When implementing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, perturbation caused by numerical errors is sometimes inevitable. This paper studies how the perturbation of MCMC affects the convergence speed and approximation accuracy. Our results show that when the original Markov chain converges to stationarity fast enough and the perturbed transition kernel is a good approximation to the original transition kernel, the corresponding perturbed sampler has fast convergence speed and high approximation accuracy as well. Our convergence analysis is conducted under either the Wasserstein metric or the $\chi^2$ metric, both are widely used in the literature. The results can be extended to obtain non-asymptotic error bounds for MCMC estimators. We demonstrate how to apply our convergence and approximation results to the analysis of specific sampling algorithms, including Random walk Metropolis, Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm with perturbed target densities, and parallel tempering Monte Carlo with perturbed densities. Finally, we present some simple numerical examples to verify our theoretical claims.

Folate metabolism is involved in the development and progression of various cancers. We investigated the association of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in folate-metabolising genes and their interactions with serum folate concentrations with overall survival (OS) and liver cancer-specific survival (LCSS) of newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. We detected the genotypes of six SNP in three genes related to folate metabolism: methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR), 5-methyltetrahydrofolate-homocysteine methyltransferase reductase (MTRR) and 5-methyltetrahydrofolate-homocysteine methyltransferase (MTR). Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % CI. This analysis included 970 HCC patients with genotypes of six SNP, and 864 of them had serum folate measurements. During a median follow-up of 722 d, 393 deaths occurred, with 360 attributed to HCC. In the fully-adjusted models, the MTRR rs1801394 polymorphism was significantly associated with OS in additive (per G allele: HR = 0·84, 95 % CI: 0·71, 0·99), co-dominant (AG v. AA: HR = 0·77; 95 % CI: 0·62, 0·96) and dominant (AG + GG v. AA: HR = 0·78; 95 % CI: 0·63, 0·96) models. Carrying increasing numbers of protective alleles was linked to better LCSS (HR10–12 v. 2–6 = 0·70; 95 % CI: 0·49, 1·00) and OS (HR10–12 v. 2–6 = 0·67; 95 % CI: 0·47, 0·95). Furthermore, we observed significant interactions on both multiplicative and additive scales between serum folate levels and MTRR rs1801394 polymorphism. Carrying the variant G allele of the MTRR rs1801394 is associated with better HCC prognosis and may enhance the favourable association between higher serum folate levels and improved survival among HCC patients.

