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from
Part V
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European nitrogen policies and future challenges
By
Dave S. Reay, University of Edinburgh School of Geosciences,
Clare M. Howard, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,
Albert Bleeker, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands,
Pete Higgins, University of Edinburgh,
Keith Smith, University of Edinburgh,
Henk Westhoek, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,
Trudy Rood, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,
Mark R. Theobald, Technical University of Madrid/Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,
Alberto Sanz Cobeña, Technical University of Madrid,
Robert M. Rees, Scottish Agricultural College,
Dominic Moran, Scottish Agricultural College,
Stefan Reis, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Increased public and institutional awareness of both the benefits and threats of nitrogen has the potential to greatly increase the efficacy of nitrogen policy.
Insufficient recognition of the financial, behavioural and cultural barriers to achieving an optimal nitrogen future risks policy antagonisms and failure.
Here we examine some of the key societal levers for and barriers to achieving an optimal nitrogen future in Europe, drawing lessons from the more-developed societal and policy challenge of climate change mitigation.
Key findings/state of knowledge
There is currently a very low level of public and media awareness of nitrogen impacts and policies. However, awareness is high regarding the threats and benefits of ‘carbon’ to society (e.g. energy use and enhanced climate change).
Many national climate change mitigation policies now overtly recognize the importance of societal choice, and are increasingly utilizing behavioural change strategies to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.
In achieving an optimal nitrogen future, lessons can and should be learned from existing climate change-focused communication and behavioural science (e.g. use of a ‘segmented strategy’ to reach disparate groups of stakeholders).
Key sectors where societal choice has the potential to greatly influence nitrogen use efficiency include food production, consumption and waste.
Accurate measurements of the 4He/H abundance ratio are important in constraining Big Bang nucleosynthesis, models of stellar and Galactic evolution, and H ii region physics. We discuss observations of radio recombination lines using the Green Bank Telescope toward a small sample of H ii regions and planetary nebulae. We report 4He/H abundance ratio differences as high as 15–20% between optical and ratio data that are difficult to reconcile. Using the H ii regions S206 and M17 we determine 4He production in the Galaxy to be dY/dZ = 1.71 ± 0.86.
We summarize the past 17 years of our efforts to determine the cosmic abundance of the 3He isotope. The vast majority of our 3He+ observations were made with the NRAO 140 Foot telescope in Green Bank, WV. The 140 Foot ceased operations in July 1999 so that NRAO could prepare to commission its replacement, the Green Bank Telescope (GBT). Our 3He experiment was the last scientific program at the 140 Foot. It is thus poignant and timely for us to reassess the astrophysical context of our 3He results. Here we argue that the existence of “The 3He Plateau” for our sample of simple sources and recent advances in the understanding of the evolution of solar analog stars together suggest that we can finally estimate the primordial abundance of 3He. Our current best estimate for the primordial abundance is 3He/H = (1.5 ±0.6) × 10−5 (s.e.) by number.
We have detected the 8.7 GHz hyperfine line of 3He+ in the HII regions W43, W51, and W3 and obtained significant upper limits for M17, W49, and Orion A. Even though the abundances derived from measured line parameters can have large uncertainty due to the detailed structure of the sources, it seems almost certain that the 3He+ abundance in W3, 12 kpc from the galactic center is significantly higher than in sources closer to the galactic center. If this is the result of general chemical evolution of the galaxy, it is exactly the opposite of what is expected.
This paper is a partial systematic test of Morton A. Kaplan's “theory” of alliance behavior in balance of power international systems first proposed in his well-known System and Process in International Politics (1957). Three hypotheses are inferred from Kaplan's writings predicting that in a stable balance of power system, (a) alliances will occur randomly with respect to time; (b) the time intervals between alliances will also be randomly distributed; and (c) a decline in systemic alliance formation rates precedes system changing events, such as general war. We check these hypotheses by applying probability theory, specifically a Poisson model, to the analysis of new data on fifty-five alliances among the five major European powers during the period 1814–1914. Because our research questions are so general, our findings should not be regarded as definitive; however, the data very strongly support our hypotheses. We conclude that Kaplan's verbal model of a balance of power international system has had its credibility enhanced as a result of this paper.
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