During the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mathematical modeling has been widely used to understand epidemiological burden, trends, and transmission dynamics, to facilitate policy decisions, and, to a lesser extent, to evaluate infection prevention and control (IPC) measures. This review highlights the added value of using conventional epidemiology and modeling approaches to address the complexity of healthcare-associated infections (HAI) and antimicrobial resistance. It demonstrates how epidemiological surveillance data and modeling can be used to infer transmission dynamics in healthcare settings and to forecast healthcare impact, how modeling can be used to improve the validity of interpretation of epidemiological surveillance data, how modeling can be used to estimate the impact of IPC interventions, and how modeling can be used to guide IPC and antimicrobial treatment and stewardship decision-making. There are several priority areas for expanding the use of modeling in healthcare epidemiology and IPC. Importantly, modeling should be viewed as complementary to conventional healthcare epidemiological approaches, and this requires collaboration and active coordination between IPC, healthcare epidemiology, and mathematical modeling groups.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Ebolavirus disease survivors report persistent, debilitating health concerns dubbed Post-Ebola Syndrome (PES). Attention to PES in young survivors is lacking, we describe PES in pediatric EVD survivors in Eastern Sierra Leone. Additionally, we introduce our proposal investigating differential presentations of PES in pediatric survivors. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: EVD survivors were enrolled a median of 2.5 years after resolution of disease. Survivors were eligible if listed in a national register maintained by the Sierra Leone Association of Ebola Survivors. Household contacts (HCs) were identified by survivors. Participants were assigned into three comparison groups: pediatric (7-11), adolescent (12-17) and young adult (18-25). A self-reported symptom questionnaire, and a physical exam were conducted. Variables were clustered within organ system and compared across groups. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Pediatric survivors had lower levels of long-term sequelae compared to adolescents and young adults. Symptoms and abnormal physical exam signs increase with age. Musculoskeletal, psychiatric, ophthalmologic, and GI signs and symptoms were significantly different between groups. Pediatric survivors had significantly more persistent sequelae than age-matched HCs with no history of EVD; particularly within the cardiac/GI (p=.006) and psychiatric/neurological (p=.025) clusters. PES is heterogeneous with respect to age, calling for a deeper understanding of age-based differences. Even the youngest group of survivors experienced significantly more sequelae than HCs, highlighting the elevated symptom burden in these children over their peers. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Understanding mechanistic drivers will ultimately improve targeted treatments for PES. We will characterize symptom groups defining PES in children, determine the relationship between accelerated aging and PES in this population, and test how immune profiles associated with accelerated aging relate to the development of PES in children.

We review successes and challenges from five recent subglacial bedrock drilling campaigns intended to find evidence for Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat during warm periods in the geologic past. Insights into times when the polar ice sheets were smaller than present serve as guiding information for modeling efforts that aim to predict the rate and magnitude of future sea level rise that would accompany major retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. One method to provide direct evidence for the timing of deglaciations and minimum extent of prior ice sheets is to extract subglacial bedrock cores for cosmogenic nuclide analysis from beneath the modern ice sheet surface. Here we summarize the lessons learned from five field seasons tasked with obtaining bedrock cores from shallow depths (<120 m beneath ice surface) across West Antarctica since 2016. We focus our findings on drilling efforts and technology and geophysical surveys with ground-penetrating radar. Shallow subglacial drilling provides a high risk, high reward means to test for past instabilities of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we highlight key challenges and solutions to increase the likelihood of success for future subglacial drilling efforts in polar regions.

Economists have rightly observed that labour commodification is one of the defining characteristics of the market capitalist mode. In this contribution, however, we contend that while a traditional macroeconomic perspective goes some way towards explaining the nature of the employment relationship, it fails to acknowledge that commodification is a necessary but not sufficient condition for labour utilisation. Viewed through the lens of organisation theory, the main employer agenda regarding labour utilisation is that of ‘human resource’ objectification, rather than market commodification. We seek to demonstrate this by examining how, under contemporary ‘human resource management’ (HRM), labour management theory and practice have developed into a sophisticated project designed to psychologise the employee subject into a resource object. In line with objectification, it is a project through which management seek to render human capabilities, attitudes and emotions — the basis of the worker's status as a social and organisational subject — classifiable, measurable and, hence, more manipulable.

