This work presents visual morphological and dynamical classifications for 637 spatially resolved galaxies, most of which are at intermediate redshift (z ∼ 0.3), in the Middle-Ages Galaxy Properties with Integral field spectroscopy (MAGPI) Survey. For each galaxy, we obtain a minimum of 11 independent visual classifications by knowledgeable classifiers. We use an extension of the standard Dawid-Skene Bayesian model introducing classifier-specific confidence parameters and galaxy-specific difficulty parameters to quantify classifier confidence and infer reliable statistical confidence estimates. Selecting sub-samples of 86 bright (r < 20 mag) high-confidence (> 0.98) morphological classifications at redshifts (0.2 ≤ z ≤ 0.4), we confirm the full range of morphological types is represented in MAGPI as intended in the survey design. Similarly, with a sub-sample of 82 bright high-confidence stellar kinematic classifications, we find that the rotating and non-rotating galaxies seen at low redshift are already in place at intermediate redshifts. We do not find evidence that the kinematic morphology-density relation seen at z ∼ 0 is established at z ∼ 0.3. We suggest that galaxies without obvious stellar rotation are dynamically pre-processed sometime before z ∼ 0.3 within lower mass groups before joining denser environments.

Diagnostic classification models (DCMs) are widely used for providing fine-grained classification of a multidimensional collection of discrete attributes. The application of DCMs requires the specification of the latent structure in what is known as the $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} matrix. Expert-specified $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} matrices might be biased and result in incorrect diagnostic classifications, so a critical issue is developing methods to estimate $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} in order to infer the relationship between latent attributes and items. Existing exploratory methods for estimating $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} must pre-specify the number of attributes, K. We present a Bayesian framework to jointly infer the number of attributes K and the elements of $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document}. We propose the crimp sampling algorithm to transit between different dimensions of K and estimate the underlying $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} and model parameters while enforcing model identifiability constraints. We also adapt the Indian buffet process and reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document}. We report evidence that the crimp sampler performs the best among the three methods. We apply the developed methodology to two data sets and discuss the implications of the findings for future research.

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been applied in various domains, which makes the identifiability issue of HMMs popular among researchers. Classical identifiability conditions shown in previous studies are too strong for practical analysis. In this paper, we propose generic identifiability conditions for discrete time HMMs with finite state space. Also, recent studies about cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) applied first-order HMMs to track changes in attributes related to learning. However, the application of CDMs requires a known $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varvec{Q}$$\end{document} matrix to infer the underlying structure between latent attributes and items, and the identifiability constraints of the model parameters should also be specified. We propose generic identifiability constraints for our restricted HMM and then estimate the model parameters, including the $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varvec{Q}$$\end{document} matrix, through a Bayesian framework. We present Monte Carlo simulation results to support our conclusion and apply the developed model to a real dataset.

Cognitive diagnosis models are partially ordered latent class models and are used to classify students into skill mastery profiles. The deterministic inputs, noisy “and” gate model (DINA) is a popular psychometric model for cognitive diagnosis. Application of the DINA model requires content expert knowledge of a Q matrix, which maps the attributes or skills needed to master a collection of items. Misspecification of Q has been shown to yield biased diagnostic classifications. We propose a Bayesian framework for estimating the DINA Q matrix. The developed algorithm builds upon prior research (Chen, Liu, Xu, & Ying, in J Am Stat Assoc 110(510):850–866, 2015) and ensures the estimated Q matrix is identified. Monte Carlo evidence is presented to support the accuracy of parameter recovery. The developed methodology is applied to Tatsuoka’s fraction-subtraction dataset.

The specification of the $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} matrix in cognitive diagnosis models is important for correct classification of attribute profiles. Researchers have proposed many methods for estimation and validation of the data-driven $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} matrices. However, inference of the number of attributes in the general restricted latent class model remains an open question. We propose a Bayesian framework for general restricted latent class models and use the spike-and-slab prior to avoid the computation issues caused by the varying dimensions of model parameters associated with the number of attributes, K. We develop an efficient Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm to estimate K and the corresponding $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} matrix simultaneously. The proposed algorithm uses the stick-breaking construction to mimic an Indian buffet process and employs a novel Metropolis–Hastings transition step to encourage exploring the sample space associated with different values of K. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method through a simulation study under different model specifications and apply the method to a real data set related to a fluid intelligence matrix reasoning test.

As the global population continues to age, effective management of longevity risk becomes increasingly critical for various stakeholders. Accurate mortality forecasting serves as a cornerstone for addressing this challenge. This study proposes to leverage Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) to enhance mortality rate predictions. By extending the traditional Lee-Carter model with KPCA, we capture nonlinear patterns and complex relationships in mortality data. The newly proposed KPCA Lee-Carter algorithm is empirically tested and demonstrates superior forecasting performance. Furthermore, the model’s robustness was tested during the COVID-19 pandemic, showing that the KPCA Lee-Carter algorithm effectively captures increased uncertainty during extreme events while maintaining narrower prediction intervals. This makes it a valuable tool for mortality forecasting and risk management. Our findings contribute to the growing body of literature where actuarial science intersects with statistical learning, offering practical solutions to the challenges posed by an aging world population.

