This study proposes two novel time-varying model-averaging methods for time-varying parameter regression models. When the number of predictors is small, we propose a novel time-varying complete subset-averaging (TVCSA) procedure, where the optimal time-varying subset size is obtained by minimizing the local leave-h-out cross-validation criterion. The TVCSA method is asymptotically optimal for achieving the lowest possible local mean squared error. When the number of predictors is relatively large, we propose a factor TVCSA method to reduce the computational burden by first reducing the dimension of predictors by extracting a few factors using principal component analysis and then obtaining the TVCSA forecasts from time-varying models with the generated factors. We show that the TVCSA estimator remains asymptotically optimal in the presence of generated factors. Monte Carlo simulation studies have provided favorable evidence for the TVCSA methods relative to the popular model-averaging methods in the literature. Empirical applications to equity premiums and inflation forecasting highlight the practical merits of the proposed methods.

Although dietary factors have been examined as potential risk factors for liver cancer, the evidence is still inconclusive. Using a diet-wide association analysis, our research evaluated the associations of 126 foods and nutrients on the risk of liver cancer in a Chinese population. We obtained the diet consumption of 72,680 women in the Shanghai Women’s Health Study using baseline dietary questionnaires. The association between each food and nutrient and liver cancer risk was quantified by Cox regression model. A false discovery rate of 0.05 was used to determine the foods and nutrients which need to be verified. Totally 256 incident liver cancer cases were identified in 1,267,391 person-years during the follow-up duration. At the statistical significance level (P ≤ 0.05), higher intakes of cooked wheaten foods, pear, grape and copper were inversely associated with liver cancer risk, while spinach, leafy vegetables, eggplant and carrots showed the positive associations. After considering multiple comparisons, no dietary variable was associated with liver cancer risk. Similar findings were seen in the stratification, secondary and sensitivity analyses. Our findings observed no significant association between dietary factors and liver cancer risk after considering multiple comparisons in Chinese women. More evidence is needed to explore the associations between diet and female liver cancer occurrence.

This paper retrospectively analysed the prevalence of macrolide-resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MRMP) in some parts of China. Between January 2013 and December 2019, we collected 4,145 respiratory samples, including pharyngeal swabs and alveolar lavage fluid. The highest PCR-positive rate of M. pneumoniae was 74.5% in Beijing, the highest resistance rate was 100% in Shanghai, and Gansu was the lowest with 20%. The highest PCR-positive rate of M. pneumoniae was 74.5% in 2013, and the highest MRMP was 97.4% in 2019; the PCR-positive rate of M. pneumoniae for adults in Beijing was 17.9% and the MRMP was 10.48%. Among the children diagnosed with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), the PCR-positive and macrolide-resistant rates of M. pneumoniae were both higher in the severe ones. A2063G in domain V of 23S rRNA was the major macrolide-resistant mutation, accounting for more than 90%. The MIC values of all MRMP to erythromycin and azithromycin were ≥ 64 μg/ml, and the MICs of tetracycline and levofloxacin were ≤ 0.5 μg/ml and ≤ 1 μg/ml, respectively. The macrolide resistance varied in different regions and years. Among inpatients, the macrolide-resistant rate was higher in severe pneumonia. A2063G was the common mutation, and we found no resistance to tetracycline and levofloxacin.

Few studies have evaluated the joint effect of trace elements on spontaneous preterm birth (SPTB). This study aimed to examine the relationships between the individual or mixed maternal serum concentrations of Fe, Cu, Zn, Se, Sr and Mo during pregnancy, and risk of SPTB. Inductively coupled plasma MS was employed to determine maternal serum concentrations of the six trace elements in 192 cases with SPTB and 282 controls with full-term delivery. Multivariate logistic regression, weighted quantile sum regression (WQSR) and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) were used to evaluate the individual and joint effects of trace elements on SPTB. The median concentrations of Sr and Mo were significantly higher in controls than in SPTB group (P < 0·05). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, compared with the lowest quartile levels of individual trace elements, the third- and fourth-quartile Sr or Mo concentrations were significantly associated with reduced risk of SPTB with adjusted OR (aOR) of 0·432 (95 CI < 0·05). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, compared with the lowest quartile levels of individual trace elements, the third- and fourth-quartile Sr or Mo concentrations were significantly associated with reduced risk of SPTB with adjusted aOR of 0·432 (95 % CI 0·247, 0·756), 0·386 (95 % CI 0·213, 0·701), 0·512 (95 % CI 0·297, 0·883) and 0·559 (95 % CI 0·321, 0·972), respectively. WQSR revealed the inverse combined effect of the trace elements mixture on SPTB (aOR = 0·368, 95 % CI 0·228, 0·593). BKMR analysis confirmed the overall mixture of the trace elements was inversely associated with the risk of SPTB, and the independent effect of Sr and Mo was significant. Our findings suggest that the risk of SPTB decreased with concentrations of the six trace elements, with Sr and Mo being the major contributors.

