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Cost-utility analysis of antiviral use under pandemic influenza using a novel approach – linking pharmacology, epidemiology and heath economics
- D. B. C. Wu, N. Chaiyakunapruk, C. Pratoomsoot, K. K. C. Lee, H. Y. Chong, R. E. Nelson, P. F. Smith, C.M. Kirkpatrick, M. A. Kamal, K. Nieforth, G. Dall, S. Toovey, D. C. M. Kong, A. Kamauu, C. R. Rayner
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- Journal:
- Epidemiology & Infection / Volume 146 / Issue 4 / March 2018
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 15 February 2018, pp. 496-507
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Simulation models are used widely in pharmacology, epidemiology and health economics (HEs). However, there have been no attempts to incorporate models from these disciplines into a single integrated model. Accordingly, we explored this linkage to evaluate the epidemiological and economic impact of oseltamivir dose optimisation in supporting pandemic influenza planning in the USA. An HE decision analytic model was linked to a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) – dynamic transmission model simulating the impact of pandemic influenza with low virulence and low transmissibility and, high virulence and high transmissibility. The cost-utility analysis was from the payer and societal perspectives, comparing oseltamivir 75 and 150 mg twice daily (BID) to no treatment over a 1-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived from published studies. Outcomes were measured as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the integrated model's robustness. Under both pandemic scenarios, compared to no treatment, the use of oseltamivir 75 or 150 mg BID led to a significant reduction of influenza episodes and influenza-related deaths, translating to substantial savings of QALYs. Overall drug costs were offset by the reduction of both direct and indirect costs, making these two interventions cost-saving from both perspectives. The results were sensitive to the proportion of inpatient presentation at the emergency visit and patients’ quality of life. Integrating PK/PD–EPI/HE models is achievable. Whilst further refinement of this novel linkage model to more closely mimic the reality is needed, the current study has generated useful insights to support influenza pandemic planning.
A Clinical History of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Is a Poor Predictor of Preoperative Colonization Status and Postoperative Infections
- Judith Strymish, Westyn Branch-Elliman, Kamal M. F. Itani, Sandra Williams, Kalpana Gupta
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- Journal:
- Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology / Volume 33 / Issue 11 / November 2012
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 02 January 2015, pp. 1113-1117
- Print publication:
- November 2012
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Objective.
In the absence of established methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) screening programs, many centers use a history of a positive culture or a nasal screen as a surrogate for preoperative MRSA colonization status. We aimed to evaluate the test characteristics of these surrogates.
Design.Retrospective cohort study.
Participants.Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System surgical patients with a preoperative nasal MRSA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) screen.
Methods.We assessed the performance of a history of a MRSA-positive culture or a positive nasal MRSA PCR screen during the year prior to surgery for predicting the preoperative nasal PCR screen result. The associations between MRSA history and postoperative outcomes, including MRSA cultures and infections, were also evaluated.
Results.Among 4,238 patients, a positive MRSA culture history had a sensitivity of 19.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.4%–24.8%) and positive predictive value of 57.3% for the preoperative nasal MRSA status. The specificity of MRSA culture history was 99% (95% CI, 98.5%–99.2%). Prior-year nasal MRSA screen results had similar test characteristics. A history of a MRSA-positive culture was associated with an increased risk of postoperative MRSA-positive cultures (risk ratio [RR], 3.54 [95% CI, 1.70–7.37], P< .001) but not of infections (RR, 1.71 [95% CI, 0.58–5.01]), after adjustment for preoperative nasal MRSA status, vancomycin surgical prophylaxis, surgical scrub, and age.
Conclusions.A history of a MRSA-positive culture and a positive nasal PCR screen are poor surrogate markers of preoperative colonization status, missing at least 70% of MRSA-colonized patients. Prior-year history is also not independently associated with MRSA-related postoperative infections. Strong consideration should be given to preoperative MRSA screening in patients at high risk for surgical complications.
