We document a novel strategic motive for family business groups to utilize their internal capital markets (ICMs) during financial crises. We find that crisis-period group ICM activity is targeted toward exerting product market dominance over standalone rivals. Groups make significant post-crisis gains in market share that are concentrated among affiliates (and industry segments within affiliates) operating in highly competitive product markets, where capturing such gains is difficult in normal times. These patterns are observed only in emerging markets, suggesting that ICMs enable groups to exploit crises to realize long-term competitive advantages only when rivals face chronic financing frictions.

Calcifying pseudoneoplasm of the neuraxis (CAPNON) is a rare tumefactive lesion with unclear pathogenesis. It is diagnosed by pathological findings of the typical histological features that include granular amorphous cores with palisading spindle to epithelioid cells, variable fibrous stroma, foreign-body reaction with giant cells, and calcification/ossification occasionally with psammoma bodies. However, its histopathology may be variable and currently immunohistochemistry plays a limited role in its diagnosis and understanding the pathogenesis. In this study, we examined 6 cases of CAPNONs including 3 intracranial and 3 spinal epidural lesions (age range: 59–69 years; 3 males and 3 females). Immunohistochemistry revealed that all CAPNON cores contain abundant positive deposits of neurofilament protein (NFP), which was supported by electron microscopy finding of filaments (8–13 nm in diameter). In comparison, no NFP positivity was found in 5 psammomatous/metaplastic meningiomas or 7 intervertebral tissue lesions with calcification/ossification. In addition, CAPNON cellular areas showed variable numbers of CD8+ cytotoxic T-cells with less CD4+ T-cells and a decreased ratio of CD4/CD8+ cells, versus the intervertebral tissue lesions without CD8+ or CD4+ cells. Our findings suggest that NFP may be a principal constituent of CAPNONs, and thus involved in the pathogenesis of CAPNON. Given the decreased CD4/CD8 ratio, the pathogenic process of CAPNON is possibly immune- mediated.

Cyber Operational Risk: Cyber risk is routinely cited as one of the most important sources of operational risks facing organisations today, in various publications and surveys. Further, in recent years, cyber risk has entered the public conscience through highly publicised events involving affected UK organisations such as TalkTalk, Morrisons and the NHS. Regulators and legislators are increasing their focus on this topic, with General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”) a notable example of this. Risk actuaries and other risk management professionals at insurance companies therefore need to have a robust assessment of the potential losses stemming from cyber risk that their organisations may face. They should be able to do this as part of an overall risk management framework and be able to demonstrate this to stakeholders such as regulators and shareholders. Given that cyber risks are still very much new territory for insurers and there is no commonly accepted practice, this paper describes a proposed framework in which to perform such an assessment. As part of this, we leverage two existing frameworks – the Chief Risk Officer (“CRO”) Forum cyber incident taxonomy, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (“NIST”) framework – to describe the taxonomy of a cyber incident, and the relevant cyber security and risk mitigation items for the incident in question, respectively.Summary of Results: Three detailed scenarios have been investigated by the working party:

• ∙ Employee leaks data at a general (non-life) insurer: Internal attack through social engineering, causing large compensation costs and regulatory fines, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £210.5m (c. 2% of annual revenue).

• ∙ Cyber extortion at a life insurer: External attack through social engineering, causing large business interruption and reputational damage, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £179.5m (c. 6% of annual revenue).

• ∙ Motor insurer telematics device hack: External attack through software vulnerabilities, causing large remediation / device replacement costs, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £70.0m (c. 18% of annual revenue).

• ∙ While the presented scenarios are deemed material at this point in time, the threat landscape moves fast and could render specific narratives and calibrations obsolete within a short-time frame.

• ∙ There is a lack of historical data to base certain scenarios on and therefore a high level of subjectivity is used to calibrate them.

• ∙ No attempt has been made to make an allowance for seasonality of renewals (a cyber event coinciding with peak renewal season could exacerbate cost impacts)

• ∙ No consideration has been given to the impact of the event on the share price of the company.

• ∙ Correlation with other risk types has not been explicitly considered.

In Singapore, influenza vaccination is recommended for persons at higher risk of complications of seasonal influenza, including those with chronic medical conditions and the elderly (individuals aged ⩾65 years). We investigated the factors associated with influenza vaccine uptake based on a nationally representative sample of community-dwelling adults aged >50 years. The data for this study were obtained from the National Health Surveillance Survey (NHSS) 2013. The association between influenza vaccine uptake and socio-demographic and health-related variables was analysed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. Of 3700 respondents aged ⩾50 years in the NHSS, 15·2% had received seasonal influenza vaccination in the past year. Older age, single marital status and economic inactivity were the socio-demographic variables independently associated with vaccine uptake. Health-related factors which were predictive of influenza vaccine uptake were sufficient total physical activity, better self-rated health, having at least one medical condition at risk of influenza complications and a regular family doctor/general practitioner. Influenza vaccine uptake in community-dwelling older adults was low. Our findings are of relevance in the formulation of public health policies and targeted health promotion strategies to increase vaccine uptake in this population group.

