We utilize a novel contrastive genetic-epidemiological method, the Maternal Half-Sibling Families with Discordant Fathers (MHSFDF) design, to examine cross-generational genetic transmission of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and related internalizing major depression (MD), and externalizing disorders: alcohol use disorder (AUD) and drug use disorder (DUD).

Using Swedish national registries, we identified 72,467 maternal half-sibling pairs reared together whose biological fathers were discordant for the diagnoses of PTSD, MD, AUD, and DUD. Offspring selected had to have less than 1 year of contact with their affected fathers. We examined the differences in outcome for within- and cross-disorder risk of diagnosis in the half-siblings with an affected versus unaffected father.

Paternal PTSD increased the risk of PTSD (HR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.05–1.96) and MD (HR: 1.55, CI: 1.28–1.88) in offspring. It did not, however, elevate the risk of externalizing disorders (AUD or DUD). Offspring of fathers with AUD, DUD, or MD had increased risk of PTSD, suggesting sharing of vertically transmitted genetic risk between these disorders. No sex effects were found for any studied diagnosis.

This study is the first to show cross-generation genetic transmission for PTSD using the MHSFDF design. The pattern of cross-disorder genetic risk broadly supported an internalizing versus externalizing disorder split.

Stressful life events (SLEs) increase the risk for subsequent major depression (MD) episodes. Most prior studies of SLEs utilized questionnaires or interview-based assessments. We sought to develop and evaluate an environmental risk score (ERS) for MD from multiple classes of SLEs obtained from national Swedish registries.

We assessed, in the entire adult population of Sweden (n = 7,105,712), the occurrence of 52 categories of SLEs derived from registry information for the 6 months prior to January 9, 2010 and the risk for MD registration over the subsequent 6 months. Weights for our ERS were obtained from a random half of our sample and ERS and its relationship to MD risk was evaluated in the second half.

The ERS was robustly related to risk for subsequent MD episodes. Women were more sensitive to the depressogenic effect of the ERS than men. Those with prior episodes of MD had larger absolute increases in MD risk from our ERS than those without previous episodes. Genetic risk for MD was associated with a greater sensitivity to the depressogenic effects of the ERS. A co-sibling control analysis suggested that most, but not all, of the association between ERS and subsequent risk for MD was causal.

Valid measures of SLEs that predispose to risk for MD can be assessed from high-quality registry data. While not all event categories (e.g. interpersonal or romantic difficulties) can be assessed, this method avoids problems with accurate dating and recall bias and can be performed in very large samples.

We seek to clarify how changes in the prevalence of drug use disorder (DUD) in Sweden in the 1950–1990 birth cohort impact the aggregation and co-aggregation in siblings of DUD and alcohol use disorder (AUD).

We examined risk for DUD and AUD in siblings of 102,624 DUD cases and matched control probands and 123,837 AUD case and matched control probands identified using Swedish registries. Flexible parametric survival models assessed the difference in disorder risk in siblings of case versus control probands.

Over birthyears 1950–1990, rates of DUD increased substantially in the Swedish population. In siblings of DUD cases versus controls, the risk for DUD increased dramatically starting in birthyear 1965 while their risk for AUD fell moderately. A similar, but less pronounced pattern, was seen in the siblings of AUD versus control probands. These differences were much larger in male than in female siblings.

The factors that drove upward population rates of DUD in Sweden (e.g. increased availability, reduced stigma) produced much stronger effects in high-risk subjects (siblings of DUD and AUD probands) than in normal risk groups (siblings of controls), thereby increasing familial aggregation of DUD. However, parallel declines in AUD rates in high-risk versus normal-risk siblings were observed, likely due to ‘competitive effects’ reducing coaggregation of DUD and AUD. Results of genetic studies of substance use disorders can be substantially impacted by changes in availability and stigma of psychoactive substance use and indirectly by ‘competition’ as predicted by behavioral economic models, between abusable substances.

Drug use Disorder (DUD), the risk for which is substantially influenced by both genetic and social factors, is geographically concentrated in high-risk regions. An important step toward understanding this pattern is to examine geographical distributions of the genetic liability to DUD and a key demographic risk factor – social deprivation.

