Shifting to cycling in urban areas reduces greenhouse gas emissions and improves public health. Access to street-level data on bicycle traffic would assist cities in planning targeted infrastructure improvements to encourage cycling and provide civil society with evidence to advocate for cyclists’ needs. Yet, the data currently available to cities and citizens often only comes from sparsely located counting stations. This paper extrapolates bicycle volume beyond these few locations to estimate street-level bicycle counts for the entire city of Berlin. We predict daily and average annual daily street-level bicycle volumes using machine-learning techniques and various data sources. These include app-based crowdsourced data, infrastructure, bike-sharing, motorized traffic, socioeconomic indicators, weather, holiday data, and centrality measures. Our analysis reveals that crowdsourced cycling flow data from Strava in the area around the point of interest are most important for the prediction. To provide guidance for future data collection, we analyze how including short-term counts at predicted locations enhances model performance. By incorporating just 10 days of sample counts for each predicted location, we are able to almost halve the error and greatly reduce the variability in performance among predicted locations.

Response times on test items are easily collected in modern computerized testing. When collecting both (binary) responses and (continuous) response times on test items, it is possible to measure the accuracy and speed of test takers. To study the relationships between these two constructs, the model is extended with a multivariate multilevel regression structure which allows the incorporation of covariates to explain the variance in speed and accuracy between individuals and groups of test takers. A Bayesian approach with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computation enables straightforward estimation of all model parameters. Model-specific implementations of a Bayes factor (BF) and deviance information criterium (DIC) for model selection are proposed which are easily calculated as byproducts of the MCMC computation. Both results from simulation studies and real-data examples are given to illustrate several novel analyses possible with this modeling framework.

Over a 2-year period, we identified Transmission from Room Environment Events (TREE) across the Johns Hopkins Health System, where the subsequent room occupant developed the same organism with the same antimicrobial susceptibilities as the patient who had previously occupied that room. Overall, the TREE rate was 50/100,000 inpatient days.

How do sequences of upward and downward socioeconomic mobility influence political views among those who have “risen” or “fallen” during periods of leftist governance? While existing studies identify a range of factors, long-term mobility trajectories have been largely unexplored. The question has particular salience in contemporary Brazil, where, after a decade of extraordinary poverty reduction on the watch of the leftist Workers’ Party (PT), a subsequent period of economic and political crises intensified anti-PT sentiment. This article uses original data from the 2016 Brazil’s Once-Rising Poor (BORP) Survey, using a 3-city sample of 822 poor and working-class Brazilians to analyze the relationship between retrospective assessments of prior socioeconomic mobility and anti-PT sentiment. The study found that people who reported a “stalled” mobility sequence (upward mobility followed by static or downward mobility) were more likely to harbor anti-left sentiment than other groups, as measured by this study’s anti-PT index.

There is limited information on the volume of antibiotic prescribing that is influenza-associated, resulting from influenza infections and their complications (such as streptococcal pharyngitis). We estimated that for the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population during 2010–2018, 3.4% (2.8%–4%) of all macrolide prescriptions (fills), 2.7% (2.3%–3.2%) of all aminopenicillin prescriptions, 3.1% (2.4%–3.9%) of all 3rd generation cephalosporins prescriptions, 2.2% (1.8%–2.6%) of all protected aminopenicillin prescriptions and 1.3% (1%–1.6%) of all quinolone prescriptions were influenza-associated. The corresponding proportions were higher for select age groups, e.g. 4.3% of macrolide prescribing in ages over 50 years, 5.1% (3.3%–6.8%) of aminopenicillin prescribing in ages 5–17 years and 3.3% (1.9%–4.6%) in ages <5 years was influenza-associated. The relative contribution of influenza to antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses without a bacterial indication in ages over 5 years was higher than the corresponding relative contribution to prescribing for all diagnoses. Our results suggest a modest benefit of increasing influenza vaccination coverage for reducing prescribing for the five studied antibiotic classes, particularly for macrolides in ages over 50 years and aminopenicillins in ages <18 years, and the potential benefit of other measures to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses with no bacterial indication, both of which may contribute to the mitigation of antimicrobial resistance.