This article compares the productivity and employment performance of the Australian and Irish economies over the 1990s, with particular emphasis on the different approaches to the role of information and communications technologies (ICT). Whereas Australia’s performance is characterised by the application and diffusion of ICT across a number of sectors, with indirect productivity and employment effects, Ireland has become a major producer of ICT products and services in its own right. The article traces the implications of these approaches for the pattern of growth and employment in both economies and also indicates their limitations. Ireland’s approach is limited by dependence on foreign investment, embodying externally generated technologies, though this is now being addressed by a policy interest in R&D support and the development of industry clusters and networks. On the other hand, Australia faces growing and possibly unsustainable deficits in its current account, driven by imports of knowledge-intensive goods and services, notwithstanding recent improvements in the terms of trade associated with higher prices for primary commodity exports.

Adoption of cover crops in arid agroecosystems has been slow due to concerns regarding limited water resources and possible soil moisture depletion. In irrigated organic systems, potential ecosystem services from cover crops also must be considered in light of the concerns for water conservation. A constructive balance could be achieved with fall-sown small grain cover crops; however, their impacts on irrigated organic systems are poorly understood. Our first objective was to determine the ability of fall-sown small grains [cereal rye (Secale cereale L), winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) and oat (Avena sativa L.)] to suppress winter weeds in an irrigated, organic transition field in the southwestern USA. Small grains were planted following the legume sesbania (Sesbania exaltata (Raf.) Rydb. ex A.W. Hill) during Fall 2012 and Fall 2013. In Spring 2013 and 2014, weed densities and biomass were determined within each cover crop treatment and compared against unplanted controls. Results indicated that both barley and oat were effective in suppressing winter weeds. Our second objective was to compare weed suppression and soil moisture levels among seven barley varieties developed in the western United States. Barley varieties (‘Arivat’, ‘Hayes Beardless’, ‘P919’, ‘Robust’, ‘UC603’, ‘UC937’, ‘Washford Beardless’) were fall-sown in replicated strip plots in Fall 2016. Weed densities were measured in Spring 2017 and volumetric soil moisture near the soil surface (5.1 cm depth) was measured at time intervals beginning in December 2016 and ending in March 2017. With the exception of ‘UC937’, barley varieties caused marked reductions in weed density in comparison with the unplanted control. Soil moisture content for the unplanted control was consistently lower than soil moisture contents for barley plots. Barley variety did not influence volumetric soil moisture. During the 2017–2018 growing season, we re-examined three barley varieties considered most amenable to the cropping system requirements (‘Robust’, ‘UC603’, ‘P919’), and these varieties were again found to support few weeds (≤ 5.0 weeds m−2). We conclude that several organically certified barley varieties could fill the need for a ‘non-thirsty’ cover crop that suppresses winter weeds in irrigated organic systems in the southwestern United States.

Biomarkers may be useful endophenotypes for genetic studies if they share genetic sources of variation with the outcome, for example, with all-cause mortality. Australian adult study participants who had reported their parental survival information were included in the study: 14,169 participants had polygenic risk scores (PRS) from genotyping and up to 13,365 had biomarker results. We assessed associations between participants’ biomarker results and parental survival, and between biomarker results and eight parental survival PRS at varying p-value cut-offs. Survival in parents was associated with participants’ serum bilirubin, C-reactive protein, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides and uric acid, and with LDL cholesterol for participants’ fathers but not for their mothers. PRS for all-cause mortality were associated with liver function tests (alkaline phosphatase, butyrylcholinesterase, gamma-glutamyl transferase), metabolic tests (LDL and HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, uric acid), and acute-phase reactants (C-reactive protein, globulins). Association between offspring biomarker results and parental survival demonstrates the existence of familial effects common to both, while associations between biomarker results and PRS for mortality favor at least a partial genetic cause of this covariation. Identification of genetic loci affecting mortality-associated biomarkers offers a route to the identification of additional loci affecting mortality.

