This study evaluated the impact of four cover crop species and their termination timings on cover crop biomass, weed control, and corn yield. A field experiment was arranged in a split-plot design in which cover crop species (wheat, cereal rye, hairy vetch, and rapeseed) were the main plot factor, and termination timings [4, 2, 1, and 0 wk before planting corn (WBP)] was the subplot factor. In both years (2021 and 2022), hairy vetch produced the most biomass (5,021 kg ha–1) among cover crop species, followed by cereal rye (4,387 kg ha–1), wheat (3,876 kg ha–1), and rapeseed (2,575 kg ha–1). Regression analysis of cover crop biomass with accumulated growing degree days (AGDDs) indicated that for every 100 AGDD increase, the biomass of cereal rye, wheat, hairy vetch, and rapeseed increased by 880, 670, 780, and 620 kg ha–1, respectively. The density of grass and small-seeded broadleaf (SSB) weeds at 4 wk after preemergence herbicide (WAPR) application varied significantly across termination timings. The grass and SSB weed densities were 56% and 36% less at 0 WBP compared with 2 WBP, and 67% and 61% less compared with 4 WBP. The sole use of a roller-crimper did not affect the termination of rapeseed at 0 WBP and resulted in the least corn yield (3,046 kg ha–1), whereas several different combinations of cover crops and termination timings resulted in greater corn yield. In conclusion, allowing cover crops to grow longer in the spring offers more biomass for weed suppression and impacts corn yield.

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with poor mental health outcomes, which are increasingly conceptualized from a transdiagnostic perspective. We examined the impact of ACEs on transdiagnostic mental health outcomes in young adulthood and explored potential effect modification. We included participants from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children with prospectively measured data on ACEs from infancy till age 16 as well as mental health outcomes at ages 18 and 24. Exposures included emotional neglect, bullying, and physical, sexual or emotional abuse. The outcome was a pooled transdiagnostic Stage of 1b (subthreshold but clinically significant symptoms) or greater level (Stage 1b+) of depression, anxiety, or psychosis – a clinical stage typically associated with first need for mental health care. We conducted multivariable logistic regressions, with multiple imputation for missing data. We explored effect modification by sex at birth, first-degree family history of mental disorder, childhood neurocognition, and adolescent personality traits. Stage 1b + outcome was associated with any ACE (OR = 2.66, 95% CI = 1.68–4.22), any abuse (OR = 2.08, 95% CI = 1.38–3.14), bullying (OR = 2.15, 95% CI = 1.43–3.24), and emotional neglect (OR = 1.68, 95% CI = 1.06–2.67). Emotional neglect had a weaker association with the outcome among females (OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 0.61–2.14) than males (OR = 3.49, 95% CI = 1.64–7.42) and among those with higher extraversion (OR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.85–0.97), in unweighted (n = 2,126) and weighted analyses (n = 7,815), with an openness–neglect interaction observed in the unweighted sample. Sex at birth, openness, and extraversion could modify the effects of adverse experiences, particularly emotional neglect, on the development of poorer transdiagnostic mental health outcomes.

Objectives/Goals: Manual skin assessment in chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) can be time consuming and inconsistent (>20% affected area) even for experts. Building on previous work we explore methods to use unmarked photos to train artificial intelligence (AI) models, aiming to improve performance by expanding and diversifying the training data without additional burden on experts. Methods/Study Population: Common to many medical imaging projects, we have a small number of expert-marked patient photos (N = 36, n = 360), and many unmarked photos (N = 337, n = 25,842). Dark skin (Fitzpatrick type 4+) is underrepresented in both sets; 11% of patients in the marked set and 9% in the unmarked set. In addition, a set of 20 expert-marked photos from 20 patients were withheld from training to assess model performance, with 20% dark skin type. Our gold standard markings were manual contours around affected skin by a trained expert. Three AI training methods were tested. Our established baseline uses only the small number of marked photos (supervised method). The semi-supervised method uses a mix of marked and unmarked photos with human feedback. The self-supervised method uses only unmarked photos without any human feedback. Results/Anticipated Results: We evaluated performance by comparing predicted skin areas with expert markings. The error was given by the absolute difference between the percentage areas marked by the AI model and expert, where lower is better. Across all test patients, the median error was 19% (interquartile range 6 – 34) for the supervised method and 10% (5 – 23) for the semi-supervised method, which incorporated unmarked photos from 83 patients. On dark skin types, the median error was 36% (18 – 62) for supervised and 28% (14 – 52) for semi-supervised, compared to a median error on light skin of 18% (5 – 26) for supervised and 7% (4 – 17) for semi-supervised. Self-supervised, using all 337 unmarked patients, is expected to further improve performance and consistency due to increased data diversity. Full results will be presented at the meeting. Discussion/Significance of Impact: By automating skin assessment for cGVHD, AI could improve accuracy and consistency compared to manual methods. If translated to clinical use, this would ease clinical burden and scale to large patient cohorts. Future work will focus on ensuring equitable performance across all skin types, providing fair and accurate assessments for every patient.

