The theory of signal detection is convenient for measuring mnemonic ability in recognition memory paradigms. In these paradigms, randomly selected participants are asked to study randomly selected items. In practice, researchers aggregate data across items or participants or both. The signal detection model is nonlinear; consequently, analysis with aggregated data is not consistent. In fact, mnemonic ability is underestimated, even in the large-sample limit. We present two hierarchical Bayesian models that simultaneously account for participant and item variability. We show how these models provide for accurate estimation of participants’ mnemonic ability as well as the memorability of items. The model is benchmarked with a simulation study and applied to a novel data set.

This paper provides a statistical framework for estimating higher-order characteristics of the response time distribution, such as the scale (variability) and shape. Consideration of these higher order characteristics often provides for more rigorous theory development in cognitive and perceptual psychology (e.g., Luce, 1986). RT distribution for a single participant depends on certain participant characteristics, which in turn can be thought of as arising from a distribution of latent variables. The present work focuses on the three-parameter Weibull distribution, with parameters for shape, scale, and shift (initial value). Bayesian estimation in a hierarchical framework is conceptually straightforward. Parameter estimates, both for participant quantities and population parameters, are obtained through Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The methods are illustrated with an application to response time data in an absolute identification task. The behavior of the Bayes estimates are compared to maximum likelihood (ML) estimates through Monte Carlo simulations. For small sample size, there is an occasional tendency for the ML estimates to be unreasonably extreme. In contrast, by borrowing strength across participants, Bayes estimation “shrinks” extreme estimates. The results are that the Bayes estimators are more accurate than the corresponding ML estimators.

The target backsheath field acceleration mechanism is one of the main mechanisms of laser-driven proton acceleration (LDPA) and strongly depends on the comprehensive performance of the ultrashort ultra-intense lasers used as the driving sources. The successful use of the SG-II Peta-watt (SG-II PW) laser facility for LDPA and its applications in radiographic diagnoses have been manifested by the good performance of the SG-II PW facility. Recently, the SG-II PW laser facility has undergone extensive maintenance and a comprehensive technical upgrade in terms of the seed source, laser contrast and terminal focus. LDPA experiments were performed using the maintained SG-II PW laser beam, and the highest cutoff energy of the proton beam was obviously increased. Accordingly, a double-film target structure was used, and the maximum cutoff energy of the proton beam was up to 70 MeV. These results demonstrate that the comprehensive performance of the SG-II PW laser facility was improved significantly.

People often make more rational choices between monetary prospects when their choices will be played out many times rather than just once. For example, previous research has shown that the certainty effect and the possibility effect (two common-ratio effects that violate expected utility theory) are eliminated in multiple-play decisions. This finding is challenged by seven new studies (N = 2391) and two small meta-analyses. Results indicate that, on average, certainty and possibility effects are reduced but not eliminated in multiple-play decisions. Moreover, in our within-participants studies, the certainty and possibility choice patterns almost always remained the modal or majority patterns. Our primary results were not reliably affected by prompts that encouraged a long-run perspective, by participants’ insight into long-run payoffs, or by participants’ numeracy. The persistence of common-ratio effects suggests that the oft-cited benefits of multiple plays for the rationality of decision makers’ choices may be smaller than previously realized.

Transgenerational plasticity can help organisms respond rapidly to changing environments. Most prior studies of transgenerational plasticity in host–parasite interactions have focused on the host, leaving us with a limited understanding of transgenerational plasticity of parasites. We tested whether exposure to elevated temperatures while spores are developing can modify the ability of those spores to infect new hosts, as well as the growth and virulence of the next generation of parasites in the new host. We exposed Daphnia dentifera to its naturally co-occurring fungal parasite Metschnikowia bicuspidata, rearing the parasite at cooler (20°C) or warmer (24°C) temperatures and then, factorially, using those spores to infect at 20 and 24°C. Infections by parasites reared at warmer past temperatures produced more mature spores, but only when the current infections were at cooler temperatures. Moreover, the percentage of mature spores was impacted by both rearing and current temperatures, and was highest for infections with spores reared in a warmer environment that infected hosts in a cooler environment. In contrast, virulence was influenced only by current temperatures. These results demonstrate transgenerational plasticity of parasites in response to temperature changes, with fitness impacts that are dependent on both past and current environments.

