Approximately 40% of cancers in the UK are attributable to modifiable, lifestyle risk factors such as overweight and obesity and low dietary fibre intake(1). The WCRF and AICR published ten lifestyle- based Cancer Prevention Recommendations with the aim of reducing the risk of cancer and other non-communicable diseases(2). In the UK Biobank cohort, we have found reduced risk of cancer overall and of breast and colorectal cancers with greater adherence to these Cancer Prevention Recommendations (i.e., healthier lifestyles). The present study aimed to investigate whether the magnitude of these associations is modified by the presence of co-morbidities, such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease, at baseline.

We used data from 94,778 participants (53% female, mean age 56 years) from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study, recruited between 2006 and 2010 and free from cancer at baseline. Adherence to the 2018 WCRF/AICR Cancer Prevention Recommendations was calculated from dietary, physical activity, and body composition data using a standardised score(3). Multimorbidity (list of 43 chronic diseases) was self-reported at baseline and categorised into: 0, 1, 2, or 3+ chronic illnesses. Incident cancer cases were identified using population-based cancer registries available until July 2019 for England and Wales and October 2015 for Scotland. Participants were categorised into approximate score tertiles, and the lowest tertile (lowest adherence, 0-3.5 points) was used as the reference category. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate associations between total score and incidence of cancer, adjusting for confounders, and to test for an interaction between total score and multimorbidity.

55,191 (58%) participants had one chronic illness at baseline and 8,430 (9%) had ≥3. Mean total 2018 WCRF/AICR score was 3.8 (SD 1.0) points, and participants with the presence of chronic illnesses had a significantly lower total score (mean for ≥3 illnesses = 3.58 points vs 3.96 points for participants without chronic illness, p<0.001). During a median follow-up of 8 years, 3,303 individuals developed cancer. When investigating associations between score tertiles and the risk of cancer overall, there was a significant interaction between the total score and multimorbidity (HR for interaction: 1.59, p=0.002). There was also evidence for an interaction between total score and multimorbidity with breast cancer risk (HR for interaction: 1.23, p=0.030), but no evidence of an interaction between total score and multimorbidity for risk of colorectal cancer.

We found stronger associations between total adherence score and the risk of cancer in participants with ≥3 chronic illnesses. This suggests that the chemoprotective effects of greater adherence to the 2018 WCRF/AICR Cancer Prevention Recommendations may be particularly beneficial for individuals with multimorbidity.

Under the European Union’s Solvency II regulations, insurance firms are required to use a one-year VaR (Value at Risk) approach. This involves a one-year projection of the balance sheet and requires sufficient capital to be solvent in 99.5% of outcomes. The Solvency II Internal Model risk calibrations require annual changes in market indices/term structure/transitions for the estimation of the risk distribution for each of the Internal Model risk drivers.

Transition and default risk are typically modelled using transition matrices. To model this risk requires a model of transition matrices and how these can change from year to year. In this paper, four such models have been investigated and compared to the raw data they are calibrated to. The models investigated are:

• A bootstrapping approach – sampling from an historical data set with replacement.

• The Vašíček model was calibrated using the Belkin approach.

• The K-means model – a new non-parametric model produced using the K-means clustering algorithm.

• A two-factor model – a new parametric model, using two factors (instead of a single factor with the Vašíček) to represent each matrix.

The models are compared in several ways:

1. 1. A principal components analysis (PCA) approach that compares how closely the models move compared to the raw data.

2. 2. A backtesting approach that compares how each model’s extreme percentile compares to regulatory backtesting requirements.

3. 3. A commentary on the amount of expert judgement in each model.

4. 4. Model simplicity and breadth of uses are also commented on.

