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Recent changes to US research funding are having far-reaching consequences that imperil the integrity of science and the provision of care to vulnerable populations. Resisting these changes, the BJPsych Portfolio reaffirms its commitment to publishing mental science and advancing psychiatric knowledge that improves the mental health of one and all.
The nature and extent of interactions between the distant regions and cultures of Mesoamerica remain open to much debate. Close economic and political ties developed between Teotihuacan and the lowland Maya during the Early Classic period (AD 250–550), yet the relationship between these cultures continues to perplex scholars. This article presents an elaborately painted altar from an elite residential group at the lowland Maya centre of Tikal, Guatemala. Dating to the fifth century AD, the altar is unique in its display of Teotihuacan architectural and artistic forms, adding to evidence not only for cultural influence during this period, but also for an active Teotihuacan presence at Tikal.
We investigate the effects of heterogeneity and incomplete information on aggregate contributions to a public good using the voluntary contribution mechanism. The non-linear laboratory environment has three-person groups as partners under varying conditions of information and communication. Bergstrom, Blum and Varian predict that increasing heterogeneity will have no effect on aggregate contributions in a no-communication environment. Ledyard conjectures a positive effect of incomplete information, a negative effect of heterogeneity, and a positive interaction of heterogeneity and incomplete information. We find that incomplete information has a small but significant negative effect. Heterogeneity has a positive effect on aggregate contributions, but its effects interact unexpectedly with communication. In a no-communication environment, heterogeneity in two dimensions (endowment and preferences) increases contributions substantially while heterogeneity in a single dimension (endowment or preferences) has little effect. In the communication environment we find the reverse. We also find a positive interaction between heterogeneity and incomplete information. Thus we reject the Bergstrom, Blume and Varian invariance result and provide mixed evidence on Ledyard's conjectures.
Early intervention in psychosis (EIP) services improve outcomes for young people, but approximately 30% disengage.
Aims
To test whether a new motivational engagement intervention would prolong engagement and whether it was cost-effective.
Method
We conducted a multicentre, single-blind, parallel-group, cluster randomised controlled trial involving 20 EIP teams at five UK National Health Service (NHS) sites. Teams were randomised using permuted blocks stratified by NHS trust. Participants were all young people (aged 14–35 years) presenting with a first episode of psychosis between May 2019 and July 2020 (N = 1027). We compared the novel Early Youth Engagement (EYE-2) intervention plus standardised EIP (sEIP) with sEIP alone. The primary outcome was time to disengagement over 12–26 months. Economic outcomes were mental health costs, societal costs and socio-occupational outcomes over 12 months. Assessors were masked to treatment allocation for primary disengagement and cost-effectiveness outcomes. Analysis followed intention-to-treat principles. The trial was registered at ISRCTN51629746.
Results
Disengagement was low at 15.9% overall in standardised stand-alone services. The adjusted hazard ratio for EYE-2 + sEIP (n = 652) versus sEIP alone (n = 375) was 1.07 (95% CI 0.76–1.49; P = 0.713). The health economic evaluation indicated lower mental healthcare costs linked to reductions in unplanned mental healthcare with no compromise of clinical outcomes, as well as some evidence for lower societal costs and more days in education, training, employment and stable accommodation in the EYE-2 group.
Conclusions
We found no evidence that EYE-2 increased time to disengagement, but there was some evidence for its cost-effectiveness. This is the largest study to date reporting positive engagement, health and cost outcomes in a total EIP population sample. Limitations included high loss to follow-up for secondary outcomes and low completion of societal and socio-occupational data. COVID-19 affected fidelity and implementation. Future engagement research should target engagement to those in greatest need, including in-patients and those with socio-occupational goals.
Reducing rehospitalization has been a primary focus of hospitals and payors. Recurrence of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is common and often results in rehospitalization. Factors that influence rehospitalization for CDI are not well understood.
Objective:
To determine the risk factors that influence rehospitalization caused by CDI.
Design:
A retrospective cohort study from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2018, of patients aged ≥18 who tested positive for C. difficile while hospitalized.
Setting:
Academic hospital.