The comparisons among 126 14C dates of Carex samples including separated leaf and root parts with acid (A)-treatment and acid-base-acid (ABA)-treatment, and 48 published 14C dates of bulk peat plants on a 92-cm core from Jinchuan Mire in NE China, indicate old carbon influence (OCI) on the 14C dates. The OCI varies with plant species, pretreatment and peat depth. In vascular peat plants such as Carex, humin fractions (remains after ABA treatment) and humic acids are representative of the original plant precursor, while fulvic acids are regarded as the secondary mobile product which should be removed for 14C dating. ABA- treatment removes both fulvic acids and humic acids, whereas A-treatment gets rid of only fulvic acids. Carex roots uptake more dissolved CO2 in peat water. Carex leaves may use more CO2 (involving degassing CO2) above the peat surface. By removing humic acids throughout ABA treatment, the OCI may vary differently over depth (time). ABA treatment cannot eliminate the fixed OCI in humin fractions of vascular peat plants, instead, this treatment may enhance OCI by removing humic acid which may represent the true age of the plants. In addition, Bacon model results on this core could not show rapid changes in accumulation rate.

The aims of this study were to examine the spillover effects of violent attacks, coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) exposure, and their interactions on health professionals’ mental health, and the role of organizational support in their relationships in China. A two-phase survey data (n = 10,901) before and after the first outbreak of COVID-19 was integrated with regional macro data on the number of lawsuit cases of violent attacks and COVID-19 cases. Three studies were designed to isolate the general spillover impact of violent attacks on the mental health of health professionals, how COVID-19 affects the mental health of health professionals, and whether organizational support moderates the relationship between violent attacks and mental health through econometric regressions. Violent attacks and COVID-19 are negatively associated with the mental health of health professionals, and the outbreak of COVID-19 adversely deteriorates the spillover effects of violent attacks. Physicians, not nurses, are the most affected group. Better perceived support from hospitals can significantly mitigate the adverse effects of COVID-19, violent attacks, and their interactions on the mental health of health professionals. COVID-19 deteriorates the adverse effects of violent attacks on the mental health of health professionals, while better organizational support is helpful to mitigate these effects.

Childhood is a critical period for muscle accumulation. Studies in elders have reported that antioxidant vitamins could improve muscle health. However, limited studies have assessed such associations in children. This study included 243 boys and 183 girls. A seventy-nine-item FFQ was used to investigate dietary nutrients intake. Plasma levels of retinol and α-tocopherol were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography with MS. Dual X-ray absorptiometry was used to assess appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASM) and total body fat. The ASM index (ASMI) and ASMI Z-score were then calculated. Hand grip strength was measured using a Jamar® Plus+ Hand Dynamometer. Fully adjusted multiple linear regression models showed that for each unit increase in plasma retinol content, ASM, ASMI, left HGS and ASMI Z-score increased by 2·43 × 10−3 kg, 1·33 × 10−3 kg/m2, 3·72 × 10−3 kg and 2·45 × 10−3 in girls, respectively (P < 0·001–0·050). ANCOVA revealed a dose–response relationship between tertiles of plasma retinol level and muscle indicators (Ptrend: 0·001–0·007). The percentage differences between the top and bottom tertiles were 8·38 %, 6·26 %, 13·2 %, 12·1 % and 116 % for ASM, ASMI, left HGS, right HGS and ASMI Z-score in girls, respectively (Pdiff: 0·005–0·020). No such associations were observed in boys. Plasma α-tocopherol levels were not correlated with muscle indicators in either sex. In conclusion, high circulating retinol levels are positively associated with muscle mass and strength in school-age girls.

