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Within the international politics of the Caribbean Basin attention is only rarely paid to the position of Belize. This neglect is the more remarkable since Belize epitomizes — more precisely than any other territory of the region — the characteristic geopolitical problem of the Caribbean caught, as it were, uneasily between the United States, Latin America and Europe. Yet, despite being threatened by the Guatemalan claim to sovereignty over its territory, which delayed its independence until 1981, Belize has skillfully taken advantage of its British colonial past to carve out for itself a distinctive geopolitical space in Central America and the Caribbean. This has allowed it not only to remain relatively undisturbed by the conflicts which have riven the other states of the Central American isthmus, but also to display a commitment to democratic change strong enough to sustain the electoral defeat — in December 1984 — of a regime which had held power in the country for more than thirty years, as well as the defeat of its successor — in September 1989 — after just one term in office.

The Supposed emergence of a New World Order has quickly become one of the cliches of the 1990s. First enunciated by President Bush in the context of US attempts to mobilize international support for the Gulf War, the phrase has already been defined and redefined in countless journalistic analyses of recent events in Eastern Europe, the Gulf itself and lately of course the Soviet Union. This is not the place to add directly to that debate. It is obvious that the world order of the 1990s is very different from the post-1945 order. Briefly expressed, it is constituted by the interplay between, on the one hand, a new but still unequal diffusion of power between the core states of the world (the United States, the European Community [EC], and Japan) and, on the other, a new concentration of power in the hands of international capital.

Understanding the long-term ecological dynamics of boreal forests is essential for assessment of the possible responses and feedbacks of forest ecosystems to climate change. New data on past forest dynamics and peatland development were obtained from a peat sequence in the southern Valdai Hills (European Russia) based on pollen, plant macrofossil, micro-charcoal, peat humification, and testate amoeba analyses. The results demonstrate a dominance of broadleaved forests in the study area from 7000–4000 cal yr BP. Picea was initially a minor component of this forest but increased in cover rapidly with climatic cooling beginning at 4000 cal yr BP, becoming the dominant species. Broadleaved species persisted until 900 cal yr BP, with evidence for intensified felling and forest management over recent centuries. Over the last four hundred years there is evidence for widespread paludification and the establishment of Picea-Sphagnum forests. These data demonstrate how modern wet woodlands have been shaped by a combination of climatic and anthropogenic factors over several millennia. The results also demonstrate the value of a multiproxy approach in understanding long-term forest ecology.

It has been shown recently that ice streams are fed by fast-flowing tributaries occupying well-defined subglacial troughs and with shared source areas. Here, ice-penetrating radio-echo sounding (RES) data are analyzed in conjunction with ice surface velocities derived from interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), to determine the englacial properties of tributaries feeding Ice Stream D, West Antarctica. All of Ice Stream D’s tributaries are coincident with “buckled” internal ice-sheet layers, most probably deformed by the processes responsible for enhanced ice flow. Between the tributaries well-preserved internal layers occur. The data reveal that no lateral migration of the ice-stream tributaries has occurred recently. This is consistent with thermomechanical ice-flow modelling, which indicates that the flow of Ice Stream D is controlled by a subglacial trough and is unaffected by changes to the flow of neighbouring Ice Stream C.

The distribution of basal traction on a transect along Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, is estimated by inverting observed surface velocities using a control method and a simple numerical stream-flow model. This model calculates the horizontal flow along a transect, based on the assumptions that the horizontal flow is independent of ice depth and that the driving stresses are balanced by resistive forces at the glacier bed and margin and by gradients in longitudinal stress. Basal traction is assumed to be linearly related to the basal velocity. For the lateral shear traction a parameterization based on an inversion of Glen’s flow law is used. The application of the control method allows us to calculate the set of model parameters (e.g. the basal friction coefficient) that gives the best fit between modelled andobserved surface velocities. The model is used to investigate the stress regime of Pine Island Glacier, in particular to estimate the importance of basal, lateral and longitudinal stresses relative to each other. In the flat region just behind the grounding line, basal drag, lateral drag and the longitudinal stress gradient are the same order of magnitude. In the steep region up-glacier from the grounding line, the driving stresses are highest and balanced predominantly by basal resistive stresses. Further upstream, in the trunk of the glacier, lateral and basal drag predominate.