Methods:
The risk of rehospitalization was assessed across exposures during and after the index hospitalization using a Cox proportional hazards model. The primary outcome of this study was 60-day CDI-related rehospitalization.
Results:
There were 559 hospitalized patients with a positive CD test during the study period, and 408 patients were included for analysis. All-cause rehospitalization was 46.1% within 60 days of the index hospital discharge. Within 60 days of discharge, 68 patients developed CDI, of which 72.5% (49 of 68) were rehospitalized specifically for the management of CDI. The risk of rehospitalization in patients with CDI was higher among patients who were exposed to systemic antibiotics ([adjusted hazard ratio] aHR: 2.78; 95% CI, 1.36–5.64) and lower among patients who had post-discharge follow-up addressing C. difficile (aHR: 0.53; 95% CI, 0.28–0.98).
Conclusions:
Exposure to systemic antibiotics increased the risk of rehospitalization due to CDI, while post-discharge follow-up decreased the risk of rehospitalization due to CDI. Comprehensive transitions of care for hospitalized patients with C. difficile may reduce the risk of CDI-related rehospitalization.
Large-scale geological structures have controlled the long-term development of the bed and thus the flow of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). However, complete ice cover has obscured the age and exact positions of faults and geological boundaries beneath Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, two major WAIS outlets in the Amundsen Sea sector. Here, we characterize the only rock outcrop between these two glaciers, which was exposed by the retreat of slow-flowing coastal ice in the early 2010s to form the new Sif Island. The island comprises granite, zircon U-Pb dated to ~177–174 Ma and characterized by initial ɛNd, 87Sr/86Sr and ɛHf isotope compositions of -2.3, 0.7061 and -1.3, respectively. These characteristics resemble Thurston Island/Antarctic Peninsula crustal block rocks, strongly suggesting that the Sif Island granite belongs to this province and placing the crustal block's boundary with the Marie Byrd Land province under Thwaites Glacier or its eastern shear margin. Low-temperature thermochronological data reveal that the granite underwent rapid cooling following emplacement, rapidly cooled again at ~100–90 Ma and then remained close to the Earth's surface until present. These data help date vertical displacement across the major tectonic structure beneath Pine Island Glacier to the Late Cretaceous.
This study aimed to analyse the influence of improved antenatal detection on the course, contemporary outcomes, and mortality risk factors of the complete atrioventricular block during fetal-neonatal and childhood periods in South Wales.
Methods:
The clinical characteristics and outcomes of complete atrioventricular block in patients without structural heart disease at the University Hospital of Wales from January 1966 to April 2021 were studied. Patients were divided into two groups according to their age at diagnosis: I-fetal-neonatal and II-childhood. Contemporary outcomes during the post-2001 era were compared with historical data preceding fetal service development and hence earlier detection.
Results:
There were 64 patients: 26 were identified in the fetal-neonatal period and the remaining 38 in the childhood period. Maternal antibodies/systemic lupus erythematosus disease (anti-Ro/Sjögren’s-syndrome-related Antigen A and/or anti-La/Sjögren’s-syndrome-related Antigen B) were present in 15 (57.7%) of the fetal-neonatal. Fetal/neonatal and early diagnosis increased after 2001 with an incidence of 1:25000 pregnancies. Pacemaker implantation was required in 34 patients, of whom 13 were diagnosed in the fetal-neonatal group. Survival rates in cases identified before 2001 were at 96.3% (26/27), whereas it was 83.8% (31/37) in patients diagnosed after 2001 (P > 0.05). Other mortality risk factors comprised a lower gestational week at birth, maternal antibodies, and an average ventricular heart rate of < 55 bpm.
Conclusions:
Fetal diagnosis of complete atrioventricular block is still portends high fetal and neonatal mortality and morbidity despite significantly improved antenatal detection after 2001. Pacemaker intervention is needed earlier in the fetal-neonatal group. Whether routine antenatal medical treatment might alter this outcome calls for further prospective multicentre studies.
The cost effectiveness of treating Bell’s palsy with prednisolone in children is unknown. This study aimed to assess the cost effectiveness of prednisolone, compared with placebo, in treating Bell’s Palsy in children from a healthcare sector perspective.
