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It remains unclear which individuals with subthreshold depression benefit most from psychological intervention, and what long-term effects this has on symptom deterioration, response and remission.
Aims
To synthesise psychological intervention benefits in adults with subthreshold depression up to 2 years, and explore participant-level effect-modifiers.
Method
Randomised trials comparing psychological intervention with inactive control were identified via systematic search. Authors were contacted to obtain individual participant data (IPD), analysed using Bayesian one-stage meta-analysis. Treatment–covariate interactions were added to examine moderators. Hierarchical-additive models were used to explore treatment benefits conditional on baseline Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9) values.
Results
IPD of 10 671 individuals (50 studies) could be included. We found significant effects on depressive symptom severity up to 12 months (standardised mean-difference [s.m.d.] = −0.48 to −0.27). Effects could not be ascertained up to 24 months (s.m.d. = −0.18). Similar findings emerged for 50% symptom reduction (relative risk = 1.27–2.79), reliable improvement (relative risk = 1.38–3.17), deterioration (relative risk = 0.67–0.54) and close-to-symptom-free status (relative risk = 1.41–2.80). Among participant-level moderators, only initial depression and anxiety severity were highly credible (P > 0.99). Predicted treatment benefits decreased with lower symptom severity but remained minimally important even for very mild symptoms (s.m.d. = −0.33 for PHQ-9 = 5).
Conclusions
Psychological intervention reduces the symptom burden in individuals with subthreshold depression up to 1 year, and protects against symptom deterioration. Benefits up to 2 years are less certain. We find strong support for intervention in subthreshold depression, particularly with PHQ-9 scores ≥ 10. For very mild symptoms, scalable treatments could be an attractive option.
A vast amount of clinical data are still stored in unstructured text. Automatic extraction of medical information from these data poses several challenges: high costs of clinical expertise, restricted computational resources, strict privacy regulations, and limited interpretability of model predictions. Recent domain adaptation and prompting methods using lightweight masked language models showed promising results with minimal training data and allow for application of well-established interpretability methods. We are first to present a systematic evaluation of advanced domain-adaptation and prompting methods in a lower-resource medical domain task, performing multi-class section classification on German doctor’s letters. We evaluate a variety of models, model sizes (further-pre)training and task settings, and conduct extensive class-wise evaluations supported by Shapley values to validate the quality of small-scale training data and to ensure interpretability of model predictions. We show that in few-shot learning scenarios, a lightweight, domain-adapted pretrained language model, prompted with just 20 shots per section class, outperforms a traditional classification model, by increasing accuracy from $48.6\%$ to $79.1\%$. By using Shapley values for model selection and training data optimization, we could further increase accuracy up to $84.3\%$. Our analyses reveal that pretraining of masked language models on general-language data is important to support successful domain-transfer to medical language, so that further-pretraining of general-language models on domain-specific documents can outperform models pretrained on domain-specific data only. Our evaluations show that applying prompting based on general-language pretrained masked language models combined with further-pretraining on medical-domain data achieves significant improvements in accuracy beyond traditional models with minimal training data. Further performance improvements and interpretability of results can be achieved, using interpretability methods such as Shapley values. Our findings highlight the feasibility of deploying powerful machine learning methods in clinical settings and can serve as a process-oriented guideline for lower-resource languages and domains such as clinical information extraction projects.
Although behavioral mechanisms in the association among depression, anxiety, and cancer are plausible, few studies have empirically studied mediation by health behaviors. We aimed to examine the mediating role of several health behaviors in the associations among depression, anxiety, and the incidence of various cancer types (overall, breast, prostate, lung, colorectal, smoking-related, and alcohol-related cancers).
Methods
Two-stage individual participant data meta-analyses were performed based on 18 cohorts within the Psychosocial Factors and Cancer Incidence consortium that had a measure of depression or anxiety (N = 319 613, cancer incidence = 25 803). Health behaviors included smoking, physical inactivity, alcohol use, body mass index (BMI), sedentary behavior, and sleep duration and quality. In stage one, path-specific regression estimates were obtained in each cohort. In stage two, cohort-specific estimates were pooled using random-effects multivariate meta-analysis, and natural indirect effects (i.e. mediating effects) were calculated as hazard ratios (HRs).
