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The authors offer reflections and lessons learned in a single pediatric tertiary center’s experience during a pediatric mass casualty incident (MCI). The MCI occurred at a holiday parade and the patients were brought to multiple community emergency departments for initial resuscitation prior to transfer to the Pediatric level 1 trauma center. In total, 18 children presented with severe blunt force trauma after a motor vehicle entered the parade route. Following initial triage in emergency departments, 10 of 18 children injured during the incident were admitted to the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit, collectively representing a system-wide stressor of emergency medicine, critical care, and surgical services. Institutional characteristics, activation of personnel and supplies, and psychosocial support for families during an MCI are important to consider in children’s hospitals’ disaster preparedness planning.
Dropout from healthcare interventions can negatively affect patients and healthcare providers through impaired trust in the healthcare system and ineffective use of resources. Research on this topic is still largely missing on refugees and asylum seekers. The current study aimed to characterize predictors for dropout in the Mental Health in Refugees and Asylum Seekers (MEHIRA) study, one of the largest multicentered controlled trials investigating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a nationwide stepped and collaborative care model.
Methods
Predictors were multiply imputed and selected for descriptive modelling using backward elimination. The final variable set was entered into logistic regression.
Results
The overall dropout rate was 41,7%. Dropout was higher in participants in group therapy (p = 0.001; OR = 10.7), with larger satisfaction with social relationships (p = 0.017; OR = 1.87), with difficulties in maintaining personal relationships (p = 0.005; OR = 4.27), and with higher depressive symptoms (p = 0.029; OR = 1.05). Participants living in refugee accommodation (p = 0.040; OR = 0.45), with a change in social status (p = 0.008; OR = 0.67) and with conduct (p = 0.020; OR = 0.24) and emotional problems (p = 0.013; OR = 0.31) were significantly less likely to drop out of treatment.
Conclusion
Overall, the outcomes of this study suggest that predictors assessing social relationships, social status, and living conditions should be considered as topics of psychological treatment to increase adherence and as predictors for future research studies (including treatment type).
We study the Cauchy problem on the real line for the nonlocal Fisher-KPP equation in one spatial dimension,
\begin{equation*} u_t = D u_{xx} + u(1-\phi *u), \end{equation*}
where $\phi *u$ is a spatial convolution with the top hat kernel, $\phi (y) \equiv H\left (\frac{1}{4}-y^2\right )$. After observing that the problem is globally well-posed, we demonstrate that positive, spatially periodic solutions bifurcate from the spatially uniform steady state solution $u=1$ as the diffusivity, $D$, decreases through $\Delta _1 \approx 0.00297$ (the exact value is determined in Section 3). We explicitly construct these spatially periodic solutions as uniformly valid asymptotic approximations for $D \ll 1$, over one wavelength, via the method of matched asymptotic expansions. These consist, at leading order, of regularly spaced, compactly supported regions with width of $O(1)$ where $u=O(1)$, separated by regions where $u$ is exponentially small at leading order as $D \to 0^+$. From numerical solutions, we find that for $D \geq \Delta _1$, permanent form travelling waves, with minimum wavespeed, $2 \sqrt{D}$, are generated, whilst for $0 \lt D \lt \Delta _1$, the wavefronts generated separate the regions where $u=0$ from a region where a steady periodic solution is created via a distinct periodic shedding mechanism acting immediately to the rear of the advancing front, with this mechanism becoming more pronounced with decreasing $D$. The structure of these transitional travelling wave forms is examined in some detail.
Background: Presenteeism when ill in healthcare personnel (HCP) can contribute to the spread of respiratory illness among HCP and patients. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic and now, there are substantial challenges preventing HCP from staying home when ill. We examined these challenges using the Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) framework. Method: As part of a larger anonymous electronic survey between 3/11/2022 and 4/12/2022 at an academic tertiary referral center, in inpatient and ambulatory settings where respondents were asked to describe factors impacting presenteeism when ill, we analyzed free-text responses using the SEIPS categories of tasks, tools/technology, person, organization, and physical environment. Result: 522 comments were received in response to the open-ended survey question asking individuals to describe any factors that would assist them in remaining home and/or help them get tested for COVID-19 when they have symptoms of a respiratory illness; 21 were excluded due to absent or incomplete response. Of the remaining responses (N = 501, Figure 1), 82% were associated with a single SEIPS component such as organization (N = 409), while other responses discussed factors that involved two SEIPS components, in no particular order (N = 92). A majority of the responses (N = 324, 55%) reported organizational barriers, frequently citing a strict sick call-in policy as well as a lack of protected time-off for COVID-19 testing or related absences. The next two most commonly identified components were physical environment (N= 88, 15%) and tasks (N = 72, 12%), mentioning barriers such as far distances to testing centers and prolonged waiting periods for testing Results: The person and tools/technology components were less commonly identified, with a frequency of 9% each. Conclusion: A number of systems level factors were identified that may impact the ability of HCP to stay home when ill. Interventions to help overcome HCP perceived barriers to staying home when experiencing respiratory symptoms should focus on the policies and practices within an organization. Communication from leadership should support staying home with respiratory symptoms by creating plans for coverage and back up consistently across all employee types in direct care.
