In practice, nondestructive testing (NDT) procedures tend to consider experiments (and their respective models) as distinct, conducted in isolation, and associated with independent data. In contrast, this work looks to capture the interdependencies between acoustic emission (AE) experiments (as meta-models) and then use the resulting functions to predict the model hyperparameters for previously unobserved systems. We utilize a Bayesian multilevel approach (similar to deep Gaussian Processes) where a higher-level meta-model captures the inter-task relationships. Our key contribution is how knowledge of the experimental campaign can be encoded between tasks as well as within tasks. We present an example of AE time-of-arrival mapping for source localization, to illustrate how multilevel models naturally lend themselves to representing aggregate systems in engineering. We constrain the meta-model based on domain knowledge, then use the inter-task functions for transfer learning, predicting hyperparameters for models of previously unobserved experiments (for a specific design).

An array of information about the Antarctic ice sheet can be extracted from ice-sheet internal architecture imaged by airborne ice-penetrating radar surveys. We identify, trace and date three key internal reflection horizons (IRHs) across multiple radar surveys from South Pole to Dome A, East Antarctica. Ages of ~38 ± 2.2, ~90 ± 3.6 and ~162 ± 6.7 ka are assigned to the three IRHs, with verification of the upper IRH age from the South Pole ice core. The resultant englacial stratigraphy is used to identify the locations of the oldest ice, specifically in the upper Byrd Glacier catchment and the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains. The distinct glaciological conditions of the Gamburtsev Mountains, including slower ice flow, low geothermal heat flux and frozen base, make it the more likely to host the oldest ice. We also observe a distinct drawdown of IRH geometry around South Pole, indicative of melting from enhanced geothermal heat flux or the removal of deeper, older ice under a previous faster ice flow regime. Our traced IRHs underpin the wider objective to develop a continental-scale database of IRHs which will constrain and validate future ice-sheet modelling and the history of the Antarctic ice sheet.

A number of nearby dwarf galaxies have globular cluster (GC) candidates that require spectroscopic confirmation. Here, we present Keck telescope spectra for 15 known GCs and GC candidates that may be associated with a host dwarf galaxy and an additional 3 GCs in the halo of M31 that are candidates for accretion from a now-disrupted dwarf galaxy. We confirm six star clusters (of intermediate-to-old age) to be associated with NGC 247. The vast bulk of its GC system remains to be studied spectroscopically. We also confirm the GC candidates in F8D1 and DDO190, finding both to be young star clusters. The three M31 halo GCs all have radial velocities consistent with M31 and are old and very metal-poor. Their ages and metallicities are consistent with accretion from a low-mass satellite galaxy. Finally, three objects are found to be background galaxies – two are projected near NGC 247 and one (candidate GCC7) is near the IKN dwarf. The IKN dwarf thus has only five confirmed GCs but still a remarkable specific frequency of 124.

We revisit the topic of common lines between projection images in single-particle cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM). We derive a novel low-rank constraint on a certain 2n × n matrix storing properly scaled basis vectors for the common lines between n projection images of one molecular conformation. Using this algebraic constraint and others, we give optimization algorithms to denoise common lines and recover the unknown 3D rotations associated with the images. As an application, we develop a clustering algorithm to partition a set of noisy images into homogeneous communities using common lines, in the case of discrete heterogeneity in cryo-EM. We demonstrate the methods on synthetic and experimental datasets.

Evidence from previous research suggests that frame-of-reference (FOR) training is effective at improving assessor ratings in many organizational settings. Yet no research has presented a thorough examination of systematic sources of variance (assessor-related effects, evaluation settings, and measurement design features) that might influence training effectiveness. Using a factorial ANOVA and variance components analyses on a database of four studies of frame-of-reference assessor training, we found that (a) training is most effective at identifying low levels of performance and (b) the setting of the training makes little difference with respect to training effectiveness. We also show evidence of the importance of rater training as a key determinant of the quality of performance ratings in general. Implications for FOR training theory and practice are discussed.