Methods
This economic evaluation was a prospectively planned secondary analysis of a triple-blind randomized superiority trial conducted from 2015 to 2020 that compared prednisolone with placebo. The time horizon was six months after randomization. The 180 participants were aged from six months to 17 years and presented within 72 hours of onset of clinician diagnosed Bell’s palsy. Interventions were oral prednisolone (1 mg per kg daily) or taste-matched placebo administered for ten days. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing prednisolone with placebo were estimated. Costs included medication costs, doctor visits, and medical tests over the six-month study period. Effectiveness was measured using quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) derived from the Child Health Utility 9D instrument. Nonparametric bootstrapping was performed to capture uncertainties. Prespecified subgroup analyses by age (12 to 17 years versus <12 years) were performed.
Results
The mean cost per patient was USD188 in the prednisolone group and USD121 in the placebo group over the six-month period (difference USD66, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 47, 179). The mean QALYs gained over six months were 0.45 in the prednisolone group and 0.44 in the placebo group (difference 0.01, 95%CI: -0.01, 0.03). Prednisolone was very likely cost effective given a conventional willingness-to-pay threshold of USD 50,000 per QALY gained (the cost per additional QALY gained was USD6,625 using prednisolone compared with placebo). Subgroup analysis suggested that this was primarily driven by the high probability of prednisolone being cost effective in children aged 12 to 17 years (98%), compared with those younger than 12 years (51%).
Conclusions
This study provides new evidence to stakeholders and policy makers who are considering whether to make prednisolone available for treating Bell’s palsy in children aged 12 to 17 years.
The Bali myna Leucopsar rothschildi has long suffered heavy trapping, leading to its near extinction in the wild and categorization as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List. Decades of conservation breeding, release of birds and post-release management at Bali Barat National Park have, until recently, failed to secure a viable wild population. However, over the past decade, population increases, expansion into new areas of the National Park and beyond, and successful breeding in both artificial and natural nest sites have occurred. These recent successes are associated with a change in approach by the National Park authority from concentrating efforts on the last refugium of the species (an area protected from trapping but with potentially suboptimal habitat) and towards the human-dominated landscapes around the main road through the National Park. Bali mynas tended to favour areas with extensive shorter grass cover and open canopies and to shun denser woodland. Anthropogenic landscapes such as farmland and plantations presumably mimic the original savannah habitat of the species, but nestbox provision has probably been crucial in these areas in the absence of natural cavities. A potential further factor in the increases in myna numbers and range has been a scheme involving local people in commercial breeding of the species, thereby reducing its market price, and working with communities to reduce trapping pressure. We encourage continuing operation of this management strategy inside the National Park and its further extension into adjacent tourist areas, which appear to have myna-friendly socio-ecological conditions.
Perinatal maternal depression may affect fetal neurodevelopment directly or indirectly via exposures such as smoking, alcohol, or antidepressant use. The relative contribution of these risk factors on child executive function (EF) has not been explored systematically.
Methods
A prospective pregnancy cohort of 197 women and their children was studied to determine whether maternal depression diagnosis and the trajectory of maternal depressive symptoms (MDSs) from early pregnancy to 12 months postpartum predicts child EF at age 4 (measured using the preschool age psychiatric assessment, NEPSY-II, and Shape School task) using latent growth curve modeling. Indirect effects of smoking, alcohol, and antidepressant use were also formally tested.
Results
Increasing maternal perinatal depressive symptoms over time predicted more inattentive symptoms, poorer switching, and motor inhibition, but not cognitive inhibition. When adjusted for multiple comparison, and after accounting for maternal cognition and education, the association with child inattentive symptoms remained significant. However, diagnosed depression did not predict child EF outcomes. Prenatal exposure to smoking, alcohol, and antidepressants also did not mediate pathways from depressive symptoms to EF outcomes. Our findings were limited by sample size and statistical power to detect outcome effects of smaller effect size.
Conclusions
This study suggests that increasing MDSs over the perinatal period is associated with poorer EF outcomes in children at age 4 – independent of prenatal smoking, drinking, or antidepressant use. Depressive chronicity, severity, and postpartum influences may play crucial roles in determining childhood outcomes of EF.
