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The Puerto Rico Plain Pigeon Patagioenas inornata wetmorei suffered a severe population decline after hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017. We used distance sampling to estimate abundance (density and population size) in April–June 1986−2024, accounting for changes in detection probability. We used the distance-sampling abundance estimates to populate a Bayesian state–space logistic model and update posterior estimates of population carrying capacity, maximum population growth rate, population recovery time, and predicted abundance in April–June 2025−2034, accounting for observation and process variances. In addition, we used predicted abundance to assess potential extinction risk (probability Pr[N2025−2034 = 0|data]), population self-sustainability above 5,000 individuals (Pr[N2025−2034 >5,000|data]), and population surpassing the 2.5th percentile of carrying capacity (Pr[N2025−2034 >30,000|data]). The population has not recovered from the hurricanes, with estimated density averaging 0.0015 individuals/ha (bootstrapped standard error [SE] = 0.0006) and population size averaging 1,097 individuals (SE = 455) at the 749,000-ha survey region in April–June 2018−2024. Posterior mean estimates were 41,580 individuals (Markov Chain Monte Carlo standard deviation [SD] = 8,052) for population carrying capacity, 0.183 (SD = 0.056) for maximum population growth rate, six years (SD = 2) for recovery time, and 7,173 individuals (SD = 12,309) for predicted abundance in April–June 2025−2034. The population may reach self-sustainability levels (range Pr[N2025−2034 >5,000|data] = 0.326−0.631) but currently is undergoing a prolonged bottleneck and may become extinct (range Pr[N2025−2034 = 0|data] = 0.199−0.332), particularly if reproduction continues to be mostly unsuccessful, anthropogenic disturbances remain unabated, and on top of that another devastating hurricane makes landfall during the next 10 years. The Puerto Rico Plain Pigeon subspecies is in urgent need of management aiming to increase and maintain abundance above 5,000 individuals but preferably surpassing the 2.5th percentile of population carrying capacity as in the late 1990s (range Pr[N2025−2034 >30,000|data] = 0.000−0.181).
Achieving sustainability on the ground poses a challenge in decoding globally defined goals, such as sustainable development goals, and aligning them with local perspectives and realities. This decoding necessitates the understanding of the multifaceted dimensions of the sustainability challenges in a given context, including their underlying causes. In case studies from Brazilian drylands, we illustrate how an enhanced multiscale participatory method, combined with systems thinking tools, can shed light on systemic structures that currently entrench unsustainable development trajectories. This method offers insights into co-designing potential pathways toward sustainable futures and unlocking transformative capacities of the local population.
Technical summary
Translating United Nations global sustainable development goals (SDGs) into actions that address local realities and aspirations is an urgent challenge. It requires new thinking and approaches that foster the discussion about the main challenges to implementing the SDGs at multiple levels. This paper presents a novel multiscale participatory approach that combines the popular Three Horizons diagram with the formalism of causal loop diagrams in systems thinking. We present results from six multi-stakeholder dialogues held across drylands in Brazil with a focus on desired futures aligned with SDGs. Focusing on identifying the root causes and systemic structures of unsustainability, participants identified lock-ins, leverage points, and interventions for how these could be changed. The core lock-ins are the discontinuity of public policies, and the historical land and power concentration reinforced by the current expansion of large-scale agricultural, mining, and energy projects. The proposed interventions are structural and – if implemented – would contribute to achieving SDGs in an integrated manner. The unique approach developed in this study can provide leverage as it bridges the inclusivity of participatory visioning with the change potential of systems thinking tools to tackle root causes and unleash societal transformations.
Social media summary
We are not achieving SDGs. Understanding root causes of unsustainability is critical to move toward sustainable and just futures.
The course of depression is heterogeneous. The employed treatment is a key element in the impact of the course of depression over the time. However, there is currently a gap of knowledge about the trajectories per treatment and related baseline factors. We aimed to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms and associated baseline characteristics for two treatment arms in a randomized clinical trial: treatment as usual (TAU) or TAU plus transdiagnostic group cognitive behavioral therapy (TAU + TDG-CBT).
