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Sea-level science has seen many recent developments in observations and modelling of the different contributions and the total mean sea-level change. In this overview, we discuss (1) the evolution of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, (2) how the projections compare to observations and (3) the outlook for further improving projections. We start by discussing how the model projections of 21st century sea-level change have changed from the IPCC AR5 report (2013) to SROCC (2019) and AR6 (2021), highlighting similarities and differences in the methodologies and comparing the global mean and regional projections. This shows that there is good agreement in the median values, but also highlights some differences. In addition, we discuss how the different reports included high-end projections. We then show how the AR5 projections (from 2007 onwards) compare against the observations and find that they are highly consistent with each other. Finally, we discuss how to further improve sea-level projections using high-resolution ocean modelling and recent vertical land motion estimates.
We use a mathematical model to investigate the effect of basal topography and ice surface slope on transport and deposition of sediment within a water-filled subglacial channel. In our model, three zones of different behaviour occur. In the zone furthest upstream, variations in basal topography lead to sediment deposition under a wide range of conditions. In this first zone, even very small and gradually varying basal undulations (~5 m amplitude) can lead to the deposition of sediment within a modelled channel. Deposition is concentrated on the downstream gradient of subglacial ridges, and on the upstream gradient of subglacial troughs. The thickness and steepness of the ice sheet has a substantial impact on deposition rates, with shallow ice profiles strongly promoting both the magnitude and extent of sediment deposition. In a second zone, all sediment is transported downstream. Finally, a third zone close to the ice margin is characterised by high rates of sediment deposition. The existence of these zones has implications for esker formation and the dynamics of the subglacial environment.
Viscous contact problems describe the time evolution of fluid flows in contact with a surface from which they can detach and reattach. These problems are of particular importance in glaciology, where they arise in the study of grounding lines and subglacial cavities. In this work, we propose a novel numerical method for solving viscous contact problems based on a mixed formulation with Lagrange multipliers of a variational inequality involving the Stokes equations. The advection equation for evolving the geometry of the domain occupied by the fluid is then solved via a specially-built upwinding scheme, leading to a robust and accurate algorithm for viscous contact problems. We first verify the method by comparing the numerical results to analytical results obtained by a linearised method. Then we use this numerical scheme to reconstruct friction laws for glacial sliding with cavitation. Finally, we compute the evolution of cavities from a steady state under oscillating water pressures. The results depend strongly on the location of the initial steady state along the friction law. In particular, we find that if the steady state is located on the downsloping or rate-weakening part of the friction law, then the cavity evolves towards the upsloping section, indicating that the downsloping part is unstable.
Approximately 60 000 people in England have coexisting type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and severe mental illness (SMI). They are more likely to have poorer health outcomes and require more complex care pathways compared with those with T2DM alone. Despite increasing prevalence, little is known about the healthcare resource use and costs for people with both conditions.
Aims
To assess the impact of SMI on healthcare resource use and service costs for adults with T2DM, and explore the predictors of healthcare costs and lifetime costs for people with both conditions.
Method
This was a matched-cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to Hospital Episode Statistics for 1620 people with comorbid SMI and T2DM and 4763 people with T2DM alone. Generalised linear models and the Bang and Tsiatis method were used to explore cost predictors and mean lifetime costs respectively.
Results
There were higher average annual costs for people with T2DM and SMI (£1930 higher) than people with T2DM alone, driven primarily by mental health and non-mental health-related hospital admissions. Key predictors of higher total costs were older age, comorbid hypertension, use of antidepressants, use of first-generation antipsychotics, and increased duration of living with both conditions. Expected lifetime costs were approximately £35 000 per person with both SMI and T2DM. Extrapolating nationally, this would generate total annual costs to the National Health Service of around £250 m per year.
Conclusions
Our estimates of resource use and costs for people with both T2DM and SMI will aid policymakers and commissioners in service planning and resource allocation.
