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The one bad apple spoiling the whole barrel has become a common metaphor used with reference to risk culture in organisations. This “inside-out” perspective begins with the individual as the unit of analysis and follows with inferences to the broader environment. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, risk culture for many has become the explanation for shortcomings, poor decisions, and moral failures in organisations. This volume presents an institutional perspective of the forces that shape risk culture, and culture more generally, in organisations through a multi-disciplinary examination from a variety of leading academics and subject specialists. The authors demonstrate that firms play a role as manufacturers and managers of risk and they challenge common conceptions that attribute risk to chance circumstances or rogue behaviours. The foundational concepts needed for an institutional view of risk culture are highlighted with subsequent links to significant developments within society and firms.
We provide a new framework for valuing multidimensional real options where opportunities to exercise the option are generated by an exogenous Poisson process, which can be viewed as a liquidity constraint on decision times. This approach, which we call the Poisson optional stopping times (POST) method, finds the value function as a monotone sequence of lower bounds. In a case study, we demonstrate that the frequently used quasi-analytic method yields a suboptimal policy and an inaccurate value function. The proposed method is demonstrably correct, straightforward to implement, reliable in computation, and broadly applicable in analyzing multidimensional option-valuation problems.
Combining additive manufacturing (AM) with carbon fiber reinforced polymer patched composites unlocks potentials in the design of individualized, lightweight biomedical structures. Arising design opportunities are geometrical individualization of structures using the design freedom of AM and the patient-individual design of the load-bearing components employing carbon fiber patch placement. To date, however, full exploitation of these opportunities is a complex recurring task, which requires a high amount of knowledge and engineering effort for design, optimization, and manufacturing. The goal of this study is to make this complexity manageable by introducing a suitable manufacturing strategy for individualized lightweight structures and by developing a digitized end-to-end design process chain, which provides a high degree of task automation. The approach to achieve full individualization uses a parametric model of the structure which is adapted to patients’ 3D scans. Moreover, patient data is used to define individual load cases and perform structural optimization. The potentials of the approach are demonstrated on an exoskeleton hip structure. A significant reduction of weight compared to a standard design suggests that the design and manufacturing chain is promising for the realization of individualized high-performance structures.
This study investigated the characteristics of subjective memory complaints (SMCs) and their association with current and future cognitive functions.
A cohort of 209 community-dwelling individuals without dementia aged 47–90 years old was recruited for this 3-year study. Participants underwent neuropsychological and clinical assessments annually. Participants were divided into SMCs and non-memory complainers (NMCs) using a single question at baseline and a memory complaints questionnaire following baseline, to evaluate differential patterns of complaints. In addition, comprehensive assessment of memory complaints was undertaken to evaluate whether severity and consistency of complaints differentially predicted cognitive function.
SMC and NMC individuals were significantly different on various features of SMCs. Greater overall severity (but not consistency) of complaints was significantly associated with current and future cognitive functioning.
SMC individuals present distinctive features of memory complaints as compared to NMCs. Further, the severity of complaints was a significant predictor of future cognition. However, SMC did not significantly predict change over time in this sample. These findings warrant further research into the specific features of SMCs that may portend subsequent neuropathological and cognitive changes when screening individuals at increased future risk of dementia.
Based on seven measured sections from Svalbard, the marine strata of the Permian Kapp Starostin Formation are arranged into seven transgressive–regressive sequences (TR1–TR7) of c. 4–5 Ma average duration, each bound by a maximum regressive surface. Facies, including heterozoan-dominated limestones, spiculitic cherts, sandstones, siltstones and shales, record deposition within inner, middle and outer shelf areas. The lowermost sequence, TR1, comprises most of the basal Vøringen Member, which records a transgression across the Gipshuken Formation following a hiatus of unknown duration. Temperate to cold, storm-dominated facies established in inner to middle shelf areas between the latest Artinskian and Kungurian. Prolonged deepening during sequences TR2 and TR3 was succeeded by a long-term shallowing-upward trend that lasted until the latest Permian (TR4–TR7). A major depocentre existed in central and western Spitsbergen while to the north, Dickson Land remained a shallow platform, leading to a shallow homoclinal ramp in NE Spitsbergen and Nordaustlandet. The Middle Permian extinction (late Capitanian) is recorded near the base of TR6 in deeper parts of the basin only; elsewhere this sequence is not recorded. Likewise the youngest sequence, TR7, extending to the upper formational contact of latest Permian age, is found only in the basin depocentre. Comparison with age-equivalent strata in the Sverdrup Basin of Canada reveals a remarkably similar depositional history, with, for example, two (third-order) sea-level cycles recorded in the Late Permian of both regions, in keeping with the global record. Sequence stratigraphy may therefore be a powerful correlative tool for onshore and offshore Permian deposits across NW Pangaea.
