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Avian influenza (AI) is an important disease that has significant implications for animal and human health. High pathogenicity AI (HPAI) has emerged in consecutive seasons within the UK to cause the largest outbreaks recorded. Statutory measures to control outbreaks of AI virus (AIV) at poultry farms involve disposal of all birds on infected premises. Understanding of the timing of incursions into the UK could facilitate decisions on improved responses. During the autumnal migration and wintering period (autumn 2019– spring 2020), three active sampling approaches were trialled for wild bird species considered likely to be involved in captive AI outbreaks with retrospective laboratory testing undertaken to define the presence of AIV.
Faecal sampling of birds (n = 594) caught during routine and responsive mist net sampling failed to detect AIV. Cloacal sampling of hunter-harvested waterfowl (n = 146) detected seven positive samples from three species with the earliest detection on the 17 October 2020. Statutory sampling first detected AIV in wild and captive birds on 3 November 2020. We conclude that hunter sourced sampling of waterfowl presents an opportunity to detect AI within the UK in advance of outbreaks on poultry farms and allow for early intervention measures to protect the national poultry flock.
Relapse and recurrence of depression are common, contributing to the overall burden of depression globally. Accurate prediction of relapse or recurrence while patients are well would allow the identification of high-risk individuals and may effectively guide the allocation of interventions to prevent relapse and recurrence.
Aims
To review prognostic models developed to predict the risk of relapse, recurrence, sustained remission, or recovery in adults with remitted major depressive disorder.
Method
We searched the Cochrane Library (current issue); Ovid MEDLINE (1946 onwards); Ovid Embase (1980 onwards); Ovid PsycINFO (1806 onwards); and Web of Science (1900 onwards) up to May 2021. We included development and external validation studies of multivariable prognostic models. We assessed risk of bias of included studies using the Prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST).
Results
We identified 12 eligible prognostic model studies (11 unique prognostic models): 8 model development-only studies, 3 model development and external validation studies and 1 external validation-only study. Multiple estimates of performance measures were not available and meta-analysis was therefore not necessary. Eleven out of the 12 included studies were assessed as being at high overall risk of bias and none examined clinical utility.
Conclusions
Due to high risk of bias of the included studies, poor predictive performance and limited external validation of the models identified, presently available clinical prediction models for relapse and recurrence of depression are not yet sufficiently developed for deploying in clinical settings. There is a need for improved prognosis research in this clinical area and future studies should conform to best practice methodological and reporting guidelines.
Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.
Blackhead Quarry exploits a small Miocene (~10 Ma) basanitic volcanic centre in the Dunedin Volcanic Group, New Zealand. Vesicles near the quarry top contain Ca– and Na-rich zeolites, abundant calcite and rare pyrite resulting from localized low-T hydrothermal alteration (<100°C). Mineral assemblages were characterized by EDS and laser Raman spectroscopy with the latter the most useful in determining the identity of fibrous zeolite species. Secondary mineral assemblages crystallized during final stages of lava cooling from aqueous solutions enriched in Ca, Na, K, Ba and (CO3)2–leached from surrounding calcareous rocks and basanite. Phillipsite-K (generation I) crystallized first (in some places directly on fresh basanite) followed by the Ca-rich zeolites, chabazite-Ca, calcian phillipsite–K (generation II), gismondine and thomsonite. Later Na-rich fluids crystallized gonnardite and natrolite, and finally calcite from late Ca-rich fluids. Zeolite composition is not reflected by morphology. For example, both phacolitic and pseudocubic chabazite are chabazite-Ca, and although all phillipsite crystals have a similar habit, their composition varies widely. Various lithologies comprising the Blackhead volcanic centre have unique secondary mineral paragenetic sequences controlled largely by the rock structure and solution chemistry.