In the next 10 years, the US cultural resource management (CRM) industry will grow in terms of monies spent on CRM activities and the size of the CRM labor force. Between US fiscal years 2022 and 2031, annual spending on CRM will increase from about $1.46 to $1.85 billion, due in part to growth in the US economy but also to an added $1 billion of CRM activities conducted in response to the newly passed infrastructure bill. The increased spending will lead to the creation of about 11,000 new full-time positions in all CRM fields. Archaeologists will be required to fill more than 8,000 positions, and of these, about 70% will require advanced degrees. Based on current graduation rates, there will be a significant MA/PhD-level job deficit. Accordingly, there is a compelling need to (a) stop the trend to close or decrease the size of current graduate programs, (b) reorient academic programs to give a greater emphasis to the skills needed to be successful in CRM, and (c) better integrate academic and applied archaeology to leverage the vast amount of data that will be generated in the next decade to best benefit the public.

Background: A phase 3 trial, ADVANCE (NCT03777059), demonstrated that atogepant, an oral, CGRP receptor antagonist dosed once daily, results in clinically meaningful reductions in mean monthly migraine days. This open-label extension for ADVANCE trial completers evaluated long-term safety and tolerability of atogepant over 40-weeks. Methods: Participants in this trial (NCT03939312), rolled over from the ADVANCE trial, were treated with atogepant 60mg once daily for 40-weeks, with a 4-week safety follow-up. Only safety data were collected. Results: 685 participants took at least one dose of study drug, 74.6% completed the 40-week treatment period; mean age of 41.8 years, 88.2% female, 84.4% white, and mean BMI of 30.58 kg/m2. Mean (SD) treatment duration was 233.6 (89.32) days. 62.5% of participants experienced a treatment-emergent adverse event (TEAE), with 8.8% considered treatment-related by the investigator; serious adverse events (SAEs) occurred in 3.4% of participants, none were treatment-related. The most frequent AEs leading to discontinuation was nausea (0.4%, n=3); the most frequent TEAEs observed included upper respiratory tract infection (5.5%, n=38) and urinary tract infection (5.3%, n=36). No deaths or hepatic safety issues were observed. Conclusions: Safety results are consistent with known safety profile of atogepant and support long-term safety and tolerability of once daily dosing of atogepant 60mg.

This research note provides a detailed account of the development and implementation of a household survey conducted in 2016 as part of a larger investigation into the lifeways and political subjectivities of Brazil’s “once-rising poor,” the demographic sector comprising poor and working-class people who experienced various forms of socioeconomic mobility in the early twenty-first century. After reflecting on the challenges of maintaining a critical perspective on class labels and relations that were intensely contested at the time, the article introduces the survey sample (n = 1,204), highlighting variables captured. It then establishes the demographic profile, mobility experiences, political values, attitudes, and behaviors of the sample. The portrait that emerges for this sector is one of economic precarity, heterogeneous experiences of socioeconomic mobility (and nonmobility) over the past two decades, and significant alienation from formal politics.

There is limited information on the volume of antibiotic prescribing that is influenza-associated, resulting from influenza infections and their complications (such as streptococcal pharyngitis and otitis media). Here, we estimated age/diagnosis-specific proportions of antibiotic prescriptions (fills) for the Kaiser Permanente Northern California population during 2010–2018 that were influenza-associated. The proportion of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing among all antibiotic prescribing was higher in children aged 5–17 years compared to children aged under 5 years, ranging from 1.4% [95% CI (0.7–2.1)] in aged <1 year to 2.7% (1.9–3.4) in aged 15–17 years. For adults aged over 20 years, the proportion of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing among all antibiotic prescribing was lower, ranging from 0.7% (0.5–1) for aged 25–29 years to 1.6% (1.2–1.9) for aged 60–64 years. Most of the influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing in children aged under 10 years was for ear infections, while for age groups over 25 years, 45–84% of influenza-associated antibiotic prescribing was for respiratory diagnoses without a bacterial indication. This suggests a modest benefit of increasing influenza vaccination coverage for reducing antibiotic prescribing, as well as the potential benefit of other measures to reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing for respiratory diagnoses with no bacterial indication in persons aged over 25 years, both of which may further contribute to the mitigation of antimicrobial resistance.