Methods
Growth mixture modeling (GMM) was used to identify trajectories of depressive symptoms over 12 months post-treatment. Logistic regression models were used to examine associations between baseline characteristics and trajectory class membership in 483 patients (TAU: 231; TAU + TDG-CBT: 251).
Results
We identified different patterns of symptom change in the randomized groups: two trajectories in TAU (‘improvement’ (71.4%) and ‘no improvement’ (28.6%)), and four trajectories in TAU + TDG-CBT (‘recovery’ (69.8%), ‘late recovery’ (5.95%), ‘chronicity’ (4.77%), and ‘relapse’ (19.44%)). Higher baseline symptom severity and comorbidity were associated with poorer treatment outcomes in both treatment groups and worse emotional regulation strategies were linked to the ‘no improvement trajectory’ in TAU. The TAU + TDG-CBT group demonstrated greater symptom reduction compared to TAU alone.
Conclusions
There is heterogeneity in treatment outcomes. Integration of TDG-CBT with TAU significantly improves symptom reduction compared to TAU alone. Patients with higher baseline severity and comorbidities show poorer outcomes. Identification of trajectories and related factors could assist clinicians in tailoring treatment strategies to optimize outcomes, particularly for patients with a worse prognosis.
One obstacle to the development of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for rare diseases (RDs) is the lack of scientific evidence. This can be partially overcome by involving patients in the development of CPGs. Our aim was to develop a process for involving patients with RDs in all stages of CPG development to ensure that their needs and expectations are addressed.
Methods
A literature search was conducted in the MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases and the websites of the European Organization for Rare Diseases, the National Organization for Rare Disorders, and INAHTA. Eligible articles reported methods for involving patients in CPGs, other clinical decision support tools, and research studies. A fit-for-purpose data extraction template was created to capture the following data: author, year, country, type of study, characteristics of the target population, and strategies for participation, engagement, and involvement of patients. Data were synthesized according to methods for recruiting, involving, or engaging patients and obtaining information from them. The entire process was performed by pairs of researchers.
Results
A total of 1,113 records were identified once duplicates were deleted. Of these, 55 were included. The review collected data on types of patients (patient representatives or patient experts) and their recruitment, which could be classified as open or nominated. The various involvement strategies included consultation, participation, and communication. Differences between involving and engaging patients in the CPGs development process were noted. Procedures for obtaining the opinion of patients included surveys, interviews, workshops, and focus groups, among others. The review also provided information on the importance of involving patients in the dissemination and implementation stages of CPG development and the methods for doing so.
Conclusions
When patients with RDs are actively involved in all phases of CPG development, they can contribute to the identification, prioritization, and inclusion of topics pertinent to RDs as questions to be addressed in the CPGs. These aspects might otherwise be overlooked by clinical experts and researchers. Therefore, involving patients with RDs is a promising approach to addressing gaps in the management of these diseases.
Mass Casualty Incidents (MCIs) pose significant challenges to health care systems, especially regarding emergency preparedness and response. This study aims to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and burden of MCIs in Spain from 2014 to 2022, focusing on the type, frequency, and impact of these incidents on public health and emergency services.
Methods
A population-based retrospective observational study examined MCIs in Spain between January 2014 and December 2022. Data were collected from various emergency services. Incidents involving 4 or more victims requiring medical assistance and ambulance mobilization were included. The study categorized MCIs into 5 types: road traffic accidents, fires and explosions, chemical poisonings, maritime accidents, and others.
Results
A total of 1618 MCIs resulting in 8556 victims were identified, averaging 15 (95% CI, 11-19) incidents per month, with 79% due to road traffic accidents and 13% to fires and explosions, which also had the highest average of 7.6 victims per incident. Despite maritime accidents comprising only 1.9% of incidents, they had the highest fatality rate. MCIs were more frequent on weekends, in January and July, and between 3:00 PM and 9:00 PM. The average response time was 38 minutes, with 35% of victims sustaining severe injuries.
Conclusions
Despite a slight decrease in annual MCIs from 2014 to 2022 in Spain, the trend is not statistically significant. The study highlights the need for a national registry and standardized data collection to enhance emergency preparedness and response planning and facilitate the reduction of the MCI burden.