Commentaries on the target article offer diverse perspectives on integrative experiment design. Our responses engage three themes: (1) Disputes of our characterization of the problem, (2) skepticism toward our proposed solution, and (3) endorsement of the solution, with accompanying discussions of its implementation in existing work and its potential for other domains. Collectively, the commentaries enhance our confidence in the promise and viability of integrative experiment design, while highlighting important considerations about how it is used.

Ice-contact lakes modify glacier geometry and dynamics by shifting the majority of mass loss from the ice surface to the terminus. Lake-terminating glaciers are known to experience greater thinning rates and higher velocities than land-terminating glaciers, but the controls on variability in surface elevation change and ice flow between lake-terminating glaciers in different regions remain poorly explored. We combined existing datasets of glacier velocity, surface elevation change and glacial lake area to characterise the evolution of 352 lake-terminating and land-terminating glaciers within three Himalayan sub-regions between 2000 and 2019. These analyses show that the influence of ice-contact lakes propagates up-glacier across only the lowermost 30% of the hypsometric distribution, even where lakes are well established. We find that ice-contact lakes only affect glacier behaviour when the lakes reach an advanced evolutionary stage; most clearly manifested in the Eastern Himalaya by statistically robust differences in glacier-wide surface elevation change between lake-terminating (–0.68 ± 0.05 m a–1) and land-terminating (–0.54 ± 0.04 m a–1) glaciers. These differences are driven by the presence of a greater number of well-developed ice-contact lakes in the Eastern Himalaya compared to in the Western and Central Himalaya, resulting from greater mass loss rates to date.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic, zoonotic infection of domestic and wild animals caused mainly by Mycobacterium bovis. The Test and Vaccinate or Remove (TVR) project was a 5-year intervention (2014–2018) applied to Eurasian badgers (Meles meles) in a 100 km2 area of County Down, Northern Ireland. This observational study used routine bTB surveillance data of cattle to determine if the TVR intervention had any effect in reducing the infection at a herd level. The study design included the TVR treatment area (Banbridge) compared to the three adjacent 100 km2 areas (Dromore, Ballynahinch, and Castlewellan) which did not receive any badger intervention. Results showed that there were statistically lower bTB herd incidence rate ratios in the Banbridge TVR area compared to two of the other three comparison areas, but with bTB herd history and number of bTB infected cattle being the main explanatory variables along with Year. This finding is consistent with other study results conducted as part of the TVR project that suggested that the main transmission route for bTB in the area was cattle-to-cattle spread. This potentially makes any wildlife intervention in the TVR area of less relevance to bTB levels in cattle. It must also be noted that the scientific power of the TVR study (76%) was below the recommended 80%, meaning that results must be interpreted with caution. Even though statistical significance was achieved in two cattle-related risk factors, other potential risk factors may have also demonstrated significance in a larger study.

The effects of anthropogenic aerosol, solid or liquid particles suspended in the air, are the biggest contributor to uncertainty in current climate perturbations. Heavy industry sites, such as coal power plants and steel manufacturers, large sources of greenhouse gases, also emit large amounts of aerosol in a small area. This makes them ideal places to study aerosol interactions with radiation and clouds. However, existing data sets of heavy industry locations are either not public, or suffer from reporting gaps. Here, we develop a supervised deep learning algorithm to detect unreported industry sites in high-resolution satellite data, using the existing data sets for training. For the pipeline to be viable at global scale, we employ a two-step approach. The first step uses 10 m resolution data, which is scanned for potential industry sites, before using 1.2 m resolution images to confirm or reject detections. On held-out test data, the models perform well, with the lower resolution one reaching up to 94% accuracy. Deployed to a large test region, the first stage model yields many false positive detections. The second stage, higher resolution model shows promising results at filtering these out, while keeping the true positives, improving the precision to 42% overall, so that human review becomes feasible. In the deployment area, we find five new heavy industry sites which were not in the training data. This demonstrates that the approach can be used to complement existing data sets of heavy industry sites.