Although the link between alcohol involvement and behavioral phenotypes (e.g. impulsivity, negative affect, executive function [EF]) is well-established, the directionality of these associations, specificity to stages of alcohol involvement, and extent of shared genetic liability remain unclear. We estimate longitudinal associations between transitions among alcohol milestones, behavioral phenotypes, and indices of genetic risk.
Methods
Data came from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (n = 3681; ages 11–36). Alcohol transitions (first: drink, intoxication, alcohol use disorder [AUD] symptom, AUD diagnosis), internalizing, and externalizing phenotypes came from the Semi-Structured Assessment for the Genetics of Alcoholism. EF was measured with the Tower of London and Visual Span Tasks. Polygenic scores (PGS) were computed for alcohol-related and behavioral phenotypes. Cox models estimated associations among PGS, behavior, and alcohol milestones.
Results
Externalizing phenotypes (e.g. conduct disorder symptoms) were associated with future initiation and drinking problems (hazard ratio (HR)⩾1.16). Internalizing (e.g. social anxiety) was associated with hazards for progression from first drink to severe AUD (HR⩾1.55). Initiation and AUD were associated with increased hazards for later depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation (HR⩾1.38), and initiation was associated with increased hazards for future conduct symptoms (HR = 1.60). EF was not associated with alcohol transitions. Drinks per week PGS was linked with increased hazards for alcohol transitions (HR⩾1.06). Problematic alcohol use PGS increased hazards for suicidal ideation (HR = 1.20).
Conclusions
Behavioral markers of addiction vulnerability precede and follow alcohol transitions, highlighting dynamic, bidirectional relationships between behavior and emerging addiction.
Cardiometabolic disease risk factors are disproportionately prevalent in bipolar disorder (BD) and are associated with cognitive impairment. It is, however, unknown which health risk factors for cardiometabolic disease are relevant to cognition in BD. This study aimed to identify the cardiometabolic disease risk factors that are the most important correlates of cognitive impairment in BD; and to examine whether the nature of the relationships vary between mid and later life.
Methods
Data from the UK Biobank were available for 966 participants with BD, aged between 40 and 69 years. Individual cardiometabolic disease risk factors were initially regressed onto a global cognition score in separate models for the following risk factor domains; (1) health risk behaviors (physical activity, sedentary behavior, smoking, and sleep) and (2) physiological risk factors, stratified into (2a) anthropometric and clinical risk (handgrip strength, body composition, and blood pressure), and (2b) cardiometabolic disease risk biomarkers (CRP, lipid profile, and HbA1c). A final combined multivariate regression model for global cognition was then fitted, including only the predictor variables that were significantly associated with cognition in the previous models.
Results
In the final combined model, lower mentally active and higher passive sedentary behavior, higher levels of physical activity, inadequate sleep duration, higher systolic and lower diastolic blood pressure, and lower handgrip strength were associated with worse global cognition.
Conclusions
Health risk behaviors, as well as blood pressure and muscular strength, are associated with cognitive function in BD, whereas other traditional physiological cardiometabolic disease risk factors are not.
The Classic Maya polities of Baking Pot and Lower Dover developed along two dramatically different trajectories. At Baking Pot, the capital and associated apical elite regime grew concomitantly with surrounding populations over a thousand-year period. The smaller polity of Lower Dover, in contrast, formed when a Late Classic political center was established by an emergent apical elite regime amidst several long-established intermediate elite-headed districts. The different trajectories through which these polities formed should have clear implications for residential size variability. We employ the Gini coefficient to measure variability in household volume to compare patterns of residential size differentiation between the two polities. The Gini coefficients, while similar, suggest greater differentiation in residential size at Baking Pot than at Lower Dover, likely related to the centralized control of labor by the ruling elite at Baking Pot. While the Gini coefficient is synonymous with measuring wealth inequalities, we suggest that in the Classic period Belize River Valley, residential size was more reflective of labor control.
