Income security when health impairment or other social risks occur is a major objective of welfare states. This comparative study uses register data from four Nordic welfare states for examining equivalized disposable income during the last 12 years alive among men and women who died when aged 55–69 years old. The analysed outcome indicates the aggregate result of a varied set of income maintenance mechanisms. Median income increased in the Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish samples, but decreased somewhat in Denmark, probably due to relatively frequent transitions to retirement and larger income drops after retirement than in the other Nordic countries. Analyses of comparison samples weighted by propensity scores indicated a better income development among those who lived beyond the observation period than among those who died. The higher educated had a more favourable income development during the years prior to death than those with low education.

Socio-economic circumstances influence later-life employment participation, which may take different forms as retirement processes are complex. We aimed to explore the diverse effects of various socio-economic sub-domains on pre- and post-retirement employment. We used Finnish register data to examine socio-economic predictors of time to retirement (i.e. receiving the statutory pension) using Cox regression analysis and on time spent in post-retirement employment using repeated negative binomial regression analysis over a follow-up between the ages of 63 and 68, i.e. the flexible pension age range. An average wage earner still employed at age 62 spent 13.5 months in pre-retirement employment (this corresponds to time to retirement) and 4.8 months in post-retirement employment. Those with tertiary education retired later, but the educational differences in the total time spent in employment were small when post-retirement employment was also considered. There was little variation in the timing of retirement by household income, but those in the highest quintile spent the longest time in post-retirement employment. Upper non-manual employees, home renters and those with high household debt retired later, and those with high household debt also spent a longer time in post-retirement employment. In a national flexible pension age system, high occupational class and household income thus appear to encourage either later retirement or participation in post-retirement employment. However, economic constraints also appear to necessitate continued employment.

This study uses a discordant sibling-based design to assess the extent to which education is proxying for pre-adult experiences and predispositions rooted in the family. It draws on a unique data set that combines official voting records with Census data on siblings and their parents. The results show that the association between education and voting is considerably reduced when parental education, parental voting and unobserved characteristics that are shared by siblings within the same family are taken into account. This finding is confirmed by a variety of robustness checks. We end with a discussion of the benefits and limitations of sibling-based designs for testing causal hypotheses.

Changes in household structure may have a major impact on the future wellbeing of older people. We evaluate changes in living arrangements of 65+ Finnish men and women from 1987 to 2011 and project living arrangements to 2035 by education level. We use an 11 per cent longitudinal sample of Finns drawn from the population registration data. We estimate proportions in various living arrangements and multi-state life table estimates of years lived in particular states. Projections are based on dynamic transition probability forecasts with constant and changing rates. We show that women more than men tend to live alone at older ages. These proportions are likely to start to decline slowly among women, particularly at 80+, but increase or stabilise among men. Apart from living with a marital or co-habiting partner, other living arrangements are growing increasingly rare. The number of basic educated older people is declining rapidly. Educational differences in living arrangements are modest among women, but among men living with a partner is more common among the higher educated. Future living arrangements of older people are strongly determined by past partnership behaviour and future changes in mortality. If life expectancy differences between men and women continue to converge, so will sex differences in the remaining years of life spent living with a partner.

The associations between height and reproductive success in humans have attracted long-time scientific interest, but in addition to rather mixed previous results, little is still known about the background mechanisms of these associations. We analyzed the association of adult height with age at first birth and lifetime reproductive success using a twin study design that is able to optimally take into account family background and estimate the contributions of genetic and environmental factors. Information on live births as of June 2009 for 7,830 Finnish twins born 1950–1957 was extracted from the national population register. We found evidence for non-linear associations in men, as men in the third sex-specific height quintile had the highest probability of having one to two children, or three or more children at individual level analyses, and also to have any children when analyzing twin pairs discordant for height. Furthermore, the probability of having a spouse was highest in the third height category in men. Short stature was associated with earlier age at first birth in females, explained by correlated genetic factors, but not with lifetime number of children or having a spouse. Our results suggest that average stature may give some advantage for reproduction in males. In females, genetic factors explained the association between short stature and young age at first birth, which may suggest the role of hormonal factors.

Future increases in need of old-age care warrant research on receipt of informal care among older people in different policy and cultural contexts. Separating informal care into help provided by spouse and by children may shed more light on dynamics of informal help, important in alleviating the demands on the formal sector. Using nationally representative data from England and Finland, we performed logistic regression analyses to study receipt of help from spouse and children among community-dwelling persons aged 70+ years with functional limitations. In both countries, women and those with more functional limitations had higher odds of receiving spousal and filial help. In England – but not in Finland – those receiving formal public help had lower odds of receiving spousal help than those with no formal help. Those with low education received more filial help in England, but no association was found between formal and filial help. In Finland, the effect of education was not significant but those receiving formal help had higher odds of also receiving filial help. The results suggest that in a liberal market-led state, the role of children may be to help their parents living alone and with low financial resources. In the context of a generous welfare state, children may function more as active agents bridging the gap between their parents and formal services.

This study revisits the debate on the ‘red herring’, i.e. the claim that population aging will not have a significant impact on health care expenditure (HCE), using a Finnish data set. We decompose HCE into several components and include both survivors and deceased individuals into the analyses. We also compare the predictions of health expenditure based on a model that takes into account the proximity to death with the predictions of a naïve model, which includes only age and gender and their interactions. We extend our analysis to include income as an explanatory variable. According to our results, total expenditure on health care and care of elderly people increases with age but the relationship is not as clear as is usually assumed when a naïve model is used in health expenditure projections. Among individuals not in long-term care, we found a clear positive relationship between expenditure and age only for health centre and psychiatric inpatient care. In somatic care and prescribed drugs, the expenditure clearly decreased with age among deceased individuals. Our results emphasize that even in the future, health care expenditure might be driven more by changes in the propensity to move into long-term care and medical technology than age and gender alone, as often claimed in public discussion. We do not find any strong positive associations between income and expenditure for most non-LTC categories of health care utilization. Income was positively related to expenditure on prescribed medicines, in which cost-sharing between the state and the individual is relatively high. Overall, our results indicate that the future expenditure is more likely to be determined by health policy actions than inevitable trends in the demographic composition of the population.