Defensive chemicals in anuran skin secretions function in protection against potential predators. Although studies have demonstrated that particular chemicals are effective against certain predators, very little is known about how different chemicals from different species function against the same predators. Understanding how different chemicals function as a defence against similar predators is fundamental to the ecology and evolution of chemical defences in frogs. In the present study, the defensive function of bufadienolide-based defences in adult Rhaebo haematiticus (Bufonidae) were compared with alkaloid-based defences in adult and juvenile Dendrobates auratus (Dendrobatidae) against the same predators. Most bufonids contain synthesized bufadienolides, whereas dendrobatids contain dietary-derived alkaloids. Predation trials were performed with two potential invertebrate predators, Paraponera clavata (bullet ant) and Cupiennius coccineus (ctenid spider), to determine how these predators respond to two different types of frog chemical defence. The non-chemically defended frog Craugastor fitzingeri served as a control in all predation trials. Our results suggest that bufadienolide defences of R. haematiticus and alkaloid defences of D. auratus are equally effective towards bullet ant and ctenid spider predators. The similar avoidance and cleaning behaviours exhibited by these ants and spiders after contact with bufadienolides and alkaloids suggest that both types of defence are unpalatable to these arthropod predators.
We describe a hybrid pixel array detector (electron microscope pixel array detector, or EMPAD) adapted for use in electron microscope applications, especially as a universal detector for scanning transmission electron microscopy. The 128×128 pixel detector consists of a 500 µm thick silicon diode array bump-bonded pixel-by-pixel to an application-specific integrated circuit. The in-pixel circuitry provides a 1,000,000:1 dynamic range within a single frame, allowing the direct electron beam to be imaged while still maintaining single electron sensitivity. A 1.1 kHz framing rate enables rapid data collection and minimizes sample drift distortions while scanning. By capturing the entire unsaturated diffraction pattern in scanning mode, one can simultaneously capture bright field, dark field, and phase contrast information, as well as being able to analyze the full scattering distribution, allowing true center of mass imaging. The scattering is recorded on an absolute scale, so that information such as local sample thickness can be directly determined. This paper describes the detector architecture, data acquisition system, and preliminary results from experiments with 80–200 keV electron beams.
The effect of Hybrid stage 1 palliation for hypoplastic left heart syndrome on right ventricular function is unknown. We sought to compare right ventricular function in normal neonates and those with hypoplastic left heart syndrome before Hybrid palliation and to assess the effect of Hybrid palliation on right ventricular function, using the right ventricular myocardial performance index and the ratio of systolic and diastolic durations.
We carried out a retrospective review of echocardiographic data on 23 infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome who underwent Hybrid palliation and 35 normal controls. Data were acquired before Hybrid and after Hybrid palliation – post 1, 0–4 days; post 2, 1 week; post 3, 2–3 weeks; post 4, 1–1.5 months following Hybrid palliation.
Myocardial performance index and ratio of systolic and diastolic durations were higher in the pre-Hybrid hypoplastic left heart syndrome group (n=23) – 0.47±0.16 versus 0.25±0.07, p<0.001; 1.59±0.44 versus 1.09±0.14, p<0.0001 – compared with controls (n=35). There was no significant change in the myocardial performance index at any of the post-Hybrid time points. Ratio of systolic and diastolic durations increased significantly 2 weeks after Hybrid – post 3: 2.08±0.62 and post 4: 2.21±0.45 versus pre: 1.59±0.44, p=0.043 and 0.003. There were no significant differences in parameters between sub-groups of infants who died (n=10) and survivors (n=13).
Right ventricular myocardial performance index and ratio of systolic and diastolic durations were significantly higher in infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome before intervention compared with controls. The ratio of systolic and diastolic durations increased significantly 2 weeks after Hybrid palliation. Our data suggest that infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome have right ventricular dysfunction before intervention, which worsens over 2 weeks after Hybrid palliation.
Radio-loud AGN play an important rôle in galaxy evolution. We need to understand their properties, and the processes that affect their behaviour in order to model galaxy formation and development. We here present preliminary results of an investigation into the cluster environments of radio galaxies. We have found evidence of a strong correlation between radio luminosity and environment richness for low excitation radio galaxies, and no evidence of evolution of the environment with redshift. Conversely, for high excitation radio galaxies, we found no correlation with environment richness, and tentative evidence of evolution of the cluster environment.