This work attempts to explain the fan-like landform assemblages observed in satellite images of the area covered by the former Scandinavian ice sheet (SIS). These assemblages have been interpreted as evidence of large ice streams within the SIS. If this interpretation is correct, then it calls into doubt current theories on the formation of ice streams. These theories regard soft sediment and topographic troughs as being the key determinants of ice-stream location. Neither can be used to explain the existence of ice streams on the flat, hard-rock area of the Baltic Shield. Initial results from a three-dimensional, thermomechanical ice-sheet model indicate that interactions between ice flow, form and temperature can create patterns similar to those mentioned above. The model uses a realistic, 20 km resolution gridded topography and a simple parameterization of accumulation and ablation. It produces patterns of maximum ice-sheet extent, which are similar to those reconstructed from the area’s glacial geomorphology. Flow in the maximum, equilibrium ice sheet is dominated by wedges of warm, low-viscosity, fast-flowing ice. These are separated by areas of cold, slow-flowing ice. This patterning appears to develop spontaneously as the modelled ice sheet grows.

A technique proposed by Hooke and Iverson (1995) to identify deformed subglacial sediments is reviewed and tested, based on two main objectives. First, an investigation of whether the fractal dimension can distinguish between non-deformed and deformed facies; for which we compare supraglacial and subglacial facies explicitly. Second, an evaluation of whether the fractal dimension can be used as a diagnostic criteria to discriminate between different styles and degrees of basal deformation. This is tested using a range of sediments from the deformation continuum suggested by Hart and Boulton (1991b). Sixteen subglacial samples were selected from Quaternary sites in England and three supraglacial samples from the modern Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland. The mean fractal dimension for the subglacial diamicton matrix facies was 2.92, similar to findings of 2.90 by Hooke and Iverson (1995) for their basal tills. The supraglacial facies displayed a mean fractal dimension of 2.83, which is unusually high for facies which are assumed to be undeformed. A Mann—Whitney U test showed that fractal dimensions of supraglacial and subglacial diamicton matrix facies were not significantly different. No significant difference was found between the fractal dimensions of the different tectonic facies within the subglacial group. It may be impossible to separate the subglacial and supraglacial facies because of complex debris paths within the glacier. Grain fracture or parent lithology may affect the particle-size distribution of subglacial facies.

A series of ice-sheet-model intercomparison exercises have been organized as part of EISMINT. One such set of experiments investigated the implications of thermomechanical coupling on the flow of ice sheets with idealized geometry The results of these experiments are discussed by Payne and others (in press). They indicate that local concentrations of ice flow may develop as a consequence of interactions between ice flow, temperature and viscosity The nature of the intercomparison exercise meant that only a limited number of experiments could be performed by the ten contributing groups. Many of the implications arising from the results could not therefore be investigated. This paper focuses on four. They are the initiation of the patterning, its reversibility the influence of the relationship between ice temperature and viscosity and dependence on numerical time-step and horizontal grid size.

Spatially extensive internal layers have been traced in airborne radio-echo sounding (RES) data collected over Greenland during the late 1990s. By linking internal layers within individual flight-lines at crossover points, it is possible to identify spatially continuous layers that are interpreted as isochronous surfaces. Several of the survey lines pass over the GRIP core site, and this allows us to use the published GRIP age–depth relationship to accurately date these surfaces. Two layers, with ages of 3891 and 6956 years BP, have been traced over a large part of North Greenland. Accurately dated and spatially continuous isochrones are valuable for both assimilation within, and verification of, numerical models. For example, comparison of isochronous surfaces from a numerical simulation with those layers observed in RES data can be used to inform the choice of parameters (e.g. rheology) and climate history used to force a numerical model. To demonstrate the potential of the RES data, two layers for North Greenland were used to determine palaeo-accumulation rates. The inversion from layer depth to accumulation rate requires a three-dimensional velocity field. This velocity field is constructed by combining a two-dimensional balance-velocity field with an assumed vertical structure for the horizontal velocity. The isochronous-layer derived accumulation rates were compared with the Bales and others (2001) rates. A larger east–west gradient was found across the central ice divide for the derived accumulation rate, suggesting a trend in the Holocene accumulation rates for this region. The layers were also compared with isochronous surfaces derived from simulations of a three-dimensional thermodynamic ice-sheet model. Using the isochronous-layer derived accumulation rates to force the model improved the match between modelled and observed layers.