Preoperative Nasal Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Status, Surgical Prophylaxis, and Risk-Adjusted Postoperative Outcomes in Veterans
- Kalpana Gupta, Judith Strymish, Youmna Abi-Haidar, Sandra A. Williams, Kamal M. F. Itani
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- Journal:
- Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology / Volume 32 / Issue 8 / August 2011
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 02 January 2015, pp. 791-796
- Print publication:
- August 2011
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Objectives.
To determine whether preoperative nasal methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriage is a significant predictor of postoperative infections, after accounting for surgical infection risk and surgical prophylaxis.
Design.Retrospective cohort study.
Patients.Veterans Affairs (VA) Boston patients who had nasal MRSA polymerase chain reaction screening performed in the 31 days before clean or clean contaminated surgery in 2008–2009.
Methods.Postoperative MRSA clinical cultures and infections, total surgical site infections (SSIs), and surgical prophylaxis data were abstracted from administrative databases. MRSA infections were confirmed via chart review. Multivariate analysis of risk factors for each outcome was conducted using Poisson regression. SSI risk index was calculated for a subset of 1,551 patients assessed by the VA National Surgical Quality Improvement Program.
Results.Among 4,238 eligible patients, 279 (6.6%) were positive for preoperative nasal MRSA. Postoperative MRSA clinical cultures and infections, including MRSA SSIs, were each significantly increased in patients with preoperative nasal MRSA. After adjustment for surgery type, vancomycin prophylaxis, chlorhexidine/alcohol surgical skin preparation, and SSI risk index, preoperative nasal MRSA remained significantly associated with postoperative MRSA cultures (relative risk [RR], 8.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.01–25.82) and infections (RR, 8.46; 95% CI, 1.70–42.04). Vancomycin prophylaxis was associated with an increased risk of total SSI in those negative for nasal MRSA (RR, 4.34; 95% CI, 2.19–8.57) but not in patients positive for nasal MRSA.
Conclusions.In our population, preoperative nasal MRSA colonization was independently associated with MRSA clinical cultures and infections in the postoperative period. Vancomycin prophylaxis increased the risk of total SSI in nasal MRSA-negative patients.
Contributors
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- By Aakash Agarwala, Linda S. Aglio, Rae M. Allain, Paul D. Allen, Houman Amirfarzan, Yasodananda Kumar Areti, Amit Asopa, Edwin G. Avery, Patricia R. Bachiller, Angela M. Bader, Rana Badr, Sibinka Bajic, David J. Baker, Sheila R. Barnett, Rena Beckerly, Lorenzo Berra, Walter Bethune, Sascha S. Beutler, Tarun Bhalla, Edward A. Bittner, Jonathan D. Bloom, Alina V. Bodas, Lina M. Bolanos-Diaz, Ruma R. Bose, Jan Boublik, John P. Broadnax, Jason C. Brookman, Meredith R. Brooks, Roland Brusseau, Ethan O. Bryson, Linda A. Bulich, Kenji Butterfield, William R. Camann, Denise M. Chan, Theresa S. Chang, Jonathan E. Charnin, Mark Chrostowski, Fred Cobey, Adam B. Collins, Mercedes A. Concepcion, Christopher W. Connor, Bronwyn Cooper, Jeffrey B. Cooper, Martha Cordoba-Amorocho, Stephen B. Corn, Darin J. Correll, Gregory J. Crosby, Lisa J. Crossley, Deborah