The relevance of family relationships in the outcome of various disorders has been highlighted from different domains. Specifically, empirical studies on the relationship between the outcome of schizophrenia and various affective dimensions of family relationships have allowed the identification of particularly relevant aspects: criticism, hostility, and over-protection.
Aims:
The present study aims to adapt and validate an abbreviated Spanish version of the Influential Relationship Questionnaire (IRQ), an instrument that measures the patient’s own perception of the affective dimensions of family relationships.
Method:
Participants were 188 patients (63.8% male) of the Public Health Service in Andalusia (Spain) with a diagnosis of schizophrenia or a related disorder. One hundred and thirty-six participants provided data related to both father and mother, and 52 only related to mother or father, so the analyses were carried out with a total of 324 questionnaires. Simultaneously, in 130 participants, the Perceived Criticism Scale was applied, and in 50 cases, relatives were asked to complete the Family Attitudes Scale.
Results:
Principal component analysis allowed for the identification of four factors that explained 61.53% of the total variance (criticism, over-protection, restriction, and care). The values of Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, as well as the omega coefficient, showed high consistency. The temporal reliability for an interval of 3 months was high. The correlations between the IRQ dimensions and the other variables included in the study were significant and in the expected direction.
Conclusions:
The results support the reliability and validity of the abbreviated version of the IRQ.
There is heterogeneity in the long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms among patients. To date, there has been little effort to inform the long-term trajectory of symptom change and the factors associated with different trajectories. Such knowledge is key to treatment decision-making in primary care, where depression is a common reason for consultation. We aimed to identify distinct long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms and explore pre-treatment characteristics associated with them.
Methods
A total of 483 patients from the PsicAP clinical trial were included. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify long-term distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms, and multinomial logistic regression models to explore associations between pre-treatment characteristics and trajectories.
Results
Four trajectories were identified that best explained the observed response patterns: “recovery” (64.18%), “late recovery” (10.15%), “relapse” (13.67%), and “chronicity” (12%). There was a higher likelihood of following the recovery trajectory for patients who had received psychological treatment in addition to the treatment as usual. Chronicity was associated with higher depressive severity, comorbidity (generalized anxiety, panic, and somatic symptoms), taking antidepressants, higher emotional suppression, lower levels on life quality, and being older. Relapse was associated with higher depressive severity, somatic symptoms, and having basic education, and late recovery was associated with higher depressive severity, generalized anxiety symptoms, greater disability, and rumination.
Conclusions
There were different trajectories of depressive course and related prognostic factors among the patients. However, further research is needed before these findings can significantly influence care decisions.
Research concerning transactions in the early first millennium bc in the westernmost Mediterranean has tended to focus on colonial coastlands occupied by scattered Levantine outposts, whereas cross-cultural interactions in hinterland regions have remained ill-defined. This article presents an assemblage of Egyptian vitreous artefacts, namely beads, a Hathor amulet, and further items from the seventh-century bc rural village of Cerro de San Vicente (Salamanca) in the interior of Spain. Macroscopic and chemical analyses demonstrate their likely manufacture in Egypt during the Middle and New Kingdom (second millennium bc), attesting to a far-reaching Phoenician maritime network that connected both ends of the Mediterranean. The authors interpret the items as liturgical objects, rather than mere high-status trinkets, that formed part of a widely shared Mediterranean world view and associated ritual mores. They consider the impact of cultural syncretism, which reached even remote and allegedly isolated peripheral settings in Iberia.
Exploring the phylogenetic signal of morphological traits using geometric morphometry represents a powerful approach to assess the relative weights of convergence and shared evolutionary history in shaping species' forms. We evaluated the phylogenetic signal in shape and size of ventral and dorsal haptoral anchors of 10 species of monogenoids (Hamatopeduncularia, Chauhanellus and Susanlimocotyle) occurring in marine catfish (Siluriformes: Ariidae) from the Atlantic coast of South America. The phylogenetic relationships among these species were mapped onto the morphospaces of shape and size of dorsal and ventral anchors. Two different tests (squared change-parsimony and Kmult) were applied to establish whether the spatial positions in the phylomorphospace were influenced by phylogenetic relationships. A significant phylogenetic signal was found between anchor form and parasite phylogeny. Allometric effects on anchor shape were non-significant. Phylogenetically distant species on the same host differed markedly in anchor morphology, suggesting little influence of host species on anchor form. A significantly higher level of shape variation among ventral anchors was also found, suggesting that the evolutionary forces shaping ventral anchor morphology may operate with differing intensities or exhibit distinct mechanisms compared to their dorsal counterparts. Our results suggest that phylogenetic relationships were a key driver of changes in shape (but not size) of anchors of monogenoids of South American ariids. However, it seems that the emergence of the digitiform haptor in Hamatopenducularia and in some species of Chauhanellus played an important role in the reduction in anchor size and may cause secondary losses of anchors in other groups of monogenoids.