We report the experimental results of the commissioning phase in the 10 PW laser beamline of the Shanghai Superintense Ultrafast Laser Facility (SULF). The peak power reaches 2.4 PW on target without the last amplifying during the experiment. The laser energy of 72 ± 9 J is directed to a focal spot of approximately 6 μm diameter (full width at half maximum) in 30 fs pulse duration, yielding a focused peak intensity around 2.0 × 1021 W/cm2. The first laser-proton acceleration experiment is performed using plain copper and plastic targets. High-energy proton beams with maximum cut-off energy up to 62.5 MeV are achieved using copper foils at the optimum target thickness of 4 μm via target normal sheath acceleration. For plastic targets of tens of nanometers thick, the proton cut-off energy is approximately 20 MeV, showing ring-like or filamented density distributions. These experimental results reflect the capabilities of the SULF-10 PW beamline, for example, both ultrahigh intensity and relatively good beam contrast. Further optimization for these key parameters is underway, where peak laser intensities of 1022–1023 W/cm2 are anticipated to support various experiments on extreme field physics.

Birthweight has been consistently related to risk of cardiometabolic disorders in later life. Twins are at higher risk of low birthweight than singletons, so understanding the links between birthweight and cardiometabolic health may be particularly important for twins. However, evidence for the association of birthweight with childhood markers of cardiometabolic health in twins is currently lacking. Previous studies have often failed to appropriately adjust for gestational age or fully implement twin regression models. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the association of birthweight-for-gestational-age z-scores with childhood cardiometabolic health in twins, using within-between regression models. The Peri/Postnatal Epigenetic Twins Study is a Melbourne-based prospective cohort study of 250 twin pairs. Birthweight was recorded at delivery, and childhood anthropometric measures were taken at 18-month and 6-year follow-up visits. Associations of birthweight with markers of cardiometabolic health were assessed at the individual, between- and within-pair level using linear regression with generalised estimating equations. Birthweight-for-gestational-age z-scores were associated with height, weight and BMI at 18 months and 6 years, but not with blood pressure (twins-as-individual SBP: β = 0.15, 95% CI: −0.81, 1.11; twins-as-individual DBP: β = 0.22, 95% CI: −0.34, 0.77). We found little evidence to indicate that the within-between models improved on the twins-as-individuals models. Birthweight was associated with childhood anthropometric measures, but not blood pressure, after appropriately adjusting for gestational age. These associations were consistent across the within-between and twins-as-individuals models. After adjusting for gestational age, results from the twins-as-individuals models are consistent with singleton studies, so these results can be applied to the general population.

We use resolvent analysis to develop a physics-based, open-loop, unsteady control strategy to attenuate pressure fluctuations in turbulent flow over a rectangular cavity with a length-to-depth ratio of $6$ at a Mach number of $1.4$ and a Reynolds number based on cavity depth of $10\,000$. Large-eddy simulations (LES) of the baseline uncontrolled flow reveal the dominance of Rossiter modes II and IV that generate high-amplitude unsteadiness via trailing-edge impingement and oblique shock waves that obstruct the free stream. To suppress the oscillations, we introduce three-dimensional unsteady blowing along the cavity leading edge. We leverage resolvent analysis as a linear model with respect to the baseline flow to guide the selections of the optimal spanwise wavenumber and frequency of the unsteady actuation input for a fixed momentum coefficient of 0.02. Instead of choosing the most amplified resolvent forcing modes, we seek a disturbance that yields sustained amplification of the primary response mode-based kinetic energy distribution over the entire cavity length. This necessary but not sufficient guideline for effective mean flow modification is evaluated using LES of the controlled cavity flows. The most effective control case reduces the pressure root mean square level up to $52\,\%$ along cavity walls relative to the baseline and is approximately twice that achievable by comparable steady blowing. Dynamic mode decomposition on the controlled flows confirms that the optimal actuation input indeed suppresses the formation of the large-scale Rossiter modes. It is expected that the present flow control guideline derived from resolvent analysis will also be applicable at higher Reynolds numbers with the aid of physical insights and further validation.