We calculated the mean family genetic risk score (FGRS) for DUD ((FGRSDUD) and social deprivation for each of the 5983 areas Demographic Statistical Areas (DeSO) for all of Sweden and used geospatial techniques to analyze and map these factors.

Using 2018 data, substantial spatial heterogeneity was seen in the distribution of the genetic risk for DUD in Sweden as a whole and in its three major urban centers which was confirmed by hot-spot analyses. Across DeSOs, FGRSDUD and s.d. levels were substantially but imperfectly correlated (r = + 0.63), with more scattering at higher FGRSDUD and s.d. scores. Joint mapping across DeSOs for FGRSDUD and s.d. revealed a diversity of patterns across Sweden. The stability of the distributions of FGRSDUD and s.d. in DeSOs within Sweden over the years 2012–2018 was quite high.

The geographical distribution of the genetic risk to DUD is quite variable in Sweden. DeSO levels of s.d. and FRGSDUD were substantially correlated but also disassociated in a number of regions. The observed patterns were largely consistent with known trends in the human geography of Sweden. This effort lays the groundwork for further studies of the sources of geographic variation in rates of DUD.

Robust clinical indices of etiologic heterogeneity for psychiatric disorders are rare. We investigate whether age at onset (AAO) reflects genetic heterogeneity, utilizing Genetic Risk Ratios (GRR) derived from Family Genetic Risk Scores (FGRS).

We examined, in individuals born in Sweden 1940–2003, whether AAO for five primary disorders -- drug use disorder (DUD), alcohol use disorder (AUD), major depression (MD), bipolar disorder (BD), and schizophrenia (SZ)-- was associated with varying levels of GRRs with a range of informative secondary disorders and traits.

Our disorders displayed a varying pattern of change of GRRs with increasing AAO. At one end was SZ, where all GRRs rose with increasing AAO meaning that SZ became increasing genetically heterogeneous with later AAO. The most balanced disorder was AUD where, with increasing AAO, GRRs rose for AD, BD, and MD and declined for DUD, CB, and ADHD. That is, at young AAO, AUD had high levels of genetic risk for other externalizing disorders while at older AAO, high genetic risk for internalizing disorders were more prominent. MD was at the continuum's other end where all GRRs, except for AD, decreased with higher AAO, meaning that MD became increasingly genetically homogeneous with later AAO.

Genetic heterogeneity was robustly associated with AAO across our five primary disorders with substantial inter-disorder differences in the observed patterns. In particular, young AAO was associated with maximal genetic homogeneity for SZ and DUD while older AAO had greater genetic homogeneity for MD with AUD falling in between.

Shared genetic risk between schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) is well-established, yet the extent to which they share environmental risk factors remains unclear. We compare the associations between environmental exposures during childhood/prior to disorder onset with the risk of developing SCZ and BD.

We conducted a Swedish register-based nested case–control study using 4184 SCZ cases and 18 681 BD cases diagnosed 1988–2013. Cases were matched to five controls by birth year, birth region, and sex. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) for SCZ and BD for each exposure (severe childhood infections, adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), substance use disorders (SUDs), urban birth/longest residence).

All SUD types were associated with very high risk (IRR 4.9–25.5), and all forms of ACEs with higher risk (IRR 1.5–4.3) for both disorders. In the mutually adjusted models, ACEs demonstrated slightly higher risk for BD (SCZ IRR 1.30, 1.19-1.42; BD IRR 1.49, 1.44–1.55), while for SUD, risk was higher for SCZ (SCZ IRR 9.43, 8.15–10.92; BD IRR 5.50, 5.15–5.88). Infections were associated with increased risk of BD (IRR 1.21, 1.17–1.26) but not SCZ. Urban birth and urban longest residence were associated with higher risk of SCZ (IRR 1.19, 1.03–1.37), while only the combination of urban birth and rural longest residence showed higher risk for BD (IRR 1.24, 1.13–1.35).

There were both shared and unique environmental risk factors: SUDs and ACEs were risk factors for both disorders, while infections were more strongly associated with BD and urbanicity with SCZ.