Results
Smoking (HRs range 1.04–1.10) and physical inactivity (HRs range 1.01–1.02) significantly mediated the associations among depression, anxiety, and lung cancer. Smoking was also a mediator for smoking-related cancers (HRs range 1.03–1.06). There was mediation by health behaviors, especially smoking, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and a higher BMI, in the associations among depression, anxiety, and overall cancer or other types of cancer, but effects were small (HRs generally below 1.01).
Conclusions
Smoking constitutes a mediating pathway linking depression and anxiety to lung cancer and smoking-related cancers. Our findings underline the importance of smoking cessation interventions for persons with depression or anxiety.
Considering the recently growing number of potentially traumatic events in Europe, the European Psychiatric Association undertook a study to investigate clinicians’ treatment choices for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
Methods
The case-based analysis included 611 participants, who correctly classified the vignette as a case of PTSD, from Central/ Eastern Europe (CEE) (n = 279), Southern Europe (SE) (n = 92), Northern Europe (NE) (n = 92), and Western Europe (WE) (N = 148).
Results
About 82% woulduse antidepressants (sertraline being the most preferred one). Benzodiazepines and antipsychotics were significantly more frequently recommended by participants from CEE (33 and 4%, respectively), compared to participants from NE (11 and 0%) and SE (9% and 3%). About 52% of clinicians recommended trauma-focused cognitive behavior therapy and 35% psychoeducation, irrespective of their origin. In the latent class analysis, we identified four distinct “profiles” of clinicians. In Class 1 (N = 367), psychiatrists would less often recommend any antidepressants. In Class 2 (N = 51), clinicians would recommend trazodone and prolonged exposure therapy. In Class 3 (N = 65), they propose mirtazapine and eye movement desensitization reprocessing therapy. In Class 4 (N = 128), clinicians propose different types of medications and cognitive processing therapy. About 50.1% of participants in each region stated they do not adhere to recognized treatment guidelines.
Conclusions
Clinicians’ decisions for PTSD are broadly similar among European psychiatrists, but regional differences suggest the need for more dialogue and education to harmonize practice across Europe and promote the use of guidelines.
Physical pain is a common issue in people with bipolar disorder (BD). It worsens mental health and quality of life, negatively impacts treatment response, and increases the risk of suicide. Lithium, which is prescribed in BD as a mood stabilizer, has shown promising effects on pain.
Methods
This naturalistic study included 760 subjects with BD ( FACE-BD cohort) divided in two groups: with and without self-reported pain (evaluated with the EQ-5D-5L questionnaire). In this sample, 176 subjects were treated with lithium salts. The objectives of the study were to determine whether patients receiving lithium reported less pain, and whether this effect was associated with the recommended mood-stabilizing blood concentration of lithium.
Results
Subjects with lithium intake were less likely to report pain (odds ratio [OR] = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.35–0.95; p = 0.036) after controlling for sociodemographic variables, BD type, lifetime history of psychiatric disorders, suicide attempt, personality traits, current depression and anxiety levels, sleep quality, and psychomotor activity. Subjects taking lithium were even less likely to report pain when lithium concentration in blood was ≥0.5 mmol/l (OR = 0.45, 95% CI, 0.24–0.79; p = 0.008).
Conclusions
This is the first naturalistic study to show lithium’s promising effect on pain in subjects suffering from BD after controlling for many confounding variables. This analgesic effect seems independent of BD severity and comorbid conditions. Randomized controlled trials are needed to confirm the analgesic effect of lithium salts and to determine whether lithium decreases pain in other vulnerable populations.
Individuals with bipolar disorders (BD) are at risk of premature death, mainly due to medical comorbidities. Childhood maltreatment might contribute to this medical morbidity, which remains underexplored in the literature.
Methods
We assessed 2891 outpatients with BD (according to DSM-IV criteria). Childhood maltreatment was assessed using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. Lifetime diagnoses for medical disorders were retrospectively assessed using a systematic interview and checked against medical notes. Medical morbidity was defined by the sum of medical disorders. We investigated associations between childhood maltreatment (neglect and abuse) and medical morbidity while adjusting for potential confounders.