Maladaptive daydreaming is a distinct syndrome in which the main symptom is excessive vivid fantasising that causes clinically significant distress and functional impairment in academic, vocational and social domains. Unlike normal daydreaming, maladaptive daydreaming is persistent, compulsive and detrimental to one’s life. It involves detachment from reality in favour of intense emotional engagement with alternative realities and often includes specific features such as psychomotor stereotypies (e.g. pacing in circles, jumping or shaking one’s hands), mouthing dialogues, facial gestures or enacting fantasy events. Comorbidity is common, but existing disorders do not account for the phenomenology of the symptoms. Whereas non-specific therapy is ineffective, targeted treatment seems promising. Thus, we propose that maladaptive daydreaming be considered a formal syndrome in psychiatric taxonomies, positioned within the dissociative disorders category. Maladaptive daydreaming satisfactorily meets criteria for conceptualisation as a psychiatric syndrome, including reliable discrimination from other disorders and solid interrater agreement. It involves significant dissociative aspects, such as disconnection from perception, behaviour and sense of self, and has some commonalities with but is not subsumed under existing dissociative disorders. Formal recognition of maladaptive daydreaming as a dissociative disorder will encourage awareness of a growing problem and spur theoretical, research and clinical developments.

Standardized tests are frequently used for selection decisions, and the validation of test scores remains an important area of research. This paper builds upon prior literature about the effect of nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity on the accuracy of standard formulas for correcting correlations in restricted samples. Existing formulas for direct range restriction require three assumptions: (1) the criterion variable is missing at random; (2) a linear relationship between independent and dependent variables; and (3) constant error variance or homoscedasticity. The results in this paper demonstrate that the standard approach for correcting restricted correlations is severely biased in cases of extreme monotone quadratic nonlinearity and heteroscedasticity. This paper offers at least three significant contributions to the existing literature. First, a method from the econometrics literature is adapted to provide more accurate estimates of unrestricted correlations. Second, derivations establish bounds on the degree of bias attributed to quadratic functions under the assumption of a monotonic relationship between test scores and criterion measurements. New results are presented on the bias associated with using the standard range restriction correction formula, and the results show that the standard correction formula yields estimates of unrestricted correlations that deviate by as much as 0.2 for high to moderate selectivity. Third, Monte Carlo simulation results demonstrate that the new procedure for correcting restricted correlations provides more accurate estimates in the presence of quadratic and heteroscedastic test score and criterion relationships.

Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are an important psychometric framework for classifying students in terms of attribute and/or skill mastery. The $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varvec{Q}$$\end{document} matrix, which specifies the required attributes for each item, is central to implementing CDMs. The general unavailability of $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varvec{Q}$$\end{document} for most content areas and datasets poses a barrier to widespread applications of CDMs, and recent research accordingly developed fully exploratory methods to estimate Q. However, current methods do not always offer clear interpretations of the uncovered skills and existing exploratory methods do not use expert knowledge to estimate Q. We consider Bayesian estimation of $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varvec{Q}$$\end{document} using a prior based upon expert knowledge using a fully Bayesian formulation for a general diagnostic model. The developed method can be used to validate which of the underlying attributes are predicted by experts and to identify residual attributes that remain unexplained by expert knowledge. We report Monte Carlo evidence about the accuracy of selecting active expert-predictors and present an application using Tatsuoka’s fraction-subtraction dataset.

