Severity of personality disorder is an important determinant of future health. However, this key prognostic variable is not captured in routine clinical practice. Using a large clinical data-set, we explored the predictive validity of items from the Health of Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) as potential indicators of personality disorder severity. For 6912 patients with a personality disorder diagnosis, we examined associations between HoNOS items relating to core personality disorder symptoms (self-harm, difficulty in interpersonal relationships, performance of occupational and social roles, and agitation and aggression) and future health service use. Compared with those with no self-harm problem, the total healthcare cost was 2.74 times higher (95% CI 1.66–4.52; P < 0.001) for individuals with severe to very severe self-harm problems. Other HoNOS items did not demonstrate clear patterns of association with service costs. Self-harm may be a robust indicator of the severity of personality disorder, but further replication work is required.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has been a successful approach to optimize expensive functions whose prior knowledge can be specified by means of a probabilistic model. Due to their expressiveness and tractable closed-form predictive distributions, Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models have been the default go-to choice when deriving BO frameworks. However, as nonparametric models, GPs offer very little in terms of interpretability and informative power when applied to model complex physical phenomena in scientific applications. In addition, the Gaussian assumption also limits the applicability of GPs to problems where the variables of interest may highly deviate from Gaussianity. In this article, we investigate an alternative modeling framework for BO which makes use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to perform Bayesian inference with parametric models. We propose a BO algorithm to take advantage of SMC’s flexible posterior representations and provide methods to compensate for bias in the approximations and reduce particle degeneracy. Experimental results on simulated engineering applications in detecting water leaks and contaminant source localization are presented showing performance improvements over GP-based BO approaches.

We describe the incidence of suicidality (2007–2017) in people with depression treated by secondary mental healthcare services at South London and Maudsley NHS Trust (n = 26 412). We estimated yearly incidence of ‘suicidal ideation’ and ‘high risk of suicide’ from structured and free-text fields of the Clinical Record Interactive Search system. The incidence of suicidal ideation increased from 0.6 (2007) to 1 cases (2017) per 1000 population. The incidence of high risk of suicide, based on risk forms, varied between 0.06 and 0.50 cases per 1000 adult population (2008–2017). Electronic health records provide the opportunity to examine suicidality on a large scale, but the impact of service-related changes in the use of structured risk assessment should be considered.

We present an overview of the SkyMapper optical follow-up programme for gravitational-wave event triggers from the LIGO/Virgo observatories, which aims at identifying early GW170817-like kilonovae out to $\sim200\,\mathrm{Mpc}$ distance. We describe our robotic facility for rapid transient follow-up, which can target most of the sky at $\delta<+10\deg $ to a depth of $i_\mathrm{AB}\approx 20\,\mathrm{mag}$ . We have implemented a new software pipeline to receive LIGO/Virgo alerts, schedule observations and examine the incoming real-time data stream for transient candidates. We adopt a real-bogus classifier using ensemble-based machine learning techniques, attaining high completeness ( $\sim98\%$ ) and purity ( $\sim91\%$ ) over our whole magnitude range. Applying further filtering to remove common image artefacts and known sources of transients, such as asteroids and variable stars, reduces the number of candidates by a factor of more than 10. We demonstrate the system performance with data obtained for GW190425, a binary neutron star merger detected during the LIGO/Virgo O3 observing campaign. In time for the LIGO/Virgo O4 run, we will have deeper reference images allowing transient detection to $i_\mathrm{AB}\approx 21\,\mathrm{mag}$ .

We present the first data release of the SkyMapper Southern Survey, a hemispheric survey carried out with the SkyMapper Telescope at Siding Spring Observatory in Australia. Here, we present the survey strategy, data processing, catalogue construction, and database schema. The first data release dataset includes over 66 000 images from the Shallow Survey component, covering an area of 17 200 deg2 in all six SkyMapper passbands uvgriz, while the full area covered by any passband exceeds 20 000 deg2. The catalogues contain over 285 million unique astrophysical objects, complete to roughly 18 mag in all bands. We compare our griz point-source photometry with Pan-STARRS1 first data release and note an RMS scatter of 2%. The internal reproducibility of SkyMapper photometry is on the order of 1%. Astrometric precision is better than 0.2 arcsec based on comparison with Gaia first data release. We describe the end-user database, through which data are presented to the world community, and provide some illustrative science queries.

This paper presents the first major data release and survey description for the ANU WiFeS SuperNovA Programme. ANU WiFeS SuperNovA Programme is an ongoing supernova spectroscopy campaign utilising the Wide Field Spectrograph on the Australian National University 2.3-m telescope. The first and primary data release of this programme (AWSNAP-DR1) releases 357 spectra of 175 unique objects collected over 82 equivalent full nights of observing from 2012 July to 2015 August. These spectra have been made publicly available via the WISEREP supernova spectroscopy repository.

We analyse the ANU WiFeS SuperNovA Programme sample of Type Ia supernova spectra, including measurements of narrow sodium absorption features afforded by the high spectral resolution of the Wide Field Spectrograph instrument. In some cases, we were able to use the integral-field nature of the Wide Field Spectrograph instrument to measure the rotation velocity of the SN host galaxy near the SN location in order to obtain precision sodium absorption velocities. We also present an extensive time series of SN 2012dn, including a near-nebular spectrum which both confirms its ‘super-Chandrasekhar’ status and enables measurement of the sub-solar host metallicity at the SN site.