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Contributors
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- By Douglas L. Arnold, Laura J. Balcer, Amit Bar-Or, Sergio E. Baranzini, Frederik Barkhof, Robert A. Bermel, Francois A. Bethoux, Dennis N. Bourdette, Richard K. Burt, Peter A. Calabresi, Zografos Caramanos, Tanuja Chitnis, Stacey S. Cofield, Jeffrey A. Cohen, Nadine Cohen, Alasdair J. Coles, Devon Conway, Stuart D. Cook, Gary R. Cutter, Peter J. Darlington, Ann Dodds-Frerichs, Ranjan Dutta, Gilles Edan, Michelle Fabian, Franz Fazekas, Massimo Filippi, Elizabeth Fisher, Paulo Fontoura, Corey C. Ford, Robert J. Fox, Natasha Frost, Alex Z. Fu, Siegrid Fuchs, Kazuo Fujihara, Kristin M. Galetta, Jeroen J.G. Geurts, Gavin Giovannoni, Nada Gligorov, Ralf Gold, Andrew D. Goodman, Myla D. Goldman, Jenny Guerre, Stephen L. Hauser, Peter B. Imrey, Douglas R. Jeffery, Stephen E. Jones, Adam I. Kaplin, Michael W. Kattan, B. Mark Keegan, Kyle C. Kern, Zhaleh Khaleeli, Samia J. Khoury, Joep Killestein, Soo Hyun Kim, R. Philip Kinkel, Stephen C. Krieger, Lauren B. Krupp, Emmanuelle Le Page, David Leppert, Scott Litwiller, Fred D. Lublin, Henry F. McFarland, Joseph C. McGowan, Don Mahad, Jahangir Maleki, Ruth Ann Marrie, Paul M. Matthews, Francesca Milanetti, Aaron E. Miller, Deborah M. Miller, Xavier Montalban, Charity J. Morgan, Ichiro Nakashima, Sridar Narayanan, Avindra Nath, Paul W. O’Connor, Jorge R. Oksenberg, A. John Petkau, Michael D. Phillips, J. Theodore Phillips, Tammy Phinney, Sean J. Pittock, Sarah M. Planchon, Chris H. Polman, Alexander Rae-Grant, Stephen M. Rao, Stephen C. Reingold, Maria A. Rocca, Richard A. Rudick, Amber R. Salter, Paula Sandler, Jaume Sastre-Garriga, John R. Scagnelli, Dana J. Serafin, Lynne Shinto, Nancy L. Sicotte, Jack H. Simon, Per Soelberg Sørensen, Ryan E. Stagg, James M. Stankiewicz, Lael A. Stone, Amy Sullivan, Matthew Sutliff, Jessica Szpak, Alan J. Thompson, Bruce D. Trapp, Helen Tremlett, Maria Trojano, Orla Tuohy, Rhonda R. Voskuhl, Marc K. Walton, Mike P. Wattjes, Emmanuelle Waubant, Martin S. Weber, Howard L Weiner, Brian G. Weinshenker, Bianca Weinstock-Guttman, Jeffrey L. Winters, Jerry S. Wolinsky, Vijayshree Yadav, E. Ann Yeh, Scott S. Zamvil
- Edited by Jeffrey A. Cohen, Richard A. Rudick
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- Book:
- Multiple Sclerosis Therapeutics
- Published online:
- 05 December 2011
- Print publication:
- 20 October 2011, pp viii-xii
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- Chapter
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Towards a comprehensive simulation model of malaria epidemiology and control
- T. SMITH, N. MAIRE, A. ROSS, M. PENNY, N. CHITNIS, A. SCHAPIRA, A. STUDER, B. GENTON, C. LENGELER, F. TEDIOSI, D. DE SAVIGNY, M. TANNER
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- Journal:
- Parasitology / Volume 135 / Issue 13 / November 2008
- Published online by Cambridge University Press:
- 11 August 2008, pp. 1507-1516
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- Article
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Planning of the control of Plasmodium falciparum malaria leads to a need for models of malaria epidemiology that provide realistic quantitative prediction of likely epidemiological outcomes of a wide range of control strategies. Predictions of the effects of control often ignore medium- and long-term dynamics. The complexities of the Plasmodium life-cycle, and of within-host dynamics, limit the applicability of conventional deterministic malaria models. We use individual-based stochastic simulations of malaria epidemiology to predict the impacts of interventions on infection, morbidity, mortality, health services use and costs. Individual infections are simulated by stochastic series of parasite densities, and naturally acquired immunity acts by reducing densities. Morbidity and mortality risks, and infectiousness to vectors, depend on parasite densities. The simulated infections are nested within simulations of individuals in human populations, and linked to models of interventions and health systems. We use numerous field datasets to optimise parameter estimates. By using a volunteer computing system we obtain the enormous computational power required for model fitting, sensitivity analysis, and exploration of many different intervention strategies. The project thus provides a general platform for comparing, fitting, and evaluating different model structures, and for quantitative prediction of effects of different interventions and integrated control programmes.