Late Palaeozoic igneous rock associations in response to subduction, accretion, and final closure of the eastern Palaeo-Asian Ocean play a significant role in understanding the geodynamic evolution of the southeastern Central Asian Orogenic Belt. Previous studies have identified a Permian arc magmatic belt associated with the southward-dipping subduction of the eastern Palaeo-Asian Ocean along the Solonker–Changchun suture zone. The genetic mechanism and associated geodynamic settings are of great importance in deciphering the evolution of the eastern Palaeo-Asian Ocean. This paper presents zircon U–Pb–Hf isotope and whole-rock geochemical analyses for a suite of magmatic rocks including the early Permian diorite porphyrites (ca. 281.0 Ma), andesites (ca. 276 Ma) and rhyolites (ca. 275 Ma) in the Kulun region. The diorite porphyrites and andesites have high SiO2 and total alkali contents, and low MgO contents and Mg no. values, with enrichments in large ion lithophile elements and depletions in high-field-strength elements. These geochemical characteristics, together with low-Sr and high-Yb contents, a weak concave-upward shape of middle rare earth elements and negative Eu anomalies, suggest that these intermediate igneous rocks were generated by partial melting of amphibolitic lower crust at a crustal depth of 30–40 km. The rhyolites have heterogeneous isotopic compositions, with ϵHf(t) values and TDM2 ages of –20.8 to +0.5 and 3578∼1494 Ma, implying that they were likely derived from partial melting of a mixed source dominated by recycled ancient crust with minor juvenile crustal materials. The rhyolites show potassic affinity with relatively high K2O and very low Na2O, which was attributed to liquid immiscibility of felsic magma and subsequent limited fractional crystallization of plagioclase. The regional igneous associations, metamorphic events, and coeval sedimentary rocks along the Solonker–Changchun suture zone indicate that the early Permian igneous rocks were formed in an active continental arc environment in response to southward subduction of the eastern Palaeo-Asian Ocean.

Using the KIDScoreTM D3 (KID3) scoring system, day 3 embryos observed by time-lapse imaging (TLI) were scored to explore the predictive value of the KID scoring system on the developmental potential of embryos. The kinetic parameters of 477 normal fertilized embryos from 77 patients who underwent TLI in our hospital from January 2019 to June 2020 were evaluated by KID3, and the embryos were divided into five groups according to the scores for retrospective analysis of blastocyst formation. Additionally, the high-quality blastocyst formation rate, pregnancy rate and early abortion rate were analyzed via KID3 and traditional morphological assessments, and comparisons of differences among different ages were also performed. In the KID3 estimate, the blastocyst or high-quality blastocyst formation rate in the score 5 group was markedly higher than that in the score 1–4 groups. Blastocyst or high-quality blastocyst formation rates in the A group (the results of two evaluation tools indicated they were excellent embryos) and the B group (KID3: excellent embryos, traditional evaluation: not excellent embryos) were evidently increased in comparison with the C or D group (KID3: not excellent embryos, traditional evaluation: excellent embryo or not, respectively). Furthermore, the percentages of score 5 embryos, blastocyst and high-quality blastocyst formation rates for patients ≥ 35 years old were markedly decreased compared with those for patients < 34 years old, while the trends of nondiploid cleavage, multinucleation and asymmetric division were the opposite. Collectively, the KID3 scoring system may be a promising predictive tool for screening embryos with better developmental potential.

For individual cultures, findings on regulating embryo density by changing the microdrop volume are contradictory. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between embryo density and the developmental outcome of day 3 embryos after adjusting covariates. In total, 1196 embryos from 206 couples who had undergone in vitro fertilization treatment were analyzed retrospectively. Three embryo densities were used routinely, i.e. one embryo in a drop (30 μl/embryo), two embryos in a drop (15 μl/embryo) and three embryos in a drop (10 μl/embryo). Embryo quality on day 3 was evaluated, both the cell number of day 3 embryos and the proportion of successful implantations served as endpoints. Maternal age, paternal age, antral follicles and level of anti-Müllerian hormone, type of infertility, controlled ovarian stimulation protocol, length of stimulation, number of retrieved oocytes, number of zygotes (two pronuclei) and insemination type were covariates and adjusted. After adjusting fully for all covariates, the cell number of day 3 embryos was significantly increased by 0.40 (95% CI 0.00, 0.79; P = 0.048) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.02, 1.54; P = 0.044) in the 15 μl/embryo and 10 μl/embryo group separately, compared with the 30 μl/embryo group. The proportions of implanted embryos were 42.1%, 48.7% and 0.0% in the 30 μl/embryo, 15 μl/embryo and 10 μl/embryo groups respectively. There was no statistical significance (P = 0.22) between the 30 μl/embryo group and the 15 μl/embryo group. After adjusting for confounders that were significant in univariate analysis, embryo density was still not associated with day 3 embryo implantation potential (P > 0.05). In a 30-μl microdrop, culturing embryos with an embryo density of both 15 and 10 μl/embryo increased the cell number of day 3 embryos, which did not benefit embryo implanting potential, compared with individual culture of 30 μl/embryo.