J. Culley, Tomas Cvrk, Michael N. D'Ambra, Michael Decker, Daniel F. Dedrick, Mark Dershwitz, Francis X. Dillon, Pradeep Dinakar, Alimorad G. Djalali, D. John Doyle, Lambertus Drop, Ian F. Dunn, Theodore E. Dushane, Sunil Eappen, Thomas Edrich, Jesse M. Ehrenfeld, Jason M. Erlich, Lucinda L. Everett, Elliott S. Farber, Khaldoun Faris, Eddy M. Feliz, Massimo Ferrigno, Richard S. Field, Michael G. Fitzsimons, Hugh L. Flanagan Jr., Vladimir Formanek, Amanda A. Fox, John A. Fox, Gyorgy Frendl, Tanja S. Frey, Samuel M. Galvagno Jr., Edward R. Garcia, Jonathan D. Gates, Cosmin Gauran, Brian J. Gelfand, Simon Gelman, Alexander C. Gerhart, Peter Gerner, Omid Ghalambor, Christopher J. Gilligan, Christian D. Gonzalez, Noah E. Gordon, William B. Gormley, Thomas J. Graetz, Wendy L. Gross, Amit Gupta, James P. Hardy, Seetharaman Hariharan, Miriam Harnett, Philip M. Hartigan, Joaquim M. Havens, Bishr Haydar, Stephen O. Heard, James L. Helstrom, David L. Hepner, McCallum R. Hoyt, Robert N. Jamison, Karinne Jervis, Stephanie B. Jones, Swaminathan Karthik, Richard M. Kaufman, Shubjeet Kaur, Lee A. Kearse Jr., John C. Keel, Scott D. Kelley, Albert H. Kim, Amy L. Kim, Grace Y. Kim, Robert J. Klickovich, Robert M. Knapp, Bhavani S. Kodali, Rahul Koka, Alina Lazar, Laura H. Leduc, Stanley Leeson, Lisa R. Leffert, Scott A. LeGrand, Patricio Leyton, J. Lance Lichtor, John Lin, Alvaro A. Macias, Karan Madan, Sohail K. Mahboobi, Devi Mahendran, Christine Mai, Sayeed Malek, S. Rao Mallampati, Thomas J. Mancuso, Ramon Martin, Matthew C. Martinez, J. A. Jeevendra Martyn, Kai Matthes, Tommaso Mauri, Mary Ellen McCann, Shannon S. McKenna, Dennis J. McNicholl, Abdel-Kader Mehio, Thor C. Milland, Tonya L. K. Miller, John D. Mitchell, K. Annette Mizuguchi, Naila Moghul, David R. Moss, Ross J. Musumeci, Naveen Nathan, Ju-Mei Ng, Liem C. Nguyen, Ervant Nishanian, Martina Nowak, Ala Nozari, Michael Nurok, Arti Ori, Rafael A. Ortega, Amy J. Ortman, David Oxman, Arvind Palanisamy, Carlo Pancaro, Lisbeth Lopez Pappas, Benjamin Parish, Samuel Park, Deborah S. Pederson, Beverly K. Philip, James H. Philip, Silvia Pivi, Stephen D. Pratt, Douglas E. Raines, Stephen L. Ratcliff, James P. Rathmell, J. Taylor Reed, Elizabeth M. Rickerson, Selwyn O. Rogers Jr., Thomas M. Romanelli, William H. Rosenblatt, Carl E. Rosow, Edgar L. Ross, J. Victor Ryckman, Mônica M. Sá Rêgo, Nicholas Sadovnikoff, Warren S. Sandberg, Annette Y. Schure, B. Scott Segal, Navil F. Sethna, Swapneel K. Shah, Shaheen F. Shaikh, Fred E. Shapiro, Torin D. Shear, Prem S. Shekar, Stanton K. Shernan, Naomi Shimizu, Douglas C. Shook, Kamal K. Sikka, Pankaj K. Sikka, David A. Silver, Jeffrey H. Silverstein, Emily A. Singer, Ken Solt, Spiro G. Spanakis, Wolfgang Steudel, Matthias Stopfkuchen-Evans, Michael P. Storey, Gary R. Strichartz, Balachundhar Subramaniam, Wariya Sukhupragarn, John Summers, Shine Sun, Eswar Sundar, Sugantha Sundar, Neelakantan Sunder, Faraz Syed, Usha B. Tedrow, Nelson L. Thaemert, George P. Topulos, Lawrence C. Tsen, Richard D. Urman, Charles A. Vacanti, Francis X. Vacanti, Joshua C. Vacanti, Assia Valovska, Ivan T. Valovski, Mary Ann Vann, Susan Vassallo, Anasuya Vasudevan, Kamen V. Vlassakov, Gian Paolo Volpato, Essi M. Vulli, J. Matthias Walz, Jingping Wang, James F. Watkins, Maxwell Weinmann, Sharon L. Wetherall, Mallory Williams, Sarah H. Wiser, Zhiling Xiong, Warren M. Zapol, Jie Zhou
- Edited by Charles Vacanti, Scott Segal, Pankaj Sikka, Richard Urman