This paper retrospectively analysed the prevalence of macrolide-resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MRMP) in some parts of China. Between January 2013 and December 2019, we collected 4,145 respiratory samples, including pharyngeal swabs and alveolar lavage fluid. The highest PCR-positive rate of M. pneumoniae was 74.5% in Beijing, the highest resistance rate was 100% in Shanghai, and Gansu was the lowest with 20%. The highest PCR-positive rate of M. pneumoniae was 74.5% in 2013, and the highest MRMP was 97.4% in 2019; the PCR-positive rate of M. pneumoniae for adults in Beijing was 17.9% and the MRMP was 10.48%. Among the children diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), the PCR-positive and macrolide-resistant rates of M. pneumoniae were both higher in the severe ones. A2063G in domain V of 23S rRNA was the major macrolide-resistant mutation, accounting for more than 90%. The MIC values of all MRMP to erythromycin and azithromycin were ≥ 64 μg/ml, and the MICs of tetracycline and levofloxacin were ≤ 0.5 μg/ml and ≤ 1 μg/ml, respectively. The macrolide resistance varied in different regions and years. Among inpatients, the macrolide-resistant rate was higher in severe pneumonia. A2063G was the common mutation, and we found no resistance to tetracycline and levofloxacin.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Clinical indicators predictive of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in trauma patients at multiple time points are not well outlined, particularly at time of discharge. We aimed to describe and predict inpatient and post-discharge risk factors of VTE after trauma using a multi-variate regression model and best of class machine learning (ML) models. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: In a prospective, case-cohort study, all trauma patients (pts) who arrived as level 1 or 2 trauma activations, from June 2018 to February 2020 were considered for study inclusion. A subset of pts who developed incident, first time, VTE and those who did not develop VTE within 90 days of discharge were identified. VTE were confirmed either by imaging or at autopsy during inpatient stay or post-discharge. Outcomes were defined as the development of symptomatic VTE (DVT and/or PE) within 90 days of discharge.A multi-variate Cox regression model and a best in class of a set of 5 different ML models (support-vector machine, random-forest, naives Bayes, logistic regression, neural network]) were used to predict VTE using models applied a) at 24 hours of injury date or b) on day of patient discharge. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Among 393 trauma pts (ISS=12.0, hospital LOS=4.0 days, age=48 years, 71% male, 96% with blunt mechanism, mortality 2.8%), 36 developed inpatient VTE and 36 developed VTE after discharge. In a weighted, multivariate Cox model, any type of surgery by day 1, increased age per 10 years, and BMI per 5 points were predictors of overall symptomatic VTE (C-stat 0.738). Prophylactic IVC filter placement (4.40), increased patient age per 10 years, and BMI per 5 points were predictors of post-discharge symptomatic VTE (C-stat= 0.698). A neural network ML model predicted VTE by day 1 with accuracy and AUC of 0.82 and 0.76, with performance exceeding those of a Cox model. A naīve Bayesian ML model predicted VTE at discharge, with accuracy and AUC of 0.81 and 0.77 at time of discharge, with performance exceeding those of a Cox model. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The rate of inpatient and post-discharge VTEs remain high. Limitations: single institution study, limited number of patients, internal validation only, with the use of limited number of ML models. We developed and internally validated a ML based tool.Future work will focus on external validation and expansion of ML techniques.

The penultimate deglaciation was characterized by a sub-millennial-scale warm event in the Heinrich Stadial 11(HS11), termed the 134-ka event. However, its precise timing and structure remain poorly constrained due to the lack of high-resolution and precisely dated records. We present an oxygen isotope record of a speleothem with well-developed annual lamina from Zhangjia Cave, located on the north margin of the Sichuan Basin, characterizing Asian summer monsoon (ASM) changes in the 134-ka event, which included an increase excursion of ca. 149 years and decrease excursion of ca. 200 years, inferred from 3.3‰ δ18O variations. This event also divided the weak ASM interval-II (WMI-II), corresponding to HS11, into two stages, the WMI-IIa 132.8–134.1 ka and WMI-IIb 134.4–136.4 ka. With a comparable climatic pattern globally, the 134-ka event is essentially similar to the millennial-scale events in last glacial–deglacial period. Particularly, the observed weak-strong-weak ASM sequence (138.8–132.8 ka) is largely controlled by changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forced by the meltwater of northern high-latitude ice sheets. Moreover, our results underpin that AMOC, rather than the global ice volume, is more critical to ASM variations during the last two deglaciations.

Circulating n-3 PUFA, which integrate endogenous and exogenous n-3 PUFA, can be better used to investigate the relationship between n-3 PUFA and disease. However, studies examining the associations between circulating n-3 PUFA and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk were limited, and the results remained inconclusive. This case–control study aimed to examine the association between serum n-3 PUFA and CRC risk in Chinese population. A total of 680 CRC cases and 680 sex- and age-matched (5-year interval) controls were included. Fatty acids were assayed by GC. OR and 95 % CI were calculated using multivariable logistic regression after adjustment for potential confounders. Higher level of serum α-linolenic acid (ALA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), DHA, long-chain n-3 PUFA and total n-3 PUFA were associated with lower odds of CRC. The adjusted OR and 95 % CI were 0·34 (0·24, 0·49, Pfor trend < 0·001) for ALA, 0·57 (0·40, 0·80, Pfor trend < 0·001) for DPA, 0·48 (0·34, 0·68, Pfor trend < 0·001) for DHA, 0·39 (0·27, 0·56, Pfor trend < 0·001) for long-chain n-3 PUFA and 0·31 (0·22, 0·45, Pfor trend < 0·001) for total n-3 PUFA comparing the highest with the lowest quartile. However, there was no statistically significant association between EPA and odds of CRC. Analysis stratified by sex showed that ALA, DHA, long-chain n-3 PUFA and total n-3 PUFA were inversely associated with odds of CRC in both sexes. This study indicated that serum ALA, DPA, DHA, long-chain n-3 PUFA and total n-3 PUFA were inversely associated with odds of having CRC in Chinese population.