Restricted latent class models (RLCMs) are an important class of methods that provide researchers and practitioners in the educational, psychological, and behavioral sciences with fine-grained diagnostic information to guide interventions. Recent research established sufficient conditions for identifying RLCM parameters. A current challenge that limits widespread application of RLCMs is that existing identifiability conditions may be too restrictive for some practical settings. In this paper we establish a weaker condition for identifying RLCM parameters for multivariate binary data. Although the new results weaken identifiability conditions for general RLCMs, the new results do not relax existing necessary and sufficient conditions for the simpler DINA/DINO models. Theoretically, we introduce a new form of latent structure completeness, referred to as dyad-completeness, and prove identification by applying Kruskal’s Theorem for the uniqueness of three-way arrays. The new condition is more likely satisfied in applied research, and the results provide researchers and test-developers with guidance for designing diagnostic instruments.

The study of prediction bias is important and the last five decades include research studies that examined whether test scores differentially predict academic or employment performance. Previous studies used ordinary least squares (OLS) to assess whether groups differ in intercepts and slopes. This study shows that OLS yields inaccurate inferences for prediction bias hypotheses. This paper builds upon the criterion-predictor factor model by demonstrating the effect of selection, measurement error, and measurement bias on prediction bias studies that use OLS. The range restricted, criterion-predictor factor model is used to compute Type I error and power rates associated with using regression to assess prediction bias hypotheses. In short, OLS is not capable of testing hypotheses about group differences in latent intercepts and slopes. Additionally, a theorem is presented which shows that researchers should not employ hierarchical regression to assess intercept differences with selected samples.

There has been renewed interest in Barton and Lord’s (An upper asymptote for the three-parameter logistic item response model (Tech. Rep. No. 80-20). Educational Testing Service, 1981) four-parameter item response model. This paper presents a Bayesian formulation that extends Béguin and Glas (MCMC estimation and some model fit analysis of multidimensional IRT models. Psychometrika, 66 (4):541–561, 2001) and proposes a model for the four-parameter normal ogive (4PNO) model. Monte Carlo evidence is presented concerning the accuracy of parameter recovery. The simulation results support the use of less informative uniform priors for the lower and upper asymptotes, which is an advantage to prior research. Monte Carlo results provide some support for using the deviance information criterion and ${\mathit{\chi }}^2$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\chi ^{2}$$\end{document} index to choose among models with two, three, and four parameters. The 4PNO is applied to 7491 adolescents’ responses to a bullying scale collected under the 2005–2006 Health Behavior in School-Aged Children study. The results support the value of the 4PNO to estimate lower and upper asymptotes in large-scale surveys.

This paper assesses the psychometric value of allowing test-takers choice in standardized testing. New theoretical results examine the conditions where allowing choice improves score precision. A hierarchical framework is presented for jointly modeling the accuracy of cognitive responses and item choices. The statistical methodology is disseminated in the ‘cIRT’ R package. An ‘answer two, choose one’ (A2C1) test administration design is introduced to avoid challenges associated with nonignorable missing data. Experimental results suggest that the A2C1 design and payout structure encouraged subjects to choose items consistent with their cognitive trait levels. Substantively, the experimental data suggest that item choices yielded comparable information and discrimination ability as cognitive items. Given there are no clear guidelines for writing more or less discriminating items, one practical implication is that choice can serve as a mechanism to improve score precision.

Diagnostic classification models (DCMs) are widely used for providing fine-grained classification of a multidimensional collection of discrete attributes. The application of DCMs requires the specification of the latent structure in what is known as the $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} matrix. Expert-specified $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} matrices might be biased and result in incorrect diagnostic classifications, so a critical issue is developing methods to estimate $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} in order to infer the relationship between latent attributes and items. Existing exploratory methods for estimating $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} must pre-specify the number of attributes, K. We present a Bayesian framework to jointly infer the number of attributes K and the elements of $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document}. We propose the crimp sampling algorithm to transit between different dimensions of K and estimate the underlying $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document} and model parameters while enforcing model identifiability constraints. We also adapt the Indian buffet process and reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$${\varvec{Q}}$$\end{document}. We report evidence that the crimp sampler performs the best among the three methods. We apply the developed methodology to two data sets and discuss the implications of the findings for future research.