The concept of schizotypal personality disorder (SPD) emerged from observations of personality characteristics common in relatives of schizophrenic patients. While often studied in family designs, few studies and none with genetic measures, have examined SPD in epidemiological samples.

We studied individuals born in Sweden 1940–2000 with an ICD-10 diagnosis of SPD with no prior schizophrenia (SZ) diagnosis (n = 2292). Demographic features, patterns of comorbidity, and Family Genetic Risk Scores (FGRS) were assessed from multiple Swedish registries. Prediction of progression to SZ was assessed by Cox models.

SPD was rare, with a prevalence of 0.044%, and had high levels of comorbidity with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), OCD, ADHD, and major depression (MD), and increased rates of being single, unemployed and in receipt of welfare. Affected individuals had elevated levels of FGRS for SZ (+0.42), ASD (+0.30), MD (+0.29), and ADHD (+0.20). Compared to cases of schizophrenia, they had significantly lower rates of FGRSSZ, but significantly elevated rates of genetic risk for ASD, MD, and ADHD. Over a mean follow-up of 8.7 years, 14.6% of SPD cases received a first diagnosis of SZ, the risk for which was significantly increased by levels of FGRSSZ, male sex, young age at SPD diagnosis and an in-patient SPD diagnosis and significantly decreased by comorbidity with MD, ASD, and ADHD.

Our results not only support the designation of SPD as a schizophrenia spectrum disorder but also suggest potentially important etiologic links between SPD and ASD and, to a lesser extent, ADHD, OCD, and MD.

One potential cause of comorbidity is the direct causal effect of one disorder – A – on risk for subsequent onset of disorder B. Could genetic risk scores be utilized to test for such an effect? If disorder A causally impacts on risk for disorder B, then genetic risk for disorder A should be lower in cases of disorder A with v. without a prior onset of B.

In all individuals (n = 905 736) born in Sweden from 1980 to 1990, from six psychiatric and drug use disorders (major depression, anxiety disorders, alcohol use disorder, drug use disorder, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia), we formed 14 pairs of disorders A and B. In these pairs, we compared, using Cox proportional hazards models, the predictive effect of the familial-genetic risk score (FGRS) for disorder B in those who had v. had not had a prior onset of disorder A.

In all pairs, the impact of the FGRS for disorder B was significantly stronger in cases without v. with a prior history of disorder A. These effects were similar across sex, stable across levels of FGRS and not likely due to clinician bias. In many of our disorder pairs, previous clinical studies suggest a mechanism for a causal effect of disorder A on B.

Our findings provide indirect evidence that the occurrence of one psychiatric or substance use disorder often has a causal effect on risk for subsequent disorders. This mechanism may substantially contribute to the widespread comorbidity among psychiatric conditions.

To determine whether genetic risk factors for major depression (MD) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) interact with a potent stressor – death of spouse, parent, and sibling – in predicting episodes of, respectively, MD and AUD.

MD and AUD registrations were assessed from national Swedish registries. In individuals born in Sweden 1960–1970, we identified 7586, 388 459, and 34 370 with the loss of, respectively, a spouse, parent, and sibling. We started following subjects at age 18 or the year 2002 with end of follow-up in 2018. We examined time to event – a registration for MD within 6 months or AUD within a year – on an additive scale, using the Nelson–Aalen estimator. Genetic risk was assessed by the Family Genetic Risk Score (FGRS).

In separate models controlling for the main effects of death of spouse, parent, and sibling, FGRS, and sex, significant interactions were seen in all analyses between genetic risk for MD and death of relative in prediction of subsequent MD registration. A similar pattern of results, albeit with weaker interaction effects, was seen for genetic risk for AUD and risk for AUD registration. Genetic risk for bipolar disorder (BD) and anxiety disorders (AD) also interacted with event exposure in predicting MD.

Genetic risk for both MD and AUD act in part by increasing the sensitivity of individuals to the pathogenic effects of environmental stressors. For prediction of MD, similar effects are also seen for genetic risk for AD and BD.

Prior research has reported an association between divorce and suicide attempt. We aimed to clarify this complex relationship, considering sex differences, temporal factors, and underlying etiologic pathways.