In this paper, a 2D angle amplifier based on peristrophic multiplexed volume Bragg gratings is designed and prepared, in which a calculation method is firstly proposed to optimize the number of channels to a minimum. The induction of peristrophic multiplexing reduces the performance difference in one bulk of the grating, whereas there is no need to deliberately optimize the fabrication process. It is revealed that a discrete 2D angle deflection range of ±30° is obtained and the relative diffraction efficiency of all the grating channels reaches more than 55% with a root-mean-square deviation of less than 3.4% in the same grating. The deviation of the Bragg incidence and exit angles from the expected values is less than 0.07°. It is believed that the proposed 2D angle amplifier has the potential to realize high-performance and large-angle beam steering in high-power laser beam scanning systems.

Late Palaeozoic igneous rock associations in response to subduction, accretion, and final closure of the eastern Palaeo-Asian Ocean play a significant role in understanding the geodynamic evolution of the southeastern Central Asian Orogenic Belt. Previous studies have identified a Permian arc magmatic belt associated with the southward-dipping subduction of the eastern Palaeo-Asian Ocean along the Solonker–Changchun suture zone. The genetic mechanism and associated geodynamic settings are of great importance in deciphering the evolution of the eastern Palaeo-Asian Ocean. This paper presents zircon U–Pb–Hf isotope and whole-rock geochemical analyses for a suite of magmatic rocks including the early Permian diorite porphyrites (ca. 281.0 Ma), andesites (ca. 276 Ma) and rhyolites (ca. 275 Ma) in the Kulun region. The diorite porphyrites and andesites have high SiO2 and total alkali contents, and low MgO contents and Mg no. values, with enrichments in large ion lithophile elements and depletions in high-field-strength elements. These geochemical characteristics, together with low-Sr and high-Yb contents, a weak concave-upward shape of middle rare earth elements and negative Eu anomalies, suggest that these intermediate igneous rocks were generated by partial melting of amphibolitic lower crust at a crustal depth of 30–40 km. The rhyolites have heterogeneous isotopic compositions, with ϵHf(t) values and TDM2 ages of –20.8 to +0.5 and 3578∼1494 Ma, implying that they were likely derived from partial melting of a mixed source dominated by recycled ancient crust with minor juvenile crustal materials. The rhyolites show potassic affinity with relatively high K2O and very low Na2O, which was attributed to liquid immiscibility of felsic magma and subsequent limited fractional crystallization of plagioclase. The regional igneous associations, metamorphic events, and coeval sedimentary rocks along the Solonker–Changchun suture zone indicate that the early Permian igneous rocks were formed in an active continental arc environment in response to southward subduction of the eastern Palaeo-Asian Ocean.

We present an experimental and numerical study of turbulent thermal convection in the presence of an effective horizontal buoyancy that generates extra shear at the boundary. Geometrical confinements are also applied by varying the streamwise and spanwise aspect ratios of the convection cell to condense the plumes. With these, we systematically explore the effects of plume and shear on heat transfer. It is found that a streamwise confinement results in increased plume coverage but decreased shear compared with spanwise confinement. The fact that streamwise confinement leads to a higher vertical heat transfer efficiency than the spanwise confined case suggests that the increase of plume coverage is the dominant effect responsible for the enhanced heat transfer. Our results highlight the potential applications of coherent structure manipulation in efficient passive heat transfer control and thermal engineering. We also analyse the energetics of the present system and derive the expression of mixing efficiency accordingly. The mixing efficiency is found to increase with both the buoyancy ratio and streamwise dimension.