Results
One quarter of individuals had no medical comorbidities, while almost half of them had at least two. Multivariable regression showed that childhood maltreatment (mainly abuse, but also sexual abuse) was associated with a higher medical morbidity. Medical morbidity was also associated with sex, age, body mass index, sleep disturbances, lifetime anxiety disorders and lifetime density of mood episodes. Childhood maltreatment was associated with an increased prevalence of four (i.e. migraine/headache, drug eruption, duodenal ulcer, and thyroid diseases) of the fifteen most frequent medical disorders, however with no difference in terms of age at onset.
Conclusions
This large cross-sectional study confirmed a high medical morbidity in BD and its association with childhood maltreatment. The assessment of childhood maltreatment in individuals with BD should be systematically included in routine care and the potential impact on physical health of psycho-social interventions targeting childhood maltreatment and its consequences should be evaluated.
In this book, an international group of public policy scholars revisit the stage of formulating policy solutions by investigating the basic political dimensions inherent to this critical phase of the policy process.
Due to adverse snow and cloud conditions, only a few inventories are available for the maritime glaciers in New Zealand. These are difficult to compare as different approaches and baseline data have been used to create them. In consequence, glacier fluctuations in New Zealand over the past two decades are only known for a few glaciers based on field observations. Here we present the results of a new inventory for the ‘year 2000’ (some scenes are from 2001 and 2002) that is based on glacier outlines from a recently published inventory for the year 2016 and allowed consistent change assessment for nearly 3000 glaciers over this period. The year 2000 inventory was created by manual on-screen digitizing using Landsat ETM+ satellite imagery (15 m panchromatic band) in the background and the year 2016 outlines as a starting point. Major challenges faced were late and early seasonal snow, clouds and shadow, the geo-location mismatch between Landsat and Sentinel-2 as well as the correct interpretation of ice patches and ice under debris cover. In total, we re-mapped 2967 glaciers covering an area of 885.5 km2 in 2000, which is 91.7 km2 (or 10.4%) more than the 793.8 km2 mapped in 2016. Area change rates (mean rate −0.65% a−1) increase towards smaller glaciers. Strongest area loss from 2000 to 2016 occurred at elevations ~1900 m but the highest relative loss was found below 800 m a.s.l. In total, 109 glaciers split into two or more entities and 264 had wasted away by 2016.
Converging evidence suggests that a subgroup of bipolar disorder (BD) with an early age at onset (AAO) may develop from aberrant neurodevelopment. However, the definition of early AAO remains unprecise. We thus tested which age cut-off for early AAO best corresponds to distinguishable neurodevelopmental pathways.
Methods
We analyzed data from the FondaMental Advanced Center of Expertise-Bipolar Disorder cohort, a naturalistic sample of 4421 patients. First, a supervised learning framework was applied in binary classification experiments using neurodevelopmental history to predict early AAO, defined either with Gaussian mixture models (GMM) clustering or with each of the different cut-offs in the range 14 to 25 years. Second, an unsupervised learning approach was used to find clusters based on neurodevelopmental factors and to examine the overlap between such data-driven groups and definitions of early AAO used for supervised learning.
Results
A young cut-off, i.e. 14 up to 16 years, induced higher separability [mean nested cross-validation test AUROC = 0.7327 (± 0.0169) for ⩽16 years]. Predictive performance deteriorated increasing the cut-off or setting early AAO with GMM. Similarly, defining early AAO below 17 years was associated with a higher degree of overlap with data-driven clusters (Normalized Mutual Information = 0.41 for ⩽17 years) relatively to other definitions.
Conclusions
Early AAO best captures distinctive neurodevelopmental patterns when defined as ⩽17 years. GMM-based definition of early AAO falls short of mapping to highly distinguishable neurodevelopmental pathways. These results should be used to improve patients' stratification in future studies of BD pathophysiology and biomarkers.
