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Negative symptoms are a key feature of several psychiatric disorders. Difficulty identifying common neurobiological mechanisms that cut across diagnostic boundaries might result from equifinality (i.e., multiple mechanistic pathways to the same clinical profile), both within and across disorders. This study used a data-driven approach to identify unique subgroups of participants with distinct reward processing profiles to determine which profiles predicted negative symptoms.
Participants were a transdiagnostic sample of youth from a multisite study of psychosis risk, including 110 individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR; meeting psychosis-risk syndrome criteria), 88 help-seeking participants who failed to meet CHR criteria and/or who presented with other psychiatric diagnoses, and a reference group of 66 healthy controls. Participants completed clinical interviews and behavioral tasks assessing four reward processing constructs indexed by the RDoC Positive Valence Systems: hedonic reactivity, reinforcement learning, value representation, and effort–cost computation.
k-means cluster analysis of clinical participants identified three subgroups with distinct reward processing profiles, primarily characterized by: a value representation deficit (54%), a generalized reward processing deficit (17%), and a hedonic reactivity deficit (29%). Clusters did not differ in rates of clinical group membership or psychiatric diagnoses. Elevated negative symptoms were only present in the generalized deficit cluster, which also displayed greater functional impairment and higher psychosis conversion probability scores.
Contrary to the equifinality hypothesis, results suggested one global reward processing deficit pathway to negative symptoms independent of diagnostic classification. Assessment of reward processing profiles may have utility for individualized clinical prediction and treatment.
A very short range forecasting system has been developed which integrates nowcasting techniques with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model products to provide forecasts over the UK and surrounding waters up to six hours ahead. There are three main components, producing analyses and forecasts of precipitation, cloud and visibility, respectively. The precipitation rate analysis uses processed radar and satellite data, together with surface reports and NWP fields. The forecast is based on an object advection technique, modified for growth and decay using model products. Related variables, such as precipitation type, are also diagnosed using the NWP fields. The cloud analysis is based largely on satellite imagery and surface reports, the forecast being carried out in a similar way to precipitation rate. The visibility analysis combines surface reports with NWP model fields and satellite imagery: Meteosat during the day and NOAA-AVHRR at night. The forecast is an extrapolation using trends from the NWP model, and relaxing towards the model values themselves. Results show a substantial improvement over both persistence and raw NWP model products.
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