We propose an approach to analysing the asymptotic behaviour of Pólya urns based on the contraction method. For this, a new combinatorial discrete-time embedding of the evolution of the urn into random rooted trees is developed. A decomposition of these trees leads to a system of recursive distributional equations which capture the distributions of the numbers of balls of each colour. Ideas from the contraction method are used to study such systems of recursive distributional equations asymptotically. We apply our approach to a couple of concrete Pólya urns that lead to limit laws with normal limit distributions, with non-normal limit distributions and with asymptotic periodic distributional behaviour.
Stars are born in turbulent, magnetized filamentary molecular clouds, typically as members of star clusters. Several remarkable technical advances enable observations of magnetic structure and field strengths across many physical scales, from galactic scales on which giant molecular clouds (GMCs) are assembled, down to the surfaces of magnetized accreting young stars. These are shedding new light on the role of magnetic fields in star formation. Magnetic fields affect the gravitational fragmentation and formation of filamentary molecular clouds, the formation and fragmentation of magnetized disks, and finally to the shedding of excess angular momentum in jets and outflows from both the disks and young stars. Magnetic fields play a particularly important role in angular momentum transport on all of these scales. Numerical simulations have provided an important tool for tracking the complex process of the collapse and evolution of protostellar gas since several competing physical processes are at play - turbulence, gravity, MHD, and radiation fields. This paper focuses on the role of magnetic fields in three crucial regimes of star formation: the formation of star clusters emphasizing fragmentation, disk formation and the origin of early jets and outflows, to processes that control the spin evolution of young stars.
The cyclooctadepsipeptide PF1022A and the aminophenylamidines amidantel, deacylated amidantel (dAMD) and tribendimidine were tested as examples for drug classes potentially interesting for development as anthelmintics against human helminthiases. These compounds and levamisole were tested alone and in combination to determine their efficacy against the rat hookworm Nippostrongylus brasiliensis. After three oral treatments, intestinal worms were counted. Drug effects on parasite morphology were studied using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Plasma pharmacokinetics were determined for tribendimidine and dAMD. All drugs reduced worm burden in a dose-dependent manner, however amidantel was significantly less active than the other aminophenylamidines. Combinations of tribendimidine and dAMD with levamisole or PF1022A at suboptimal doses revealed additive effects. While PF1022A caused virtually no changes in morphology, levamisole, dAMD and tribendimidine caused severe contraction, particularly in the hind body region. Worms exposed to combinations of PF1022A and aminophenylamidines were indistinguishable from worms exposed only to aminophenylamidines. After oral treatment with tribendimidine, only the active metabolite dAMD was detectable in plasma and concentrations were not significantly different for oral treatment with dAMD. The results support further evaluation of cyclooctadepsipeptides alone and in combination with cholinergic drugs to improve efficacy. Combining these with registered drugs may help to prevent development of resistance.
Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges.
A major transformation is therefore required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic future consequences for human and planetary systems. The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) demonstrates that energy system change is the key for addressing and resolving these challenges. The GEA identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits. Their successful implementation requires determined, sustained and immediate action.
Transformative change in the energy system may not be internally generated; due to institutional inertia, incumbency and lack of capacity and agility of existing organizations to respond effectively to changing conditions. In such situations clear and consistent external policy signals may be required to initiate and sustain the transformative change needed to meet the sustainability challenges of the 21st century.
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity onto an explosive development path, whereby, reliance on muscle power and traditional biomass was replaced mostly by fossil fuels. In 2005, some 78% of global energy was based on fossil energy sources that provided abundant and ever cheaper energy services to more than half the people in the world.
Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic, and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace, and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges.
In this context, two considerations are important. The first is the capacity and agility of the players within the energy system to seize opportunities in response to these challenges. The second is the response capacity of the energy system itself, as the investments are long-term and tend to follow standard financial patterns, mainly avoiding risks and price instabilities. This traditional approach does not embrace the transformation needed to respond properly to the economic, environmental, and social sustainability challenges of the 21st century.
A major transformation is required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for human and planetary systems. The GEA identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits. Their successful implementation requires determined, sustained, and immediate action.
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity onto an explosive development path, whereby reliance on muscle power and traditional biomass was replaced mostly by fossil fuels. In 2005, approximately 78% of global energy was based on fossil energy sources that provided abundant and ever cheaper energy services to more than half the world's population.