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Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024
- Mercedes Bustamante, Joyashree Roy, Daniel Ospina, Ploy Achakulwisut, Anubha Aggarwal, Ana Bastos, Wendy Broadgate, Josep G. Canadell, Edward R. Carr, Deliang Chen, Helen A. Cleugh, Kristie L. Ebi, Clea Edwards, Carol Farbotko, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Thomas L. Frölicher, Sabine Fuss, Oliver Geden, Nicolas Gruber, Luke J. Harrington, Judith Hauck, Zeke Hausfather, Sophie Hebden, Aniek Hebinck, Saleemul Huq, Matthias Huss, M. Laurice P. Jamero, Sirkku Juhola, Nilushi Kumarasinghe, Shuaib Lwasa, Bishawjit Mallick, Maria Martin, Steven McGreevy, Paula Mirazo, Aditi Mukherji, Greg Muttitt, Gregory F. Nemet, David Obura, Chukwumerije Okereke, Tom Oliver, Ben Orlove, Nadia S. Ouedraogo, Prabir K. Patra, Mark Pelling, Laura M. Pereira, Åsa Persson, Julia Pongratz, Anjal Prakash, Anja Rammig, Colin Raymond, Aaron Redman, Cristobal Reveco, Johan Rockström, Regina Rodrigues, David R. Rounce, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Peter Schlosser, Odirilwe Selomane, Gregor Semieniuk, Yunne-Jai Shin, Tasneem A. Siddiqui, Vartika Singh, Giles B. Sioen, Youba Sokona, Detlef Stammer, Norman J. Steinert, Sunhee Suk, Rowan Sutton, Lisa Thalheimer, Vikki Thompson, Gregory Trencher, Kees van der Geest, Saskia E. Werners, Thea Wübbelmann, Nico Wunderling, Jiabo Yin, Kirsten Zickfeld, Jakob Zscheischler
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Accepted manuscript
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 01 December 2023, pp. 1-58
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Ten new insights in climate science 2022
- Maria A. Martin, Emmanuel A. Boakye, Emily Boyd, Wendy Broadgate, Mercedes Bustamante, Josep G. Canadell, Edward R. Carr, Eric K. Chu, Helen Cleugh, Szilvia Csevár, Marwa Daoudy, Ariane de Bremond, Meghnath Dhimal, Kristie L. Ebi, Clea Edwards, Sabine Fuss, Martin P. Girardin, Bruce Glavovic, Sophie Hebden, Marina Hirota, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Saleemul Huq, Karin Ingold, Ola M. Johannessen, Yasuko Kameyama, Nilushi Kumarasinghe, Gaby S. Langendijk, Tabea Lissner, Shuaib Lwasa, Catherine Machalaba, Aaron Maltais, Manu V. Mathai, Cheikh Mbow, Karen E. McNamara, Aditi Mukherji, Virginia Murray, Jaroslav Mysiak, Chukwumerije Okereke, Daniel Ospina, Friederike Otto, Anjal Prakash, Juan M. Pulhin, Emmanuel Raju, Aaron Redman, Kanta K. Rigaud, Johan Rockström, Joyashree Roy, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Peter Schlosser, Karsten A. Schulz, Kim Schumacher, Luana Schwarz, Murray Scown, Barbora Šedová, Tasneem A. Siddiqui, Chandni Singh, Giles B. Sioen, Detlef Stammer, Norman J. Steinert, Sunhee Suk, Rowan Sutton, Lisa Thalheimer, Maarten van Aalst, Kees van der Geest, Zhirong Jerry Zhao
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Volume 5 / 2022
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 10 November 2022, e20
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Non-technical summary
We summarize what we assess as the past year's most important findings within climate change research: limits to adaptation, vulnerability hotspots, new threats coming from the climate–health nexus, climate (im)mobility and security, sustainable practices for land use and finance, losses and damages, inclusive societal climate decisions and ways to overcome structural barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
Technical summaryWe synthesize 10 topics within climate research where there have been significant advances or emerging scientific consensus since January 2021. The selection of these insights was based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings concern: (1) new aspects of soft and hard limits to adaptation; (2) the emergence of regional vulnerability hotspots from climate impacts and human vulnerability; (3) new threats on the climate–health horizon – some involving plants and animals; (4) climate (im)mobility and the need for anticipatory action; (5) security and climate; (6) sustainable land management as a prerequisite to land-based solutions; (7) sustainable finance practices in the private sector and the need for political guidance; (8) the urgent planetary imperative for addressing losses and damages; (9) inclusive societal choices for climate-resilient development and (10) how to overcome barriers to accelerate mitigation and limit global warming to below 2°C.
Social media summaryScience has evidence on barriers to mitigation and how to overcome them to avoid limits to adaptation across multiple fields.
