Incentivized methods for eliciting subjective probabilities in economic experiments present the subject with risky choices that encourage truthful reporting. We discuss the most prominent elicitation methods and their underlying assumptions, provide theoretical comparisons and give a new justification for the quadratic scoring rule. On the empirical side, we survey the performance of these elicitation methods in actual experiments, considering also practical issues of implementation such as order effects, hedging, and different ways of presenting probabilities and payment schemes to experimental subjects. We end with a discussion of the trade-offs involved in using incentives for belief elicitation and some guidelines for implementation.

Spatial analysis and disease mapping have the potential to enhance understanding of tuberculosis (TB) dynamics, whose spatial dynamics may be complicated by the mix of short and long-range transmission and long latency periods. TB notifications in Nam Dinh Province for individuals aged 15 and older from 2013 to 2022 were analyzed with a variety of spatio-temporal methods. The study commenced with an analysis of spatial autocorrelation to identify clustering patterns, followed by the evaluation of several candidate Bayesian spatio-temporal models. These models varied from simple assessments of spatial heterogeneity to more complex configurations incorporating covariates and interactions. The findings highlighted a peak in the TB notification rate in 2017, with 98 cases per 100,000 population, followed by a sharp decline in 2021. Significant spatial autocorrelation at the commune level was detected over most of the 10-year period. The Bayesian model that best balanced goodness-of-fit and complexity indicated that TB trends were associated with poverty: each percentage point increase in the proportion of poor households was associated with a 1.3% increase in TB notifications, emphasizing a significant socioeconomic factor in TB transmission dynamics. The integration of local socioeconomic data with spatio-temporal analysis could further enhance our understanding of TB epidemiology.

Stewardship processes were compared across 123 hospitals that differed on a risk-adjusted post-discharge antibiotic use metric. Low-performing hospitals were less likely than high-performing hospitals to report routine interactions between their stewardship physician and pharmacist(s) (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.03–0.55) and to have local antibiotic-prescribing guidelines (OR 0.21, 95% CI 0.05–0.93)

The Flexible Farrington Algorithm (FFA) is widely used to detect infectious disease outbreaks at national/regional levels on a weekly basis. The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 alongside the speed at which diagnostic and public health interventions were introduced made the FFA of limited use. We describe how the methodology was adapted to provide a daily alert system to support local health protection teams (HPTs) working in the 316 English lower-tier local authorities. To minimize the impact of a rapidly changing epidemiological situation, the FFA was altered to use 8 weeks of data. The adapted algorithm was based on reported positive counts using total tests as an offset. Performance was assessed using the root mean square error (RMSE) over a period. Graphical reports were sent to local teams enabling targeted public health action. From 1 July 2020, results were routinely reported. Adaptions accommodated the impact on reporting because of changes in diagnostic strategy (introduction of lateral flow devices). RMSE values were relatively small compared to observed counts, increased during periods of increased reporting, and were relatively higher in the northern and western areas of the country. The exceedance reports were well received. This presentation should be considered as a successful proof-of-concept.

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a leading cause of heart failure and the most common indication for a heart transplant. Guidelines are regularly based on studies of adults and applied to the young. Children and adolescents diagnosed with DCM face different lifestyle challenges from individuals diagnosed in adulthood that include medical trauma and are influenced by maturity levels and confidence with advocacy to adults.

Using a UK patient-scientist’s perspective, we reviewed the age-specific challenges faced by the young with DCM, evaluated current guidelines and evidence, and identified areas requiring further recommendations and research. We highlight the importance of (i) the transition clinic from paediatric to adult services, (ii) repeated signposting to mental health services, (iii) standardised guidance on physical activity, (iv) caution surrounding alcohol and smoking, (v) the dangers of illegal drugs, and (vi) reproductive options and health.

Further research is needed to address the many uncertainties in these areas with respect to young age, particularly for physical activity, and such guidance would be welcomed by the young with DCM who must come to terms with being different and more limited amongst healthy peers.

