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Steep wave breaking on a vertical cylinder (a typical foundation supporting offshore wind turbines) will induce slam loads. Many questions on the important violent wave loading and the associated secondary load cycle remain unanswered. We use laboratory experiments with unidirectional waves to investigate the fluid loading on vertical cylinders. We use a novel three-phase decomposition approach that allows us to separate different types of nonlinearity. Our findings reveal the existence of an additional quasi-impulsive loading component that is associated with the secondary load cycle and occurs in the backwards direction against that of the incoming waves. This quasi-impulsive force occurs at the end of the secondary load cycle and close to the passage of the downward zero-crossing point of the undisturbed wave. Wavelet analysis showed that the impulsive force exhibits superficially similar behaviour to a typical wave-slamming event but in the reverse direction. To monitor the scattered wave field and extract run-up on the cylinder, we installed a four-camera synchronised video system and found a strong temporal correlation between the arrival time of the Type-II scattered wave onto the cylinder and the occurrence of this quasi-impulsive force. The temporal characteristics of this quasi-impulsive force can be approximated by the Goda wave impact model, taking the collision of the Type-II scattered waves at the rear stagnation point as the impact source.
Major depressive disorder (MDD) is the leading cause of disability globally, with moderate heritability and well-established socio-environmental risk factors. Genetic studies have been mostly restricted to European settings, with polygenic scores (PGS) demonstrating low portability across diverse global populations.
Methods
This study examines genetic architecture, polygenic prediction, and socio-environmental correlates of MDD in a family-based sample of 10 032 individuals from Nepal with array genotyping data. We used genome-based restricted maximum likelihood to estimate heritability, applied S-LDXR to estimate the cross-ancestry genetic correlation between Nepalese and European samples, and modeled PGS trained on a GWAS meta-analysis of European and East Asian ancestry samples.
Results
We estimated the narrow-sense heritability of lifetime MDD in Nepal to be 0.26 (95% CI 0.18–0.34, p = 8.5 × 10−6). Our analysis was underpowered to estimate the cross-ancestry genetic correlation (rg = 0.26, 95% CI −0.29 to 0.81). MDD risk was associated with higher age (beta = 0.071, 95% CI 0.06–0.08), female sex (beta = 0.160, 95% CI 0.15–0.17), and childhood exposure to potentially traumatic events (beta = 0.050, 95% CI 0.03–0.07), while neither the depression PGS (beta = 0.004, 95% CI −0.004 to 0.01) or its interaction with childhood trauma (beta = 0.007, 95% CI −0.01 to 0.03) were strongly associated with MDD.
Conclusions
Estimates of lifetime MDD heritability in this Nepalese sample were similar to previous European ancestry samples, but PGS trained on European data did not predict MDD in this sample. This may be due to differences in ancestry-linked causal variants, differences in depression phenotyping between the training and target data, or setting-specific environmental factors that modulate genetic effects. Additional research among under-represented global populations will ensure equitable translation of genomic findings.
Serrations are commonly employed to mitigate the turbulent boundary layer trailing-edge noise. However, significant discrepancies persist between model predictions and experimental observations. In this paper, we show that this results from the frozen turbulence assumption. A fully developed turbulent boundary layer over a flat plate is first simulated using the large-eddy simulation method, with the turbulence at the inlet generated using the digital filter method. The space–time correlations and spectral characteristics of wall pressure fluctuations are examined. The simulation results demonstrate that the coherence function decays in the streamwise direction, deviating from the constant value of unity assumed in the frozen turbulence assumption. By considering an exponential decay function, we relax the frozen turbulence assumption and develop a prediction model that accounts for the intrinsic non-frozen nature of turbulent boundary layers. To facilitate a direct comparison with frozen models, a correction coefficient is introduced to account for the influence of non-frozen turbulence. The comparison between the new and original models demonstrates that the new model predicts lower noise reductions, aligning more closely with the experimental observations. The physical mechanism underlying the overprediction of the noise model assuming frozen turbulence is discussed. The overprediction is due to the decoherence of the phase variation along the serrated trailing edge. Consequently, the ratio of the serration amplitude to the streamwise frequency-dependent correlation length is identified as a crucial parameter in determining the correct prediction of far-field noise.