In recent years, the controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score has increasingly became an effective indicator associated with tumor prognosis. This study was conducted to synthesise data on the prognostic value of CONUT score on patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) or renal cell carcinoma (RCC) undergoing nephrectomy. We designed and performed a systematic analysis of studies that verified the correlation between preoperative CONUT score and prognosis for UTUC and RCC using PubMed, Web of Science and Embase. The conclusion was clarified by pooled hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Subgroup analysis were further conducted in accordance with different primary tumor. Six studies involving 3529 patients were included in this evidence synthesis, which revealed that the CONUT score had a potential role to predict the survival of UTUC and RCC patients accepting surgery. Pooled analysis showed that the overall survival (OS, HR 2·32, p < 0·0001), cancer-specific survival (CSS, HR 2·68, p < 0·0001) and disease-free survival (DFS, HR 1·62, p < 0·00001) were inferior in the high CONUT score group when compared with low score group. Subgroup analysis revealed that this result was in line with UTUC (OS: HR 1·86, p = 0·02; CSS: HR 2·24, p = 0·01; DFS: HR 1·54, p < 0·00001) and RCC (OS: HR 3·05, p < 0·00001; CSS: HR 3·47, p < 0·00001; DFS: HR 2·21, p = 0·0005) patients respectively. Consequently, the CONUT score is a valuable preoperative index to predict the survival of patients with UTUC or RCC undergoing nephrectomy.

The effect and the mechanism of high glucose on fish muscle cells are not fully understood. In the present study, muscle cells of olive flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) were treated with high glucose (33 mM) in vitro. Cells were incubated in three kinds of medium containing 5 mM glucose, 5 mM glucose and 28 mM mannitol (as an isotonic contrast) or 33 mM glucose named the Control group, the Mannitol group and the high glucose (HG) group, respectively. Results showed that high glucose increased the ADP:ATP ratio and the reactive oxygen species (ROS) level, decreased mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP), induced the release of cytochrome C (CytC) and cell apoptosis. High glucose also led to cell glycogen accumulation by increasing the glucose uptake ability and affecting the mRNA expressions of glycogen synthase and glycogen phosphorylase. Meanwhile, it activated AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), inhibited the activity of mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signalling pathway and the expressions of myogenic regulatory factors (MRF). The expressions of myostatin-1 (mstn-1) and E3 ubiquitin ligases including muscle RING-finger protein 1 (murf-1) and muscle atrophy F-box protein (mafbx) were also increased by the high glucose treatment. No difference was found between the Mannitol group and the Control group. These results demonstrate that high glucose has the effects of inducing apoptosis, increasing glycogen accumulation and inhibiting protein synthesis on muscle cells of olive flounder. The mitochondria-mediated apoptotic signalling pathway, AMPK and mTOR pathways participated in these biological effects.

Late Mesozoic igneous rocks are important for deciphering the Mesozoic tectonic setting of NE China. In this paper, we present whole-rock geochemical data, zircon U–Pb ages and Lu–Hf isotope data for Early Cretaceous volcanic rocks from the Tulihe area of the northern Great Xing’an Range (GXR), with the aim of evaluating the petrogenesis and genetic relationships of these rocks, inferring crust–mantle interactions and better constraining extension-related geodynamic processes in the GXR. Zircon U–Pb ages indicate that the rhyolites and trachytic volcanic rocks formed during late Early Cretaceous time (c. 130–126 Ma). Geochemically, the highly fractionated I-type rhyolites exhibit high-K calc-alkaline, metaluminous to weakly peraluminous characteristics. They are enriched in light rare earth elements (LREEs) and large-ion lithophile elements (LILEs) but depleted in high-field-strength elements (HFSEs), with their magmatic zircons ϵHf(t) values ranging from +4.1 to +9.0. These features suggest that the rhyolites were derived from the partial melting of a dominantly juvenile, K-rich basaltic lower crust. The trachytic volcanic rocks are high-K calc-alkaline series and exhibit metaluminous characteristics. They have a wide range of zircon ϵHf(t) values (−17.8 to +12.9), indicating that these trachytic volcanic rocks originated from a dominantly lithospheric-mantle source with the involvement of asthenospheric mantle materials, and subsequently underwent extensive assimilation and fractional crystallization processes. Combining our results and the spatiotemporal migration of the late Early Cretaceous magmatic events, we propose that intense Early Cretaceous crust–mantle interaction took place within the northern GXR, and possibly the whole of NE China, and that it was related to the upwelling of asthenospheric mantle induced by rollback of the Palaeo-Pacific flat-subducting slab.