An outbreak of gastroenteritis affected 453 attendees (attack rate 28·5%) of six separate events held at a hotel in Singapore. Active case detection, case-control studies, hygiene inspections and microbial analysis of food, environmental and stool samples were conducted to determine the aetiology of the outbreak and the modes of transmission. The only commonality was the food, crockery and cutlery provided and/or handled by the hotel's Chinese banquet kitchen. Stool specimens from 34 cases and 15 food handlers were positive for norovirus genogroup II. The putative index case was one of eight norovirus-positive food handlers who had worked while they were symptomatic. Several food samples and remnants tested positive for Escherichia coli or high faecal coliforms, aerobic plate counts and/or total coliforms, indicating poor food hygiene. This large common-source outbreak of norovirus gastroenteritis was caused by the consumption of contaminated food and/or contact with contaminated crockery or cutlery provided or handled by the hotel's Chinese banquet kitchen.

Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) and enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) were the major enteroviruses causing nationwide hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in Singapore in the last decade. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of these enteroviruses to obtain a better understanding of their transmission dynamics. We merged records of cases from HFMD outbreaks reported between 2007 and 2012 with laboratory results from virological surveillance. R0 was estimated based on the cumulative number of reported cases in the initial growth phase of each outbreak associated with the particular enterovirus type. A total of 33 HFMD outbreaks were selected based on the inclusion criteria specified for our study, of which five were associated with CV-A6, 13 with CV-A16, and 15 with EV-A71. The median R0 was estimated to be 5·04 [interquartile range (IQR) 3·57–5·16] for CV-A6, 2·42 (IQR 1·85–3·36) for CV-A16, and 3·50 (IQR 2·36–4·53) for EV-A71. R0 was not significantly associated with number of infected children (P = 0·86), number of exposed children (P = 0·94), and duration of the outbreak (P = 0·05). These enterovirus-specific R0 estimates will be helpful in providing insights into the potential growth of future HFMD epidemics and outbreaks for timely implementation of disease control measures, together with disease dynamics such as severity of the cases.

We enhance the theoretical precision of cultural intelligence (CQ: capability to function effectively in culturally diverse settings) by developing and testing a model that posits differential relationships between the four CQ, dimensions (metacognitive, cognitive, motivational and behavioural) and three intercultural effectiveness outcomes (cultural judgment and decision making, cultural adaptation and task performance in culturally diverse settings). Before testing the model, we describe development and cross-validation (N = 1,360) of the multidimensional cultural intelligence scale (CQS) across samples, time and country. We then describe three substantive studies (N = 794) in field and educational development settings across two national contexts, the USA and Singapore. The results demonstrate a consistent pattern of relationships where metacognitive CQ and cognitive CQ predicted cultural judgment and decision making; motivational CQ and behavioural CQ predicted cultural adaptation; and metacognitive CQ and behavioural CQ predicted task performance. We discuss theoretical and practical implications of our model and findings.

To assess the impact of past dengue epidemics in Singapore, we undertook a national seroepidemiological study to determine the prevalence of past dengue virus (DENV) infection in the adult population in 2010 and make comparisons with the seroprevalence in 2004. The study involved residual sera from 3293 adults aged 18–79 years who participated in a national health survey in 2010. The overall prevalence of anti-DENV IgG antibodies was 56·8% (95% confidence interval 55·1–58·5) in 2010. The seroprevalence increased significantly with age. Males had significantly higher seroprevalence than females (61·5% vs. 53·2%). Among the three major ethnic groups, Malays had the lowest seroprevalence (50·2%) compared to Chinese (57·0%) and Indians (62·0%). The age-standardized seroprevalence in adults was significantly lower in 2010 (54·4%) compared to 2004 (63·1%). Older age, male gender, Indian ethnicity, permanent residency and being home-bound were independent risk factors significantly associated with seropositivity. About 43% of the Singapore adult resident population remain susceptible to DENV infection as a result of the successful implementation of a comprehensive nationwide Aedes surveillance and control programme since the 1970s. Vector suppression and concerted efforts of all stakeholders in the community remain the key strategy in the prevention and control of dengue.

