COVID-19 has caused tremendous death and suffering since it first emerged in 2019. Soon after its emergence, models were developed to help predict the course of various disease metrics, and these models have been relied upon to help guide public health policy.

Here we present a method called COVIDNearTerm to “forecast” hospitalizations in the short term, two to four weeks from the time of prediction. COVIDNearTerm is based on an autoregressive model and utilizes a parametric bootstrap approach to make predictions. It is easy to use as it requires only previous hospitalization data, and there is an open-source R package that implements the algorithm. We evaluated COVIDNearTerm on San Francisco Bay Area hospitalizations and compared it to models from the California COVID Assessment Tool (CalCAT).

We found that COVIDNearTerm predictions were more accurate than the CalCAT ensemble predictions for all comparisons and any CalCAT component for a majority of comparisons. For instance, at the county level our 14-day hospitalization median absolute percentage errors ranged from 16 to 36%. For those same comparisons, the CalCAT ensemble errors were between 30 and 59%.

COVIDNearTerm is a simple and useful tool for predicting near-term COVID-19 hospitalizations.

Percutaneous tunneled drainage catheter (PTDC) placement is a palliative alternative to serial paracenteses in patients with end-stage cancer and refractory ascites. The impact of PTDC on quality of life (QoL) and long-term outcomes has not been prospectively described. The objective was to evaluate changes in QoL after PTDC.

Eligible adult patients with end-stage cancer undergoing PTDC placement for refractory ascites completed the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire and McGill Quality of Life instruments before PTDC placement and at 2 to 7 days and 2 to 4 weeks after PTDC. Catheter function, complications, and laboratory values were assessed. Analysis of QoL data was evaluated with a stratified Wilcoxon signed-rank test.

Fifty patients enrolled. Survey completion ranged from 65% to 100% (median 88%) across timepoints. All patients had a Tenckhoff catheter, with 98% technical success. Median survival after PTDC was 38 days (95% confidence interval = 32, 57 days). European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer scores showed improvement in global QoL (p = 0.03) at 1 week postprocedure (PP). Significant symptom improvement was reported for fatigue, nausea/vomiting, pain, dyspnea, insomnia, and appetite at 1 week PP and was sustained at 3 weeks PP for dyspnea (p < 0.01), insomnia (p < 0.01), and appetite loss (p = 0.03). McGill Quality of Life demonstrated overall QoL improvement at 1 (p = 0.03) and 3 weeks (p = 0.04) PP. Decline in sodium and albumin values pre- and post-PTDC slowed significantly (albumin slope –0.43 to –0.26, p = 0.055; sodium slope –2.50 to 1.31, p = 0.04). Creatinine values increased at an accelerated pace post-PTDC (0.040 to 0.21, p < 0.01). Thirty-eight catheter-related complications occurred in 24 of 45 patients (53%).

QoL and symptoms improved after PTDC placement for refractory ascites in patients with end-stage malignancy. Decline in sodium and albumin values slowed postplacement. This study supports the use of a PTDC for palliation of refractory ascites in cancer patients.

To identify the optimal waist:height ratio (WHtR) cut-off point that discriminates cardiometabolic risk factors in Turkish adults.

Cross-sectional study. Hypertension, dyslipidaemia, diabetes, metabolic syndrome score ≥2 (presence of two or more metabolic syndrome components except for waist circumference) and at least one risk factor (diabetes, hypertension or dyslipidaemia) were categorical outcome variables. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were prepared by plotting 1 − specificity on the x-axis and sensitivity on the y-axis. The WHtR value that had the highest Youden index was selected as the optimal cut-off point for each cardiometabolic risk factor (Youden index = sensitivity + specificity − 1).

Turkey, 2003.

Adults (1121 women and 571 men) aged 18 years and over were examined.

Analysis of ROC coordinate tables showed that the optimal cut-off value ranged between 0·55 and 0·60 and was almost equal between men and women. The sensitivities of the identified cut-offs were between 0·63 and 0·81, the specificities were between 0·42 and 0·71 and the accuracies were between 0·65 and 0·73, for men and women. The cut-off point of 0·59 was the most frequently identified value for discrimination of the studied cardiometabolic risk factors. Subjects classified as having WHtR ≥ 0·59 had significantly higher age and sociodemographic multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for cardiometabolic risk factors than subjects with WHtR < 0·59, except for diabetes in men.

We show that the optimal WHtR cut-off point to discriminate cardiometabolic risk factors is 0·59 in Turkish adults.

To identify the best anthropometric index that predicts cardiometabolic risk factors.

Cross-sectional study in Turkey, in 2003.

Turkish men and women aged 18 years and over (n 1692) were examined. Body weight, height, waist and hip circumferences, blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, TAG, glucose and insulin were measured. Metabolic syndrome score was calculated as the sum of modified National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, excluding waist circumference. Insulin resistance was estimated by homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR).

BMI, waist:hip ratio (WHpR), waist:height ratio (WHtR), waist circumference (WC) and hip circumference (HC) were significantly correlated with each other. Partial correlation coefficients between systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, TAG levels or HOMA-IR and BMI, WC or WHtR were similar and higher than correlation coefficients of WHpR and HC. The association of anthropometric indices with metabolic syndrome score and Framingham risk score was highest for WHtR. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves showed that WHtR was the best anthropometric index that discriminated between the presence and absence of hypertension, diabetes and metabolic syndrome, whereas WHpR was better for dyslipidaemia.

WHtR was the best anthropometric index for predicting most cardiometabolic risk factors. WC and BMI ranked second for their predictive capability of cardiometabolic risk, followed by WHpR and HC.