This study aimed to evaluate to what extent the different interval times between trophectoderm (TE) biopsy and vitrification influence the clinical outcomes in preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) cycles. Patients who underwent frozen embryo transfer (FET) after PGT between 2015 and 2019 were recruited. In total, 297 cycles with single day 5 euploid blastocyst transfer were included. These cycles were divided into three groups according to the interval times: <1 h group, 1–2 h group, and ≥2 h group. Blastocyst survival, clinical pregnancy, miscarriage, and ongoing pregnancy rates were compared. The results showed that, in PGT-SR cycles, survival rate in the ≥2 h group (96.72%) was significantly lower than in the <1 h group (100%, P = 0.047). The clinical pregnancy rate in the ≥2 h group was 55.93%, significantly lower than in the <1 h group (74.26%, P = 0.017). The ongoing pregnancy rates in the 1–2 h group and the ≥2 h group were 48.28% and 47.46%, respectively, significantly lower than that in the <1 h group (67.33%, P < 0.05). The miscarriage rate in the 1–2 h group was 18.42%, significantly higher than that in the <1 h group (5.33%, P = 0.027). In PGT-A cycles, the clinical pregnancy and ongoing pregnancy rates in the <1 h group were 67.44% and 53.49%, respectively, higher than that in the 1–2 h group (52.94%, 47.06%, P > 0.05) and the ≥2 h group (52.63%, 36.84%, P > 0.05). In conclusion, vitrification of blastocysts beyond 1 h after biopsy significantly influences embryo survival and clinical outcomes and is therefore not recommended.

To determine what exacerbate severity of the COVID-19 among patients without comorbidities and advanced age and investigate potential clinical indicators for early surveillance, we adopted a nested case−control study, design in which severe cases (case group, n = 67) and moderate cases (control group, n = 67) of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 without comorbidities, with ages ranging from 18 to 50 years who admitted to Wuhan Tongji Hospital were matched based on age, sex and BMI. Demographic and clinical characteristics, and risk factors associated with severe symptoms were analysed. Percutaneous oxygen saturation (SpO2), lymphocyte counts, C-reactive protein (CRP) and IL-10 were found closely associated with severe COVID-19. The adjusted multivariable logistic regression analyses revealed that the independent risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 were CRP (OR 2.037, 95% CI 1.078–3.847, P = 0.028), SpO2 (OR 1.639, 95% CI 0.943–2.850, P = 0.080) and lymphocyte (OR 1.530, 95% CI 0.850–2.723, P = 0.148), whereas the changes exhibited by indicators influenced incidence of disease severity. Males exhibited higher levels of indicators associated with inflammation, myocardial injury and kidney injury than the females. This study reveals that increased CRP levels and decreased SpO2 and lymphocyte counts could serve as potential indicators of severe COVID-19, independent of comorbidities, advanced age and sex. Males could at higher risk of developing severe symptoms of COVID-19 than females.

Animal domestication represents one of the most important advances in human history. Pigs (Sus scrofa) were domesticated multiple times in prehistory and are therefore ideal for examining how geography and culture shape the domestication process. The authors integrate zooarchaeological and isotopic data from Neolithic (c. 10 000–2000 BP) pigs from central China and the Lower Yangtze Valley to demonstrate two dominant domestication trajectories. In central China, pig husbandry intensified following domestication, corresponding with population growth and a shift in socio-economic organisation. In the Lower Yangtze Valley, however, increasing urbanism was associated with a preference for wild resources supplemented by the limited exploitation of domestic pigs.