Polygenic scores (PGSs) have garnered increasing attention in the clinical sciences due to their robust prediction signals for psychopathology, including externalizing (EXT) behaviors. However, studies leveraging PGSs have rarely accounted for the phenotypic and developmental heterogeneity in EXT outcomes. We used the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (analytic N = 4,416), spanning ages 13 to 41, to examine associations between EXT PGSs and trajectories of antisocial behaviors (ASB) and substance use behaviors (SUB) identified via growth mixture modeling. Four trajectories of ASB were identified: High Decline (3.6% of the sample), Moderate (18.9%), Adolescence-Peaked (10.6%), and Low (67%), while three were identified for SUB: High Use (35.2%), Typical Use (41.7%), and Low Use (23%). EXT PGSs were consistently associated with persistent trajectories of ASB and SUB (High Decline and High Use, respectively), relative to comparison groups. EXT PGSs were also associated with the Low Use trajectory of SUB, relative to the comparison group. Results suggest PGSs may be sensitive to developmental typologies of EXT, where PGSs are more strongly predictive of chronicity in addition to (or possibly rather than) absolute severity.

We present the first results from a new backend on the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder, the Commensal Realtime ASKAP Fast Transient COherent (CRACO) upgrade. CRACO records millisecond time resolution visibility data, and searches for dispersed fast transient signals including fast radio bursts (FRB), pulsars, and ultra-long period objects (ULPO). With the visibility data, CRACO can localise the transient events to arcsecond-level precision after the detection. Here, we describe the CRACO system and report the result from a sky survey carried out by CRACO at 110-ms resolution during its commissioning phase. During the survey, CRACO detected two FRBs (including one discovered solely with CRACO, FRB 20231027A), reported more precise localisations for four pulsars, discovered two new RRATs, and detected one known ULPO, GPM J1839 $-$10, through its sub-pulse structure. We present a sensitivity calibration of CRACO, finding that it achieves the expected sensitivity of 11.6 Jy ms to bursts of 110 ms duration or less. CRACO is currently running at a 13.8 ms time resolution and aims at a 1.7 ms time resolution before the end of 2024. The planned CRACO has an expected sensitivity of 1.5 Jy ms to bursts of 1.7 ms duration or less and can detect $10\times$ more FRBs than the current CRAFT incoherent sum system (i.e. 0.5 $-$2 localised FRBs per day), enabling us to better constrain the models for FRBs and use them as cosmological probes.

North Carolina growers have long struggled to control Italian ryegrass, and recent research has confirmed that some Italian ryegrass biotypes have become resistant to nicosulfuron, glyphosate, clethodim, and paraquat. Integrating alternative management strategies is crucial to effectively control such biotypes. The objectives of this study were to evaluate Italian ryegrass control with cover crops and fall-applied residual herbicides and investigate cover crop injury from residual herbicides. This study was conducted during the fall/winter of 2021–22 in Salisbury, NC, and fall/winter of 2021–22 and 2022–23 in Clayton, NC. The study was designed as a 3 × 5 split-plot in which the main plot consisted of three cover crop treatments (no-cover, cereal rye at 80 kg ha−1, and crimson clover at 18 kg ha−1), and the subplots consisted of five residual herbicide treatments (S-metolachlor, flumioxazin, metribuzin, pyroxasulfone, and nontreated). In the 2021–22 season at Clayton, metribuzin injured cereal rye and crimson clover 65% and 55%, respectively. However, metribuzin injured both cover crops ≤6% in 2022–23. Flumioxazin resulted in unacceptable crimson clover injury of 50% and 38% in 2021–22 and 2022–23 in Clayton and 40% in Salisbury, respectively. Without preemergence herbicides, cereal rye controlled Italian ryegrass by 85% and 61% at 24 wk after planting in 2021–22 and 2022–23 in Clayton and 82% in Salisbury, respectively. In 2021–22, Italian ryegrass seed production was lowest in cereal rye plots at both locations, except when it was treated with metribuzin. For example, in Salisbury, cereal rye plus metribuzin resulted in 39,324 seeds m–2, compared to ≤4,386 seeds m–2 from all other cereal rye treatments. In 2022–23, Italian ryegrass seed production in cereal rye was lower when either metribuzin or pyroxasulfone were used preemergence (2,670 and 1,299 seeds m–2, respectively) compared with cereal rye that did not receive an herbicide treatment (5,600 seeds m–2). cereal rye (Secale cereale L.) and crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum L.)