Introduction: ex-specific diagnostic cutoffs may improve the test characteristics of high-sensitivity troponin assays for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction. Sex-specific cutoffs for ruling in MI improve the sensitivity of the assay for MI among women, and improve the specificity of diagnosis among men. We hypothesized that the use of sex-specific high-sensitivity Troponin T (hsTnT) cutoffs for ruling out MI at the time of ED arrival would improve the classification efficiency of the assay by enabling more patients to have MI ruled out at the time of ED arrival while maintaining diagnostic sensitivity. The objective of this study was to quantify the test characteristics of sex-specific cutoffs of an hsTnT assay for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) when performed at ED arrival in patients with chest pain. Methods: This retrospective study included consecutive ED patients with suspected cardiac chest pain evaluated in four urban EDs were, excluding those with ST-elevation AMI, cardiac arrest or abnormal kidney function. The primary outcomes was AMI at 7 days. Secondary outcomes included major adverse cardiac events (MACE: all-cause mortality, AMI and revascularization) and the individual MACE components. We quantified test characteristics (sensitivity, negative predictive value, likelihood ratios and proportion of patients ruled out) for multiple combinations of sex-specific rule-out cutoffs. We calculated net reclassification improvement compared to universal rule-out cutoffs of 5ng/L (the assays limit of detection) and 6ng/L (the FDA-approved limit of quantitation for US laboratories). Results: 7130 patients, including 3931 men and 3199 women, were included. The 7-day incidence of AMI was 7.38% among men and 3.78% among women. Universal cutoffs of 5 and 6 ng/L ruled out AMI with 99.7% sensitivity in 33.6 and 42.2% of patients. The best-performing combination of sex-specific cutoffs (8g/L for men and 6ng/L for men) ruled out AMI with 98.7% sensitivity in 51.9% of patients. Conclusion: Sex-specific hsTnT cutoffs for ruling out AMI at ED arrival may achieve substantial improvement in classification performance, enabling more patients to be ruled out at ED arrival, while maintaining acceptable diagnostic sensitivity for AMI. Universal and sex-specific rule-out cutoffs differ by only small changes in hsTnT concentration. Therefore, these findings should be confirmed in other datasets.
Introduction: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk of cardiovascular events, and have worse outcomes following acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Cardiac troponin is often elevated in CKD, making the diagnosis of AMI challenging in this population. We sought to quantify test characteristics for AMI of a high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) assay performed at emergency department (ED) arrival in CKD patients with chest pain, and to derive rule-out cutoffs specific to patient subgroups stratified by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We also quantified the sensitivity and classification performance of the assays limit of detection (5 ng/L) and the FDA-approved limit of quantitation (6 ng/L) for ruling out AMI at ED arrival. Methods: Consecutive patients in four urban EDs from the 2013 calendar year with suspected cardiac chest pain who had a Roche Elecsys hsTnT assay performed on arrival were included f. This analysis was restricted to patients with an eGFR< 60 ml/min/1.73m2. The primary outcome was 7-day AMI. Secondary outcomes included major adverse cardiac events (death, AMI and revascularization). Test characteristics were calculated and ROC curves were generated for eGFR subgroups. Results: 1416 patients were included. 7-day AMI incidence was 10.1%. 73% of patients had an initial hsTnT concentration greater than the assays 99th percentile (14 ng/L). TCurrently accepted cutoffs to rule out MI at ED arrival ( 5 ng/L and 6 ng/L) had 100% sensitivity for AMI, but no patients with an eGFR less than 30 ml/min/1.73M had hsTnT concentrations below these thresholds. We derived eGFR-adjusted cutoffs to rule out MI with sensitivity >98% at ED arrival, which were able to rule out 6-42% of patients, depending on eGFR category. The proportion of patients able to be accurately ruled-in with a single hsTnT assay was substantially lower among patients with an eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73m2 (6-20% vs 25-43%). We also derived eGFR-adjusted cutoffs to rule-in AMI with specificity >90%, which accurately ruled-in up to 18% of patients. Conclusion: Cutoffs achieving acceptable diagnostic performance for AMI using single hsTnT sampling on ED arrival may have limited clinical utility, particularly among patients with very low eGFR. The ideal diagnostic strategy for AMI in patients with CKD likely involves serial high-sensitivity troponin testing with diagnostic thresholds customized to different eGFR categories.