We used Swedish longitudinal national registry data for a cohort born 1960–1990 that was registered as married between 1978 and 2018 (N = 1 601 075). We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the association between divorce and suicide attempt. To assess whether observed associations were attributable to familial confounders or potentially causal in nature, we conducted co-relative analyses.

In the overall sample and in sex-stratified analyses, divorce was associated with increased risk of suicide attempt (adjusted hazard ratios [HRs] 1.66–1.77). Risk was highest in the year immediately following divorce (HRs 2.20–2.91) and declined thereafter, but remained elevated 5 or more years later (HRs 1.41–1.51). Divorcees from shorter marriages were at higher risk for suicide attempt than those from longer marriages (HRs 3.33–3.40 and 1.20–1.36, respectively). In general, HRs were higher for divorced females than for divorced males. Co-relative analyses suggested that familial confounders and a causal pathway contribute to the observed associations.

The association between divorce and risk of suicide attempt is complex, varying as a function of sex and time-related variables. Given evidence that the observed association is due in part to a causal pathway from divorce to suicide attempt, intervention or prevention efforts, such as behavioral therapy, could be most effective early in the divorce process, and in particular among females and those whose marriages were of short duration.

It is clinically important to predict the conversion of major depression (MD) to bipolar disorder (BD). Therefore, we sought to identify related conversion rates and risk factors.

This cohort study included the Swedish population born from 1941 onward. Data were collected from Swedish population-based registers. Potential risk factors, including family genetic risk scores (FGRS), which were calculated based on the phenotypes of relatives in the extended family and not molecular data, and demographic/clinical characteristics from these registers were retrieved. Those with first MD registrations from 2006 were followed up until 2018. The conversion rate to BD and related risk factors were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. Additional analyses were performed for late converters and with stratification by sex.

The cumulative incidence of conversion was 5.84% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 5.72–5.96] for 13 years. In the multivariable analysis, the strongest risk factors for conversion were high FGRS of BD [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.73, 95% CI 2.43–3.08], inpatient treatment settings (HR = 2.64, 95% CI 2.44–2.84), and psychotic depression (HR = 2.58, 95% CI 2.14–3.11). For late converters, the first registration of MD during the teenage years was a stronger risk factor when compared with the baseline model. When the interactions between risk factors and sex were significant, stratification by sex revealed that they were more predictive in females.

Family history of BD, inpatient treatment, and psychotic symptoms were the strongest predictors of conversion from MD to BD.

Are genetic risk factors for current depressive symptoms good proxies for genetic risk factors for syndromal major depression (MD)?

In over 9000 twins from the population-based Virginia Adult Twin Study of Psychiatric and Substance Use Disorders, the occurrence of all nine DSM symptomatic criteria for MD in the last year was assessed at personal interview and then grouped by their temporal co-occurrence. The DSM criteria which occurred outside (OUT) v. inside of (IN) MD episodes were then separated. We calculated tetrachoric correlations for OUT and IN depressive criteria in monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) pairs and fitted univariate and bivariate ACE twin models using OpenMx.

The mean twin correlations (±95% CIs) for IN depressive criteria were substantially higher than for OUT depressive criteria in both MZ [+0.35 (0.32–0.38) v. 0.20 (0.17–0.24)] and DZ pairs [0.20 (0.17–0.24) v. 0.10 (0.04–0.16]. The mean IN–OUT cross-correlation in MZ and DZ pairs was modest [+0.15 (0.07–0.24) and +0.07 (0.03–0.12)]. The mean heritability estimates for the nine In v. Out depressive criteria was 0.31 (0.22–0.41) and 0.15 (0.08–0.21), in MZ and DZ pairs, respectively. The mean genetic correlation between the nine IN and OUT depressive criteria was +0.07 (−0.07 to 0.21).

Depressive criteria occurring outside depressive episodes are less heritable than those occurring within. These two ways criteria can manifest are not closely genetically related. Current depressive symptoms – most of which are occurring outside of depressive episodes – are not, for genetic studies, good proxies for MD.

To determine, in a general population, how much rates of stress reactions (SR), major depression (MD), alcohol-use disorder (AUD) and drug-use disorder (DUD) increase after the death of close relatives.

