echocardiogram (ECG) recordings are extracted pre- and intraoperatively from B650/B850 patient monitors with VSCapture software. HRV is defined as the variability between successive R-spikes or inter-beat-intervals on ECG. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: We anticipate that lower intraoperative HRV is associated with worse cognitive decline at 6 weeks after surgery. As secondary objectives, we will determine whether pre-operative HRV or change in HRV (from pre-operative to intra-operative measures) are predictive of cognitive decline after surgery. We expect that in-hospital delirium will be detected in a higher proportion of those with 6-week cognitive decline, compared to those with stable or improved cognition at 6 weeks. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: HRV may address the present need for pre- and intra-operative cognitive risk stratification in the elderly. Physiological indices like HRV have the potential to dramatically change our understanding of CI in older adults undergoing surgery, as they offer an accessible, cost-effective, and non-invasive means whereby clinicians, particularly those unfamiliar with the nuances of geriatric and CI/dementia-related care, can monitor patients and refer those at high-risk of CI after surgery for early intervention.