Radio emission from astrophysical transients allows us to derive calorimetry of kinetic feedback and detailed imaging in ways that are not possible at other wavelengths, and as such it forms an important part of the multi-messenger follow-ups of these events. The field is burgeoning, with a renaissance of interest in accretion, stellar explosions and jetted supernovæ, alongside newer classes of phenomena such as fast radio bursts and tidal disruption events. The purpose of this workshop was to discuss the infrastructure and techniques for detecting, identifying and probing radio transients, with a particular focus on how best to exploit transient alerts from multi-messenger facilities. We examined the type of transient alerts those facilities will broadcast, and methods for following them up, such as rapid-response triggering and shadowing. In break-out groups, participants chose a science question related to a particular radio transient type or class and discussed whether the planned transient strategies and observing techniques on the Square Kilometre Array will be adequate to address the particular question. The classes they chose included fast radio bursts, supernovæ, cataclysmic variable and unknown transients. Any proposed adaptation or suggestion was relayed to a panel of experts for further discussion. The second part of the workshop concentrated on the application of long baseline interferometry for detecting and measuring radio transients.
Maternal vitamin B12 (B12) status has been inversely associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes and positively with fetal growth and infant development. South Asians, Canada’s largest ethnic minority, are prone to B12 deficiency. Yet, data are lacking on B12 status in South Asian pregnant women in North America. We sought to determine B12 status, using multiple biomarkers, in 1st and 2nd trimester pregnant women of South Asian and, for comparison, European ethnicity living in Vancouver, Canada. In this retrospective cohort study, total B12, holotranscobalamin (holoTC), methylmalonic acid (MMA), and total homocysteine concentrations were quantified in two routinely collected (mean gestational week: 11·5 (range 8·3–13·9) and 16·5 (range 14·9–20·9)), banked serum samples of 748 healthy pregnant South Asian (n 371) and European (n 377) women. South Asian pregnant women had significantly lower B12 status than European pregnant women at both time points, as indicated by lower serum total B12 and holoTC concentrations, and higher MMA concentrations (all P≤0·001). The largest difference, which was substantial (Cohen’s d≥0·5), was observed in mean serum total B12 concentrations (1st trimester: 189 (95 % CI 180, 199) v. 246 (95 % CI 236, 257) pmol/l; 2nd trimester: 176 (95 % CI 168, 185) v. 226 (95 % CI 216, 236) pmol/l). Further, South Asian ethnicity was a significant negative predictor of B12 status during pregnancy. South Asian women living in Vancouver have substantially lower B12 status during early pregnancy. Future research identifying predictors and health consequences of this observed difference is needed to allow for targeted interventions.
Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained arrhythmia affecting 1-2% of the population. Oral anticoagulation (OAC) reduces stroke risk by 60-80% in AF patients, but only 50% of indicated patients receive OAC. Many patients present to the ED with AF due to arrhythmia symptoms, however; lack of OAC prescription in the ED has been identified as a significant gap in the care of AF patients. Methods: This was a multi-center, pragmatic, three-phase before-after study, in three Canadian sites. Patients who presented to the ED with electrocardiographically (ECG) documented, nonvalvular AF and were discharged home were included. Phase 1 was a retrospective chart review to determine OAC prescription of AF patients in each ED; Phase 2 was a low-intensity knowledge translation intervention where a simple OAC-prescription tool for ED physicians with subsequent short-term OAC prescription was used, as well as an AF patient education package and a letter to family physicians; phase 3 incorporated Phase 2 interventions, but added immediate follow-up in a community AF clinic. The primary outcome of the study was the rate of new OAC prescriptions at ED discharge in AF patients who were OAC eligible and were not on OAC at presentation. Results: A total of 632 patients were included from June, 2015-November, 2016. ED census ranged from 30000-68000 annual visits. Mean age was 71±15, 67±12, 67±13 years, respectively. 47.5% were women, most responsible ED diagnosis was AF in 75.8%. The mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 2.6±1.8, with no difference amongst groups. There were 266 patients eligible for OAC and were not on this at presentation. In this group, the prescription of new OAC was 15.8% in Phase 1 as compared to 54% and 47%, in Phases 2 and 3, respectively. After adjustment for center, components of the CHA2DS2-VASc score, prior risk of bleeding and most responsible ED diagnosis, the odds ratio for new OAC prescription was 8.0 (95%CI (3.5,18.3) p<0.001) for Phase 3 vs 1, and 10.0 (95%CI (4.4,22.9) p<0.001), for Phase 2 vs 1). No difference in OAC prescription was seen between Phases 2 and 3. Conclusion: Use of a simple OAC-prescription tool was associated with an increase in new OAC prescription in the ED for eligible patients with AF. Further testing in a rigorous study design to assess the effect of this practice on stroke prevention in the AF patients who present to the ED is indicated.