Previous studies have suggested that maternal active smoking can increase the risk of birth defects, but evidence on second-hand tobacco smoke (SHS) is limited. We aimed to assess the association between maternal exposure to SHS and birth defects in a Chinese population. The data were based on a large-scale cross-sectional survey conducted in Shaanxi Province, China. Considering the characteristics of survey design and the potential impact of confounding factors, we adopted propensity score matching (PSM) to match the SHS exposure group and the non-exposure group to attain a balance of the confounders between the two groups. Subsequently, conditional logistic regression was employed to estimate the effect of SHS exposure on birth defects. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses were conducted to verify the key findings. After nearest neighbor matching of PSM with a ratio of 2 and a caliper width of 0.03, there were 6,205 and 12,410 participants in the exposure and control group, respectively. Pregnant women exposed to SHS were estimated to be 58% more likely to have infants with overall birth defects (OR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.30–1.91) and 75% more likely to have infants with circulatory system defects (OR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.26–2.44). We also observed that the risk effect of overall birth defects had an increasing trend as the frequency of exposure increased. Additionally, sensitivity analyses suggested that our results had good robustness. These results indicate that maternal exposure to SHS likely increases the risk of overall birth defects, especially circulatory system defects, in Chinese offspring.

The provenance and tectonic setting of the Lower–Middle Triassic clastic sediments from the Napo basin, South China, have been examined here using detrital modes, whole-rock geochemistry and detrital zircon U–Pb ages. Field investigations indicate that these sediments consist of fan delta, slope and turbidity fan facies with dominantly southward palaeocurrent directions. Detrital modes and geochemical characteristics of the clastic rocks indicate that they were derived from mixed magmatic arc and Palaeozoic successions in a continental island arc setting, with no significant sediment recycling. The U–Pb age spectra of sandstone detrital zircons from different stratigraphic positions are similar, with one major group (300–230 Ma), two subordinate groups (400–320 Ma and 480–420 Ma, respectively) and two scattered groups (1200–800 Ma and 2000–1700 Ma, respectively). Thus, we consider that the north late Permian – Middle Triassic volcanic rocks and the uplifted Palaeozoic sedimentary/volcanic sequences constituted the predominant sources. The detritus derived from the late Permian Emeishan mafic rocks is subordinate and limited. The pre-Devonian zircons are likely sedimentary-recycled or magmatic-captured instead of directly derived from the early Palaeozoic orogen (e.g. Yunkai massif) and Neoproterozoic Jiangnan orogen because of the topographic barrier of a magmatic arc and carbonate platform. Considering the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the volcanic arc and ophiolite, we suggest that the Triassic Napo basin was a fore-arc basin within a continental island arc setting, which developed in response to the northward subduction of the Babu–Cao Bang branch ocean beneath the South China Block.

Late Mesozoic igneous rocks are important for deciphering the Mesozoic tectonic setting of NE China. In this paper, we present whole-rock geochemical data, zircon U–Pb ages and Lu–Hf isotope data for Early Cretaceous volcanic rocks from the Tulihe area of the northern Great Xing’an Range (GXR), with the aim of evaluating the petrogenesis and genetic relationships of these rocks, inferring crust–mantle interactions and better constraining extension-related geodynamic processes in the GXR. Zircon U–Pb ages indicate that the rhyolites and trachytic volcanic rocks formed during late Early Cretaceous time (c. 130–126 Ma). Geochemically, the highly fractionated I-type rhyolites exhibit high-K calc-alkaline, metaluminous to weakly peraluminous characteristics. They are enriched in light rare earth elements (LREEs) and large-ion lithophile elements (LILEs) but depleted in high-field-strength elements (HFSEs), with their magmatic zircons ϵHf(t) values ranging from +4.1 to +9.0. These features suggest that the rhyolites were derived from the partial melting of a dominantly juvenile, K-rich basaltic lower crust. The trachytic volcanic rocks are high-K calc-alkaline series and exhibit metaluminous characteristics. They have a wide range of zircon ϵHf(t) values (−17.8 to +12.9), indicating that these trachytic volcanic rocks originated from a dominantly lithospheric-mantle source with the involvement of asthenospheric mantle materials, and subsequently underwent extensive assimilation and fractional crystallization processes. Combining our results and the spatiotemporal migration of the late Early Cretaceous magmatic events, we propose that intense Early Cretaceous crust–mantle interaction took place within the northern GXR, and possibly the whole of NE China, and that it was related to the upwelling of asthenospheric mantle induced by rollback of the Palaeo-Pacific flat-subducting slab.

