In this paper, we present and evaluate a novel Bayesian regime-switching zero-inflated multilevel Poisson (RS-ZIMLP) regression model for forecasting alcohol use dynamics. The model partitions individuals’ data into two phases, known as regimes, with: (1) a zero-inflation regime that is used to accommodate high instances of zeros (non-drinking) and (2) a multilevel Poisson regression regime in which variations in individuals’ log-transformed average rates of alcohol use are captured by means of an autoregressive process with exogenous predictors and a person-specific intercept. The times at which individuals are in each regime are unknown, but may be estimated from the data. We assume that the regime indicator follows a first-order Markov process as related to exogenous predictors of interest. The forecast performance of the proposed model was evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation study and further demonstrated using substance use and spatial covariate data from the Colorado Online Twin Study (CoTwins). Results showed that the proposed model yielded better forecast performance compared to a baseline model which predicted all cases as non-drinking and a reduced ZIMLP model without the RS structure, as indicated by higher AUC (the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) scores, and lower mean absolute errors (MAEs) and root-mean-square errors (RMSEs). The improvements in forecast performance were even more pronounced when we limited the comparisons to participants who showed at least one instance of transition to drinking.

We present an overview of the Middle Ages Galaxy Properties with Integral Field Spectroscopy (MAGPI) survey, a Large Program on the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope. MAGPI is designed to study the physical drivers of galaxy transformation at a lookback time of 3–4 Gyr, during which the dynamical, morphological, and chemical properties of galaxies are predicted to evolve significantly. The survey uses new medium-deep adaptive optics aided Multi-Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) observations of fields selected from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey, providing a wealth of publicly available ancillary multi-wavelength data. With these data, MAGPI will map the kinematic and chemical properties of stars and ionised gas for a sample of 60 massive ( ${>}7 \times 10^{10} {\mathrm{M}}_\odot$ ) central galaxies at $0.25 < z <0.35$ in a representative range of environments (isolated, groups and clusters). The spatial resolution delivered by MUSE with Ground Layer Adaptive Optics ( $0.6-0.8$ arcsec FWHM) will facilitate a direct comparison with Integral Field Spectroscopy surveys of the nearby Universe, such as SAMI and MaNGA, and at higher redshifts using adaptive optics, for example, SINS. In addition to the primary (central) galaxy sample, MAGPI will deliver resolved and unresolved spectra for as many as 150 satellite galaxies at $0.25 < z <0.35$ , as well as hundreds of emission-line sources at $z < 6$ . This paper outlines the science goals, survey design, and observing strategy of MAGPI. We also present a first look at the MAGPI data, and the theoretical framework to which MAGPI data will be compared using the current generation of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations including EAGLE, Magneticum, HORIZON-AGN, and Illustris-TNG. Our results show that cosmological hydrodynamical simulations make discrepant predictions in the spatially resolved properties of galaxies at $z\approx 0.3$ . MAGPI observations will place new constraints and allow for tangible improvements in galaxy formation theory.

Previous studies have revealed associations of meteorological factors with tuberculosis (TB) cases. However, few studies have examined their lag effects on TB cases. This study was aimed to analyse nonlinear lag effects of meteorological factors on the number of TB notifications in Hong Kong. Using a 22-year consecutive surveillance data in Hong Kong, we examined the association of monthly average temperature and relative humidity with temporal dynamics of the monthly number of TB notifications using a distributed lag nonlinear models combined with a Poisson regression. The relative risks (RRs) of TB notifications were >1.15 as monthly average temperatures were between 16.3 and 17.3 °C at lagged 13–15 months, reaching the peak risk of 1.18 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.35) when it was 16.8 °C at lagged 14 months. The RRs of TB notifications were >1.05 as relative humidities of 60.0–63.6% at lagged 9–11 months expanded to 68.0–71.0% at lagged 12–17 months, reaching the highest risk of 1.06 (95% CI 1.01–1.11) when it was 69.0% at lagged 13 months. The nonlinear and delayed effects of average temperature and relative humidity on TB epidemic were identified, which may provide a practical reference for improving the TB warning system.