Ten new insights in climate science 2020 – a horizon scan
- Erik Pihl, Eva Alfredsson, Magnus Bengtsson, Kathryn J. Bowen, Vanesa Cástan Broto, Kuei Tien Chou, Helen Cleugh, Kristie Ebi, Clea M. Edwards, Eleanor Fisher, Pierre Friedlingstein, Alex Godoy-Faúndez, Mukesh Gupta, Alexandra R. Harrington, Katie Hayes, Bronwyn M. Hayward, Sophie R. Hebden, Thomas Hickmann, Gustaf Hugelius, Tatiana Ilyina, Robert B. Jackson, Trevor F. Keenan, Ria A. Lambino, Sebastian Leuzinger, Mikael Malmaeus, Robert I. McDonald, Celia McMichael, Clark A. Miller, Matteo Muratori, Nidhi Nagabhatla, Harini Nagendra, Cristian Passarello, Josep Penuelas, Julia Pongratz, Johan Rockström, Patricia Romero-Lankao, Joyashree Roy, Adam A. Scaife, Peter Schlosser, Edward Schuur, Michelle Scobie, Steven C. Sherwood, Giles B. Sioen, Jakob Skovgaard, Edgardo A. Sobenes Obregon, Sebastian Sonntag, Joachim H. Spangenberg, Otto Spijkers, Leena Srivastava, Detlef B. Stammer, Pedro H. C. Torres, Merritt R. Turetsky, Anna M. Ukkola, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Christina Voigt, Chadia Wannous, Mark D. Zelinka
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- Journal:
- Global Sustainability / Volume 4 / 2021
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 27 January 2021, e5
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Non-technical summary
We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments.
Technical summaryA synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost–benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- and long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations.
Social media summaryStronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
Summary for Policy Makers
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- By Thomas B. Johansson, Lund University, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay), Luis Gomez-Echeverri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Rangan Banerjee, Indian Institute of Technology, Sally M. Benson, Stanford University, Daniel H. Bouille, Bariloche Foundation, Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Aleh Cherp, Central European University, Suani T. Coelho, National Reference Center on Biomass, University of São Paulo, Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Maria Josefina Figueroa, Technical University, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Kebin He, Tsinghua University, Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Stephen Karekezi, AFREPREN/FWD, Eric D. Larson, Princeton University and Climate Central, Zheng Li, Tsinghua University, Susan McDade, United Nations Development Programme), Lynn K. Mytelka, United Nations University-MERIT, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm University, Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Joyashree Roy, Jadavpur University, Robert N. Schock, World Energy Council, UK and Center for Global Security Research, Ralph Sims, Massey University, Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Wim C. Turkenburg, Utrecht University, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Frank von Hippel, Princeton University, Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Book:
- Global Energy Assessment
- Published online:
- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 3-30
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Summary
Introduction
Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges.
A major transformation is therefore required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic future consequences for human and planetary systems. The Global Energy Assessment (GEA) demonstrates that energy system change is the key for addressing and resolving these challenges. The GEA identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits. Their successful implementation requires determined, sustained and immediate action.
Transformative change in the energy system may not be internally generated; due to institutional inertia, incumbency and lack of capacity and agility of existing organizations to respond effectively to changing conditions. In such situations clear and consistent external policy signals may be required to initiate and sustain the transformative change needed to meet the sustainability challenges of the 21st century.
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity onto an explosive development path, whereby, reliance on muscle power and traditional biomass was replaced mostly by fossil fuels. In 2005, some 78% of global energy was based on fossil energy sources that provided abundant and ever cheaper energy services to more than half the people in the world.
Chapter 21 - Lifestyles, Well-Being and Energy
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- By Joyashree Roy, Jadavpur University, Anne-Maree Dowd, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Adrian Muller, University of Zurich & Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Shamik Pal, Institute of Engineering & Management, Ndola Prata, University of California, Sylvie Lemmet, United Nations Environment Programme
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Global Energy Assessment
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- 05 September 2012
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- 27 August 2012, pp 1527-1548
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Summary
Executive Summary
One of the objectives of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA) is to assess the means through which the potential negative economic, social and environmental impacts from energy use can be mitigated or eliminated, either by increasing the efficiency of energy use or by switching to primary energy sources and carriers. A large set of factors influence ultimate energy use beyond those related to income and affluence. These include non-economic and nontechnological drivers such as behavior, lifestyle, culture, religion and the desire for improved well-being.
This chapter focuses on these underlying drivers and explores how they could influence energy use and choice of energy sources while maintaining desired levels of affluence or income. It reviews the factors that determine how socio-economic indicators of affluence and other non-technological drivers may translate into demand for energy services (for definition of energy services, see Chapter 1) and at the interventions, policies and measures (such as taxes, infrastructure, building codes, and access to information) that could modify or change lifestyles and preferences.
In addition to the consumption of goods and services and their quality, the chapter also focuses on two elements of lifestyle choices that have significant implications for energy use: diet and mobility (household energy use, another key element, is discussed in Chapter 10 while transport is discussed in Chapter 9).