We report on the design and first results from experiments looking at the formation of radiative shocks on the Shenguang-II (SG-II) laser at the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics in China. Laser-heating of a two-layer CH/CH–Br foil drives a $\sim 40$ km/s shock inside a gas cell filled with argon at an initial pressure of 1 bar. The use of gas-cell targets with large (several millimetres) lateral and axial extent allows the shock to propagate freely without any wall interactions, and permits a large field of view to image single and colliding counter-propagating shocks with time-resolved, point-projection X-ray backlighting ($\sim 20$ μm source size, 4.3 keV photon energy). Single shocks were imaged up to 100 ns after the onset of the laser drive, allowing to probe the growth of spatial nonuniformities in the shock apex. These results are compared with experiments looking at counter-propagating shocks, showing a symmetric drive that leads to a collision and stagnation from $\sim 40$ ns onward. We present a preliminary comparison with numerical simulations with the radiation hydrodynamics code ARWEN, which provides expected plasma parameters for the design of future experiments in this facility.

Introduction. It is critical to accurately identify individuals who continue to smoke even after treatment, as this may prompt the use of more intensive and effective treatment strategies to help them attain complete abstinence. Aims. This study examined optimal cutoffs for exhaled carbon monoxide (CO) and salivary cotinine to identify smokers among Korean Americans in a smoking cessation clinical trial. Methods. CO and cotinine were measured three to four times over 12 months from the quit day. Statistical analysis was conducted using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Results. A CO cutoff of 5 parts per million provided robust sensitivity (80.8-98.3%) and perfect specificity (100%), and a salivary cotinine cutoff of level 2 (30-100 ng/ml) provided the best sensitivity (91.2-95.6%) and perfect specificity (100%). Using these cutoffs, the agreement between self-reports and the two biomarkers ranged from 88.6% to 97.7%. The areas under ROC curves (AUCs) of exhaled CO ranged from 0.90 to 0.99, all of which were significant (all p values < 0.001), and the AUCs of salivary cotinine ranged from 0.96 to 0.98 (all p values < 0.001). Conclusion. Exhaled CO and salivary cotinine are complementary, and they should be used together to verify smoking abstinence for smokers in a clinical trial.

Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.

In the livestock husbandry compensatory growth may be explored as a means to improve nutrient utilization, to reduce gut health problems due to excess protein intake, to simplify feeding strategies and thus to improve production efficiencies. This study investigated the effects of early protein restriction (EPR) and early antibiotic intervention (EAI) on growth performance, intestinal morphology, colonic bacteria, metabolites and mucosal gene expressions during the restriction phase and re-alimentation phase. A total of 64 piglets (10.04 ± 0.73 kg) were randomly divided into four treatment groups according to a 2 × 2 factorial arrangement with two levels of proteins (14% v. 20%) and two levels of antibiotics (0 v. 50 mg/kg kitasamycin and 20 mg/kg colistin sulphate). After a 30-day restriction phase with four kinds of diets, all groups were fed the same diets for another 74 days. The results showed that EPR decreased BW, average daily gain (ADG), average daily feed intake in the restriction phase (P < 0.01) and increased ADG on days 66 to 104 of the late re-alimentation phase. Early protein restriction could decrease the villus height in the jejunum (P < 0.05), while shifting to the same diets restored the villus height. Meanwhile, during the re-alimentation phase, pigs in the protein restriction groups had increased concentrations of total short chain fatty acids (P < 0.05), and modified the abundances of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes in the colon. Furthermore, the lower microbial diversity caused by EPR was improved, and gene expression analysis indicated a better barrier function in the colon. During the whole trial, EAI had no interaction with EPR and played a dispensable role in compensatory growth. Collectively, the retardation of growth caused by EPR can be compensated for in the later stages of pig raising, and accompanied by altered intestinal morphology, microbial composition.