The first comparative study of estimative intelligence and strategic surprise in a European context, complementing and testing insights from previous studies centred on the United States.
This book provides the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. It develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers not just government intelligence assessments, but also diplomatic reporting and expert open sources and how these assessments were received by organisational leaders. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across both communities. With the help of former senior officials, the book identifies lessons yet to be learnt by European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.
The proposed model overlooks the self-referential and self-perpetuating nature of ownership intuitions. Human knowledge is primarily formed through social interaction within power dynamics. Accordingly, we suggest that legitimate ownership of one object can influence perceptions of legitimate ownership of another object. Ultimately, we argue that ownership intuitions are not independent but embedded in a self-referential system that perpetuates inequality.
We recently reported on the radio-frequency attenuation length of cold polar ice at Summit Station, Greenland, based on bi-static radar measurements of radio-frequency bedrock echo strengths taken during the summer of 2021. Those data also allow studies of (a) the relative contributions of coherent (such as discrete internal conducting layers with sub-centimeter transverse scale) vs incoherent (e.g. bulk volumetric) scattering, (b) the magnitude of internal layer reflection coefficients, (c) limits on signal propagation velocity asymmetries (‘birefringence’) and (d) limits on signal dispersion in-ice over a bandwidth of ~100 MHz. We find that (1) attenuation lengths approach 1 km in our band, (2) after averaging 10 000 echo triggers, reflected signals observable over the thermal floor (to depths of ~1500 m) are consistent with being entirely coherent, (3) internal layer reflectivities are ≈–60$\to$–70 dB, (4) birefringent effects for vertically propagating signals are smaller by an order of magnitude relative to South Pole and (5) within our experimental limits, glacial ice is non-dispersive over the frequency band relevant for neutrino detection experiments.
Background: Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare systems were stretched thin, with staffing shortages posing substantial challenges. Limiting spread of COVID-19 among healthcare professionals (HCP) is paramount to preventing exacerbation of such shortages, but strategies are highly dependent on HCP self-screening for symptoms and isolating when present. We examined HCP perceptions of barriers and factors that facilitate staying home when experiencing respiratory symptoms. Methods: At an academic tertiary-care referral center, in inpatient and ambulatory settings, we conducted an anonymous electronic survey between March 11, 2022, and April 12, 2022. Using logistic regression analysis, we analyzed predictors of employees reporting to work with respiratory symptoms using STATA and SAS software. Results: In total, 1,185 individuals including 829 clinical staff and 356 nonclinical staff responded to the survey. When excluding participants who reported working “remotely” (N = 381) and those who reported being unsure of whether they had worked with symptoms (N = 14), the prevalence of working with respiratory symptoms was 63%. There was no significant difference between clinical and nonclinical staff (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8–1.5; P = .60). Increasing number of years of service was protective against working with symptoms, achieving statistically significance in multivariable analysis after 16 years. Compared to those having worked <1 year, the odds ratios of working with symptoms were 0.32 (95% CI, 0.16–0.65; P = .002), 0.33 (95% CI, 0.15–0.74; P = .007), and 0.32 (95% CI, 0.13–0.79; P = .007) for those working 16–20 years, 21–25 years, and ≥26 years, respectively. More than half of HCP who worked with symptoms identified being understaffed (56.9%), having mild symptoms (55.3%), and sense of responsibility (55.1%) as reasons to work with respiratory symptoms. The following barriers, or reasons to work with symptoms, were more commonly identified as significant by those who worked with symptoms compared to those who did not: being understaffed (OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.35–2.58; P ≤ .001), having mild symptoms (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.42–2.71; P < .001), and lack of support from management (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.07–3.18; P = .03). Conclusions: Working with respiratory symptoms is prevalent in clinical and nonclinical HCP. Those with fewer years of work experience appear to be more susceptible to misconceptions and pressures to work despite respiratory symptoms. Messaging should stress support from leadership and the significance of even mild respiratory symptoms and should emphasize responsibility to patients and colleagues to stay home with respiratory symptoms. Strategies to ensure adequate staffing and sick leave may also be high yield.
Refugees and asylum seekers (RAS) in Germany need tailored and resource-oriented mental healthcare interventions.
Aims
To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of group psychotherapy for RAS with moderate depressive symptoms.
