A consensus has yet to be reached on whether the appraisal of risk is best represented quantitatively (e.g. probability estimates) or qualitatively (e.g. formulation). A more fundamental issue, though, is how to use the agreed representation to inform practice so as to reduce the likelihood of harm. The real-world implementation of risk representations in clinical practice is dependent on how these representations inform clinical decision-making. Clinical decision-making takes place in a complex system of interacting agents, entities, and processes. To date, risk-related research and practice guidance has not paid sufficient attention to studying this system.

To develop a standardised model for representing those complex mental health systems in which appraisals of ‘risk of harm to others’ are used.

In order to identify a generally applicable representation of the system, practice experts in the field of risk of harm to others reflexively examined the systems within which they worked to firstly identify the actual individual agents, entities and processes in their systems. A thematic review of the elements was then undertaken so as the inform the development of more generally applicable characterisation of the system for wider use.

The generalisable characterisation of the system (with illustrative local examples in parenthesis) is presented in Figure 1.Image 1:

Risk-related practice by mental health clinicians involves the development of quantitative and/or qualitative representations of risk which are used to guide decisions. In practice, the use of the risk representations to guide decisions is also heavily dependent on the complex system in which the decisions are made. This study has generated a model to characterise risk-related systems which can be used for service improvement and planning, and for future research into risk-related practice.

None Declared

Describe the hemodynamic implications of anaesthetic choice among children with heart disease undergoing cardiac catheterisation.

Study 1 was a secondary analysis of data obtained during catheterisation-based hemodynamic assessment of infants with hypoplastic left heart syndrome following Stage 1 palliation, randomised in the Single Ventricle Reconstruction trial. Measured and calculated hemodynamics including pulmonary and systemic vascular resistance indexed to body surface area (PVRi and SVRi respectively) and pulmonary/systemic blood flow (Qp/Qs) were analysed with respect to anaesthetic employed during catheterisation, classified as moderate sedation or general anaesthesia. Study 2 consisted of a single centre, prospective analysis of patients requiring percutaneous closure of a patent ductus arteriosus or endomyocardial biopsy after orthotopic heart transplant. Participants underwent hemodynamic assessment first using inhaled volatile anaesthesia (IA), and then transitioned to total intravenous anaesthesia, comparing hemodynamic measures with respect to anaesthetic approach.

In Study 1, independent of shunt type, PVRi, and patient size, moderate sedation was associated with a greater than two-fold odds of a Qp/Qs >1 (OR 2.12, 95%CI 1.18–3.87, p = 0.013). In Study 2, while PVRi was similar, SVRi was significantly higher using total intravenous anaesthesia. Among the patent ductus arteriosus subgroup, Qp/Qs increased significantly with a total intravenous anaesthesia relative to IA (p = 0.003); additionally, among the orthotopic heart transplant subgroup, left ventricular end diastolic pressure increased following a transition to total intravenous anaesthesia (p = 0.002).

Analyses of hemodynamics during catheterisation support a significant impact of anaesthetic type on hemodynamic values including SVRi, left ventricular end diastolic pressure, and Qp/Qs. Anaesthesia choice and intraprocedural management of SVRi are important considerations when making clinical decisions based on hemodynamic data.

Genetic research on nicotine dependence has utilized multiple assessments that are in weak agreement.

We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of nicotine dependence defined using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-NicDep) in 61,861 individuals (47,884 of European ancestry [EUR], 10,231 of African ancestry, and 3,746 of East Asian ancestry) and compared the results to other nicotine-related phenotypes.

We replicated the well-known association at the CHRNA5 locus (lead single-nucleotide polymorphism [SNP]: rs147144681, p = 1.27E−11 in EUR; lead SNP = rs2036527, p = 6.49e−13 in cross-ancestry analysis). DSM-NicDep showed strong positive genetic correlations with cannabis use disorder, opioid use disorder, problematic alcohol use, lung cancer, material deprivation, and several psychiatric disorders, and negative correlations with respiratory function and educational attainment. A polygenic score of DSM-NicDep predicted DSM-5 tobacco use disorder criterion count and all 11 individual diagnostic criteria in the independent National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions-III sample. In genomic structural equation models, DSM-NicDep loaded more strongly on a previously identified factor of general addiction liability than a “problematic tobacco use” factor (a combination of cigarettes per day and nicotine dependence defined by the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence). Finally, DSM-NicDep showed a strong genetic correlation with a GWAS of tobacco use disorder as defined in electronic health records (EHRs).