We present and evaluate the prospects for detecting coherent radio counterparts to gravitational wave (GW) events using Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) triggered observations. The MWA rapid-response system, combined with its buffering mode ($\sim$4 min negative latency), enables us to catch any radio signals produced from seconds prior to hours after a binary neutron star (BNS) merger. The large field of view of the MWA ($\sim$$1\,000\,\textrm{deg}^2$ at 120 MHz) and its location under the high sensitivity sky region of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) detector network, forecast a high chance of being on-target for a GW event. We consider three observing configurations for the MWA to follow up GW BNS merger events, including a single dipole per tile, the full array, and four sub-arrays. We then perform a population synthesis of BNS systems to predict the radio detectable fraction of GW events using these configurations. We find that the configuration with four sub-arrays is the best compromise between sky coverage and sensitivity as it is capable of placing meaningful constraints on the radio emission from 12.6% of GW BNS detections. Based on the timescales of four BNS merger coherent radio emission models, we propose an observing strategy that involves triggering the buffering mode to target coherent signals emitted prior to, during or shortly following the merger, which is then followed by continued recording for up to three hours to target later time post-merger emission. We expect MWA to trigger on $\sim$$5-22$ BNS merger events during the LVK O4 observing run, which could potentially result in two detections of predicted coherent emission.
It is unclear whether the enhancing contact model (ECM) intervention is effective in reducing family caregiving burden and improving hope and quality of life (QOL) among family caregivers of persons with schizophrenia (FCPWS).
Methods
We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial in FCPWS in eight rural townships in Xinjin, Chengdu, China. In total, 253 FCPWS were randomly allocated to the ECM, psychoeducational family intervention (PFI), or treatment as usual (TAU) group. FCPWS in three groups were assessed caregiving burden, QOL and state of hope at baseline (T0), post-intervention (T1), 3-month (T2), and 9-month (T3) follow-up, respectively.
Results
Compared with participants in the TAU group, participants in the ECM group had statistically significantly lower caregiving burden scores both at T1 and T2 (p = 0.0059 and 0.0257, respectively). Compared with participants in the TAU group, participants in the PFI group had statistically significantly higher QOL scores in T1 (p = 0.0406), while participants in the ECM group had statistically significantly higher QOL scores in T3 (p = 0.0240). Participants in both ECM and PFI groups had statistically significantly higher hope scores than those in the TAU group at T1 (p = 0.0160 and 0.0486, respectively).
Conclusions
This is the first study to explore the effectiveness of ECM on reducing family caregiving burden and improving hope and QOL in rural China. The results indicate the ECM intervention, a comprehensive and multifaceted intervention, is more effective than the PFI in various aspects of mental wellbeing among FCPWS. Future research needs to confirm ECM's effectiveness in various population.
Cognitive therapy and behavioural activation are both widely applied and effective psychotherapies for depression, but it is unclear which works best for whom. Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis allows for examining moderators at the participant level and can provide more precise effect estimates than conventional meta-analysis, which is based on study-level data.
Aims
This article describes the protocol for a systematic review and IPD meta-analysis that aims to compare the efficacy of cognitive therapy and behavioural activation for adults with depression, and to explore moderators of treatment effect. (PROSPERO: CRD42022341602)
Method
Systematic literature searches will be conducted in PubMed, PsycINFO, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library, to identify randomised clinical trials comparing cognitive therapy and behavioural activation for adult acute-phase depression. Investigators of these trials will be invited to share their participant-level data. One-stage IPD meta-analyses will be conducted with mixed-effects models to assess treatment effects and to examine various available demographic, clinical and psychological participant characteristics as potential moderators. The primary outcome measure will be depressive symptom level at treatment completion. Secondary outcomes will include post-treatment anxiety, interpersonal functioning and quality of life, as well as follow-up outcomes.
Conclusions
To the best of our knowledge, this will be the first IPD meta-analysis concerning cognitive therapy versus behavioural activation for adult depression. This study has the potential to enhance our knowledge of depression treatment by using state-of-the-art statistical techniques to compare the efficacy of two widely used psychotherapies, and by shedding more light on which of these treatments might work best for whom.
The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.
We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.
Technical summary
A synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.
Social media summary
How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
We study the evolution of unidirectional water waves from a randomly forced input condition with uncorrelated Fourier components. We examine the kurtosis of the linearised free surface as a convenient proxy for the probability of a rogue wave. We repeat the laboratory experiments of Onorato et al. (Phys. Rev. E, vol. 70, 2004, 067302), both experimentally and numerically, and extend the parameter space in our numerical simulations. We consider numerical simulations based on the modified nonlinear Schrödinger equation and the fully nonlinear water wave equations, which are in good agreement. For low steepness, existing analytical models based on the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLS) are found to be accurate. For cases which are steep or have very narrow bandwidths, these analytical models over-predict the rate at which excess kurtosis develops. In these steep cases, the kurtosis in both our experiments and numerical simulations peaks before returning to an equilibrium level. Such transient maxima are not predicted by NLS-based analytical models. Above a certain threshold of steepness, the steady-state value of kurtosis is primarily dependent on the spectral bandwidth. We also examine how the average shape of extreme events is modified by nonlinearity over the evolution distance, showing significant asymmetry during the initial evolution, which is greatly reduced once the spectrum has reached equilibrium. The locations of the maxima in asymmetry coincide approximately with the locations of the maxima in kurtosis.