Instability to Tollmien–Schlichting waves is one of the primary routes to transition to turbulence for two-dimensional boundary layers in quiet disturbance environments. Cancellation of Tollmien–Schlichting waves using surface heating was first demonstrated in the experiments of Liepmann et al. (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 118, 1982, pp. 187–200) and Liepmann & Nosenchuck (J. Fluid Mech., vol. 118, 1982, pp. 201–204). Here we consider a similar theoretical formulation that includes the effects of localised (unsteady) wall heating/cooling. The resulting problem is closely related to that of Terent'ev (Prikl. Mat. Mekh., vol. 45, 1981, pp. 1049–1055; Prikl. Mat. Mekh., vol. 48, 1984, pp. 264–272) on the generation of Tollmien–Schlichting waves by a vibrating ribbon, but with thermal effects. The nonlinear receptivity problem based on triple-deck scales is formulated and the linearised version solved both analytically as well as numerically. The most significant result is that the wall heating/cooling function can be chosen such that there is no pressure response to the disturbance, meaning there is no generation of Tollmien–Schlichting waves. Numerical calculations substantiate this with an approximation based on the exact analytical result. Previous numerical studies of the unsteady triple-deck equations have shown difficulties in capturing the convective wave packet that develops in the initial-value problem and we show that these arise from the choice of time steps as well as the range of the Fourier modes taken.
Thin, roughly horizontal low-permeability layers are a common form of large-scale heterogeneity in geological porous formations. In this paper, the dynamics of a buoyancy-driven plume in a two-dimensional layered porous medium is studied theoretically, with the aid of high-resolution numerical simulations. The medium is uniform apart from a thin, horizontal layer of a much lower permeability, located a dimensionless distance $L\gg 1$ below the dense plume source. If the dimensionless thickness $2\unicode[STIX]{x1D700}L$ and permeability $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F1}$ of the low-permeability layer are small, the effect of the layer is found to be well parameterized by its impedance $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FA}=2\unicode[STIX]{x1D700}L/\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F1}$. Five different regimes of flow are identified and characterized. For $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FA}\ll L^{1/3}$, the layer has no effect on the plume, but as $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FA}$ is increased the plume widens and spreads over the layer as a gravity current. For still larger $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FA}$, the flow becomes destabilized by convective instabilities both below and above the layer, until, for $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FA}\gg L$, the spread of the plume is dominated by convective mixing and buoyancy is transported across the layer by diffusion alone. Analytical models for the spread of the plume over the layer in the various different regimes are presented.
Chloris spp. are warm-season grasses that outcompete crops for scarce resources throughout Australia. In Queensland, mild winters and increased adoption of conservation tillage practices have led to an increase of this warm-season grass family in winter crops. The objective of this study is to understand whether droplet size (nozzle type) effects herbicide efficacy of summer perennial grasses, as previous research found no effect of droplet size (nozzle type) on herbicide efficacy of winter annual grasses. A study to compare droplet-size (nozzle type) effects on control of windmillgrass and its domesticated relative, rhodesgrass, was conducted at the University of Queensland in Gatton, QLD, Australia. Results showed little difference in dry weight reductions for windmillgrass or rhodesgrass across droplet size (nozzle type). Paraquat applications with the TTI nozzle resulted in significantly lower dry weight reductions compared with other droplet-size sprays (nozzle types) for rhodesgrass. Glyphosate, imazamox plus imazapyr, and clodinafop resulted in commercially acceptable control for both species, regardless of the droplet size (nozzle type) selected, indicating droplet size (nozzle type) has relatively little impact on the efficacy of these herbicides. Proper nozzle selection can result in control of Chloris spp., a hard to control weed species, while reducing the occurrence of spray drift to nearby sensitive areas.
Non-thermal radio emission has been detected from dMe stars, RS CVn binaries and W T Tauri stars. Polarisation and intensity measurements of the quiescent (i.e. non-flaring) emission indicate that the emission is gyrosynchrotron emission from mildly relativistic electrons spiralling in a magnetic field. A three-dimensional dipole magnetic field model for the stellar field is presented and the quiescent gyrosynchrotron emission from such a model is calculated and compared with observations. The model can account for many phenomenological features of quiescent emission. Quantitative comparisons of model results with observations indicate that the electron distribution in the emission region may be a magnetic mirroring distribution.