Our results suggest that combining the wide availability of diagnostic EHR data with nuanced criterion-level analyses of DSM tobacco use disorder may produce new insights into the genetics of this disorder.

Bipolar depression remains difficult to treat, and people often experience ongoing residual symptoms, decreased functioning and impaired quality of life. Adjunctive therapies targeting novel pathways can provide wider treatment options and improve clinical outcomes. Garcinia mangostana Linn. (mangosteen) pericarp has serotonogenic, antioxidant anti-inflammatory and neurogenic properties of relevance to the mechanisms of bipolar depression.

The current 28-week randomised, multisite, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial investigated mangosteen pericarp extract as an adjunct to treatment-as-usual for treatment of bipolar depression.

This trial was prospectively registered on the Australia New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (no. ACTRN12616000028404). Participants aged 18 years and older with a diagnosis of bipolar I or II and with at least moderate depressive symptoms were eligible for the study. A total of 1016 participants were initially approached or volunteered for the study, of whom 712 did not progress to screening, with an additional 152 screened out. Seventy participants were randomly allocated to mangosteen and 82 to a placebo control. Fifty participants in the mangosteen and 64 participants in the placebo condition completed the treatment period and were analysed.

Results indicated limited support for the primary hypothesis of superior depression symptom reduction following 24 weeks of treatment. Although overall changes in depressive symptoms did not substantially differ between conditions over the course of the trial, we observed significantly greater improvements for the mangosteen condition at 24 weeks, compared with baseline, for mood symptoms, clinical impressions of bipolar severity and social functioning compared with controls. These differences were attenuated at week 28 post-discontinuation assessment.

Adjunctive mangosteen pericarp treatment appeared to have limited efficacy in mood and functional symptoms associated with bipolar disorder, but not with manic symptoms or quality of life, suggesting a novel therapeutic approach that should be verified by replication.

Placebo and nocebo effects are widely reported across psychiatric conditions, yet have seldom been examined in the context of gambling disorder. Through meta-analysis, we examined placebo effects, their moderating factors, and nocebo effects, from available randomised, controlled pharmacological clinical trials in gambling disorder.

We searched, up to 19 February 2024, a broad range of databases, for double-blind randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of medications for gambling disorder. Outcomes were gambling symptom severity and quality of life (for efficacy), and drop outs due to medication side effects in the placebo arms.

We included 16 RCTs (n = 833) in the meta-analysis. The overall effect size for gambling severity reduction in the placebo arms was 1.18 (95%CI 0.91–1.46) and for quality of life improvement was 0.63 (0.42-0.83). Medication class, study sponsorship, trial duration, baseline severity of gambling and publication year significantly moderated effect sizes for at least some of these outcome measures. Author conflict of interest, placebo run-in, gender split, severity scale choice, age of participants or unbalanced randomisation did not moderate effect sizes. Nocebo effects leading to drop out from the trial were observed in 6% of participants in trials involving antipsychotics, while this was less for other medication types.

Placebo effects in trials of pharmacological treatment of gambling disorder are large, and there are several moderators of this effect. Nocebo effects were measureable and may be influenced by medication class being studied. Practical implications of these new findings for the field are discussed, along with recommendations for future clinical trials.

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is an evidenced based treatment for adults with treatment resistant depression (TRD). The standard clinical protocol for TMS is to stimulate the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Although the DLPFC is a defining region in the cognitive control network of the brain and implicated in executive functions such as attention and working memory, we lack knowledge about whether TMS improves cognitive function independent of depression symptoms. This exploratory analysis sought to address this gap in knowledge by assessing changes in attention before and after completion of a standard treatment with TMS in Veterans with TRD.