Experimental and simulation data [Moreau et al., Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 62, 014013 (2019); Kaymak et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 035004 (2016)] indicate that self-generated magnetic fields play an important role in enhancing the flux and energy of relativistic electrons accelerated by ultra-intense laser pulse irradiation with nanostructured arrays. A fully relativistic analytical model for the generation of the magnetic field based on electron magneto-hydrodynamic description is presented here. The analytical model shows that this self-generated magnetic field originates in the nonparallel density gradient and fast electron current at the interfaces of a nanolayered target. A general formula for the self-generated magnetic field is found, which closely agrees with the simulation scaling over the relevant intensity range. The result is beneficial to the experimental designs for the interaction of the laser pulse with the nanostructured arrays to improve laser-to-electron energy coupling and the quality of forward hot electrons.
Triptorelin (TRI), a gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist allowing ovulation synchronization in pigs, is indispensable for fixed-time artificial insemination (FTAI) protocols. However, the effect of FTAI using TRI (FTAI-TRI) on the reproductive performance is controversial. We performed a meta-analysis to determine whether FTAI-TRI affects reproductive performance of pigs, including pregnancy rate (PR), number of pigs born alive per litter (NBA), farrowing rate (FR) and total number of pigs born per litter (TNB). A total of 37 trials from 15 studies were extracted and analysed in Stata. A weighted mean difference (WMD) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was calculated for NBA and TNB, and risk ratio (RR) with 95% CI was calculated for PR and FR. Pregnancy rate, TNB and NBA data were applied to a fixed-effect protocol, and FR data were applied to a random-effect protocol. We found that for weaned sows, the FTAI-TRI group had comparable reproductive performance to the artificial insemination (AI) following oestrus detection (EDAI) group. Fixed-time AI has many advantages, including the elimination of the need to heat-check twice daily, so that FTAI-TRI is a good substitute for EDAI. Subgroup analysis indicated that the optimal timing of triptorelin treatment was 96 h after weaning, which gave significant positive effects on PR (RR = 1.08, P = 0.000) and non-significant positive effects on TNB (WMD = 0.12, P = 0.452). Triptorelin at a dose of 100 μg showed better effects than 200 μg, with significant positive effects on PR (RR = 1.09, P = 0.005) and FR (RR = 1.06, P = 0.036). So a single dose of 100 μg was recommended. The optimal protocol was insemination at 24 h and again at 48 h after triptorelin administration if they remained in standing oestrus, and this provided a significantly higher NBA (WMD = 0.59, P = 0.013) that increased by 0.59. For gilts, the FTAI-TRI group showed decreased (not significant) PR (RR = 0.96, P = 0.127) and significantly decreased FR (RR = 0.93, P = 0.013), TNB (WMD = −0.85, P = 0.006) and NBA (WMD = −0.98, P = 0.000), which were inferior to those in the EDAI group. In conclusion, the effects of FTAI-TRI on the reproductive performance of pigs were parity-, treatment timing-, insemination timing-, and dosage-dependent. Fixed-time AI using triptorelin could effectively replace the EDAI protocol for sows, but not for gilts.
The Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) is an open access telescope dedicated to studying the low-frequency (80–300 MHz) southern sky. Since beginning operations in mid-2013, the MWA has opened a new observational window in the southern hemisphere enabling many science areas. The driving science objectives of the original design were to observe 21 cm radiation from the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR), explore the radio time domain, perform Galactic and extragalactic surveys, and monitor solar, heliospheric, and ionospheric phenomena. All together
$60+$
programs recorded 20 000 h producing 146 papers to date. In 2016, the telescope underwent a major upgrade resulting in alternating compact and extended configurations. Other upgrades, including digital back-ends and a rapid-response triggering system, have been developed since the original array was commissioned. In this paper, we review the major results from the prior operation of the MWA and then discuss the new science paths enabled by the improved capabilities. We group these science opportunities by the four original science themes but also include ideas for directions outside these categories.
Seasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average (SARIMA) has been widely used to model and forecast incidence of infectious diseases in time-series analysis. This study aimed to model and forecast monthly cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China. Monthly incidence HFMD cases in China from May 2008 to August 2018 were analysed with the SARIMA model. A seasonal variation of HFMD incidence was found from May 2008 to August 2018 in China, with a predominant peak from April to July and a trough from January to March. In addition, the annual peak occurred periodically with a large annual peak followed by a relatively small annual peak. A SARIMA model of SARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 was identified, and the mean error rate and determination coefficient were 16.86% and 94.27%, respectively. There was an annual periodicity and seasonal variation of HFMD incidence in China, which could be predicted well by a SARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 model.