Zonal flows are mean flows in the east–west direction, which are ubiquitous on planets, and can be formed through ‘zonostrophic instability’: within turbulence or random waves, a weak large-scale zonal flow can grow exponentially to become prominent. In this paper, we study the statistical behaviour of the zonostrophic instability and the effect of magnetic fields. We use a stochastic white noise forcing to drive random waves, and study the growth of a mean flow in this random system. The dispersion relation for the growth rate of the expectation of the mean flow is derived, and properties of the instability are discussed. In the limits of weak and strong magnetic diffusivity, the dispersion relation reduces to manageable expressions, which provide clear insights into the effect of the magnetic field and scaling laws for the threshold of instability. The magnetic field mainly plays a stabilising role and thus impedes the formation of the zonal flow, but under certain conditions it can also have destabilising effects. Numerical simulation of the stochastic flow is performed to confirm the theory. Results indicate that the magnetic field can significantly increase the randomness of the zonal flow. It is found that the zonal flow of an individual realisation may behave very differently from the expectation. For weak magnetic diffusivity and moderate magnetic field strengths, this leads to considerable variation of the outcome, that is whether zonostrophic instability takes place or not in individual realisations.

One species-general life history (LH) principle posits that challenging childhood environments are coupled with a fast or faster LH strategy and associated behaviors, while secure and stable childhood environments foster behaviors conducive to a slow or slower LH strategy. This coupling between environments and LH strategies is based on the assumption that individuals’ internal traits and states are independent of their external surroundings. In reality, individuals respond to external environmental conditions in alignment with their intrinsic vitality, encompassing both physical and mental states. The present study investigated attachment as an internal mental state, examining its role in mediating and moderating the association between external environmental adversity and fast LH strategies. A sample of 1169 adolescents (51% girls) from 9 countries was tracked over 10 years, starting from age 8. The results confirm both mediation and moderation and, for moderation, secure attachment nullified and insecure attachment maintained the environment-LH coupling. These findings suggest that attachment could act as an internal regulator, disrupting the contingent coupling between environmental adversity and a faster pace of life, consequently decelerating human LH.

This study aimed to understand the population and contact tracer uptake of the quick response (QR)-code-based function of the New Zealand COVID Tracer App (NZCTA) used for digital contact tracing (DCT). We used a retrospective cohort of all COVID-19 cases between August 2020 and February 2022. Cases of Asian and other ethnicities were 2.6 times (adjusted relative risk (aRR) 2.58, 99 per cent confidence interval (95% CI) 2.18, 3.05) and 1.8 times (aRR 1.81, 95% CI 1.58, 2.06) more likely than Māori cases to generate a token during the Delta period, and this persisted during the Omicron period. Contact tracing organization also influenced location token generation with cases handled by National Case Investigation Service (NCIS) staff being 2.03 (95% CI 1.79, 2.30) times more likely to generate a token than cases managed by clinical staff at local Public Health Units (PHUs). Public uptake and participation in the location-based system independent of contact tracer uptake were estimated at 45%. The positive predictive value (PPV) of the QR code system was estimated to be close to nil for detecting close contacts but close to 100% for detecting casual contacts. Our paper shows that the QR-code-based function of the NZCTA likely made a negligible impact on the COVID-19 response in New Zealand (NZ) in relation to isolating potential close contacts of cases but likely was effective at identifying and notifying casual contacts.

We present the third data release from the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array (PPTA) project. The release contains observations of 32 pulsars obtained using the 64-m Parkes ‘Murriyang’ radio telescope. The data span is up to 18 yr with a typical cadence of 3 weeks. This data release is formed by combining an updated version of our second data release with $\sim$3 yr of more recent data primarily obtained using an ultra-wide-bandwidth receiver system that operates between 704 and 4032 MHz. We provide calibrated pulse profiles, flux density dynamic spectra, pulse times of arrival, and initial pulsar timing models. We describe methods for processing such wide-bandwidth observations and compare this data release with our previous release.

This article provides an overview of compositional practices that invoke representations of the human voice by acoustic means, without the presence of actual human speakers, and, in identifying the limitations and deficiencies of extant practice, proposes a new method or methodological basis for achieving the same phenomenon, to different ends. Clarence Barlow's seminal synthrumentation method forms a central point of discussion; when considered alongside the work of, among others, Mayuzumi, Grisey and Ablinger, it becomes clear that, in existing synthrumental (or instrumental synthesis) practices, the innate inharmonic components of target material for reproduction have largely been discarded or overlooked. After a brief overview of the basic linguistic and perceptual features of speech, a new method designed to evoke whispered speech, with inharmonicity in mind, is demonstrated.

This paper studies the instability of two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic systems on a sphere using analytical methods. The underlying flow consists of a zonal differential rotation and a toroidal magnetic field is present. Semicircle rules that prescribe the possible domain of the wave velocity in the complex plane for general flow and field profiles are derived. The paper then sets out an analytical study of the ‘clamshell instability’, which features field lines on the two hemispheres tilting in opposite directions (Cally, Sol. Phys., vol. 199, 2001, pp. 231–249). An asymptotic solution for the instability problem is derived for the limit of weak shear of the zonal flow, via the method of matched asymptotic expansions. It is shown that when the zonal flow is solid body rotation, there exists a neutral mode that tilts the magnetic field lines, referred to as the ‘tilting mode’. A weak shear of the zonal flow excites the critical layer of the tilting mode, which reverses the tilting direction to form the clamshell pattern and induces the instability. The asymptotic solution provides insights into properties of the instability for a range of flow and field profiles. A remarkable feature is that the magnetic field affects the instability only through its local behaviour in the critical layer.