Method
This is a post hoc cost-effectiveness analysis of Empowerment group psychotherapy that was embedded in a stratified stepped and collaborative care model (SCCM) from the multicentre randomised controlled MEHIRA trial. One hundred and forty-nine participants were randomly assigned to SCCM or treatment as usual (TAU) and underwent Empowerment (i.e. level 3 of the SCCM for adults) or TAU. Effects were measured with the nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and quality adjusted life-years (QALY) post-intervention. Health service and intervention costs were measured. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were estimated and net monetary benefit (NMB) regressions with 95% confidence intervals were performed. Cost-effectiveness was ascertained for different values of willingness to pay (WTP) using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves for probable scenarios. Trial registration number: NCT03109028 on ClinicalTrials.gov.
Results
Health service use costs were significantly lower for Empowerment than TAU after 1 year. Intervention costs were on average €409.6. Empowerment led to a significant change in PHQ-9 scores but not QALY. Bootstrapped mean ICER indicated cost-effectiveness according to PHQ-9 and varied considerably for QALY in the base case. NMB for a unit reduction in PHQ-9 score at WTP of €0 was €354.3 (€978.5 to −€269.9). Results were confirmed for different scenarios and varying WTP thresholds.
Conclusions
The Empowerment intervention was cost-effective in refugees with moderate depressive symptoms regarding the clinical outcome and led to a reduction in direct healthcare consumption. Concerning QALYs, there was a lack of confidence that Empowerment differed from TAU.
Reward processing has been proposed to underpin the atypical social feature of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, previous neuroimaging studies have yielded inconsistent results regarding the specificity of atypicalities for social reward processing in ASD.
Aims
Utilising a large sample, we aimed to assess reward processing in response to reward type (social, monetary) and reward phase (anticipation, delivery) in ASD.
Method
Functional magnetic resonance imaging during social and monetary reward anticipation and delivery was performed in 212 individuals with ASD (7.6–30.6 years of age) and 181 typically developing participants (7.6–30.8 years of age).
Results
Across social and monetary reward anticipation, whole-brain analyses showed hypoactivation of the right ventral striatum in participants with ASD compared with typically developing participants. Further, region of interest analysis across both reward types yielded ASD-related hypoactivation in both the left and right ventral striatum. Across delivery of social and monetary reward, hyperactivation of the ventral striatum in individuals with ASD did not survive correction for multiple comparisons. Dimensional analyses of autism and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) scores were not significant. In categorical analyses, post hoc comparisons showed that ASD effects were most pronounced in participants with ASD without co-occurring ADHD.
Conclusions
Our results do not support current theories linking atypical social interaction in ASD to specific alterations in social reward processing. Instead, they point towards a generalised hypoactivity of ventral striatum in ASD during anticipation of both social and monetary rewards. We suggest this indicates attenuated reward seeking in ASD independent of social content and that elevated ADHD symptoms may attenuate altered reward seeking in ASD.
In January 2011, the anti-government protests which had started in Tunisia in the previous month were spreading to Egypt. To the astonishment of decision-makers and commentators alike, the protests could not be suppressed by the long-standing autocratic leaders in both countries, culminating in the downfall of both Ben Ali of Tunisia and Mubarak of Egypt within the span of a month. Not long after, the protests spread across many parts of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in another unforeseen development. Three years later, a chain of events that had erupted after the Euromaidan protests in Ukraine in 2013 evolved into a full-blown violent conflict after Russia violated Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity by annexing Crimea in March 2014. This move caught both experts and decision-makers in the West by surprise, with Putin openly admitting in April that Russian servicemen had indeed backed the ‘little green men’ in Crimea, fighters without military insignia that had initially caused confusion in the West. Weeks later, in June 2014, the so-called ‘Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham’ (ISIS) seized Mosul and its international airport while Iraqi security forces failed to counter the offensive and withdrew. The collapse of the Iraqi army at Mosul and the fall of the city to ISIS surprised many expert observers and reportedly even ISIS. Similarly unforeseen was the group’s rapid expansion beyond Mosul, which cemented ISIS’s rise as a powerful and destructive actor in Iraq and Syria.
Each of these events represented a moment of ‘peak surprise’ for Western professional analysts and decision-makers in three partly overlapping crises erupting in the European neighbourhood in the first half of the 2010s. In the aftermath, intelligence communities and policymakers were accused of failing to anticipate, warn, listen or prepare for these eventualities. In response, some intelligence professionals claimed that some of these events had been ‘inherently […] unpredictable’ because ‘there were no sort of secrets there which could have told us they were going to happen’ as the British Chief of SIS (MI6) argued in relation to the Arab uprisings. Strategic documents and reviews issued in Washington, London, Berlin or Brussels in subsequent years painted the picture of a new era of uncertainty.