Introduction: Chest pain and symptoms of acute coronary syndrome are responsible for a large proportion of ED visits and acute hospitalizations. However, only about 15% of patients presenting to the ED with high-risk symptoms do, in fact, have an acute coronary syndrome. The objective of this study is to derive a 2-hour high-sensitivity Troponin T (hsTnT) testing algorithm with outcome based-cutoffs to rapidly rule out acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in a large proportion of ED chest pain patients. Methods: Patients included consecutive ED patients with a chief complaint of cardiac chest pain who had an hsTnT assay performed at ED arrival and 2 hours after ED arrival. Administrative databases were queried to identify troponin results and major adverse cardiac outcomes (MACE) including death, MI, and revascularization. Test characteristics of iterative combinations of initial troponin level and absolute change in troponin level were quantified in order to identify the testing algorithm that identified the greatest proportion of patients eligible for early discharge while maintaining a target sensitivity of 98.5% for the primary outcome of 7-day AMI. Results: 755 eligible patients had hsTnT assays performed at ED arrival and at 2 hours. 91 patients (12.1%) had a 7-day AMI while 108 (14.0%) had 7-day MACE. An initial hsTnT level of less than 14 ng/L, in combination with a 2-hour absolute change of less than 10ng/L had a sensitivity of 98.9% (95% CI 94.0,99.8) and an NPV of 99.8% (95% CI 98.7, 100.0) for 7-day AMI. This identified 58.5% of all patients as being suitable for early discharge. Sensitivity and NPV for 7-day MACE were 90.0% (95% CI 83.3, 94.2) and 97.3% (95% CI 95.3,98.4) respectively. Sex-specific differences in test characteristics were not clinically important. Rule-in hsTnT cutoffs were also evaluated, with specificities ranging from 85-95%, although cutoffs with higher specificity had less ability to rapidly rule-in AMI, leaving more patients with indeterminate results after 2 hours. Conclusion: A hsTnT algorithm can safely and accurately rule out AMI in 58.5% of ED chest pain patients within 2 hours of ED arrival. The lower sensitivity of this algorithm for MACE compared to AMI speaks to the importance of clinical assessment and ECG findings in identifying patients at risk for acute coronary syndromes.
Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope Network (LCOGT) is currently building a new kind of general-purpose astronomical facility: a fully robotic network of telescopes of 2m, 1m and 0.4m apertures and homogeneous instrumentation. A pan-network approach to scheduling (rather than per individual telescope) offers redundancy in the event of poor weather or technical failure, as well as the ability to observe a target around the clock. Here we describe the network design and instrumentation under development, together with the main science programmes already being lead by LCOGT staff.
This work reports the continuous and large-scale production of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) from xylene/ferrocene in a swirled floating catalyst chemical vapor deposition reactor using argon as the carrier gas. The concentration of ferrocene used was 0.01 g/mL of xylene. In every run, 50-mL xylene gas was used together with xylene/ferrocene mixture injected into the reactor by means of a burette. The MWCNTs produced were characterized using the transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and Raman spectra. TEM analysis showed a poor production rate at 850 °C and a good production in the range of 900–1000 °C with optimal production rate at 950 °C. Furthermore, xylene/ferrocene mixture produced more MWCNTs at 950 °C with H:Ar (1:7) as the carrier gas. The diameters of the MWCNTs in the temperatures studied ranged from 15 to 95 nm with wall thicknesses between 0.5 and 0.8 nm.