This study aimed to evaluate to what extent the different interval times between trophectoderm (TE) biopsy and vitrification influence the clinical outcomes in preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) cycles. Patients who underwent frozen embryo transfer (FET) after PGT between 2015 and 2019 were recruited. In total, 297 cycles with single day 5 euploid blastocyst transfer were included. These cycles were divided into three groups according to the interval times: <1 h group, 1–2 h group, and ≥2 h group. Blastocyst survival, clinical pregnancy, miscarriage, and ongoing pregnancy rates were compared. The results showed that, in PGT-SR cycles, survival rate in the ≥2 h group (96.72%) was significantly lower than in the <1 h group (100%, P = 0.047). The clinical pregnancy rate in the ≥2 h group was 55.93%, significantly lower than in the <1 h group (74.26%, P = 0.017). The ongoing pregnancy rates in the 1–2 h group and the ≥2 h group were 48.28% and 47.46%, respectively, significantly lower than that in the <1 h group (67.33%, P < 0.05). The miscarriage rate in the 1–2 h group was 18.42%, significantly higher than that in the <1 h group (5.33%, P = 0.027). In PGT-A cycles, the clinical pregnancy and ongoing pregnancy rates in the <1 h group were 67.44% and 53.49%, respectively, higher than that in the 1–2 h group (52.94%, 47.06%, P > 0.05) and the ≥2 h group (52.63%, 36.84%, P > 0.05). In conclusion, vitrification of blastocysts beyond 1 h after biopsy significantly influences embryo survival and clinical outcomes and is therefore not recommended.

To understand the characteristics and influencing factors related to cluster infections in Jiangsu Province, China, we investigated case reports to explore transmission dynamics and influencing factors of scales of cluster infection. The effectiveness of interventions was assessed by changes in the time-dependent reproductive number (Rt). From 25th January to 29th February, Jiangsu Province reported a total of 134 clusters involving 617 cases. Household clusters accounted for 79.85% of the total. The time interval from onset to report of index cases was 8 days, which was longer than that of secondary cases (4 days) (χ2 = 22.763, P < 0.001) and had a relationship with the number of secondary cases (the correlation coefficient (r) = 0.193, P = 0.040). The average interval from onset to report was different between family cluster cases (4 days) and community cluster cases (7 days) (χ2 = 28.072, P < 0.001). The average time interval from onset to isolation of patients with secondary infection (5 days) was longer than that of patients without secondary infection (3 days) (F = 9.761, P = 0.002). Asymptomatic patients and non-familial clusters had impacts on the size of the clusters. The average reduction in the Rt value in family clusters (26.00%, 0.26 ± 0.22) was lower than that in other clusters (37.00%, 0.37 ± 0.26) (F = 4.400, P = 0.039). Early detection of asymptomatic patients and early reports of non-family clusters can effectively weaken cluster infections.

Hypertension represents one of the most common pre-existing conditions and comorbidities in Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. To explore whether hypertension serves as a risk factor for disease severity, a multi-centre, retrospective study was conducted in COVID-19 patients. A total of 498 consecutively hospitalised patients with lab-confirmed COVID-19 in China were enrolled in this cohort. Using logistic regression, we assessed the association between hypertension and the likelihood of severe illness with adjustment for confounders. We observed that more than 16% of the enrolled patients exhibited pre-existing hypertension on admission. More severe COVID-19 cases occurred in individuals with hypertension than those without hypertension (21% vs. 10%, P = 0.007). Hypertension associated with the increased risk of severe illness, which was not modified by other demographic factors, such as age, sex, hospital geological location and blood pressure levels on admission. More attention and treatment should be offered to patients with underlying hypertension, who usually are older, have more comorbidities and more susceptible to cardiac complications.