Participants consisted of 7 Veterans (14.3% female; age M = 46.14, SD = 7.15; years education M = 16.86, SD = 3.02) who completed a full 30-session course of TMS treatment and had significant depressive symptoms at baseline (Patient Health Questionnaire-9; PHQ-9 score >5). Participants were given neurocognitive assessments measuring aspects of attention [Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale 4th Edition (WAIS-IV) subtests: Digits Forward, Digits Backward, and Number Sequencing) at baseline and again after completion of TMS treatment. The relationship between pre and post scores were examined using paired-samples t-test for continuous variables and a linear regression to covary for depression and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which is often comorbid with depression in Veteran populations.

There was a significant improvement in Digit Span Forward (p=.01, d=-.53), but not Digit Span Backward (p=.06) and Number Sequencing (p=.54) post-TMS treatment. Depression severity was not a significant predictor of performance on Digit Span Forward (f(1,5)=.29, p=.61) after TMS treatment. PTSD severity was also not a significant predictor of performance on Digit Span Forward (f(1,5)=1.31, p=.32).

Findings suggested that a standard course of TMS improves less demanding measures of working memory after a full course of TMS, but possibly not the more demanding aspects of working memory. This improvement in cognitive function was independent of improvements in depression and PTSD symptoms. Further investigation in a larger sample and with direct neuroimaging measures of cognitive function is warranted.

Despite the availability of remote consolation and the evidence for its effectiveness, its adoption has been relatively limited (Hashiguchi, 2020). In light of COVID social distancing measures, there was an immediate requirement to adopt this technology into routine practice.

The objective of this evaluation was to examine clinicians’ experiences of the urgent adoption of digital technology in a NHS provider of mental health and community physical health services.

From a staff survey (n=234) of experiences of working during a period when there were significant levels of Covid-related restrictions, data was extracted and subject to thematic analysis by a research team made up of clinicians, academics, and quality improvement specialists.

Five key themes relevant to the urgent adoption of digital technology were identified (figure 1): (1) Availability of staff for patient contact was generally felt to be improved; (2) Quality of contact was reported to be variable (e.g. some respondents reporting better rapport with patients, whereas others found remote contact interfered with rapport building); (3) Safeguarding concerns were reported to be more difficult to identify through remote consultation; (4) Contingency plans were recommended to allow for vulnerable patients for whom remote consultation was a problem; (5) Multi-agency working was reported to be strengthened.

The findings from this evaluation allow for an informed approach to future adoption of remote consultation in routine practice.

No significant relationships.

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) systems have developed protocols for prehospital activation of the cardiac catheterization laboratory for patients with suspected ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) to decrease first-medical-contact-to-balloon time (FMC2B). The rate of “false positive” prehospital activations is high. In order to decrease this rate and expedite care for patients with true STEMI, the American Heart Association (AHA; Dallas, Texas USA) developed the Mission Lifeline PreAct STEMI algorithm, which was implemented in Los Angeles County (LAC; California USA) in 2015. The hypothesis of this study was that implementation of the PreAct algorithm would increase the positive predictive value (PPV) of prehospital activation.

This is an observational pre-/post-study of the effect of the implementation of the PreAct algorithm for patients with suspected STEMI transported to one of five STEMI Receiving Centers (SRCs) within the LAC Regional System. The primary outcome was the PPV of cardiac catheterization laboratory activation for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) or coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). The secondary outcome was FMC2B.

A total of 1,877 patients were analyzed for the primary outcome in the pre-intervention period and 405 patients in the post-intervention period. There was an overall decrease in cardiac catheterization laboratory activations, from 67% in the pre-intervention period to 49% in the post-intervention period (95% CI for the difference, -14% to -22%). The overall rate of cardiac catheterization declined in post-intervention period as compared the pre-intervention period, from 34% to 30% (95% CI, for the difference -7.6% to 0.4%), but actually increased for subjects who had activation (48% versus 58%; 95% CI, 4.6%-15.0%). Implementation of the PreAct algorithm was associated with an increase in the PPV of activation for PCI or CABG from 37.9% to 48.6%. The overall odds ratio (OR) associated with the intervention was 1.4 (95% CI, 1.1-1.8). The effect of the intervention was to decrease variability between medical centers. There was no associated change in average FMC2B.

