Objectives/Goals: Aspiration causes or aggravates lung diseases. While bedside swallow evaluations are not sensitive/specific, gold standard tests for aspiration are invasive, uncomfortable, expose patients to radiation, and are resource intensive. We propose the development and validation of an AI model that analyzes voice to noninvasively predict aspiration. Methods/Study Population: Retrospectively recorded [i] phonations from 163 unique ENT patients were analyzed for acoustic features including jitter, shimmer, harmonic to noise ratio (HNR), etc. Patients were classified into three groups: aspirators (Penetration-Aspiration Scale, PAS 6–8), probable (PAS 3–5), and non-aspirators (PAS 1–2) based on video fluoroscopic swallow (VFSS) findings. Multivariate analysis evaluated patient demographics, history of head and neck surgery, radiation, neurological illness, obstructive sleep apnea, esophageal disease, body mass index, and vocal cord dysfunction. Supervised machine learning using five folds cross-validated neural additive network modelling (NAM) was performed on the phonations of aspirator versus non-aspirators. The model was then validated using an independent, external database. Results/Anticipated Results: Aspirators were found to have quantifiably worse quality of sound with higher jitter and shimmer but lower harmonics noise ratio. NAM modeling classified aspirators and non-aspirators as distinct groups (aspirator NAM risk score 0.528+0.2478 (mean + std) vs. non-aspirator (control) risk score of 0.252+0.241 (mean + std); p Discussion/Significance of Impact: We report the use of voice as a novel, noninvasive biomarker to detect aspiration risk using machine learning techniques. This tool has the potential to be used for the safe and early detection of aspiration in a variety of clinical settings including intensive care units, wards, outpatient clinics, and remote monitoring.

Large datasets, combined with modeling techniques, provide a quantitative way to estimate when known archaeological sites will be impacted by climatological changes. With over 4,000 archaeological sites recorded on the coast of Georgia, USA, the state provides an ideal opportunity to compare methods. Here, we compare the popular passive “bathtub” modeling with the dynamic Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) combined with the Marshes Equilibrium Model (MEM). The goal of this effort is to evaluate prior modeling and test the benefits of more detailed ecological modeling in assessing site loss. Our findings indicate that although rough counts of archaeological sites destroyed by sea-level rise (SLR) are similar in all approaches, using the latter two methods provides critical information needed in prioritizing site studies and documentation before irrevocable damages occur. Our results indicate that within the next 80 years, approximately 40% of Georgia's coastal sites will undergo a loss of archaeological context due to wetlands shifting from dry ecological zones to transitional marshlands or submerged estuaries and swamps.

The term “blue justice” was coined in 2018 during the 3rd World Small-Scale Fisheries Congress. Since then, academic engagement with the concept has grown rapidly. This article reviews 5 years of blue justice scholarship and synthesizes some of the key perspectives, developments, and gaps. We then connect this literature to wider relevant debates by reviewing two key areas of research – first on blue injustices and second on grassroots resistance to these injustices. Much of the early scholarship on blue justice focused on injustices experienced by small-scale fishers in the context of the blue economy. In contrast, more recent writing and the empirical cases reviewed here suggest that intersecting forms of oppression render certain coastal individuals and groups vulnerable to blue injustices. These developments signal an expansion of the blue justice literature to a broader set of affected groups and underlying causes of injustice. Our review also suggests that while grassroots resistance efforts led by coastal communities have successfully stopped unfair exposure to environmental harms, preserved their livelihoods and ways of life, defended their culture and customary rights, renegotiated power distributions, and proposed alternative futures, these efforts have been underemphasized in the blue justice scholarship, and from marine and coastal literature more broadly. We conclude with some suggestions for understanding and supporting blue justice now and into the future.

Helminth species of Neotropical bats are poorly known. In Mexico, few studies have been conducted on helminths of bats, especially in regions such as the Yucatan Peninsula where Chiroptera is the mammalian order with the greatest number of species. In this study, we characterized morphologically and molecularly the helminth species of bats and explored their infection levels and parasite–host interactions in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. One hundred and sixty-three bats (representing 21 species) were captured between 2017 and 2022 in 15 sites throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. Conventional morphological techniques and molecular tools were used with the 28S gene to identify the collected helminths. Host–parasite network analyses were carried out to explore interactions by focusing on the level of host species. Helminths were found in 44 (26.9%) bats of 12 species. Twenty helminth taxa were recorded (7 trematodes, 3 cestodes and 10 nematodes), including 4 new host records for the Americas. Prevalence and mean intensity of infection values ranged from 7.1 to 100% and from 1 to 56, respectively. Molecular analyses confirmed the identity of some helminths at species and genus levels; however, some sequences did not correspond to any of the species available on GenBank. The parasite–host network suggests that most of the helminths recorded in bats were host-specific. The highest helminth richness was found in insectivorous bats. This study increases our knowledge of helminths parasitizing Neotropical bats, adding new records and nucleotide sequences.

Many snow models have been developed for various applications such as hydrology, global atmospheric circulation models and avalanche forecasting. The degree of complexity of these models is highly variable, ranging from simple index methods to multi-layer models that simulate snow-cover stratigraphy and texture. In the framework of the Snow Model Intercomparison Project (SnowMIP), 23 models were compared using observed meteorological parameters from two mountainous alpine sites. The analysis here focuses on validation of snow energy-budget simulations. Albedo and snow surface temperature observations allow identification of the more realistic simulations and quantification of errors for two components of the energy budget: the net short- and longwave radiation. In particular, the different albedo parameterizations are evaluated for different snowpack states (in winter and spring). Analysis of results during the melting period allows an investigation of the different ways of partitioning the energy fluxes and reveals the complex feedbacks which occur when simulating the snow energy budget. Particular attention is paid to the impact of model complexity on the energy-budget components. The model complexity has a major role for the net longwave radiation calculation, whereas the albedo parameterization is the most significant factor explaining the accuracy of the net shortwave radiation simulation.