SR, MD, AUD, and DUD registrations were assessed from national Swedish registries. From the population followed from 2000 to 2018, those exposed to death of a close relative in 2002–2016 were matched to unexposed controls and analyzed in males and females by a controlled pre-post design using a difference-in-difference method.

Substantial, brief increases in risk for SR and more modest prolonged increases in MD were observed after death of relatives in both men and women greatest with children, followed by spouses, parents, and siblings. Relatively long-lasting modest increases in AUD but not DUD were also observed following death of relatives. The absolute increases for SR and MD were greater in females than males and for AUD greater in males than females. However, logistic regression analyses showed most effects did not differ significantly by sex. Consistently larger increases in disorder risk were seen with the death of younger v. older parents, siblings, and spouses and with accidental v. non-accidental death in children.

Applying a matched cohort design to Swedish population registries, death of close relatives was associated with, and likely caused, substantial increases in rates of SR, MD, and AUD, consistent with smaller prior clinical investigations. Through such registries, we can, in large representative samples, integrate the impact of exposures to selected environmental adversities into disorder risk pathways.

To clarify, in a national sample, associations between risk for seven psychiatric and substance use disorders and five key transitions in Sweden's public educational system.

Swedish-born individuals (1972–1995, N = 1 997 910) were followed through 12-31-2018, at mean age 34.9. We predicted, from these educational transitions, risk for major depression (MD), obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), bipolar disorder (BD), schizophrenia (SZ), anorexia nervosa (AN), alcohol use disorder (AUD), and drug use disorder (DUD), assessed from Swedish national registers, by Cox regression, censoring individuals with onsets ⩽17. We also predicted risk from the deviation of grades from family-genetic expectations (deviation 1) and from changes in grades from ages 16 to 19 (deviation 2).

We observed four major risk patterns across transitions in our disorders: (i) MD and BD, (ii) OCD and SZ, (iii) AUD and DUD, and (iv) AN. Failing early educational transitions had the greatest impact on risk for OCD and SZ while for other disorders, not progressing from basic to upper high school had the largest effect. Completing vocational v. college-prep upper high school was strongly associated with risk for AUD and DUD, had little relation with MD, OCD, BD, and SZ risk, and was protective for AN. Deviation 1 predicted risk most strongly for SZ, AN, and MD. Deviation 2 predicted risk most strongly for SZ, AUD, and DUD.

The pattern of educational transitions and within family and within person development deviations are strongly and relatively specifically associated with future risk for seven psychiatric and substance-use disorders.

Psychotic disorders and schizotypal traits aggregate in the relatives of probands with schizophrenia. It is currently unclear how variability in symptom dimensions in schizophrenia probands and their relatives is associated with polygenic liability to psychiatric disorders.

To investigate whether polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can predict symptom dimensions in members of multiplex families with schizophrenia.

The largest genome-wide data-sets for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder were used to construct PRSs in 861 participants from the Irish Study of High-Density Multiplex Schizophrenia Families. Symptom dimensions were derived using the Operational Criteria Checklist for Psychotic Disorders in participants with a history of a psychotic episode, and the Structured Interview for Schizotypy in participants without a history of a psychotic episode. Mixed-effects linear regression models were used to assess the relationship between PRS and symptom dimensions across the psychosis spectrum.

Schizophrenia PRS is significantly associated with the negative/disorganised symptom dimension in participants with a history of a psychotic episode (P = 2.31 × 10−4) and negative dimension in participants without a history of a psychotic episode (P = 1.42 × 10−3). Bipolar disorder PRS is significantly associated with the manic symptom dimension in participants with a history of a psychotic episode (P = 3.70 × 10−4). No association with major depressive disorder PRS was observed.

Polygenic liability to schizophrenia is associated with higher negative/disorganised symptoms in participants with a history of a psychotic episode and negative symptoms in participants without a history of a psychotic episode in multiplex families with schizophrenia. These results provide genetic evidence in support of the spectrum model of schizophrenia, and support the view that negative and disorganised symptoms may have greater genetic basis than positive symptoms, making them better indices of familial liability to schizophrenia.