With wide-field phased array feed technology, the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) is ideally suited to search for seemingly rare radio transient sources that are difficult to discover previous-generation narrow-field telescopes. The Commensal Real-time ASKAP Fast Transient (CRAFT) Survey Science Project has developed instrumentation to continuously search for fast radio transients (duration ≲ 1 second) with ASKAP, with a particular focus on finding and localising Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs). Since 2018, the CRAFT survey has been searching for FRBs and other fast transients by incoherently adding the intensities received by individual ASKAP antennas, and then correcting for the impact of frequency dispersion on these short-duration signals in the resultant incoherent sum (ICS) in real-time. This low-latency detection enables the triggering of voltage buffers, which facilitates the localisation of the transient source and the study of spectro-polarimetric properties at high time resolution. Here we report the sample of 43 FRBs discovered in this CRAFT/ICS survey to date. This includes 22 FRBs that had not previously been reported: 16 FRBs localised by ASKAP to. ≲ 1 arcsec and 6 FRBs localised to ∼ 10 arcmin. Of the new arcsecond-localised FRBs, we have identified and characterised host galaxies (and measured redshifts) for 11. The median of all 30 measured host redshifts from the survey to date is z = 0.23. We summarise results from the searches, in particular those contributing to our understanding of the burst progenitors and emission mechanisms, and on the use of bursts as probes of intervening media. We conclude by foreshadowing future FRB surveys with ASKAP using a coherent detection system that is currently being commissioned. This will increase the burst detection rate by a factor of approximately ten and also the distance to which ASKAP can localise FRBs.

Vaccines have revolutionised the field of medicine, eradicating and controlling many diseases. Recent pandemic vaccine successes have highlighted the accelerated pace of vaccine development and deployment. Leveraging this momentum, attention has shifted to cancer vaccines and personalised cancer vaccines, aimed at targeting individual tumour-specific abnormalities. The UK, now regarded for its vaccine capabilities, is an ideal nation for pioneering cancer vaccine trials. This article convened experts to share insights and approaches to navigate the challenges of cancer vaccine development with personalised or precision cancer vaccines, as well as fixed vaccines. Emphasising partnership and proactive strategies, this article outlines the ambition to harness national and local system capabilities in the UK; to work in collaboration with potential pharmaceutic partners; and to seize the opportunity to deliver the pace for rapid advances in cancer vaccine technology.

If being asked to give to charity stimulates an emotional response, like empathy, that makes giving difficult to resist, a natural self-control mechanism might be to avoid being asked in the first place. We replicate a result from a field experiment that points to the role of empathy in giving. We conduct an experiment in a large superstore in which we solicit donations to charity and randomly allow shoppers the opportunity to avoid solicitation by using the other door. We find the rate of avoidance by store entrants to be 8.9 %. However, we also find that the avoidance effect disappears in very cold weather, suggesting that avoidance behavior is sensitive to its cost.

This systematic review evaluates the use of Normothermic Machine Perfusion (NMP) as a testbed for developing peripheral nerve and muscle interfaces for bionic prostheses. Our findings suggest that NMP offers a viable alternative to traditional models, with significant implications for future research and clinical applications. A literature search was performed using Ovid MEDLINE (1946 to October 2023), revealing 559 abstracts.

No studies using nerve and/or muscle electrodes for the testing or development of bionic interface technologies were identified, except for one conference abstract. NMP could serve as a test bed for future development of interface biocompatibility, selectivity, stability and data transfer, whilst complying with ethical practices and potentially offering greater relevance for human translation. Implemention of machine perfusion requires experienced personnel. Encompassing artificial intelligence alongside machine learning will provide a significant contribution to advancing interface technologies for multiple neurological disorders.

We use the 529 college savings plan setting to investigate whether and why households make suboptimal choices to invest in local assets. We estimate that 67% of open accounts between 2010 and 2020 were located suboptimally due to the plans’ tax inefficiencies and high expenses. Over the accounts’ projected lifetimes, such investments yielded expected losses of 8% on average or $15.6 billion in 2020 alone. We then investigate why suboptimal investment is so prevalent. Consistent with households’ lack of understanding of state-level tax benefits, we find that a meaningful proportion of households does not account for the potential tax benefits and costs of local versus nonlocal 529 investment. Household financial literacy and plan disclosure complexity appear to explain suboptimal investment patterns, which further supports the role of information-processing frictions. Our study presents novel evidence on individuals’ preferences for local assets and how information-processing frictions shape their investment decisions, reducing their financial well-being.

A method of generating any number of score and correlation matrices with arbitrary population parameters is described. Either Z scores or stanines are sampled from a normal population to represent factor scores by an IBM 1620 program. These are converted to variates from a population with an a priori factor structure. The effectiveness of the method is illustrated from research data. Some further modifications and uses of the method are discussed.