The interaction of steady free-surface flows of viscoplastic material with a surface-piercing obstruction of square cross-section on an inclined plane is investigated theoretically. The flow thickness increases upstream of the obstruction and decreases in its lee. The flow depends on two dimensionless parameters: an aspect ratio that relates the flow thickness, the obstruction width and the plane inclination; and a Bingham number that quantifies the magnitude of the yield stress relative to the gravitationally induced stresses. Flows with a non-vanishing yield stress always form a static ‘dead’ zone in a neighbourhood of the upstream and downstream stagnation points. For relatively wide obstructions, a deep ‘ponded’ region develops upstream with a small dead zone, while the deflected flow reconnects over relatively long distances downstream. The depth of the upstream pond increases with both the dimensionless yield stress and width of the obstruction, while the unyielded dead zone varies primarily with the yield stress. Both are predicted asymptotically by balancing the volume flux of fluid into and out of the ponded region. When the obstruction is narrow, the perturbation to the depth of the oncoming flow is reduced. It exhibits fore–aft antisymmetry, while the dead zone is symmetric to leading order. Increasing the yield stress leads to larger dead zones that eventually encompass all of the upstream- and downstream-facing boundaries of the obstruction and fully divert the flow. Results for obstructions with circular and rhomboidal cross-sections are also presented and illustrate the effects of boundary shape on the properties of the steady flow.

Frontal ablation, the combination of submarine melting and iceberg calving, changes the geometry of a glacier's terminus, influencing glacier dynamics, the fate of upwelling plumes and the distribution of submarine meltwater input into the ocean. Directly observing frontal ablation and terminus morphology below the waterline is difficult, however, limiting our understanding of these coupled ice–ocean processes. To investigate the evolution of a tidewater glacier's submarine terminus, we combine 3-D multibeam point clouds of the subsurface ice face at LeConte Glacier, Alaska, with concurrent observations of environmental conditions during three field campaigns between 2016 and 2018. We observe terminus morphology that was predominately overcut (52% in August 2016, 63% in May 2017 and 74% in September 2018), accompanied by high multibeam sonar-derived melt rates (4.84 m d−1 in 2016, 1.13 m d−1 in 2017 and 1.85 m d−1 in 2018). We find that periods of high subglacial discharge lead to localized undercut discharge outlets, but adjacent to these outlets the terminus maintains significantly overcut geometry, with an ice ramp that protrudes 75 m into the fjord in 2017 and 125 m in 2018. Our data challenge the assumption that tidewater glacier termini are largely undercut during periods of high submarine melting.

The debris that covers the ablation areas of high-elevation debris-covered glaciers contributes to the distinctive features and processes occurring both on and within such glaciers. Despite recent advances, knowledge of the subsurface environments of high-elevation debris-covered glaciers is still extremely limited. In particular, targeted field-based data are needed to parameterise and refine the projections of these glaciers in numerical models. Here, we outline the current understanding of the internal properties of high-elevation debris-covered glaciers based on direct field-based methods and suggest future research directions for field-based studies.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted the lack of agreement regarding the definition of aerosol-generating procedures and potential risk to healthcare personnel. We convened a group of Massachusetts healthcare epidemiologists to develop consensus through expert opinion in an area where broader guidance was lacking at the time.

Only 6 to 8 % of the UK adults meet the daily recommendation for dietary fibre. Fava bean processing lead to vast amounts of high-fibre by-products such as hulls. Bean hull fortified bread was formulated to increase and diversify dietary fibre while reducing waste. This study assessed the bean hull: suitability as a source of dietary fibre; the systemic and microbial metabolism of its components and postprandial events following bean hull bread rolls. Nine healthy participants (53·9 ± 16·7 years) were recruited for a randomised controlled crossover study attending two 3 days intervention sessions, involving the consumption of two bread rolls per day (control or bean hull rolls). Blood and faecal samples were collected before and after each session and analysed for systemic and microbial metabolites of bread roll components using targeted LC-MS/MS and GC analysis. Satiety, gut hormones, glucose, insulin and gastric emptying biomarkers were also measured. Two bean hull rolls provided over 85 % of the daily recommendation for dietary fibre; but despite being a rich source of plant metabolites (P = 0·04 v. control bread), these had poor systemic bioavailability. Consumption of bean hull rolls for 3 days significantly increased plasma concentration of indole-3-propionic acid (P = 0·009) and decreased faecal concentration of putrescine (P = 0·035) and deoxycholic acid (P = 0·046). However, it had no effect on postprandial plasma gut hormones, bacterial composition and faecal short chain fatty acids amount. Therefore, bean hulls require further processing to improve their bioactives systemic availability and fibre fermentation.