Simulations of grounding-line migration in ice-sheet models using a fixed grid have been shown to exhibit poor convergence at achievable resolutions. We present a series of ‘shelfy-stream’ flowline model experiments using an idealized set-up. We assess the performance of a range of grounding-line parameterizations (GLPs) over a large input space by varying bedrock gradient, rate factor, basal drag coefficient and net accumulation. The relative performance of GLPs is similar to Gladstone and others (2010a) except at low basal drag, in which case the grounding-line errors are very small for all GLPs. We find that grounding-line errors are far more sensitive to basal drag than to the other inputs or to choice of GLP. We then quantify grounding-line errors as a function of resolution while varying basal drag and channel width (using a parameterization to represent buttressing). Reducing either basal drag or channel width reduces the errors associated with the grounding line. Our results suggest that a structured fixed-grid shelfy-stream ice-sheet model would need to run at a horizontal resolution of ~1–2km to accurately simulate grounding-line positions of marine ice-sheet outlet glaciers such as Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica.

Understanding how ice sheets responded to past climate change is fundamental to forecasting how they will respond in the future. Numerical models calculating the evolution of ice sheets depend upon accumulation data, which are principally available from ice cores. Here, we calculate past rates of ice accumulation using internal layering. The englacial structure of the East Antarctic ice divide at ridge B is extracted from airborne ice-penetrating radar. The isochronous surfaces are dated at their intersection with the Vostok ice-core site, where the depth–age relationship is known. The dated isochrons are used as input to a one-dimensional ice-flow model to investigate the spatial accumulation distribution. The calculations show that ice-accumulation rates generally increase from Vostok lake towards ridge B. The western flank of the ice divide experiences markedly more accumulation than in the east. Further, ice accumulation increases northwards along the ice divide. The results also show the variability of accumulation in time and space around the ridge B ice divide over the last 124 000 years.

Vestari-Hagafellsjökull is a surge-type outlet glacier from the Langjökull ice cap, Iceland. Intensive hydrological investigations were carried out during non-surge conditions in the summers of 1999 and 2000, and 14 boreholes were drilled using pressurized hot water over an area 800 m from the margin and approximately 5000 m2 in size, where ice thickness ranged from 60 to 70 m. Initial investigations showed that a large fraction of the boreholes drilled to the bed did not drain and were assumed not to connect to the subglacial drainage system. Subsequently, we investigated the hypothesis that boreholes which remain full may do so as a consequence of a balance between englacial inflow and basal drainage rather than the standard assumption that such boreholes are simply unconnected. In testing this hypothesis, we developed a new technique for measuring water motion within the borehole by monitoring the passage of a saline solution down the borehole’s water column. The technique allows rates of motion to be established, as well as allowing the quantification of net addition and loss of water from the borehole. Observations based on the motion of saline plumes within the boreholes lead us to the conclusion that some boreholes do indeed remain full as a consequence of a balance between englacial inflow and subglacial drainage. The abrupt dilution that occurs at the top of these boreholes suggests inflow from a near-surface englacial water source, while the descent of the saline plumes implies that water is being lost at the base to the subglacial system. The system appears to be driven by excess water head in the boreholes over flotation and implies that the borehole/bedrock interface can be ‘leaky’.