Ground-based observations of Jupiter’s decametric radio emission (DAM) have been reviewed by Ellis (1965), Warwick (1967, 1970) and Carr and Gulkis (1969). A startling feature of DAM is the modulating effect of Io, and interpretation of the Io effect has dominated theoretical discussions of DAM until quite recently, specifically until the fly-by s of Voyagers 1 and 2. The Voyager data showed that the DAM appears as nested arcs in the frequency-Jovian longitude plane (Warwick et al. 1979, Boischot et al. 1981). The interpretation of this arc structure has been of primary theoretical interest over the past two years. The most widely adopted explanation is that the emission from each point is confined to the surface of a hollow cone (Goldstein and Thieman 1981). This idea is not new: emission on the surface of a cone was discussed by Ellis and McCulloch (1963); Dulk (1967) derived detailed parameters for the cone (half angle 79° width 1°) from the occurrence pattern of DAM; and Goldreich and Lynden-Bell (1969) presented a theoretical interpretation of it. More recently Goldstein et al. (1979) used observational data on the Jovian magnetic field in deriving properties of the required emission cone. It seems that one requires the properties of the emission cone to vary with position in the Jovian magnetosphere to account for the nested arc pattern (Goldstein and Thieman 1981; Gurnett and Goertz 1981).
Finite-element analysis of circular septum models indicates that (1) anticlastic fluting weakened the last septa of the same radius of curvature by a factor of about 2.5 relative to the tensile stresses in a sphere of nacre, (2) septa with ammonitic sutures were stronger than those with goniatitic sutures of the same thickness, and (3) septa with more “complex” ammonitic sutures were stronger at the edge between lobes and saddles than “simple” ones. These results contradict recent claims that ammonoid septa became weaker as sutural complexity increased from goniatitic through ammonitic, so that the most complex sutures were limited to the shallowest habitats. The smaller marginal flutes of complex septa were relatively strong, allowing them to be thinner than the central septum and still act as elastic wall supports. Many Mesozoic ammonoids with highly sinuous sutures occurred in deep epeiric and open-ocean habitats, whereas it is those with secondarily reduced, ceratitic sutures that were typically associated with restricted shallow basins.
The Murchison Widefield Array is a Square Kilometre Array Precursor. The telescope is located at the Murchison Radio–astronomy Observatory in Western Australia. The MWA consists of 4 096 dipoles arranged into 128 dual polarisation aperture arrays forming a connected element interferometer that cross-correlates signals from all 256 inputs. A hybrid approach to the correlation task is employed, with some processing stages being performed by bespoke hardware, based on Field Programmable Gate Arrays, and others by Graphics Processing Units housed in general purpose rack mounted servers. The correlation capability required is approximately 8 tera floating point operations per second. The MWA has commenced operations and the correlator is generating 8.3 TB day−1 of correlation products, that are subsequently transferred 700 km from the MRO to Perth (WA) in real-time for storage and offline processing. In this paper, we outline the correlator design, signal path, and processing elements and present the data format for the internal and external interfaces.
The Murchison Widefield Array is a new low-frequency interferometric radio telescope built in Western Australia at one of the locations of the future Square Kilometre Array. We describe the automated radio-frequency interference detection strategy implemented for the Murchison Widefield Array, which is based on the aoflagger platform, and present 72–231 MHz radio-frequency interference statistics from 10 observing nights. Radio-frequency interference detection removes 1.1% of the data. Radio-frequency interference from digital TV is observed 3% of the time due to occasional ionospheric or atmospheric propagation. After radio-frequency interference detection and excision, almost all data can be calibrated and imaged without further radio-frequency interference mitigation efforts, including observations within the FM and digital TV bands. The results are compared to a previously published Low-Frequency Array radio-frequency interference survey. The remote location of the Murchison Widefield Array results in a substantially cleaner radio-frequency interference environment compared to Low-Frequency Array’s radio environment, but adequate detection of radio-frequency interference is still required before data can be analysed. We include specific recommendations designed to make the Square Kilometre Array more robust to radio-frequency interference, including: the availability of sufficient computing power for radio-frequency interference detection; accounting for radio-frequency interference in the receiver design; a smooth band-pass response; and the capability of radio-frequency interference detection at high time and frequency resolution (second and kHz-scale respectively).
Significant new opportunities for astrophysics and cosmology have been identified at low radio frequencies. The Murchison Widefield Array is the first telescope in the southern hemisphere designed specifically to explore the low-frequency astronomical sky between 80 and 300 MHz with arcminute angular resolution and high survey efficiency. The telescope will enable new advances along four key science themes, including searching for redshifted 21-cm emission from the EoR in the early Universe; Galactic and extragalactic all-sky southern hemisphere surveys; time-domain astrophysics; and solar, heliospheric, and ionospheric science and space weather. The Murchison Widefield Array is located in Western Australia at the site of the planned Square Kilometre Array (SKA) low-band telescope and is the only low-frequency SKA precursor facility. In this paper, we review the performance properties of the Murchison Widefield Array and describe its primary scientific objectives.