Starch digestion in the small intestines of the dairy cow is low, to a large extent, due to a shortage of syntheses of α-amylase. One strategy to improve the situation is to enhance the synthesis of α-amylase. The mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signalling pathway, which acts as a central regulator of protein synthesis, can be activated by leucine. Our objectives were to investigate the effects of leucine on the mTOR signalling pathway and to define the associations between these signalling activities and the synthesis of pancreatic enzymes using an in vitro model of cultured Holstein dairy calf pancreatic tissue. The pancreatic tissue was incubated in culture medium containing l-leucine for 3 h, and samples were collected hourly, with the control being included but not containing l-leucine. The leucine supplementation increased α-amylase and trypsin activities and the messenger RNA expression of their coding genes (P <0.05), and it enhanced the mTOR synthesis and the phosphorylation of mTOR, ribosomal protein S6 kinase 1 and eukaryotic initiation factor 4E-binding protein 1 (P <0.05). In addition, rapamycin inhibited the mTOR signal pathway factors during leucine treatment. In sum, the leucine regulates α-amylase and trypsin synthesis in dairy calves through the regulation of the mTOR signal pathways.
Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) has been used to model nationwide tuberculosis (TB) incidence in other countries. This study aimed to characterise monthly TB notification rate in China. Monthly TB notification rate from 2005 to 2017 was used. Time-series analysis was based on a SARIMA model and a hybrid model of SARIMA-generalised regression neural network (GRNN) model. A decreasing trend (3.17% per years, P < 0.01) and seasonal variation of TB notification rate were found from 2005 to 2016 in China, with a predominant peak in spring. A SARIMA model of ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 was identified. The mean error rate of the single SARIMA model and the SARIMA–GRNN combination model was 6.07% and 2.56%, and the determination coefficient was 0.73 and 0.94, respectively. The better performance of the SARIMA–GRNN combination model was further confirmed with the forecasting dataset (2017). TB is a seasonal disease in China, with a predominant peak in spring, and the trend of TB decreased by 3.17% per year. The SARIMA–GRNN model was more effective than the widely used SARIMA model at predicting TB incidence.
Little is known about the combined use of benzodiazepines and antidepressants in older psychiatric patients. This study examined the prescription pattern of concurrent benzodiazepines in older adults treated with antidepressants in Asia, and explored its demographic and clinical correlates.
Methods:
The data of 955 older adults with any type of psychiatric disorders were extracted from the database of the Research on Asian Psychotropic Prescription Patterns for Antidepressants (REAP-AD) project. Demographic and clinical characteristics were recorded using a standardized protocol and data collection procedure. Both univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed.
Results:
The proportion of benzodiazepine and antidepressant combination in this cohort was 44.3%. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that higher doses of antidepressants, younger age (<65 years), inpatients, public hospital, major comorbid medical conditions, antidepressant types, and country/territory were significantly associated with more frequent co-prescription of benzodiazepines and antidepressants.
Conclusions:
Nearly, half of the older adults treated with antidepressants in Asia are prescribed concurrent benzodiazepines. Given the potentially adverse effects of benzodiazepines, the rationale of benzodiazepines and antidepressants co-prescription needs to be revisited.
The bird cherry-oat aphid Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) is one of the most important wheat pests with polyphagia and autumn migrants. And, chemosensory genes were thought to play a key role in insect searching their hosts, food and mate. However, a systematic identification of the chemosensory genes in this pest has not been reported. Thus, in this study, we identified 14 odorant-binding proteins, nine chemosensory proteins, one sensory neuron membrane protein, 15 odorant receptors, 19 gustatory receptors and 16 ionotropic receptors from R. padi transcriptomes with a significantly similarity (E-value < 10−5) to known chemosensory genes in Acyrthosiphon pisum and Aphis gossypii. In addition, real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) was employed to determine the expression profiles of obtained genes. Among these obtained genes, we selected 23 chemosensory genes to analyze their expression patterns in different tissues, wing morphs and host plants. We found that except RpOBP1, RpOBP3, RpOBP4 and RpOBP5, the rest of the selected genes were highly expressed in the head with antennae compared with body without head and antennae. Besides that, the stimulation and depression of chemosensory genes by plant switch indicated that chemosensory genes might be involved in the plant suitability assessment. These results not only provide insights for the potential roles of chemosensory genes in plant search and perception of R. padi but also provide initial background information for the further research on the molecular mechanism of the polyphagia and autumn migrants of it. Furthermore, these chemosensory genes are also the candidate targets for pest management control in future.