The current study aimed to investigate the cardiovascular effects of epicatechin, a flavonoid found in green tea and cocoa, in attenuating complications associated with metabolic syndrome in diet-induced obese rats. Male Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) rats aged 16 weeks were fed either standard rat chow or given a high-fat-high-carbohydrate (HFHC) diet for 20 weeks. Epicatechin treatment (5 mg/kg/d) was administered to a subset of WKY rats commencing at week 8 of the 20 week HFHC feeding period. Body weights, food, water and energy intakes, blood pressure, heart rate and glucose tolerance were measured throughout the treatment period. Oxidative stress and inflammatory markers, lipid levels, cardiac collagen deposition, cardiac electrical function, aortic and mesenteric vessel reactivity were examined after the treatment. Twenty weeks of HFHC feeding in WKY rats resulted in the development of metabolic syndrome indicated by the presence of abdominal obesity, dyslipidaemia, glucose intolerance and increased blood pressure. Epicatechin treatment was found to enhance the oxidative stress status in HFHC groups through an increase in serum nitric oxide levels and a decrease in 8-isoprostane concentrations. Furthermore, WKY-HFHC rats displayed a decrease in IL-6 levels. The lipid profiles in HFHC groups showed improvement, with a decrease in LDL-cholesterol and TAG and an increase in HDL-cholesterol levels observed in WKY-HFHC rats. However, epicatechin was not effective in preventing weight gain, glucose intolerance or hypertension in HFHC fed rats. Overall, the results of this study suggest that epicatechin has the potential to improve the underlying mechanisms associated with metabolic syndrome in obese rats.
Real-world data, such as administrative claims and electronic health records, are increasingly used for safety monitoring and to help guide regulatory decision-making. In these settings, it is important to document analytic decisions transparently and objectively to assess and ensure that analyses meet their intended goals.
Methods:
The Causal Roadmap is an established framework that can guide and document analytic decisions through each step of the analytic pipeline, which will help investigators generate high-quality real-world evidence.
Results:
In this paper, we illustrate the utility of the Causal Roadmap using two case studies previously led by workgroups sponsored by the Sentinel Initiative – a program for actively monitoring the safety of regulated medical products. Each case example focuses on different aspects of the analytic pipeline for drug safety monitoring. The first case study shows how the Causal Roadmap encourages transparency, reproducibility, and objective decision-making for causal analyses. The second case study highlights how this framework can guide analytic decisions beyond inference on causal parameters, improving outcome ascertainment in clinical phenotyping.
Conclusion:
These examples provide a structured framework for implementing the Causal Roadmap in safety surveillance and guide transparent, reproducible, and objective analysis.
This chapter is devoted to the optimal particle filter (OPF). Like the bootstrap particle filter (BPF) from the previous chapter, the OPF approximates the filtering distribution by a sum of Dirac masses. But while the BPF is conceptually derived by factorizing the update of the filtering distribution into a prediction and an analysis step, the OPF uses a different factorization which can result in improved performance.
In this chapter we introduce data assimilation problems in which the model of interest, and the data associated with it, have a time-ordered nature.We distinguish between the filtering problem (on-line) in which the data is incorporated sequentially as it comes in, and the smoothing problem (off-line) which is a specific instance of the inverse problems that have been the subject of the preceding chapters.
In this chapter we study the linear-Gaussian setting, where the forward model (·)is linear and both the prior on 𝑢 and the distribution of the observation noise 𝜂 are Gaussian. This setting is highly amenable to analysis and arises frequently in applications. Moreover, as we will see throughout these notes, many methods employed in nonlinear or non-Gaussian settings build on ideas from the linear- Gaussian case by performing linearization or invoking Gaussian approximations.
In this chapterwe describe the Extended Kalman Filter (ExKF)1 and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The ExKF approximates the predictive covariance by linearization, while the EnKF approximates it by the empirical covariance of a collection of particles. The ExKF is a provably accurate approximation of the filtering distribution if the dynamics are approximately linear and small noise is present in both signal and data, in which case the filtering distribution is well approximated by a Gaussian.