This chapter introduces a “leader-centered theory of foreign policy change.” The theory seeks to account for the independent, systematic, and predictable effect of leaders in bringing about major changes in a country's foreign policy, in the sense of broader redirections that entail multiple decisions spanning different issue areas. More specifically, the theory explores the possible effect of leaders on the “why,” the “what,” and the “how” of foreign policy change in terms of:
• the reasons due to which leaders try to fundamentally redirect their countries’ foreign policy, which is henceforth referred to as “triggering change”;
• the substantive direction in which leaders seek to change foreign policy, which is henceforth referred to as “guiding change”; and
• the actions that leaders undertake to bring about change in the domestic political arena, which is henceforth referred to as “implementing change.”
The theory is distinct from alternative explanatory frameworks in that it evolves around individual leaders and at the same time systemically incorporates insights from the public policy literature.
The first key feature of the theory is its explicit focus on leaders as key “change agents” (Hermann, 1990). Indeed, most analytical frameworks in Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) that seek to account for foreign policy change bring together an array of structural and actor- oriented explanatory factors (for example, Holsti, 1982; Hermann, 1990; Rosati, 1994; Gustavsson, 1999; Welch, 2005; Blavoukos and Bourantonis, 2014; Joly and Haesebrouck, 2021; see also Chapter One of this volume). As a result, it is all but impossible to ascertain any independent and systematic effect that leaders might have on foreign policy change. The leader- centered theory outlined in this chapter offers an alternative perspective that conceptualizes individual decision makers as being crucial for the initiation, direction, and implementation of foreign policy change.
The second key feature is that the theory draws heavily on insights from the field of public policy. The first strand of literature that the theory incorporates is the one on policy failures (for example, Marsh and McConnell, 2010; Bovens and 't Hart, 2016; McConnell, 2016).