Twin studies are extremely useful for investigating hypotheses of genetic influence on a range of behavioral and physical traits in humans. Studies of physical traits, however, are usually limited to size-related biological characteristics because it is inherently difficult to quantify the morphological counterpart – shape. In recent years, the development of geometry-preserving analytical techniques built upon multivariate statistical methodologies has produced a new discipline in biological shape analysis known as geometric morphometrics. In this study of hand shape analysis, we introduce the reader already familiar with the field of twin research to the potential utility of geometric morphometrics and demonstrate the cross-discipline applicability of methods. We also investigate and compare the efficacy of the 2D:4D ratio, a commonly used marker of sexual dimorphism, to the fully multivariate approach of shape analysis in discriminating between male and female sex. Studies of biological shape variation utilizing geometric morphometric techniques may be completed with software freely available on the Internet and time invested to master the small learning curve in concepts and theory.
Multiple norovirus outbreaks following catered events in Auckland, New Zealand, in September 2010 were linked to the same catering company and investigated. Retrospective cohort studies were undertaken with attendees of two events: 38 (24·1%) of 158 surveyed attendees developed norovirus-compatible illness. Attendees were at increased risk of illness if they had consumed food that had received manual preparation following cooking or that had been prepared within 45 h following end of symptoms in a food handler with prior gastroenteritis. All food handlers were tested for norovirus. A recombinant norovirus GII.e/GII.4 was detected in specimens from event attendees and the convalescent food handler. All catering company staff were tested; no asymptomatic norovirus carriers were detected. This investigation improved the characterization of norovirus risk from post-symptomatic food handlers by narrowing the potential source of transmission to one individual. Food handlers with gastroenteritis should be excluded from the workplace for 45 h following resolution of symptoms.
The Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) is one of three Square Kilometre Array Precursor telescopes and is located at the Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory in the Murchison Shire of the mid-west of Western Australia, a location chosen for its extremely low levels of radio frequency interference. The MWA operates at low radio frequencies, 80–300 MHz, with a processed bandwidth of 30.72 MHz for both linear polarisations, and consists of 128 aperture arrays (known as tiles) distributed over a ~3-km diameter area. Novel hybrid hardware/software correlation and a real-time imaging and calibration systems comprise the MWA signal processing backend. In this paper, the as-built MWA is described both at a system and sub-system level, the expected performance of the array is presented, and the science goals of the instrument are summarised.
Strabismus represents a complex oculomotor disorder characterized by the deviation of one or both eyes and poor vision. A more sophisticated understanding of the genetic liability of strabismus is required to guide searches for associated molecular variants. In this classical twin study of 1,462 twin pairs, we examined the relative influence of genes and environment in comitant strabismus, and the degree to which these influences can be explained by factors in common with refractive error. Participants were examined for the presence of latent (‘phoria’) and manifest (‘tropia’) strabismus using cover–uncover and alternate cover tests. Two phenotypes were distinguished: eso-deviation (esophoria and esotropia) and exo-deviation (exophoria and exotropia). Structural equation modeling was subsequently employed to partition the observed phenotypic variation in the twin data into specific variance components. The prevalence of eso-deviation and exo-deviation was 8.6% and 20.7%, respectively. For eso-deviation, the polychoric correlation was significantly greater in monozygotic (MZ) (r = 0.65) compared to dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs (r = 0.33), suggesting a genetic role (p = .003). There was no significant difference in polychoric correlation between MZ (r = 0.55) and DZ twin pairs (r = 0.53) for exo-deviation (p = .86), implying that genetic factors do not play a significant role in the etiology of exo-deviation. The heritability of an eso-deviation was 0.64 (95% CI 0.50–0.75). The additive genetic correlation for eso-deviation and refractive error was 0.13 and the bivariate heritability (i.e., shared variance) was less than 1%, suggesting negligible shared genetic effect. This study documents a substantial heritability of 64% for eso-deviation, yet no corresponding heritability for exo-deviation, suggesting that the genetic contribution to strabismus may be specific to eso-deviation. Future studies are now needed to identify the genes associated with eso-deviation and unravel their mechanisms of action.