Porphyromonas gingivalis has been linked to the development and progression of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and is considered to be a high-risk factor for ESCC. Currently, the commonly used methods for P. gingivalis detection are culture or DNA extraction-based, which are either time and labour intensive especially for high-throughput applications. We aimed to establish and evaluate a rapid and sensitive direct quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) protocol for the detection of P. gingivalis without DNA extraction which is suitable for large-scale epidemiological studies. Paired gingival swab samples from 192 subjects undergoing general medical examinations were analysed using two direct and one extraction-based qPCR assays for P. gingivalis. Tris-EDTA buffer-based direct qPCR (TE-direct qPCR), lysis-based direct qPCR (lysis-direct qPCR) and DNA extraction-based qPCR (kit-qPCR) were used, respectively, in 192, 132 and 60 of these samples for quantification of P. gingivalis. The sensitivity and specificity of TE-direct qPCR was 95.24% and 100% compared with lysis-direct qPCR, which was 100% and 97.30% when compared with kit-qPCR; TE-direct qPCR had an almost perfect agreement with lysis-direct qPCR (κ = 0.954) and kit-qPCR (κ = 0.965). Moreover, the assay time used for TE-direct qPCR was 1.5 h. In conclusion, the TE-direct qPCR assay is a simple and efficient method for the quantification of oral P. gingivalis and showed high sensitivity and specificity compared with routine qPCR.

We present the first images of a coordinated campaign to follow active region NOAA 12709 on 2018 May 13 as part of a joint effort between three observatories (China-Europe). The active region was close to disk center and enclosed a small pore, a tight polarity inversion line and a filament in the chromosphere. The active region was observed with the 1.5-meter GREGOR solar telescope on Tenerife (Spain) with spectropolarimetry using GRIS in the He i 10830 Å spectral range and with HiFI using two broad-band filter channels. In addition, the Lomnicky Stit Observatory (LSO, Slovakia) recorded the same active region with the new Solar Chromospheric Detector (SCD) in spectroscopic mode at Hα 6562 Å. The third ground-based telescope was located at the Fuxian Solar Observatory (China), where the active region was observed with the 1-meter New Vacuum Solar Telescope (NVST), using the Multi-Channel High Resolution Imaging System at Hα 6562 Å. Overlapping images of the active region from all three telescopes will be shown as well as preliminary Doppler line-of-sight (LOS) velocities. The potential of such observations are discussed.

We present the first data release of the SkyMapper Southern Survey, a hemispheric survey carried out with the SkyMapper Telescope at Siding Spring Observatory in Australia. Here, we present the survey strategy, data processing, catalogue construction, and database schema. The first data release dataset includes over 66 000 images from the Shallow Survey component, covering an area of 17 200 deg2 in all six SkyMapper passbands uvgriz, while the full area covered by any passband exceeds 20 000 deg2. The catalogues contain over 285 million unique astrophysical objects, complete to roughly 18 mag in all bands. We compare our griz point-source photometry with Pan-STARRS1 first data release and note an RMS scatter of 2%. The internal reproducibility of SkyMapper photometry is on the order of 1%. Astrometric precision is better than 0.2 arcsec based on comparison with Gaia first data release. We describe the end-user database, through which data are presented to the world community, and provide some illustrative science queries.

The discovery of the first electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational wave signal has generated follow-up observations by over 50 facilities world-wide, ushering in the new era of multi-messenger astronomy. In this paper, we present follow-up observations of the gravitational wave event GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterpart SSS17a/DLT17ck (IAU label AT2017gfo) by 14 Australian telescopes and partner observatories as part of Australian-based and Australian-led research programs. We report early- to late-time multi-wavelength observations, including optical imaging and spectroscopy, mid-infrared imaging, radio imaging, and searches for fast radio bursts. Our optical spectra reveal that the transient source emission cooled from approximately 6 400 K to 2 100 K over a 7-d period and produced no significant optical emission lines. The spectral profiles, cooling rate, and photometric light curves are consistent with the expected outburst and subsequent processes of a binary neutron star merger. Star formation in the host galaxy probably ceased at least a Gyr ago, although there is evidence for a galaxy merger. Binary pulsars with short (100 Myr) decay times are therefore unlikely progenitors, but pulsars like PSR B1534+12 with its 2.7 Gyr coalescence time could produce such a merger. The displacement (~2.2 kpc) of the binary star system from the centre of the main galaxy is not unusual for stars in the host galaxy or stars originating in the merging galaxy, and therefore any constraints on the kick velocity imparted to the progenitor are poor.