Recently, there has been a renewed interest in the four-parameter item response theory model as a way to capture guessing and slipping behaviors in responses. Research has shown, however, that the nested three-parameter model suffers from issues of unidentifiability (San Martín et al. in Psychometrika 80:450–467, 2015), which places concern on the identifiability of the four-parameter model. Borrowing from recent advances in the identification of cognitive diagnostic models, in particular, the DINA model (Gu and Xu in Stat Sin https://doi.org/10.5705/ss.202018.0420, 2019), a new model is proposed with restrictions inspired by this new literature to help with the identification issue. Specifically, we show conditions under which the four-parameter model is strictly and generically identified. These conditions inform the presentation of a new exploratory model, which we call the dyad four-parameter normal ogive (Dyad-4PNO) model. This model is developed by placing a hierarchical structure on the DINA model and imposing equality constraints on a priori unknown dyads of items. We present a Bayesian formulation of this model, and show that model parameters can be accurately recovered. Finally, we apply the model to a real dataset.

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been applied in various domains, which makes the identifiability issue of HMMs popular among researchers. Classical identifiability conditions shown in previous studies are too strong for practical analysis. In this paper, we propose generic identifiability conditions for discrete time HMMs with finite state space. Also, recent studies about cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) applied first-order HMMs to track changes in attributes related to learning. However, the application of CDMs requires a known $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varvec{Q}$$\end{document} matrix to infer the underlying structure between latent attributes and items, and the identifiability constraints of the model parameters should also be specified. We propose generic identifiability constraints for our restricted HMM and then estimate the model parameters, including the $\mathit{Q}$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\varvec{Q}$$\end{document} matrix, through a Bayesian framework. We present Monte Carlo simulation results to support our conclusion and apply the developed model to a real dataset.

Cognitive diagnosis models are partially ordered latent class models and are used to classify students into skill mastery profiles. The deterministic inputs, noisy “and” gate model (DINA) is a popular psychometric model for cognitive diagnosis. Application of the DINA model requires content expert knowledge of a Q matrix, which maps the attributes or skills needed to master a collection of items. Misspecification of Q has been shown to yield biased diagnostic classifications. We propose a Bayesian framework for estimating the DINA Q matrix. The developed algorithm builds upon prior research (Chen, Liu, Xu, & Ying, in J Am Stat Assoc 110(510):850–866, 2015) and ensures the estimated Q matrix is identified. Monte Carlo evidence is presented to support the accuracy of parameter recovery. The developed methodology is applied to Tatsuoka’s fraction-subtraction dataset.

The existence of differences in prediction systems involving test scores across demographic groups continues to be a thorny and unresolved scientific, professional, and societal concern. Our case study uses a two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator to jointly assess measurement invariance and prediction invariance in high-stakes testing. So, we examined differences across groups based on latent as opposed to observed scores with data for 176 colleges and universities from The College Board. Results showed that evidence regarding measurement invariance was rejected for the SAT mathematics (SAT-M) subtest at the 0.01 level for 74.5% and 29.9% of cohorts for Black versus White and Hispanic versus White comparisons, respectively. Also, on average, Black students with the same standing on a common factor had observed SAT-M scores that were nearly a third of a standard deviation lower than for comparable Whites. We also found evidence that group differences in SAT-M measurement intercepts may partly explain the well-known finding of observed differences in prediction intercepts. Additionally, results provided evidence that nearly a quarter of the statistically significant observed intercept differences were not statistically significant at the 0.05 level once predictor measurement error was accounted for using the 2SLS procedure. Our joint measurement and prediction invariance approach based on latent scores opens the door to a new high-stakes testing research agenda whose goal is to not simply assess whether observed group-based differences exist and the size and direction of such differences. Rather, the goal of this research agenda is to assess the causal chain starting with underlying theoretical mechanisms (e.g., contextual factors, differences in latent predictor scores) that affect the size and direction of any observed differences.