This paper discusses results from the second phase of the European Ice Sheet Modelling Initiative (EISMINT). It reports the intercomparison of ten operational ice-sheet models and uses a series of experiments to examine the implications of thermomechanical coupling for model behaviour. A schematic, circular ice sheet is used in the work which investigates both steady states and the response to stepped changes in climate. The major finding is that the radial symmetry implied in the experimental design can, under certain circumstances, break down with the formation of distinct, regularly spaced spokes of cold ice which extended from the interior of the ice sheet outward to the surrounding zone of basal melt. These features also manifest themselves in the thickness and velocity distributions predicted by the models. They appear to be a common feature to all of the models which took part in the intercomparison, and may stem from interactions between ice temperature, flow and surface form. The exact nature of these features varies between models, and their existence appears to be controlled by the overall thermal regime of the ice sheet. A second result is that there is considerable agreement between the models in their predictions of global-scale response to imposed climate change.

A correlation has been found between strong molecular hydrogen emission and the morphological type of a planetary nebula. Those with an equatorial toroid and bipolar extensions have H2 1−0 S(1) stronger than Brackett γ. H2 maps of several objects, and NGC 2346 in particular, are consistent with a fast stellar wind interacting with an anisotropic medium.

A wide range of models have been proposed to account for low-frequency (≲ 1 GHz) variability in cosmologically-distant radio sources. To address these models we (Payne et al. 1982) are monitoring the 0.3–1.4 GHz spectra of such sources. Results from three years of monitoring indicate that two distinct types of low-frequency variables may exist.

A new astronomical system is nearing completion at U.N.S.W. in which a charge coupled device (CCD) array detector is matched to a Schmidt telescope, with the observations completely analyzed on-line. We have modified a Baker-Nunn satellite tracking camera, with its excellent 0.5m, f/1 super-Schmidt optics, converting it into a computer-controlled equatorially-mounted astronomical telescope. The telescope is expected to be located at Siding Spring Observatory in north-western New South Wales.

We construct initial conditions for an ice flow model of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). GrIS has been losing mass at an increasing rate over the past two decades, and a significant proportion of this loss is due to dynamic thinning of narrow outlet glaciers. We solve an inverse problem to estimate poorly known basal and englacial parameters given observed geometry and surface velocities. A weighted cost function, resolved to 4 km in the interior of the ice sheet and 1 km in regions of fast-flowing ice at the margin, is minimized to find two-dimensional fields for a stiffness factor, which is a coefficient of the effective viscosity, and basal traction coefficient. Using these fields, we run the model under present-day climate to damp large-amplitude, short-wavelength fluctuations in the flux divergence. The time-dependent model uses an adaptive mesh with resolution ranging from 8 km of the base grid to 500 m in areas of fast-flowing ice to capture the behaviour of the main outlet glaciers. The ice discharge calculated from the initial conditions for GrIS and individual glaciers compares well with values calculated from observations.

Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models able to simulate grounding-line migration. We present results of an intercomparison experiment for plan-view marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no buttressing effects from lateral drag). Perturbation experiments specifying spatial variation in basal sliding parameters permitted the evolution of curved grounding lines, generating buttressing effects. The experiments showed regions of compression and extensional flow across the grounding line, thereby invalidating the boundary layer theory. Steady-state grounding-line positions were found to be dependent on the level of physical model approximation. Resolving grounding lines requires inclusion of membrane stresses, a sufficiently small grid size (<500 m), or subgrid interpolation of the grounding line. The latter still requires nominal grid sizes of <5 km. For larger grid spacings, appropriate parameterizations for ice flux may be imposed at the grounding line, but the short-time transient behaviour is then incorrect and different from models that do not incorporate grounding-line parameterizations. The numerical error associated with predicting grounding-line motion can be reduced significantly below the errors associated with parameter ignorance and uncertainties in future scenarios.

Various spatial discretizations for the ice sheet are compared for accuracy against analytical solutions in one and two dimensions. The computational efficiency of various iterated and non-iterated marching schemes is compared.

The stability properties of different marching schemes, with and without iterations on the non-linear equations, are compared. Newton–Raphson techniques permit the largest time steps. A new technique, which is based on the fact that the dynamics of unstable iterated maps contain information about where the unstable root lies, is shown to improve substantially the performance of Picard iteration at a negligible computational cost.