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- Book:
- Essential Clinical Anesthesia
- Published online:
- 05 January 2012
- Print publication:
- 11 July 2011, pp xv-xxviii
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- By Mohamed Aboulghar, Ahmed Abou-Setta, Mary E. Abusief, G. David Adamson, R. J. Aitken, Hesham Al-Inany, Baris Ata, Hamdy Azab, Adam Balen, David H. Barad, Pedro N. Barri, C. Blockeel, Giuseppe Botta, Mark Bowman, Chris Brewer, Dominique M. Butawan, Sandra A. Carson, Hai Ying Chen, Anne Clark, Buenaventura Coroleu, S. Das, C. Dechanet, H. Déchaud, Cora de Klerk, Sheryl de Lacey, S. Deutsch-Bringer, P. Devroey, Didier Dewailly, Hakan E. Duran, Walid El Sherbiny, Tarek El-Toukhy, Johannes L. H. Evers, Cynthia Farquhar, Rodney D. Franklin, Juan A. Garcia-Velasco, David K. Gardner, Norbert Gleicher, Gedis Grudzinskas, Roger Hart, B Hédon, Colin M. Howles, Jack Yu Jen Huang, N. P. Johnson, Hey-Joo Kang, Gab Kovacs, Ben Kroon, Anver Kuliev, William H. Kutteh, Nick Macklon, Ragaa Mansour, Lamiya Mohiyiddeen, Lisa J. Moran, David Mortimer, Sharon T. Mortimer, Luciano G. Nardo, Robert J. Norman, Willem Ombelet, Luk Rombauts, Zev Rosenwaks, Francisco J. Ruiz Flores, Anthony J. Rutherford, Gavin Sacks, Denny Sakkas, M. W. Seif, Ayse Seyhan, Caroline Smith, Kate Stern, Elizabeth A. Sullivan, Sesh Kamal Sunkara, Seang Lin Tan, Mohamed Taranissi, Kelton P. Tremellen, Wendy S. Vitek, V. Vloeberghs, Bradley J. Van Voorhis, S. F. van Voorst, Amr Wahba, Yueping A. Wang, Klaus E. Wiemer
- Edited by Gab Kovacs, Monash University, Victoria
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- Book:
- How to Improve your ART Success Rates
- Published online:
- 05 July 2011
- Print publication:
- 30 June 2011, pp viii-xii
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Presentation and epidemiology of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Jordan
- M. F. Kamal, S. M. Samarrai
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- Journal:
- The Journal of Laryngology & Otology / Volume 113 / Issue 5 / May 1999
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 29 June 2007, pp. 422-426
- Print publication:
- May 1999
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A retrospective study, which highlights some of the aspects of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) as seen in a large hospital for 20 years in Jordan, was performed. Collected data showed that NPC accounted for one per cent of all malignant tumours during the period. The present series showed an age range from six to 89 years old with a mean of 39.5 years. There was a bimodal peak at presentation at 16 to 20 and 46 to 50 years. A high incidence of childhood NPC was also noticed (two per cent of all childhood malignant tumours). The difficulty in early diagnosis urges for better awareness of the tumour especially among general practitioners. The tumour is still detected at an advanced stage with 34 per cent metastasis most frequently to bone. The study stresses the importance of full ENT examination in cases of persistent middle ear disease, recurrent or persistent nasal symptoms or headache, or neck swelling; and routine bone scanning for all cases with NPC. There is a need for prospective studies of the causal relationship of NPC to environmental factors including Epstein-Barr (EB) virus as well as occupational and domestic hazards.