When people judge risk or the probability of a risky prospect, single case narratives can bias judgments when a statistical base-rate is also provided. In this work we investigate various methodological and procedural factors that may influence this narrative bias. We found that narratives had the strongest effect on a non-numerical risk measure, which was also the best predictor of behavioral intentions. In contrast, two scales for subjective probability reflected primarily statistical variations. We observed a negativity bias on the risk measure, such that the narratives increased rather than decreased risk perceptions, whereas the effect on probability judgments was symmetric. Additionally, we found no evidence that the narrative bias is solely produced by adherence to conversational norms. Finally, changing the absolute number of narratives reporting the focal event, while keeping their relative frequency constant, had no effect. Thus, individuals extract a representation of likelihood from a sample of single-case narratives, which drives the bias. These results show that the narrative bias is in part dependent on the measure used to assess it and underline the conceptual distinction between subjective probability and perceived risk.
Glacier monitoring has been internationally coordinated for more than 125 years. Despite this long history, there is no authoritative answer to the popular question: ‘Which glaciers are the largest in the world?’ Here, we present the first systematic assessment of this question and identify the largest glaciers in the world – distinct from the two ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica but including the glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. We identify the largest glaciers in two domains: on each of the seven geographical continents and in the 19 first-order glacier regions defined by the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers. Ranking glaciers by area is non-trivial. It depends on how a glacier is defined and mapped and also requires differentiating between a glacier and a glacier complex, i.e. glaciers that meet at ice divides such as ice caps and icefields. It also depends on the availability of a homogenized global glacier inventory. Using separate rankings for glaciers and glacier complexes, we find that the largest glacier complexes have areas on the order of tens of thousands of square kilometers whereas the largest glaciers are several thousands of square kilometers. The world's largest glaciers and glacier complexes are located in the Antarctic, Arctic and Patagonia.
The future contributions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise will depend on the evolution of its surface mass balance (SMB), which could amplify/dampen mass losses increasingly observed at the ice sheet's edge. In situ constraints of SMB over annual-to-decadal timescales consist mostly of firn/ice cores that have a surface footprint $\sim$cm$^{2}$. SMB constraints also come from climate models, which have a higher temporal resolution but a larger surface footprint of several km$^{2}$. We use ice-penetrating radar data to obtain an intermediate spatial and temporal resolution SMB record over three ice rises along the Princess Ragnhild Coast. The co-located ice cores allow us to obtain absolute radar-derived SMB rates at a multi-annual-to-decadal temporal resolution. By comparing the ice core SMB measurements and the radar-derived SMB records, we determine that pointwise measurements of SMB are representative of a small surface area, $\sim 200-500$ m radius extending from the ice core drill site for the ice rises studied here, and that the pointwise measurements are systematically 7–15 cm w.e. a$^{-1}$ lower than the mean SMB value calculated for the whole ice rises. However, ice core records are representative of an entire ice rise's temporal variability at the temporal resolution examined.
In the 1960s and 1970s, controversies related to the policy process began to emerge, in particular as they pertained to the policy decision-making process. Criticizing both pluralist theory and behaviouralist approaches, Schattschneider (1960), later followed by Cobb and Elder (1971, p 896) and Bachrach and Baratz (1970, p 44), suggested that the pre-decision process is a ‘highly restricted’ arena of conflicts in which some demands can be ‘suffocated’ or reinterpreted through the ‘manipulation of bias’ to prevent their emergence in decision arenas. This strategy was used to reduce the capacity of particular demands to attract the attention of decision makers and others, including the media and the general public. The authors insisted on recognizing the importance of the unequal political configurations of actors in the arena. Building on this perspective, Rochefort and Cobb (1994) published The Politics of Problem Definition, which helped to establish a link between definitional activities focused on problems and their asymmetric positions in relation to political power.
While this political perspective on the struggles surrounding problem definitions has been largely shared in policy studies by most authors and integrated into textbooks and handbooks about the policy process since the 1970s, the question of ‘policy formulation’ – referring to the specification of alternatives – has been studied using different approaches, including competing methodological perspectives, with no general consensus emerging. In so far as problem definition occurs within arenas of visible conflict in which dominant actors try to suppress opposing views, the formulation of solutions takes place in relatively hidden spaces where groups of dominant actors seek to contribute to the stability (or change) of the policy-making process by choosing and imposing their preferred solutions (Heclo and Wildavsky 1974; Richardson and Jordan 1979). As Kingdon (1984) observed, the contested and conflictual dynamic of problem definition contrasts with the incrementalist mode of policy formulation.