Relatively few examples of Palaeohispanic writing have been recovered from the Vasconic territories of present-day Navarre, leading to the assumption that the Vascones were a pre-literate society. Here, the authors report on an inscription on a bronze hand recovered at the Iron Age site of Irulegi (Aranguren Valley, Navarre) in northern Spain. Its detailed linguistic analysis suggests that the script represents a graphic subsystem of Palaeohispanic that shares its roots with the modern Basque language and constitutes the first example of Vasconic epigraphy. The text inscribed on this artefact, which was found at the entrance of a domestic building, is interpreted as apotropaic, a token entreating good fortune.
Polygenic risk scores for educational attainment (PRSEA), cognitive reserve (CR), and clinical symptoms are associated with functioning in first-episode psychosis (FEP). Nevertheless, the mechanisms underlying their complex interaction are yet to be explored. This study assessed the mediating role of CR and clinical symptoms, both negative (NS) and positive (PS), on the interrelationship between PRSEA and functionality, one year after a FEP.
Methods
A total of 162 FEP patients underwent clinical, functional, and genetic assessments. Using genome-wide association study summary results, PRSEA were constructed for each individual. Two mediation models were performed. The parallel mediation model explored the relationship of PRSEA with functionality through CR and clinical symptoms. The serial mediation model tested a causal chain of the three mediators: CR, NS, and PS. Mediation analysis was performed using the PROCESS function V.4.1 in SPSS V.22.
Results
A serial mediation model revealed a causal chain for PRSEA > CR > NS > Functionality (β = −0.35, 95%CI [−0.85, −0.04], p < 0.05). The model fit the data satisfactorily (CFI = 1.00; RMSEA = 0.00; SRMR = 7.2 × 10−7). Conversely, no parallel mediation was found between the three mediators, PRSEA and functionality and the model poorly fit the data (CFI = 0.30; RMSEA = 0.25; SRMR = 0.11).
Conclusions
Both CR and NS mediate the relationship between PRSEA and functionality at one-year follow-up, using serial mediation analysis. This may be relevant for prevention and personalized early intervention to reduce illness impact and improve functional outcomes in FEP patients.
Patients with a first episode of psychosis (FEP) display clinical, cognitive, and structural brain abnormalities at illness onset. Ventricular enlargement has been identified in schizophrenia since the initial development of neuroimaging techniques. Obstetric abnormalities have been associated with an increased risk of developing psychosis but also with cognitive impairment and brain structure abnormalities. Difficulties during delivery are associated with a higher risk of birth asphyxia leading to brain structural abnormalities, such as ventriculomegaly, which has been related to cognitive disturbances.
Methods
We examined differences in ventricular size between 142 FEP patients and 123 healthy control participants using magnetic resonance imaging. Obstetric complications were evaluated using the Lewis–Murray scale. We examined the impact of obstetric difficulties during delivery on ventricle size as well as the possible relationship between ventricle size and cognitive impairment in both groups.
Results
FEP patients displayed significantly larger third ventricle size compared with healthy controls. Third ventricle enlargement was associated with diagnosis (higher volume in patients), with difficulties during delivery (higher volume in subjects with difficulties), and was highest in patients with difficulties during delivery. Verbal memory was significantly associated with third ventricle to brain ratio.
Conclusions
Our results suggest that difficulties during delivery might be significant contributors to the ventricular enlargement historically described in schizophrenia. Thus, obstetric complications may contribute to the development of psychosis through changes in brain architecture.
