On October 27, 2015 China hawks got what they had long demanded: a US Navy Freedom of Navigation operation (aka FONOP) within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef, one of China's manmade islands in the South China Sea.

America is learning that the South China Sea is called the South “China” Sea for a reason, despite patriotic efforts in various nations to rename it the “West Philippine Sea” or “East Vietnamese Sea”.

“To Hell and Back” is a phrase that can bear a pretty heavy metaphorical load when it comes to talking about the atomic bombings of Nagasaki and Hiroshima. It’s also the title of a book by Charles Pellegrino.

The data volumes generated by theWidefield ASKAP L-band Legacy All-sky Blind surveY atomic hydrogen (Hi) survey using the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP) necessitate greater automation and reliable automation in the task of source finding and cataloguing. To this end, we introduce and explore a novel deep learning framework for detecting low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) Hi sources in an automated fashion. Specifically, our proposed method provides an automated process for separating true Hi detections from false positives when used in combination with the source finding application output candidate catalogues. Leveraging the spatial and depth capabilities of 3D convolutional neural networks, our method is specifically designed to recognize patterns and features in three-dimensional space, making it uniquely suited for rejecting false-positive sources in low SNR scenarios generated by conventional linear methods. As a result, our approach is significantly more accurate in source detection and results in considerably fewer false detections compared to previous linear statistics-based source finding algorithms. Performance tests using mock galaxies injected into real ASKAP data cubes reveal our method’s capability to achieve near-100% completeness and reliability at a relatively low integrated SNR $\sim3-5$. An at-scale version of this tool will greatly maximise the science output from the upcoming widefield Hi surveys.

Education can be viewed as a control theory problem in which students seek ongoing exogenous input—either through traditional classroom teaching or other alternative training resources—to minimize the discrepancies between their actual and target (reference) performance levels. Using illustrative data from $n=784$\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$n=784$$\end{document} Dutch elementary school students as measured using the Math Garden, a web-based computer adaptive practice and monitoring system, we simulate and evaluate the outcomes of using off-line and finite memory linear quadratic controllers with constraintsto forecast students’ optimal training durations. By integrating population standards with each student’s own latent change information, we demonstrate that adoption of the control theory-guided, person- and time-specific training dosages could yield increased training benefits at reduced costs compared to students’ actual observed training durations, and a fixed-duration training scheme. The control theory approach also outperforms a linear scheme that provides training recommendations based on observed scores under noisy and the presence of missing data. Design-related issues such as ways to determine the penalty cost of input administration and the size of the control horizon window are addressed through a series of illustrative and empirically (Math Garden) motivated simulations.

A key objective for upcoming surveys, and when re-analysing archival data, is the identification of variable stellar sources. However, the selection of these sources is often complicated by the unavailability of light curve data. Utilising a self-organising map (SOM), we demonstrate the selection of diverse variable source types from a catalogue of variable and non-variable SDSS Stripe 82 sources whilst employing only the median $u-g$, $g-r$, $r-i$, and $i-z$ photometric colours for each source as input, without using source magnitudes. This includes the separation of main sequence variable stars that are otherwise degenerate with non-variable sources ($u-g$,$g-r$) and ($r-i$,$i-z$) colour-spaces. We separate variable sources on the main sequence from all other variable and non-variable sources with a purity of $80.0\%$ and completeness of $25.1\%$, figures which can be modified depending on the application. We also explore the varying ability of the same method to simultaneously select other types of variable sources from the heterogeneous sample, including variable quasars and RR-Lyrae stars. The demonstrated ability of this method to select variable main sequence stars in colour-space holds promise for application in future survey reduction pipelines and for the analysis of archival data, where light curves may not be available or may be prohibitively expensive to obtain.

A common statistical modelling paradigm used in actuarial pricing is (a) assuming that the possible loss model can be chosen from a dictionary of standard models; (b) selecting the model that provides the best trade-off between goodness of fit and complexity. Machine learning provides a rigorous framework for this selection/validation process. An alternative modelling paradigm, common in the sciences, is to prove the adequacy of a statistical model from first principles: for example, Planck’s distribution, which describes the spectral distribution of blackbody radiation empirically, was explained by Einstein by assuming that radiation is made of quantised harmonic oscillators (photons). In this working party we have been exploring the extent to which loss models, too, can be derived from first principles. Traditionally, the Poisson, negative binomial, and binomial distributions are used as loss count models because they are familiar and easy to work with. We show how reasoning from first principles naturally leads to non-stationary Poisson processes, Lévy processes, and multivariate Bernoulli processes depending on the context. For modelling severities, we build on previous research that shows  how graph theory can be used to model property-like losses. We show how the methodology can be extended to deal with business interruption/supply chain risks by considering networks with higher-order dependencies. For liability business, we show the theoretical and practical limitations of traditional models such as the lognormal distribution. We explore the question of where the ubiquitous power-law behaviour comes from, finding a natural explanation in random growth models. We also address the derivation of severity curves in territories where compensation tables are used. This research is foundational in nature, but its results may prove useful to practitioners by guiding model selection and elucidating the relationship between the features of a risk and the model’s parameters.

As TeV gamma-ray astronomy progresses into the era of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), instantaneously following up on gamma-ray transients is becoming more important than ever. To this end, a worldwide network of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes has been proposed. Australia is ideally suited to provide coverage of part of the Southern Hemisphere sky inaccessible to H.E.S.S. in Namibia and the upcoming CTA-South in Chile. This study assesses the sources detectable by a small, transient-focused array in Australia based on CTA telescope designs. The TeV emission of extragalactic sources (including the majority of gamma-ray transients) can suffer significant absorption by the extragalactic background light. As such, we explored the improvements possible by implementing stereoscopic and topological triggers, as well as lowered image cleaning thresholds, to access lower energies. We modelled flaring gamma-ray sources based on past measurements from the satellite-based gamma-ray telescope Fermi-LAT. We estimate that an array of four Medium-Sized Telescopes (MSTs) would detect $\sim$24 active galactic nucleus flares >5$\sigma$ per year, up to a redshift of $z\approx1.5$. Two MSTs achieved $\sim$80–90% of the detections of four MSTs. The modelled Galactic transients were detectable within the observation time of one night, 11 of the 21 modelled gamma-ray bursts were detectable, as were $\sim$10% of unidentified transients. An array of MST-class telescopes would thus be a valuable complementary telescope array for transient TeV gamma-ray astronomy.