The SkyMapper Transient survey (SMT) is exploring variability in the southern sky by performing (a) a rolling search to discover and study supernovæ, and (b) a Target of Opportunity programme that uses the robotic SkyMapper Telescope at Siding Spring Observatory. The supernova survey is obtaining a non-targeted sample of Type Ia supernovæ (SNe Ia) at low redshifts, z < 0.1, and studying other interesting transients found with the search strategy. We have a Target of Opportunity programme with an automatic response mechanism to search for optical counterparts to gravitational-wave and fast radio-burst events; it benefits from SkyMapper’s large field of view of 5.7 sq. deg. and a rapid data reduction pipeline.

We present first results of the SMT survey. The SMT pipeline can process and obtain potential candidates within 12 hours of observation. It disentangles real transients from processing artefacts using a machine-learning algorithm. To date, SMT has discovered over 60 spectroscopically confirmed supernovæ, several peculiar objects, and over 40 SNe Ia including one (SNIa 2016hhd) which was found within the first few days of explosion. We have also participated in searches for optical counterparts of gravitational waves, fast radio bursts and other transients, and have published observations of the optical counterpart of the gravitational-wave event GW170817. We also participate in coordinated observations with the Deeper Wider Faster programme, and the Kepler K2 cosmology project.

The SkyMapper 1.3 m telescope at Siding Spring Observatory has now begun regular operations. Alongside the Southern Sky Survey, a comprehensive digital survey of the entire southern sky, SkyMapper will carry out a search for supernovae and other transients. The search strategy, covering a total footprint area of ~2 000 deg2 with a cadence of ⩽5 d, is optimised for discovery and follow-up of low-redshift type Ia supernovae to constrain cosmic expansion and peculiar velocities. We describe the search operations and infrastructure, including a parallelised software pipeline to discover variable objects in difference imaging; simulations of the performance of the survey over its lifetime; public access to discovered transients; and some first results from the Science Verification data.

Recently, countries at high latitudes have updated their vitamin D recommendations to ensure adequate intake for the musculoskeletal health of their respective populations. In 2010, the dietary guidelines for vitamin D for Canadians and Americans aged 1–70 years increased from 5 μg/d to 15 μg/d, whereas in 2016 for citizens of the UK aged ≥4 years 10 μg/d is recommended. The vitamin D status of Canadian children following the revised dietary guidelines is unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the prevalence and determinants of vitamin D deficiency and sufficiency among Canadian children. For this study, we assumed serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations <30 nmol/l as ‘deficient’ and ≥50nmol/l as ‘sufficient’. Data from children aged 3–18 years (n 2270) who participated in the 2012/2013 Canadian Health Measures Survey were analysed. Of all children, 5·6 % were vitamin D deficient and 71 % were vitamin D sufficient. Children who consumed vitamin D-fortified milk daily (77 %) were more likely to be sufficient than those who consumed it less frequently (OR 2·7; 95 % CI 1·4, 5·0). The 9 % of children who reported taking vitamin D-containing supplements in the previous month had higher 25(OH)D concentrations (OR 6·9 nmol/l; 95 % CI 1·1, 12·7 nmol/l) relative to those who did not. Children who were older, obese, of non-white ethnicity and from low-income households were less likely to be vitamin D sufficient. To improve vitamin D status, consumption of vitamin D-rich foods should be promoted, and fortification of more food items or formal recommendations for vitamin D supplementation should be considered.

The first observations by a worldwide network of advanced interferometric gravitational wave detectors offer a unique opportunity for the astronomical community. At design sensitivity, these facilities will be able to detect coalescing binary neutron stars to distances approaching 400 Mpc, and neutron star–black hole systems to 1 Gpc. Both of these sources are associated with gamma-ray bursts which are known to emit across the entire electromagnetic spectrum. Gravitational wave detections provide the opportunity for ‘multi-messenger’ observations, combining gravitational wave with electromagnetic, cosmic ray, or neutrino observations. This review provides an overview of how Australian astronomical facilities and collaborations with the gravitational wave community can contribute to this new era of discovery, via contemporaneous follow-up observations from the radio to the optical and high energy. We discuss some of the frontier discoveries that will be made possible when this new window to the Universe is opened.