The implementation of the PreAct algorithm in the LAC EMS system was associated with an overall increase in the PPV of cardiac catheterization laboratory activation.

Registry-based trials have emerged as a potentially cost-saving study methodology. Early estimates of cost savings, however, conflated the benefits associated with registry utilisation and those associated with other aspects of pragmatic trial designs, which might not all be as broadly applicable. In this study, we sought to build a practical tool that investigators could use across disciplines to estimate the ranges of potential cost differences associated with implementing registry-based trials versus standard clinical trials.

We built simulation Markov models to compare unique costs associated with data acquisition, cleaning, and linkage under a registry-based trial design versus a standard clinical trial. We conducted one-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses, varying study characteristics over broad ranges, to determine thresholds at which investigators might optimally select each trial design.

Registry-based trials were more cost effective than standard clinical trials 98.6% of the time. Data-related cost savings ranged from $4300 to $600,000 with variation in study characteristics. Cost differences were most reactive to the number of patients in a study, the number of data elements per patient available in a registry, and the speed with which research coordinators could manually abstract data. Registry incorporation resulted in cost savings when as few as 3768 independent data elements were available and when manual data abstraction took as little as 3.4 seconds per data field.

Registries offer important resources for investigators. When available, their broad incorporation may help the scientific community reduce the costs of clinical investigation. We offer here a practical tool for investigators to assess potential costs savings.

Using existing data from clinical registries to support clinical trials and other prospective studies has the potential to improve research efficiency. However, little has been reported about staff experiences and lessons learned from implementation of this method in pediatric cardiology.

We describe the process of using existing registry data in the Pediatric Heart Network Residual Lesion Score Study, report stakeholders’ perspectives, and provide recommendations to guide future studies using this methodology.

The Residual Lesion Score Study, a 17-site prospective, observational study, piloted the use of existing local surgical registry data (collected for submission to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons-Congenital Heart Surgery Database) to supplement manual data collection. A survey regarding processes and perceptions was administered to study site and data coordinating center staff.

Survey response rate was 98% (54/55). Overall, 57% perceived that using registry data saved research staff time in the current study, and 74% perceived that it would save time in future studies; 55% noted significant upfront time in developing a methodology for extracting registry data. Survey recommendations included simplifying data extraction processes and tailoring to the needs of the study, understanding registry characteristics to maximise data quality and security, and involving all stakeholders in design and implementation processes.

Use of existing registry data was perceived to save time and promote efficiency. Consideration must be given to the upfront investment of time and resources needed. Ongoing efforts focussed on automating and centralising data management may aid in further optimising this methodology for future studies.

Despite established clinical associations among major depression (MD), alcohol dependence (AD), and alcohol consumption (AC), the nature of the causal relationship between them is not completely understood. We leveraged genome-wide data from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) and UK Biobank to test for the presence of shared genetic mechanisms and causal relationships among MD, AD, and AC.

Linkage disequilibrium score regression and Mendelian randomization (MR) were performed using genome-wide data from the PGC (MD: 135 458 cases and 344 901 controls; AD: 10 206 cases and 28 480 controls) and UK Biobank (AC-frequency: 438 308 individuals; AC-quantity: 307 098 individuals).

Positive genetic correlation was observed between MD and AD (rgMD−AD = + 0.47, P = 6.6 × 10−10). AC-quantity showed positive genetic correlation with both AD (rgAD−AC quantity = + 0.75, P = 1.8 × 10−14) and MD (rgMD−AC quantity = + 0.14, P = 2.9 × 10−7), while there was negative correlation of AC-frequency with MD (rgMD−AC frequency = −0.17, P = 1.5 × 10−10) and a non-significant result with AD. MR analyses confirmed the presence of pleiotropy among these four traits. However, the MD-AD results reflect a mediated-pleiotropy mechanism (i.e. causal relationship) with an effect of MD on AD (beta = 0.28, P = 1.29 × 10−6). There was no evidence for reverse causation.

This study supports a causal role for genetic liability of MD on AD based on genetic datasets including thousands of individuals. Understanding mechanisms underlying MD-AD comorbidity addresses important public health concerns and has the potential to facilitate prevention and intervention efforts.