Ancho (width) chile peppers have economic, social, culinary and cultural importance in Mexico and worldwide. This chile type considers divergent subtypes that altogether have not been analysed and therefore their morphological diversity has not been systematically described. The objectives were to describe the morphological diversity of ancho pepper landraces from Mexico, to identify groups of similarity and to define the traits with the higher contribution to the total variation. Eighty-six landraces of ancho chile peppers (red, ‘mulatos’, ‘miahuatecos’, ‘cristalinos’ and ‘huacle’), collected in six states of Mexico, and two commercial controls were evaluated in two localities, in a simple randomized complete block experimental design. We recorded 76 morphological traits. Statistical analysis included a combined ANOVA, Pearson's correlation coefficient, discriminant analysis, principal components and clusters. The morphological diversity in ancho chile peppers was mainly made up of fruit width, fruit wall thickness, stem diameter, corolla length, seed weight per fruit, plant height, stem length and pubescence. We defined four groups, which made it possible to differentiate ancho chile peppers of Puebla and the huacle chile pepper of Oaxaca from populations collected in the north and ‘Bajío’ (midland) parts of Mexico. Ancho chile peppers of Mexico showed wide morphological differences according to the type of chile pepper and seed collection regions. The traits that contributed the greatest morphological diversity were fruit width, fruit wall thickness, stem diameter, corolla length, seed weight per fruit, plant height, stem length and pubescence.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has serious physiological and psychological consequences. The long-term (>12 weeks post-infection) impact of COVID-19 on mental health, specifically in older adults, is unclear. We longitudinally assessed the association of COVID-19 with depression symptomatology in community-dwelling older adults with metabolic syndrome within the framework of the PREDIMED-Plus cohort.
Methods
Participants (n = 5486) aged 55–75 years were included in this longitudinal cohort. COVID-19 status (positive/negative) determined by tests (e.g. polymerase chain reaction severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, IgG) was confirmed via event adjudication (410 cases). Pre- and post-COVID-19 depressive symptomatology was ascertained from annual assessments conducted using a validated 21-item Spanish Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). Multivariable linear and logistic regression models assessed the association between COVID-19 and depression symptomatology.
Results
COVID-19 in older adults was associated with higher post-COVID-19 BDI-II scores measured at a median (interquartile range) of 29 (15–40) weeks post-infection [fully adjusted β = 0.65 points, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.15–1.15; p = 0.011]. This association was particularly prominent in women (β = 1.38 points, 95% CI 0.44–2.33, p = 0.004). COVID-19 was associated with 62% increased odds of elevated depression risk (BDI-II ≥ 14) post-COVID-19 when adjusted for confounders (odds ratio; 95% CI 1.13–2.30, p = 0.008).
Conclusions
COVID-19 was associated with long-term depression risk in older adults with overweight/obesity and metabolic syndrome, particularly in women. Thus, long-term evaluations of the impact of COVID-19 on mental health and preventive public health initiatives are warranted in older adults.
The aim of this study is to contribute to the evidence regarding variables related to emotional symptom severity and to use them to exemplify the potential usefulness of logistic regression for clinical assessment at primary care, where most of these disorders are treated. Cross-sectional data related to depression and anxiety symptoms, sociodemographic characteristics, quality of life (QoL), and emotion-regulation processes were collected from 1,704 primary care patients. Correlation and analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests were conducted to identify those variables associated with both depression and anxiety. Participants were then divided into severe and nonsevere emotional symptoms, and binomial logistic regression was used to identify the variables that contributed the most to classify the severity. The final adjusted model included psychological QoL (p < .001, odds ratio [OR] = .426, 95% CI [.318, .569]), negative metacognitions (p < .001, OR = 1.083, 95% CI [1.045, 1.122]), physical QoL (p < .001, OR = .870, 95% CI [.841, .900]), brooding rumination (p < .001, OR = 1.087, 95% CI [1.042, 1.133]), worry (p < .001, OR = 1.047, 95% CI [1.025, 1.070]), and employment status (p = .022, OR [.397, 2.039]) as independent variables, ρ2 = .326, area under the curve (AUC) = .857. Moreover, rumination and psychological QoL emerged as the best predictors to form a simplified equation to determine the emotional symptom severity (ρ2 = .259, AUC = .822). The use of statistical models like this could accelerate the assessment and treatment-decision process, depending less on the subjective point of view of clinicians and optimizing health care resources.