Focusing on the stability of policy solution formulation, Kingdon's perspective plays an important role in explaining policy change resulting from external factors that can disturb a punctuated equilibrium (Baumgartner and Jones 1993). Political conflict often appears outside the policy formulation process. Why, then, does the policy formulation stage appear as apolitical and non-conflictual in numerous studies?
Glaciers in the Alps and several other regions in the world have experienced strong negative mass balances over the past few decades. Some of them are disappearing, undergoing exceptionally negative mass balances that impact the mean regional value, and require replacement. In this study, we analyse the geomorphometric characteristics of 46 mass-balance glaciers in the Alps and the long-term mass-balance time series for a subset of nine reference glaciers. We identify regime shifts in the mass-balance time series (when non-climatic controls started impacting) and develop a glacier vulnerability index (GVI) as a proxy for their possible future development, based on criteria such as hypsometric index, breaks in slope, thickness distribution and elevation change pattern. We found that the subset of 46 mass-balance glaciers reflects the characteristics of the total glacier sample very well and identified a region-specific variability of the mass balance. As the GVI is strongly related to cumulative glacier mass balances, it can be used as a pre-selector of future mass-balance glaciers. We conclude that measurements on rapidly shrinking glaciers should be continued as long as possible to identify regime shifts in hind-cast and better understand the impacts of climatic variability on such glaciers.
Increased fruit and vegetable (FV) intake is associated with reduced blood pressure (BP). However, it is not clear whether the effect of FV on BP depends on the type of FV consumed. Furthermore, there is limited research regarding the comparative effect of juices or whole FV on BP. Baseline data from a prospective cohort study of 10 660 men aged 50–59 years examined not only the cross-sectional association between total FV intake but also specific types of FV and BP in France and Northern Ireland. BP was measured, and dietary intake assessed using FFQ. After adjusting for confounders, both systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were significantly inversely associated with total fruit, vegetable and fruit juice intake; however, when examined according to fruit or vegetable sub-type (citrus fruit, other fruit, fruit juices, cooked vegetables and raw vegetables), only the other fruit and raw vegetable categories were consistently associated with reduced SBP and DBP. In relation to the risk of hypertension based on SBP >140 mmHg, the OR for total fruit, vegetable and fruit juice intake (per fourth) was 0·95 (95 % CI 0·91, 1·00), with the same estimates being 0·98 (95 % CI 0·94, 1·02) for citrus fruit (per fourth), 1·02 (95 % CI 0·98, 1·06) for fruit juice (per fourth), 0·93 (95 % CI 0·89, 0·98) for other fruit (per fourth), 1·05 (95 % CI 0·99, 1·10) for cooked vegetable (per fourth) and 0·86 (95 % CI 0·80, 0·91) for raw vegetable intakes (per fourth). Similar results were obtained for DBP. In conclusion, a high overall intake of fruit, vegetables and fruit juice was inversely associated with SBP, DBP and risk of hypertension, but this differed by FV sub-type, suggesting that the strength of the association between FV sub-types and BP might be related to the type consumed, or to processing or cooking-related factors.
Recent years has seen an increasing interest in the hallucinatory experience, including investigations of its phenomenological prevalence and character both in pathological and normal (predisposed) populations. We investigated the multi-dimensionality of hallucinatory experiences in 265 subjects from the normal population, who completed a modified version of the Launay-Slade Hallucinations Scale. Principal components analysis was performed on the data. Four factors were obtained loading on items reflecting (1) sleep-related hallucinatory experiences (2) vivid daydreams (3) intrusive thoughts or realness of thought and (4) auditory hallucinations. The results offer further evidence of the multi-dimensionality of hallucinatory disposition in the normal population. Directions for future research in hallucinatory predisposition are discussed.