Technical Summary
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- By Thomas B. Johansson, Lund University, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Vienna University of Technology, Anand Patwardhan, Indian Institute of Technology, Luis Gomez-Echeverri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Doug J. Arent, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Rangan Banerjee, Indian Institute of Technology, Sally M. Benson, Stanford University, Daniel H. Bouille, Bariloche Foundation, Abeeku Brew-Hammond, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Aleh Cherp, Central European University, Suani T. Coelho, National Reference Center on Biomass, University of São Paulo, Lisa Emberson, Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, Maria Josefina Figueroa, Technical University, Arnulf Grubler, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Yale University, Kebin He, Tsinghua University, Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Suzana Kahn Ribeiro, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Stephen Karekezi, AFREPREN/FWD, Eric D. Larson, Princeton University and Climate Central, Zheng Li, Tsinghua University, Susan McDade, United Nations Development Programme, Lynn K. Mytelka, United Nations University-MERIT, Shonali Pachauri, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Keywan Riahi, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Johan Rockström, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm University, Hans-Holger Rogner, International Atomic Energy Agency, Joyashree Roy, Jadavpur University, Robert N. Schock, World Energy Council, UK and Center for Global Security Research, Ralph Sims, Massey University, Kirk R. Smith, University of California, Wim C. Turkenburg, Utrecht University, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Central European University, Frank von Hippel, Princeton University, Kurt Yeager, Electric Power Research Institute and Galvin Electricity Initiative
- Global Energy Assessment Writing Team
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- Global Energy Assessment
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- 05 September 2012
- Print publication:
- 27 August 2012, pp 31-94
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Summary
Introduction
Energy is essential for human development and energy systems are a crucial entry point for addressing the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, including sustainable economic, and social development, poverty eradication, adequate food production and food security, health for all, climate protection, conservation of ecosystems, peace, and security. Yet, more than a decade into the 21st century, current energy systems do not meet these challenges.
In this context, two considerations are important. The first is the capacity and agility of the players within the energy system to seize opportunities in response to these challenges. The second is the response capacity of the energy system itself, as the investments are long-term and tend to follow standard financial patterns, mainly avoiding risks and price instabilities. This traditional approach does not embrace the transformation needed to respond properly to the economic, environmental, and social sustainability challenges of the 21st century.
A major transformation is required to address these challenges and to avoid potentially catastrophic consequences for human and planetary systems. The GEA identifies strategies that could help resolve the multiple challenges simultaneously and bring multiple benefits. Their successful implementation requires determined, sustained, and immediate action.
The industrial revolution catapulted humanity onto an explosive development path, whereby reliance on muscle power and traditional biomass was replaced mostly by fossil fuels. In 2005, approximately 78% of global energy was based on fossil energy sources that provided abundant and ever cheaper energy services to more than half the world's population.
Chapter 9 - Renewable Energy in the Context of Sustainable Development
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- By Jayant Sathaye, Oswaldo Lucon, Atiq Rahman, John Christensen, Fatima Denton, Junichi Fujino, Garvin Heath, Monirul Mirza, Hugh Rudnick, August Schlaepfer, Andrey Shmakin, Gerhard Angerer, Christian Bauer, Morgan Bazilian, Robert Brecha, Peter Burgherr, Leon Clarke, Felix Creutzig, James Edmonds, Christian Hagelüken, Gerrit Hansen, Nathan Hultman, Michael Jakob, Susanne Kadner, Manfred Lenzen, Jordan Macknick, Eric Masanet, Yu Nagai, Anne Olhoff, Karen Olsen, Michael Pahle, Ari Rabl, Richard Richels, Joyashree Roy, Tormod Schei, Christoph von Stechow, Jan Steckel, Ethan Warner, Tom Wilbanks, Yimin Zhang, Volodymyr Demkine, Ismail Elgizouli, Jeffrey Logan, Susanne Kadner
- Edited by Ottmar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs-Madruga, Youba Sokona, Kristin Seyboth, Susanne Kadner, Timm Zwickel, Patrick Eickemeier, Gerrit Hansen, Steffen Schlömer, Christoph von Stechow, Patrick Matschoss
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- Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
- Published online:
- 05 December 2011
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- 21 November 2011, pp 707-790
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Summary
Executive Summary
Historically, economic development has been strongly correlated with increasing energy use and growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Renewable energy (RE) can help decouple that correlation, contributing to sustainable development (SD). In addition, RE offers the opportunity to improve access to modern energy services for the poorest members of society, which is crucial for the achievement of any single of the eight Millennium Development Goals.
Theoretical concepts of SD can provide useful frameworks to assess the interactions between SD and RE. SD addresses concerns about relationships between human society and nature. Traditionally, SD has been framed in the three-pillar model—Economy, Ecology, and Society—allowing a schematic categorization of development goals, with the three pillars being interdependent and mutually reinforcing. Within another conceptual framework, SD can be oriented along a continuum between the two paradigms of weak sustainability and strong sustainability. The two paradigms differ in assumptions about the substitutability of natural and human-made capital. RE can contribute to the development goals of the three-pillar model and can be assessed in terms of both weak and strong SD, since RE utilization is defined as sustaining natural capital as long as its resource use does not reduce the potential for future harvest.