The discovery of the first electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave signal has generated follow-up observations by over 50 facilities world-wide, ushering in the new era of multi-messenger astronomy. In this paper, we present follow-up observations of the gravitational wave event GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart SSS17a/DLT17ck (IAU label AT2017gfo) by 14 Australian telescopes and partner observatories as part of Australian-based and Australian-led research programs. We report early- to late-time multi-wavelength observations, including optical imaging and spectroscopy, mid-infrared imaging, radio imaging, and searches for fast radio bursts. Our optical spectra reveal that the transient source emission cooled from approximately 6 400 K to 2 100 K over a 7-d period and produced no significant optical emission lines. The spectral profiles, cooling rate, and photometric light curves are consistent with the expected outburst and subsequent processes of a binary neutron star merger. Star formation in the host galaxy probably ceased at least a Gyr ago, although there is evidence for a galaxy merger. Binary pulsars with short (100 Myr) decay times are therefore unlikely progenitors, but pulsars like PSR B1534+12 with its 2.7 Gyr coalescence time could produce such a merger. The displacement (~2.2 kpc) of the binary star system from the centre of the main galaxy is not unusual for stars in the host galaxy or stars originating in the merging galaxy, and therefore any constraints on the kick velocity imparted to the progenitor are poor.

High rates of surface uplift and horizontal velocities were measured during a hydrologically induced spring speed-up event. Spatial patterns of surface uplift are analyzed to estimate components of vertical motion due to flow along an inclined bed and vertical strain. Areas are identified where surface uplift was most likely due in part to the opening or enlargement of subglacial cavities by bed separation. Results suggest a widespread enlargement of subglacial cavities during the event, and survival of residual cavities after the event. The spatial pattern of cavity enlargement closely matches previously identified axes of preferential subglacial drainage. It is suggested that localized cavity opening along axes of preferential drainage may constitute the initial stage in the seasonal development of channelized subglacial drainage. It is concluded that spatial and temporal variations in glacier motion may play an active role in determining the structure and rate of development of subglacial drainage during the summer melt season.

In North America, terrestrial records of biodiversity and climate change that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 are rare. Where found, they provide insight into how the coupling of the ocean–atmosphere system is manifested in biotic and environmental records and how the biosphere responds to climate change. In 2010–2011, construction at Ziegler Reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) revealed a nearly continuous, lacustrine/wetland sedimentary sequence that preserved evidence of past plant communities between ~140 and 55 ka, including all of MIS 5. At an elevation of 2705 m, the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site also contained thousands of well-preserved bones of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and bighorn sheep. In addition, the site contained more than 26,000 bones from at least 30 species of small animals including salamanders, otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds. The combination of macro- and micro-vertebrates, invertebrates, terrestrial and aquatic plant macrofossils, a detailed pollen record, and a robust, directly dated stratigraphic framework shows that high-elevation ecosystems in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are climatically sensitive and varied dramatically throughout MIS 5.

There is limited evidence on the prospective association of time spent in activity intensity (sedentary (SED), moderate (MPA) or vigorous (VPA) physical activity) and dietary intake with adiposity indicators in young people. This study aimed to assess associations between (1) baseline objectively measured activity intensity, dietary energy density (DED) and 4-year change in adiposity and (2) 4-year change in activity intensity/DED and adiposity at follow-up. We conducted cohort analyses including 367 participants (10 years at baseline, 14 years at follow-up) with valid data for objectively measured activity (Actigraph), DED (4-d food diary), anthropometry (waist circumference (WC), %body fat (%BF), fat mass index (FMI), weight status) and covariates. Linear and logistic regression models were fit, including adjustment for DED and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Results showed that baseline DED was associated with change in WC (β for 1kJ/g difference: 0·71; 95% CI 0·26, 1·17), particularly in boys (1·26; 95% CI 0·41, 2·16 v. girls: 0·26; 95% CI −0·34, 0·87), but not with %BF, FMI or weight status. In contrast, baseline SED, MPA or VPA were not associated with any of the outcomes. Change in DED was negatively associated with FMI (β for 1kJ/g increase: −0·86; 95% CI −1·59, −0·12) and %BF (−0·86; 95% CI −1·25, −0·11) but not WC (−0·27; 95% CI −1·02, 0·48). Change in SED, MPA and VPA did not predict adiposity at follow-up. In conclusion, activity intensity was not prospectively associated with adiposity, whereas the directions of associations with DED were inconsistent. To inform public health efforts, future studies should continue to analyse longitudinal data to further understand the independent role of different energy-balance behaviours in changes in adiposity in early adolescence.