In hedonic theories of motivation, ‘motivational affective states’ (MASs) are typically seen as adaptations which motivate certain types of behaviour, especially in situations where a flexible or learned response is more adaptive than a rigid or reflexive one. MASs can be negative (eg unpleasant feelings of hunger or pain) or positive (eg pleasant feelings associated with eating and playing). Hedonic theories often portray negative and positive MASs as opposite ends of a one-dimensional scale.

We suggest that natural selection has favoured negative and positive affect as separate processes to solve two different types of motivational problems. We propose that negative MASs (eg thirst, fear) evolved in response to ‘need situations’ where the fitness benefit of an action has increased, often because the action is needed to cope with a threat to survival or reproductive success. We propose that these negative MASs develop in response to a change in the body (eg dehydration) or the environment (eg the approach of a predator) which creates the need for action, and that negative MASs can become intense and prolonged if the threat to fitness is high and persistent. We propose that positive MASs evolved in ‘opportunity situations ‘ where an action (eg playing, exploring) has become advantageous because the fitness cost of performing it has declined. We propose that these positive MASs occur during, or as a result of, the performance of types of behaviour which are beneficial for fitness at a variety of times, not only when they are required to meet immediate needs; and that the pleasure inherent in the behaviour motivates the animal to perform it when the cost of so doing is sufficiently low. Some behaviour (eg eating) can be motivated by both positive and negative affect. Other behaviour, such as playing or fleeing from a predator, may be motivated largely by positive or negative affect alone. Our hypothesis needs to be tested, but we suggest that it corresponds well to common human experience.

The hypothesis provides a basis for predicting whether an aspect of animal management is likely to cause strong and prolonged negative affect (‘suffering’), or to prevent animals from experiencing certain types of pleasure. This distinction is important for bringing animal welfare assessment into line with ethical concerns.

Many popular books and articles that purport to explain how people, companies, orideas succeed highlight a few successes chosen to fit a particular narrative. Weinvestigate what effect these highly selected “success narratives”have on readers’ beliefs and decisions. We conducted a large, randomized,pre-registered experiment, showing participants successful firms with foundersthat all either dropped out of or graduated college, and asked them to makeincentive-compatible bets on a new firm. Despite acknowledging biases in theexamples, participants’ decisions were very strongly influenced by them.People shown dropout founders were 55 percentage points more likely to bet on adropout-founded company than people who were shown graduate founders. Mostreported medium to high confidence in their bets, and many wrote causalexplanations justifying their decision. In light of recent concerns about falseinformation, our findings demonstrate how true but biased information canstrongly alter beliefs and decisions.

Quality of life (QoL) is increasingly recognised as a more important measure of treatment success than prolongation of life. Assessment of QoL may aid decision-making for treatment or euthanasia. This study aimed to evaluate owners’ perceptions of factors affecting their horse's QoL and those factors that may contribute to their decision-making process for treatment or euthanasia of geriatric horses. A cross-sectional study was conducted, surveying a randomly selected sample of veterinary registered owners (n = 1,144) with horses aged ≥ 15 years, using a self-administered postal questionnaire. A section of this questionnaire contained 16 mixed-mode questions about the horse's QoL and factors influencing decisions on treatment. Horses from the cross-sectional survey were enrolled in a longitudinal study and, for cases of euthanasia, a further telephone questionnaire was completed to investigate factors influencing the owner's decision. Owners reported that the majority of geriatric animals enjoyed a high QoL, with 95% of owners rating their horse's QoL as good or excellent on an average day. However, increasing age corresponded negatively with many of the health-related QoL factors. Owners considered long-term diseases that cause chronic pain to affect their animal's QoL more than a disease causing a single episode of acute pain. The most important factors influencing choice of treatment options for a severe illness or injury were QoL after procedure, life-threatening disorders, painful/stressful procedures and veterinary advice. In conclusion, owner ratings and perceptions of factors affecting QoL of geriatric horses may prove useful in the development of a QoL assessment tool for ageing horses.