We need to better understand the frequency and predictors of opioid use disorder (OUD) after first opioid prescription (OP).

We followed 1 516 392 individuals from the Swedish population born 1980–2000, from 1 July 2007, until 31 Dec 2017. We examined putative risk predictors with univariable and multivariable Cox Models and the potential causal effects of predictors by propensity score and co-sibling analyses.

Of the individuals in our cohort, 24.8% (375 404) received a first OP, of whom 3034 (0.90%) developed a subsequent first OUD. The hazard ratio (HR) (± 95% CIs) for OUD after OP equaled 7.10 (6.75–7.46), with a mean time to onset of 3.41 (2.39) years. The strongest putative risk factors for development of OUD after OP were prior psychiatric and substance use disorders, criminal behavior, parental divorce/death, poor school performance, current community deprivation, divorce, and male sex. Few predictors differed across sexes. OP renewal was associated with a HR of 3.66 (3.41–3.93) for OUD. Co-sibling and propensity score analyses suggested that at least a moderate proportion of the risk factor-OUD association was likely causal. A risk score to predict OUD after OP had an AUC of 0.85, where nearly 60% of cases scoring in the top decile.

In a general population sample, an OP represents a substantial risk factor for subsequent OUD. Many of the risk factors for OUD after OP can be readily assessed at the time of potential OP, permitting clinicians to evaluate the risk of iatrogenic OUD.

Suicidal behavior and substance use disorders (SUDs) are important public health concerns. Prior suicide attempts and SUDs are two of the most consistent predictors of suicide death, and clarifying the role of SUDs in the transition from suicide attempt to suicide death could inform prevention efforts.

We used national Swedish registry data to identify individuals born 1960–1985, with an index suicide attempt in 1997–2017 (N = 74 873; 46.7% female). We assessed risk of suicide death as a function of registration for a range of individual SUDs. We further examined whether the impact of SUDs varied as a function of (i) aggregate genetic liability to suicidal behavior, or (ii) age at index suicide attempt.

In univariate models, risk of suicide death was higher among individuals with any SUD registration [hazard ratios (HRs) = 2.68–3.86]. In multivariate models, effects of specific SUDs were attenuated, but remained elevated for AUD (HR = 1.86 95% confidence intervals 1.68–2.05), opiates [HR = 1.58 (1.37–1.82)], sedatives [HR = 1.93 (1.70–2.18)], and multiple substances [HR = 2.09 (1.86–2.35)]. In secondary analyses, the effects of most, but not all, SUD were exacerbated by higher levels of genetic liability to suicide death, and among individuals who were younger at their index suicide attempt.

In the presence of a strong predictor of suicide death – a prior attempt – substantial predictive power is still attributable to SUDs. Individuals with SUDs may warrant additional suicide screening and prevention efforts, particularly in the context of a family history of suicidal behavior or early onset of suicide attempt.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the growing human mental health challenges facing the global health care system. In this study, the structural connectivity between symptoms of MDD is explored using two different network modeling approaches.

Data are from ‘the Virginia Adult Twin Study of Psychiatric and Substance Use Disorders (VATSPSUD)’. A cohort of N = 2163 American Caucasian female-female twins was assessed as part of the VATSPSUD study. MDD symptoms were assessed using personal structured clinical interviews. Two network analyses were conducted. First, an undirected network model was estimated to explore the connectivity between the MDD symptoms. Then, using a Bayesian network, we computed a directed acyclic graph (DAG) to investigate possible directional relationships between symptoms.

Based on the results of the undirected network, the depressed mood symptom had the highest centrality value, indicating its importance in the overall network of MDD symptoms. Bayesian network analysis indicated that depressed mood emerged as a plausible driving symptom for activating other symptoms. These results are consistent with DSM-5 guidelines for MDD. Also, somatic weight and appetite symptoms appeared as the strongest connections in both networks.

We discuss how the findings of our study might help future research to detect clinically relevant symptoms and possible directional relationships between MDD symptoms defining major depression episodes, which would help identify potential tailored interventions. This is the first study to investigate the network structure of VATSPSUD data using both undirected and directed network models.