Steady water infiltration in homogeneous soils is governed by the Richards equation. This equation can be studied more conveniently by transforming to a type of Helmholtz equation. In this study, a dual-reciprocity boundary element method (DRBEM) is employed to solve the Helmholtz equation numerically. Using the solutions obtained, numerical values of the suction potential are then computed. The proposed method is tested on problems involving infiltration from different types of periodic channels in a homogeneous soil. Moreover, the method is also examined using infiltration from periodic trapezoidal channels in three different types of homogeneous soil.

Information on the incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) is essential for models of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening programmes. We developed two independent estimates of CT incidence in women in England: one based on an incidence study, with estimates ‘recalibrated’ to the general population using data on setting-specific relative risks, and allowing for clearance and re-infection during follow-up; the second based on UK prevalence data, and information on the duration of CT infection. The consistency of independent sources of data on incidence, prevalence and duration, validates estimates of these parameters. Pooled estimates of the annual incidence rate in women aged 16–24 and 16–44 years for 2001–2005 using all these data were 0·05 [95% credible interval (CrI) 0·035–0·071] and 0·021 (95% CrI 0·015–0·028), respectively. Although, the estimates apply to England, similar methods could be used in other countries. The methods could be extended to dynamic models to synthesize, and assess the consistency of data on contact and transmission rates.

X-ray and extreme ultraviolet emission from galaxy clusters can be interpreted as thermal emission from a hot plasma gravitationally bound to the cluster and constituting a significant amount of the mass of the cluster. The origin of this plasma and its thermal energy content can be linked to the formation process through the theory of self-organization of these structures.

As a major foodborne pathogen, Campylobacter is frequently isolated from food sources of animal origin. In contrast, human Campylobacter illness is relatively rare, but has a considerable health burden due to acute enteric illness as well as severe sequelae. To study silent transmission, serum antibodies can be used as biomarkers to estimate seroconversion rates, as a proxy for infection pressure. This novel approach to serology shows that infections are much more common than disease, possibly because most infections remain asymptomatic. This study used antibody titres measured in serum samples collected from healthy subjects selected randomly in the general population from several countries in the European Union (EU). Estimates of seroconversion rates to Campylobacter were calculated for seven countries: Romania, Poland, Italy, France, Finland, Denmark and The Netherlands. Results indicate high infection pressures in all these countries, slightly increasing in Eastern EU countries. Of these countries, the differences in rates of notified illnesses are much greater, with low numbers in France and Poland, possibly indicating lower probability of detection due to differences in the notification systems, but in the latter case it cannot be excluded that more frequent exposure confers better protection due to acquired immunity.

We undertook a national paediatric seroprevalence survey of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) in Singapore to assess the impact of the national childhood immunization programme against these three diseases after introduction of the trivalent MMR vaccine in 1990. The survey involved 1200 residual sera of Singapore residents aged 1–17 years collected from two hospitals between 2008 and 2010. The overall prevalence of antibodies against measles, mumps and rubella was 83·1% [95% confidence interval (CI) 80·9–85·1], 71·8% (95% CI 69·1–74·2) and 88·5% (95% CI 86·6–90·2), respectively. For all three diseases, the lowest prevalence was in children aged 1 year (47·8–62·3%). The seroprevalence of the vaccinated children declined over time. The national MMR immunization programme is effective in raising the herd immunity of the childhood population, although certain age groups are more susceptible to infection, in particular, those who are not eligible for vaccination at age <15 months.

The incidence of Salmonella in tortoises and frogs captured in Istanbul was studied. From 31 out of 40 tortoises (77·5%) and from 16 out of 311 frogs (5·1%) salmonella strains belonging to 18 and 14 serotypes respectively were isolated.

The effect of parallel electron dynamics is incorporated in the study of the Varma mode, which is a flute-like electrostatic ion drift perturbation in an inhomogeneous magnetic field. Starting from the electron and ion continuity equations, an equation for the conservation of the ion magnetic moment, the generalized Ohm's law, and Faraday's and Ampère's laws, we derive a set of four nonlinearly coupled differential equations. The nonlinearities arising from the E × B0 convection of the density and magnetic-moment variations, nonlinear ion polarization drift and Lorentz force, and the coupling of the parallel electron flow to the perturbed magnetic field are included. In the linear limit we find that the Varma mode becomes coupled with the modified-convective-cell and Alfvén modes. The instability of the coupled system is analysed and an expression for the growth rate is obtained. In the nonlinear regime we present the localized dipole vortex solution of the coupled Varma and convective-cell modes as well as the coupled Varma and Alfvén modes. It is found that for the former case the nonlinear structure is a solution of a second-order partial differential equation, whereas for the coupled Varma and inertial Alfvén waves the dipole vortex belongs to a family of fourth-order differential equations. Our results can be useful in understanding the electrostatic and electromagnetic fluctuations in mirror reactors, tokamaks and astrophysical plasmas.