We determined the prevalence and seasonality of infections by Fasciola of goats and bovine species (cattle and water buffalo) in Hubei and Anhui provinces of China. Faecal samples were collected at 2- to 3-month intervals from 200 goats in Hubei province and from 152 bovine species in Anhui province. All faecal samples were examined for the presence of parasites. We determined the nucleotide sequences of the first and second internal transcribed spacers (ITS-1 and ITS-2) of the nuclear ribosomal DNA (rDNA) of 39 Fasciola worms from Anhui province. The prevalence of Fasciola infection in goats ranged between 3.5 and 37.0%, with mean eggs per gram (EPG) ranging between 29.0 and 166.0. Prevalence and EPG exhibited downward trends over time with significant differences. The prevalence of Fasciola infection in cattle ranged between 13.3 and 46.2% (mean EPG, 36.4–100.0), and that of water buffalo ranged between 10.3 and 35.4% (mean EPG, 25.0–89.6), with a higher prevalence of infection and EPG from June to October compared with December to March. Analysis of ITS-1 and ITS-2 sequences revealed that F. hepatica and F. gigantica were present in all bovine species of Anhui province and that F. gigantica mainly infected water buffalo. This is the first demonstration of Fasciola infection in Hubei province and detection of F. hepatica and F. gigantica in Anhui province. The present study of Hubei province shows that mass treatment of livestock with closantel sodium injections in April and August/September controlled Fasciola infection effectively.

The brown planthopper Nilaparvata lugens is a serious phloem-feeding pest of rice in China. The current study focuses on a saccharopine dehydrogenase (SDH) that catalyzes the penultimate reaction in biosynthesis of the amino acid lysine (Lys), which plays a role in insect growth and carnitine production (as a substrate). The protein, provisionally designated as NlylsSDH [a SDH derived from yeast-like symbiont (YLS) in N. lugens], had a higher transcript level in abdomens, compared with heads, wings, legs and thoraces, which agrees with YLS distribution in N. lugens. Ingestion of Nlylssdh targeted double-stranded RNA (dsNlylssdh) for 5, 10 and 15 days decreased the mRNA abundance in the hoppers by 47, 70 and 31%, respectively, comparing with those ingesting normal or dsegfp diets. Nlylssdh knockdown slightly decreased the body weights, significantly delayed the development of females, and killed approximately 30% of the nymphs. Moreover, some surviving adults showed two apparent phenotypic defects: wing deformation and nymphal cuticles remained on tips of the legs and abdomens. The brachypterours/macropterours and sex ratios (female/male) of the adults on the dsRNA diet were lowered compared with the adults on diets without dsRNA. These results suggest that Nlylssdh encodes a functional SDH protein. The adverse effect of Nlylssdh knockdown on N. lugens implies the importance of Lys in hopper development. This study provides a proof of concept example that Nlylssdh could serve as a possible dsRNA-based pesticide for planthopper control.

Mycoplasma infections are most frequently associated with disease in the urogenital or respiratory tracts and, in most cases, mycoplasmas infect the host persistently. In HIV-infected individuals the prevalence and role of genital mycoplasmas has not been well studied. To investigate the six species of Mycoplasma and the risk factors for infection in Jiangsu province, first-void urine and venous blood samples were collected and epidemiological questionnaires were administered after informed consent. A total of 1541 HIV/AIDS patients were recruited in this study. The overall infection rates of six Mycoplasma species were: Ureaplasma urealyticum (26·7%), Mycoplasma hominis (25·3%), M. fermentans (5·1%), M. genitalium (20·1%), M. penetrans (1·6%) and M. pirum (15·4%). The Mycoplasma infection rate in the unmarried group was lower than that of the married, divorced and widowed groups [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1·432, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·077–1·904, P < 0·05]. The patients who refused highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) had a much higher risk of Mucoplasma infection (aOR 1·357, 95% CI 1·097–1·679, P < 0·05). Otherwise, a high CD4+ T cell count was a protective factor against Mycoplasma infection (aOR 0·576, 95% CI 0·460–0·719, P < 0·05). Further research will be required to confirm a causal relationship and to identify risk factors for Mycoplasma infection in HIV/AIDS populations.