ABSTRACT IMPACT: Current practice guidelines offer a variety of treatment options for sternal reconstruction but complications and infections remain a serious surgical problem. This work seeks to provide a comprehensive picture of the com-morbidities and reconstructive methods that lead to success and improve patient outcomes. OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Patients that undergo cardiac surgery via the median sternotomy approach are at risk of wound complications that require repair. We seek to evaluate how outcomes of sternal reconstruction are influenced by patient comorbidities, flap usage and internal mammary artery grafts and methods of sternal closure. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We identified patients between 2005 and 2020 who underwent sternotomy followed by debridement and flap coverage at our institution. Comorbidities, method of reconstruction, demographic data, surgical history, and other factors pertaining to mortality and morbidity were collected. The data will then be analyzed to identify population characteristics using logistic regression variables to determine univariate and adjusted multivariable measures of association with mortality. We present the pre-liminary data analyzed using chi-square and one-way anova in R. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: In this study we present a preliminary characterization of one institution’s sternal reconstruction patient outcomes with a variety of reconstruction methods including pectoralis advancement flaps, omental flaps and latissumus dorsi flaps. Notable preoperative comorbidities include 50% of patients > age 60, 18% with diabetes mellitus, 18 % with diagnosed hypertension, 18% with COPD, and 9% with a smoking history DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF FINDINGS: In an evolving cardiothoracic landscape, clinical characteristics of patients being treated for sternal reconstructive surgery present a moving target. Understanding current risk factors, preoperative management and timing for aggressive surgical treatment offers an opportunity to update treatment protocol and maximize successful outcomes.

Mortality risk is known to be associated with many physiological or biochemical risk factors, and polygenic risk scores (PRSs) may offer an additional or alternative approach to risk stratification. We have compared the predictive value of common biochemical tests, PRSs and information on parental survival in a cohort of twins and their families. Common biochemical test results were available for up to 13,365 apparently healthy men and women, aged 17−93 years (mean 49.0, standard deviation [SD] 13.7) at blood collection. PRSs for longevity were available for 14,169 study participants and reported parental survival for 25,784 participants. A search for information on date and cause of death was conducted through the Australian National Death Index, with median follow-up of 11.3 years. Cox regression was used to evaluate associations with mortality from all causes, cancers, cardiovascular diseases and other causes. Linear relationships with all-cause mortality were strongest for C-reactive protein, gamma-glutamyl transferase, glucose and alkaline phosphatase, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.16 (95% CI [1.07, 1.24]), 1.15 (95% CI 1.04–1.21), 1.13 (95% CI [1.08, 1.19]) and 1.11 (95% CI [1.05, 1.88]) per SD difference, respectively. Significant nonlinear effects were found for urea, uric acid and butyrylcholinesterase. Lipid risk factors were not statistically significant for mortality in our cohort. Family history and PRS showed weaker but significant associations with survival, with HR in the range 1.05 to 1.09 per SD difference. In conclusion, biochemical tests currently predict long-term mortality more strongly than genetic scores based on genotyping or on reported parental survival.

Impairment in reciprocal social behavior (RSB), an essential component of early social competence, clinically defines autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, the behavioral and genetic architecture of RSB in toddlerhood, when ASD first emerges, has not been fully characterized. We analyzed data from a quantitative video-referenced rating of RSB (vrRSB) in two toddler samples: a community-based volunteer research registry (n = 1,563) and an ethnically diverse, longitudinal twin sample ascertained from two state birth registries (n = 714). Variation in RSB was continuously distributed, temporally stable, significantly associated with ASD risk at age 18 months, and only modestly explained by sociodemographic and medical factors (r2 = 9.4%). Five latent RSB factors were identified and corresponded to aspects of social communication or restricted repetitive behaviors, the two core ASD symptom domains. Quantitative genetic analyses indicated substantial heritability for all factors at age 24 months (h2 ≥ .61). Genetic influences strongly overlapped across all factors, with a social motivation factor showing evidence of newly-emerging genetic influences between the ages of 18 and 24 months. RSB constitutes a heritable, trait-like competency whose factorial and genetic structure is generalized across diverse populations, demonstrating its role as an early, enduring dimension of inherited variation in human social behavior. Substantially overlapping RSB domains, measurable when core ASD features arise and consolidate, may serve as markers of specific pathways to autism and anchors to inform determinants of autism's heterogeneity.