A heuristic greedy algorithm is developed for efficiently tiling spatially dense redshift surveys. In its first application to the Galaxy and MassAssembly (GAMA) redshift survey we find it rapidly improves the spatial uniformity of our data, and naturally corrects for any spatial bias introduced by the 2dF multi-object spectrograph. We make conservative predictions for the final state of the GAMA redshift survey after our final allocation of time, and can be confident that even if worse than typical weather affects our observations, all of our main survey requirements will be met.

Experimental aerial spraying to control mosquitoes was carried out in 1949 and 1950 at several stations of the Royal Canadian Air Force in northern Canada. An account of the work in 1949 has been presented (Twinn, Brown, and Hurtig, 1950). The experiments in 1949 involved the use of a larvicide, followed by a spray against the adults. Further data were required on the degree of effective control that could be obtained by applying one or two sprays against the adult mosquitoes only, in plots of reasonable size. Consequently, in 1950, arrangements were made with the R.C.A.F. to carry out airspray operations against adult mosquitoes at four stations in the Northwest as follows: Fort Nelson, B.C., 24 sq. mi. in two operations, June 6-8 and 19-20; Whitehorse, Y.T., 22 sq. mi. in two operations, June 13-15 and June 30-July 1; Watson Lake, Y.T., 12 sq. mi. June 21-22; and Norman Wells, N.W.T., 8 sq. mi. June 28-29.

This study aimed to determine the feasibility of using likelihood of inadequate therapy (LIT), a parameter calculated by using pathogen frequency and in vitro susceptibility for determination of appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy for primary bloodstream infections. Our study demonstrates that LIT may reveal differences in traditional antibiograms.

We designed and produced pure cubic zirconia (ZrO2) ceramic1 coatings by an ion beam assisted deposition (IBAD) with nanostructures comparable to the size of proteins. Our ceramic coatings exhibit high hardness and a zero contact angle with serum. In contrast to hydroxyapatite (HA), nano-engineered zirconia films possess excellent adhesion to all orthopaedic materials. Cell adhesion and proliferation experiments were performed with a bona fide mesenchymal stromal cell line (OMA-AD). Our experimental results indicate that the nano-engineered cubic zirconia is superior in supporting growth, adhesion, and proliferation. Since cell attachment is mediated by adhesive proteins such as fibronectin (FN), to elucidate why cells attach more effectively to our nanostructures, we performed a comparative analysis of adsorption energies of FN fragment using quantum mechanical calculations and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation both on smooth and nanostructured surfaces. We have found that a FN fragment adsorbs significantly stronger on the nanostructured surface than on the smooth surface2.

This paper reviews the developments in reporting of traditional embedded value and summarises some of the reasons why this is now undergoing change. It considers the purpose of an embedded value calculation and the effect of differing attitudes to risk. It comments on the recently developed European Embedded Value Principles and sets out the main areas where scope remains to apply judgement.

The paper proposes the market-consistent embedded value framework as a way forward to help provide guidance in some of these areas, in particular on the choice of discount rate and on calibration of stochastic techniques used to value embedded options and guarantees. The paper recognises that market-consistent embedded values are in relative infancy and sets out areas for possible future development.

Poultry-borne salmonellosis is the most common form of foodborne infection in Scotland for which the vehicle can be identified, yet little is known about the costs imposed on society by this disease, or the costs of preventing it. The present study identifies and values the costs of a hospital based outbreak of poultry-borne salmonellosis. Account is taken of costs falling on individuals, the health services and society as a whole. Depending on assumptions made about the value of ‘intangibles’, the cost of the outbreak is estimated to be between £200000 and £900000.