The results of the first molecular phylogenetic study of Pseudephebe are presented; a three-locus phylogeny. The genus is confirmed as monophyletic within the alectorioid clade of Parmeliaceae. Two major clades were recovered, which can be assigned to the two traditional taxa, P. minuscula and P. pubescens, with modifications of the species delimitation, especially the variable P. minuscula. These species are cryptic and cannot be confidently distinguished morphologically due to phenotypic convergence. Therefore, the use of P. pubescens aggr. is recommended for samples not molecularly analyzed. Contrary to previous studies, specimens of both species might have indistinct pseudocyphellae and also contain lichen substances; norstictic acid was detected in c. 60% of specimens tested. An SSU 1516 Group I intron is usually present in P. minuscula but always absent in P. pubescens. The species-level nomenclature is summarized and sequenced reference specimens (RefSpec) for both Pseudephebe species are selected. Sequences from Bryoria mariensis established that this name was a synonym of P. minuscula.

There is heated debate over the wisdom and effect of secrecy in international negotiations. This debate has become central to the process of foreign investment arbitration because parties to disputes nearly always can choose to hide arbitral outcomes from public view. Working with a new database of disputes at the world's largest investor-state arbitral institution, the World Bank's International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes, the authors examine the incentives of firms and governments to keep the details of their disputes secret. The authors argue that secrecy in the context of investment arbitration works like a flexibility-enhancing device, similar to the way escape clauses function in the context of international trade. To attract and preserve investment, governments make contractual and treaty-based promises to submit to binding arbitration in the event of a dispute. They may prefer secrecy in cases when they are under strong political pressure to adopt policies that violate international legal norms designed to protect investor interests. Investors favor secrecy when managing politically sensitive disputes over assets they will continue to own and manage in host countries long after the particular dispute has passed. Although governments prefer secrecy to help facilitate politically difficult bargaining, secrecy diminishes one of the central purposes of arbitration: to allow governments to signal publicly their general commitment to investor-friendly policies. Understanding the incentives for keeping the details of dispute resolution secret may help future scholars explain more accurately the observed patterns of wins and losses from investor-state arbitration as well as patterns of investment.

Bryoria araucana sp. nov. is described from Chile on the basis of morphological, chemical and molecular data. It has a grey to dark greyish brown pendent thallus with the base usually black, branching angles mainly obtuse, terminal branches with few lateral branchlets acutely inserted, fumarprotocetraric acid, and often protocetraric and confumarprotocetraric acids. It is morphologically similar to the Northern Hemisphere B. trichodes, but lacks soralia and has inconspicuous concolorous or slightly darker pseudocyphellae. Bryoria glabra is also reported for the first time from the Southern Hemisphere. New phylogenetic data based on ITS, mtSSU and MCM7 analyses suggest that Bryoria sect. Bryoria is polyphyletic and needs revision.

In order to confirm and investigate the extent of reported mismatches between chemotypes and molecular sequence data in Bryoria fuscescens s. lat., we examined 15 morphologically similar thalli from each of three Pinus forest sites in the Sistema Central of central Spain. Three thalli were rejected due to infections by Phacopsis huuskonenii (not previously published from Spain). The remaining 42 thalli represented nine ITS rDNA haplotypes and four chemotypes (by TLC): fumarprotocetraric and protocetraric acids; norstictic and connorstictic acids; psoromic acid; and fumarprotocetraric, protocetraric and psoromic acids. The molecular phylogenetic tree was characterized by extremely short branch lengths, often only with a single mutational difference, and a single haplotype could have different chemical products. In some cases, adjacent specimens represented different chemotypes, and three thalli appeared to be mixed individuals. Consistency of both molecular and chemical data within individual specimens was demonstrated by examining four different parts of each thallus, which showed only a difference in the location of psoromic acid in some. This is the first population-level study of this taxon, and so it is premature to propose taxonomic changes at this time. Further populations in different parts of the geographical range of this widespread complex now need to be analyzed, and more sensitive chemical analyses conducted, in order to understand the basis of the variability and determine the appropriate taxonomic treatment.

Why do some decision makers prefer big multilateral agreements while others prefer cooperation in small clubs? Does enforcement encourage or deter institutional cooperation? We use experiments drawn from behavioral economics and cognitive psychology—along with a substantive survey focused on international trade—to illustrate how two behavioral traits (patience and strategic reasoning) of individuals who play key roles in negotiating and ratifying an international treaty shape their preferences for how treaties are designed and whether they are ratified. Patient subjects were more likely to prefer treaties with larger numbers of countries (and larger long-term benefits), as were subjects with the skill to anticipate how others will respond over multiple iterations of strategic games. The presence of an enforcement mechanism increased subjects' willingness to ratify treaties; however, strategic reasoning had double the effect of adding enforcement to a trade agreement: more strategic subjects were particularly likely to favor ratifying the agreement. We report these results for a sample of 509 university students and also show how similar patterns are revealed in a unique sample of ninety-two actual US policy elites. Under some conditions certain types of university student convenience samples can be useful for revealing elite-dominated policy preferences—different types of people in the same situation may prefer to approach decision-making tasks and reason through trade-offs in materially different ways.