ABSTRACT IMPACT: Pharmacological activation of KATP channels may provide analgesia and attenuate opioid tolerance and withdrawal OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Our long term goal is to develop therapeutics for the treatment of the overuse of opioids. The objective of this application is to test novel KATP channel-targeting prodrugs in rodent models of neuropathic and inflammatory pain in addition to opioid tolerance after chronic morphine administration. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: In one study, two different measures for chronic pain were implemented in mice. Male and female mice (n=10) were subjected to spinal nerve ligation (SNL) or intraplantar injection of Complete Freund’s Adjuvant (CFA) to induce neuropathic and inflammatory pain, respectively. Administration of KATP channel prodrugs (60ug, it) attenuated mechanical hypersensitivity after SNL or CFA compared to vehicle (saline). In a separate study, changes in mechanical hypersensitivity were tested while mice undergo chronic morphine treatment (15mg/kg, 2x, 5 days) with administration of the prodrugs. Tolerance was measured as the loss of antinociception, and withdrawal is measured ˜24 hours after the final morphine injection. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Intrathecal administration of either KATP channel prodrugs significantly attenuated mechanical hypersensitivity after SNL and significantly attenuated mechanical hypersensitivity after CFA in mice. We predict that intrathecal administration of these prodrugs will also attenuate morphine tolerance and withdrawal in mice. This hypothesis is based off our previous data indicating non-water soluble KATP channel agonists produce analgesia and attenuate morphine tolerance in mice. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: Pharmaceutical strategies to utilize KATP channels for therapeutics have been hindered due to the low solubility and low ability to cross the neurovascular unit. Newly developed, water-soluble KATP channel openers could be useful pharmaceutical strategy to reduce chronic pain, opioid tolerance, and withdrawal in human populations.

This SHEA white paper identifies knowledge gaps and challenges in healthcare epidemiology research related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with a focus on core principles of healthcare epidemiology. These gaps, revealed during the worst phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, are described in 10 sections: epidemiology, outbreak investigation, surveillance, isolation precaution practices, personal protective equipment (PPE), environmental contamination and disinfection, drug and supply shortages, antimicrobial stewardship, healthcare personnel (HCP) occupational safety, and return to work policies. Each section highlights three critical healthcare epidemiology research questions with detailed description provided in supplementary materials. This research agenda calls for translational studies from laboratory-based basic science research to well-designed, large-scale studies and health outcomes research. Research gaps and challenges related to nursing homes and social disparities are included. Collaborations across various disciplines, expertise and across diverse geographic locations will be critical.

In a previous study, we showed that access to willow fodder decreased somatic cell counts (SCC) in the milk of local Mamber goats grazing in brushland at the end of lactation. To test whether the consumption of willow affects the cells of the immune system, Alpine crossbred dairy goats grazing in the same environment were either offered free access to freshly cut willow fodder (W, n = 24) or not (C, n = 24) for 2 weeks. The willow fodder contained 7.5 g/kg DM of salicin. The other major secondary compounds were catechin, myricitrin, hyperin and chlorogenic acid (2.2, 2.6, 1.0 and 0.75 g/kg DM, respectively). Udder health status was determined before the experiment, and each of the two groups included five (W) or six (C) goats defined as infected, as established by microbial cfu in milk, and 19 (W) or 18 (C) non-infected goats. Goats ingested, on average, 600 g of DM from willow (25% of food intake), resulting in minor changes in dietary quality compared to the controls, as established by faecal near-IR spectrometry. Throughout the 2 weeks of experiment, differences between groups in dietary CP contents were minor and affected neither by infection nor by access to willow; the dietary percentage of neutral detergent fibre (NDF) decreased in C and increased in W; dietary acid detergent fibre (ADF) increased; and the dietary tannin contents decreased for both treatments. However, milking performance and milk quality attributes in both W and C goats were similar. Initial SCC and milk neutrophil (cluster of differentiation (CD)18+ and porcine granulocyte (PG)68) cell counts were higher in infected than in non-infected goats; counts decreased significantly in W but not in C uninfected goats. The percentage of CD8+ T-cells increased in all C goats, while in the W group, a significant increase was found only for infected goats. The consumption of willow mitigated an increase in CD8+ in blood and triggered an increase in CD8+ in milk, suggesting an immune-regulatory effect independent of udder status. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a direct nutraceutical effect of fodder ingestion on the immune status of goats.