Background: The association between antimicrobial use (AMU) and emergence of antimicrobial resistance is well documented. The Canadian Nosocomial Infection Surveillance Program (CNISP) has conducted sentinel surveillance of AMU at participating Canadian hospitals since 2009 resulting in the largest pan-Canadian hospital database of dispensed antimicrobials. Objectives: Describe interhospital variability of AMU across Canada. Methods: Hospitals submit annual AMU data based on patient days (PD). Antimicrobials were measured in defined daily doses (DDD) for adults using the WHO Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) system. The AMU data among pediatric patients have been available since 2017 using days of therapy (DOT). Surveillance includes systemic antibacterial agents (J01 ATC codes), oral metronidazole, and oral vancomycin. AMU was assessed using quintiles, interquartile ranges (IQR), and relative IQRs (upper- and lower-quartile values divided by the median). Results: Between 2009 and 2018, 20–26 hospitals participated in adult surveillance each year (35 teaching hospitals and 3 nonteaching hospitals participated in ≥1 year). Over this period, overall AMU decreased by 13% at participating adult hospitals from 645 to 560 DDD per 1,000 PD. AMU varied substantially between hospitals, but this variability decreased over time (Fig. 1). In 2009, the IQRs for overall AMU spanned 309 DDD per 1,000 PD, and in 2018 it spanned only 103 DDD per 1,000 PD. This decrease in variability was due to large decreases in use among hospitals with high use in 2009–2010. Among hospitals in the highest use quintile in 2009–2010, AMU decreased, on average, 44 DDD per 1,000 PD each year. Among hospitals in the lowest use quintile in 2009–2010, AMU increased, on average, 6 DDD per 1,000 PD each year. In 2018, antibiotics with the largest absolute IQR variability were cefazolin (61–113 DDD per 1,000 PD), piperacillin-tazobactam (32–64 DDD per 1,000 PD), and vancomycin (24–49 DDD per 1,000 PD). Among antibiotics with ≥1 DDD per 1,000 PD, antibiotics with the largest relative IQR variability were tobramycin (0.3–6 DDD per 1,000 PD), cefadroxil (0.08–9 DDD per 1,000 PD), and linezolid (0.2–3 DDD per 1,000 PD). In 2018, the IQR for overall pediatric AMU (n = 7 teaching hospitals) was 426–581 DOT per 1,000 PD. Antibiotics with the largest IQRs were vancomycin (0.6–58 DOT per 1,000 PD), cefazolin (33–88 DOT per 1,000 PD), and tobramycin (3–57 DOT per 1,000 PD). Among antibiotics with ≥1 DOT per 1,000 PD in 2018, antibiotics with the largest relative IQRs were tobramycin (3–57 DOT per 1,000 PD), cefuroxime (1–6 DOT per 1,000 PD), and amoxicillin (8–42 DOT per 1,000 PD). Conclusions: There is wide variation in overall antibiotic use across hospitals. Variation between AMU at adult hospitals has decreased between 2009 and 2018; in 2018, antibiotics with the largest IQRs were cefazolin and piperacillin-tazobactam. Benchmarking AMU is crucial for informing antimicrobial stewardship efforts.

Funding: CNISP is funded by the Public Health Agency of Canada.

Disclosures: Allison McGeer reports funds to her institution from Pfizer and Merck for projects for which she is the principal investigator. She also reports consulting fees from Sanofi-Pasteur, Sunovion, GSK, Pfizer, and Cidara.