The Personalized Advantage Index (PAI) shows promise as a method for identifying the most effective treatment for individual patients. Previous studies have demonstrated its utility in retrospective evaluations across various settings. In this study, we explored the effect of different methodological choices in predictive modelling underlying the PAI.

Our approach involved a two-step procedure. First, we conducted a review of prior studies utilizing the PAI, evaluating each study using the Prediction model study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). We specifically assessed whether the studies adhered to two standards of predictive modeling: refraining from using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO CV) and preventing data leakage. Second, we examined the impact of deviating from these methodological standards in real data. We employed both a traditional approach violating these standards and an advanced approach implementing them in two large-scale datasets, PANIC-net (n = 261) and Protect-AD (n = 614).

The PROBAST-rating revealed a substantial risk of bias across studies, primarily due to inappropriate methodological choices. Most studies did not adhere to the examined prediction modeling standards, employing LOO CV and allowing data leakage. The comparison between the traditional and advanced approach revealed that ignoring these standards could systematically overestimate the utility of the PAI.

Our study cautions that violating standards in predictive modeling may strongly influence the evaluation of the PAI's utility, possibly leading to false positive results. To support an unbiased evaluation, crucial for potential clinical application, we provide a low-bias, openly accessible, and meticulously annotated script implementing the PAI.

The avoidance of asthma triggers, like tobacco smoke, facilitates asthma management. Reliance upon caregiver report of their child’s environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure may result in information bias and impaired asthma management. This analysis aimed to characterize the chronicity of ETS exposure, assess the validity of caregiver report of ETS exposure, and investigate the relationship between ETS exposure and asthma attack.

A secondary data analysis was performed on data from a longitudinal study of 162 children aged 7–12 years with asthma living in federally subsidized housing in three US cities (Boston, Cincinnati, and New Orleans). Data were collected at three time points over 1 year.

Over 90% of children were exposed to ETS (≥0.25 ng/ml of urine cotinine (UC)). Exposure was consistent over 1 year. Questionnaire data had a sensitivity of 28–34% using UC ≥0.25 ng/ml as the gold standard. High ETS exposure (UC ≥ 30 ng/ml) was significantly associated with asthma attack (aOR 2.97, 0.93–9.52, p = 0.07). Lower levels (UC 0.25–30 ng/ml) were not statistically significant (aOR 1.76, 0.71– 4.38, p = 0.22). No association was found using caregiver-reported ETS exposure.

Relying on questionnaire data to assess children’s exposure to tobacco smoke may lead to substantial information bias. For children with asthma, incorrect characterization may substantially impact asthma morbidity.

Individuals at risk for bipolar disorder (BD) have a wide range of genetic and non-genetic risk factors, like a positive family history of BD or (sub)threshold affective symptoms. Yet, it is unclear whether these individuals at risk and those diagnosed with BD share similar gray matter brain alterations.

In 410 male and female participants aged 17–35 years, we compared gray matter volume (3T MRI) between individuals at risk for BD (as assessed using the EPIbipolar scale; n = 208), patients with a DSM-IV-TR diagnosis of BD (n = 87), and healthy controls (n = 115) using voxel-based morphometry in SPM12/CAT12. We applied conjunction analyses to identify similarities in gray matter volume alterations in individuals at risk and BD patients, relative to healthy controls. We also performed exploratory whole-brain analyses to identify differences in gray matter volume among groups. ComBat was used to harmonize imaging data from seven sites.

Both individuals at risk and BD patients showed larger volumes in the right putamen than healthy controls. Furthermore, individuals at risk had smaller volumes in the right inferior occipital gyrus, and BD patients had larger volumes in the left precuneus, compared to healthy controls. These findings were independent of course of illness (number of lifetime manic and depressive episodes, number of hospitalizations), comorbid diagnoses (major depressive disorder, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety disorder, eating disorder), familial risk, current disease severity (global functioning, remission status), and current medication intake.

Our findings indicate that alterations in the right putamen might constitute a vulnerability marker for BD.

Schizotypy represents an index of psychosis-proneness in the general population, often associated with childhood trauma exposure. Both schizotypy and childhood trauma are linked to structural brain alterations, and it is possible that trauma exposure moderates the extent of brain morphological differences associated with schizotypy.

We addressed this question using data from a total of 1182 healthy adults (age range: 18–65 years old, 647 females/535 males), pooled from nine sites worldwide, contributing to the Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA) Schizotypy working group. All participants completed both the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire Brief version (SPQ-B), and the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire (CTQ), and underwent a 3D T1-weighted brain MRI scan from which regional indices of subcortical gray matter volume and cortical thickness were determined.

A series of multiple linear regressions revealed that differences in cortical thickness in four regions-of-interest were significantly associated with interactions between schizotypy and trauma; subsequent moderation analyses indicated that increasing levels of schizotypy were associated with thicker left caudal anterior cingulate gyrus, right middle temporal gyrus and insula, and thinner left caudal middle frontal gyrus, in people exposed to higher (but not low or average) levels of childhood trauma. This was found in the context of morphological changes directly associated with increasing levels of schizotypy or increasing levels of childhood trauma exposure.

These results suggest that alterations in brain regions critical for higher cognitive and integrative processes that are associated with schizotypy may be enhanced in individuals exposed to high levels of trauma.