The first human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus was reported in Shanghai, China in March 2013. An additional 32 cases of human H7N9 infection were identified in the following months from March to April 2013 in Shanghai. Here we conducted a case-control study of the patients with H7N9 infection (n = 25) using controls matched by age, sex, and residence to determine risk factors for H7N9 infection. Our findings suggest that chronic disease and frequency of visiting a live poultry market (>10 times, or 1–9 times during the 2 weeks before illness onset) were likely to be significantly associated with H7N9 infection, with the odds ratios being 4·07 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·32–12·56], 10·61 (95% CI 1·85–60·74), and 3·76 (95% CI 1·31–10·79), respectively. Effective strategies for live poultry market control should be reinforced and ongoing education of the public is warranted to promote behavioural changes that can help to eliminate direct or indirect contact with influenza A(H7N9) virus.

Stars are tidally disrupted and accreted when they approach massive black holes (MBHs) closely, producing a flare of electromagnetic radiation. The majority of the (approximately two dozen) tidal disruption events (TDEs) identified so far have been discovered by their luminous, transient X-ray emission. Once TDEs are detected in much larger numbers, in future dedicated transient surveys, a wealth of new applications will become possible. Here, we present the proposed Einstein Probe mission, which is a dedicated time-domain soft X-ray all-sky monitor aiming at detecting X-ray transients including TDEs in large numbers. The mission consists of a wide-field micro-pore Lobster-eye imager (60° × 60°), and is designed to carry out an all-sky transient survey at energies of 0.5-4 keV. It will also carry a more sensitive telescope for X-ray follow-ups, and will be capable of issuing public transient alerts rapidly. Einstein Probe is expected to revolutionise the field of TDE research by detecting several tens to hundreds of events per year from the early phase of flares, many with long-term, well sampled lightcurves.

The first experimental measurements of intense (${\sim }7\times 10^{19}~ {\rm W}~ {\rm cm}^{-2}$) laser-driven terahertz (THz) radiation from a solid target which is preheated by an intense pulse of laser-accelerated protons is reported. The total energy of the THz radiation is found to decrease by approximately a factor of 2 compared to a cold target reference. This is attributed to an increase in the scale length of the preformed plasma, driven by proton heating, at the front surface of the target, where the THz radiation is generated. The results show the importance of controlling the preplasma scale length for THz production.

The Beijing/W lineage strains are the major prevalent strains in China. The prevalence, mortality and drug-resistant rates of tuberculosis in Xinjiang, Northwestern China are higher than in other parts of the country. Our previous study results showed that the dominant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) were ‘Beijing/W lineage’ MTB in Xinjiang; those strains had no significant correlation with drug resistance. We investigated whether the prevalence of ‘Beijing/W lineage’ sublineage strains was associated with drug resistance. We collected 478 sputum specimens from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis. Beijing/W strains and their sublineages were identified by distinguishing five specific large sequence polymorphisms, using polymerase chain reaction. All strains were subjected to a drug susceptibility test using the proportion method on Löwenstein–Jensen culture medium. In total, 379 clinical isolates of MTB were isolated and identified, 57·26% of these isolates were identified as Beijing/W strains, of which 11·06% isolates were in sublineage 105, 14·74% isolates in sublineage 207, 69·59% isolates in sublineage 181, and 4·61% isolates in sublineage 150. None of the isolates was in sublineage 142. Our data showed there were four sublineages of Beijing/W isolates in Xinjiang province, China. However, there were no correlations between drug resistance and the sublineages of Beijing/W strains.

Carefully timed tandem microbubbles have been shown to produce directional and targeted membrane poration of individual cells in microfluidic systems, which could be of use in ultrasound-mediated drug and gene delivery. This study aims at contributing to the understanding of the mechanisms at play in such an interaction. The dynamics of single and tandem microbubbles between two parallel plates is studied numerically and analytically. Comparisons are then made between the numerical results and the available experimental results. Numerically, assuming a potential flow, a three-dimensional boundary element method (BEM) is used to describe complex bubble deformations, jet formation, and bubble splitting. Analytically, compressibility and viscous boundary layer effects along the channel walls, neglected in the BEM model, are considered while shape of the bubble is not considered. Comparisons show that energy losses modify the bubble dynamics when the two approaches use identical initial conditions. The initial conditions in the boundary element method can be adjusted to recover the bubble period and maximum bubble volume when in an infinite medium. Using the same conditions enables the method to recover the full dynamics of single and tandem bubbles, including large deformations and fast re-entering jet formation. This method can be used as a design tool for future tandem-bubble sonoporation experiments.