Peru’s health infrastructures, particularly hospitals, are exposed to disaster threats of different natures. Traditionally, earthquakes have been the main disaster in terms of physical and structural vulnerability, but the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has also shown their functional vulnerability. Public hospitals in Lima are very different in terms of year constructed, type of construction, and number of floors, making them highly vulnerable to earthquakes. In addition, they are subject to a high demand for care daily. Therefore, if a major earthquake were to occur in Lima, the hospitals would not have the capacity to respond to the high demand.
Objective:
The aim of this study was to analyze the Hospital Safety Index (HSI) in hospitals in Lima (Peru).
Materials and Methods:
This was a cross-sectional observational study of 18 state-run hospitals that met the inclusion criteria; open access data were collected for the indicators proposed by the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Version 1. Associations between variables were calculated using the chi-square test, considering a confidence level of 95%. A P value less than .05 was considered to determine statistical significance.
Results:
The average bed occupancy rate was 90%, the average age was 70 years, on average had one bed per 25,126 inhabitants, and HSI average score was 0.36 with a vulnerability of 0.63. No association was found between HSI and hospital characteristics.
Conclusion:
Most of the hospitals were considered Category C in earthquake and disaster safety, and only one hospital was Category A. The hospital situation needs to be clarified, and the specific deficiencies of each institution need to be identified and addressed according to their own characteristics and context.
Edited by
Dennis S. Chi, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York,Nisha Lakhi, Richmond University Medical Center, Staten Island,Nicoletta Colombo, University of Milan-Bicocca
Surgery is considered a cornerstone in the treatment of advanced ovarian cancer. The absence of macroscopic residual tumor at the end of surgery is associated with a better outcome in primary debulking surgery and secondary cytoreduction for patients with a first relapse. Despite the absence of randomized clinical trials in the front-line setting, nobody questions the value of surgery in the initial management of primary advanced ovarian cancer due to extensive data showing a clear benefit in overall survival of complete cytoreduction after primary debulking surgery and interval debulking surgery. In the first relapse, three randomized clinical trials have produced apparently contradictory results. It is important to mention (for the best understanding of the question that we are dealing with), that only the studies including clearly defined selection criteria for cytoreduction, AGO-OVAR DESKTOP-III and SOC1, have produced a positive result in terms of progression-free survival. In addition, the AGO-OVAR study has also shown a benefit in overall survival.
Edited by
Dennis S. Chi, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York,Nisha Lakhi, Richmond University Medical Center, Staten Island,Nicoletta Colombo, University of Milan-Bicocca
Maintenance therapy with oral PARP inhibitors has been demonstrated to significantly expand the progression-free survival of patients with advanced HGSOC in response to front-line platinum-based chemotherapy. Currently, three options have been approved for patients with BRCAmut tumors (Olaparib, niraparib, or Olaparib-bevacizumab) and two options for patients with BRCAwt/HRD tumors (niraparib or Olaparib and bevacizumab). The reason for the controversy we are discussing in this chapter is the lack of evidence from randomized trials comparing single-agent PARPi versus PARP-i combined with bevacizumab. Both strategies have shown similar benefits in the hazard ratio, but medians are not comparable due to the different patient populations included and differences in tumor assessment. Nevertheless, several arguments support the single-PARPi option as the preferred one.
During the early first millennium BC, Phoenician peoples settled the Iberian coasts instigating cultural innovations known as the orientalising; indigenous communities of the interior have long been considered as passively dependent on, or isolated from, these developments. Recent excavations at the Early Iron Age village of Cerro de San Vicente in central Spain, however, have yielded domestic contexts that prompt reconsideration of this relationship. The authors use settlement layout, architecture and locally made tablewares to identify heterarchical organisation around virilocal and bilateral kinship and hybrid practices that attest to adoption of know-how and practices from distant places. Emphasis is placed on the role of embodied craftworking skills and female mobility in transculturation processes.