Designing effective control for complex three-dimensional flow fields proves to be non-trivial. Often, intuitive control strategies lead to suboptimal control. To navigate the control space, we use a linear parabolized stability analysis to guide the design of a control scheme for a trailing vortex flow field aft of a NACA0012 half-wing at an angle of attack $\unicode[STIX]{x1D6FC}=5^{\circ }$ and a chord-based Reynolds number $Re=1000$. The stability results show that the unstable mode with the smallest growth rate (fifth wake mode) provides a pathway to excite a vortex instability, whereas the principal unstable mode does not. Inspired by this finding, we perform direct numerical simulations that excite each mode with body forces matching the shape function from the stability analysis. Relative to the uncontrolled case, the controlled flows show increased attenuation of circulation and peak streamwise vorticity, with the fifth-mode-based control set-up outperforming the principal-mode-based set-up. From these results, we conclude that a rudimentary linear stability analysis can provide key insights into the underlying physics and help engineers design effective physics-based flow control strategies.

The role that vitamin D plays in pulmonary function remains uncertain. Epidemiological studies reported mixed findings for serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D)–pulmonary function association. We conducted the largest cross-sectional meta-analysis of the 25(OH)D–pulmonary function association to date, based on nine European ancestry (EA) cohorts (n 22 838) and five African ancestry (AA) cohorts (n 4290) in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology Consortium. Data were analysed using linear models by cohort and ancestry. Effect modification by smoking status (current/former/never) was tested. Results were combined using fixed-effects meta-analysis. Mean serum 25(OH)D was 68 (sd 29) nmol/l for EA and 49 (sd 21) nmol/l for AA. For each 1 nmol/l higher 25(OH)D, forced expiratory volume in the 1st second (FEV1) was higher by 1·1 ml in EA (95 % CI 0·9, 1·3; P<0·0001) and 1·8 ml (95 % CI 1·1, 2·5; P<0·0001) in AA (Prace difference=0·06), and forced vital capacity (FVC) was higher by 1·3 ml in EA (95 % CI 1·0, 1·6; P<0·0001) and 1·5 ml (95 % CI 0·8, 2·3; P=0·0001) in AA (Prace difference=0·56). Among EA, the 25(OH)D–FVC association was stronger in smokers: per 1 nmol/l higher 25(OH)D, FVC was higher by 1·7 ml (95 % CI 1·1, 2·3) for current smokers and 1·7 ml (95 % CI 1·2, 2·1) for former smokers, compared with 0·8 ml (95 % CI 0·4, 1·2) for never smokers. In summary, the 25(OH)D associations with FEV1 and FVC were positive in both ancestries. In EA, a stronger association was observed for smokers compared with never smokers, which supports the importance of vitamin D in vulnerable populations.

Extensive insecticide use has led to the resistance of mosquitoes to these insecticides, posing a major barrier to mosquito control. Previous Solexa high-throughput sequencing of Culex pipiens pallens in the laboratory has revealed that the abundance of a novel microRNA (miRNA), miR-13664, was higher in a deltamethrin-sensitive (DS) strain than a deltamethrin-resistant (DR) strain. Real-time quantitative PCR revealed that the miR-13664 transcript level was lower in the DR strain than in the DS strain. MiR-13664 oversupply in the DR strain increased the susceptibility of these mosquitoes to deltamethrin, whereas inhibition of miR-13664 made the DS strain more resistant to deltamethrin. Results of bioinformatic analysis, quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction, luciferase assay and miR mimic/inhibitor microinjection revealed CpCYP314A1 to be a target of miR-13664. In addition, downregulation of CpCYP314A1 expression in the DR strain reduced the resistance of mosquitoes to deltamethrin. Taken together, our results indicate that miR-13664 could regulate deltamethrin resistance by interacting with CpCYP314A1, providing new insights into mosquito resistance mechanisms.