In this paper, we present and evaluate a novel Bayesian regime-switching zero-inflated multilevel Poisson (RS-ZIMLP) regression model for forecasting alcohol use dynamics. The model partitions individuals’ data into two phases, known as regimes, with: (1) a zero-inflation regime that is used to accommodate high instances of zeros (non-drinking) and (2) a multilevel Poisson regression regime in which variations in individuals’ log-transformed average rates of alcohol use are captured by means of an autoregressive process with exogenous predictors and a person-specific intercept. The times at which individuals are in each regime are unknown, but may be estimated from the data. We assume that the regime indicator follows a first-order Markov process as related to exogenous predictors of interest. The forecast performance of the proposed model was evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation study and further demonstrated using substance use and spatial covariate data from the Colorado Online Twin Study (CoTwins). Results showed that the proposed model yielded better forecast performance compared to a baseline model which predicted all cases as non-drinking and a reduced ZIMLP model without the RS structure, as indicated by higher AUC (the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve) scores, and lower mean absolute errors (MAEs) and root-mean-square errors (RMSEs). The improvements in forecast performance were even more pronounced when we limited the comparisons to participants who showed at least one instance of transition to drinking.

Why is parenting in adolescence predictive of maladaptive personality in adulthood? This study sets out to investigate environmental and genetic factors underlying the association between parenting and maladaptive personality longitudinally in a large sample of twins. The present study addressed this question via a longitudinal study focused on two cohorts of twins assessed on aspects of perceived parenting (parent- and adolescent-reported) at age 14 years (n =1,094 pairs). Participants were followed to adulthood, and maladaptive personality traits were self-reported using the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5) at age 24 or 34 years. We then modeled these data using a bivariate biometric model, decomposing parenting-maladaptive personality associations into additive genetic, shared environmental, and nonshared environmental factors. Numerous domains of adolescent-reported parenting predicted adult maladaptive personality. Further, we found evidence for substantial additive genetic (ra ranging from 0.22 to 0.55) and (to a lesser extent) nonshared environmental factors (re ranging from 0.10 to 0.15) that accounted for the association between perceived parenting reported in adolescence and adult personality. Perceived parenting in adolescence and maladaptive personality in adulthood may be related due to some of the same genetic factors contributing to both phenotypes at different developmental periods.

The University of Minnesota has played an important role in the resurgence and eventual mainstreaming of human behavioral genetics in psychology and psychiatry. We describe this history in the context of three major movements in behavioral genetics: (1) radical eugenics in the early 20th century, (2) resurgence of human behavioral genetics in the 1960s, largely using twin and adoption designs to obtain more precise estimates of genetic and environmental influences on individual differences in behavior; and (3) use of measured genotypes to understand behavior. University of Minnesota scientists made significant contributions especially in (2) and (3) in the domains of cognitive ability, drug abuse and mental health, and endophenotypes. These contributions are illustrated through a historical perspective of major figures and events in behavioral genetics.

The Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research (MCTFR) comprises multiple longitudinal, community-representative investigations of twin and adoptive families that focus on psychological adjustment, personality, cognitive ability and brain function, with a special emphasis on substance use and related psychopathology. The MCTFR includes the Minnesota Twin Registry (MTR), a cohort of twins who have completed assessments in middle and older adulthood; the Minnesota Twin Family Study (MTFS) of twins assessed from childhood and adolescence into middle adulthood; the Enrichment Study (ES) of twins oversampled for high risk for substance-use disorders assessed from childhood into young adulthood; the Adolescent Brain (AdBrain) study, a neuroimaging study of adolescent twins; and the Siblings Interaction and Behavior Study (SIBS), a study of adoptive and nonadoptive families assessed from adolescence into young adulthood. Here we provide a brief overview of key features of these established studies and describe new MCTFR investigations that follow up and expand upon existing studies or recruit and assess new samples, including the MTR Study of Relationships, Personality, and Health (MTR-RPH); the Colorado-Minnesota (COMN) Marijuana Study; the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study; the Colorado Online Twins (CoTwins) study and the Children of Twins (CoT) study.

This article serves to outline a research paradigm to investigate main effects and interactions of genes, environment, and development on behavior and psychiatric illness. We provide a historical context for candidate gene studies and genome-wide association studies, including benefits, limitations, and expected payoffs. Using substance use and abuse as our driving example, we then turn to the importance of etiological psychological theory in guiding genetic, environmental, and developmental research, as well as the utility of refined phenotypic measures, such as endophenotypes, in the pursuit of etiological understanding and focused tests of genetic and environmental associations. Phenotypic measurement has received considerable attention in the history of psychology and is informed by psychometrics, whereas the environment remains relatively poorly measured and is often confounded with genetic effects (i.e., gene–environment correlation). Genetically informed designs, which are no longer limited to twin and adoption studies thanks to ever-cheaper genotyping, are required to understand environmental influences. Finally, we outline the vast amount of individual difference in structural genomic variation, most of which remains to be leveraged in genetic association tests. Although the genetic data can be massive and burdensome (tens of millions of variants per person), we argue that improved understanding of genomic structure and function will provide investigators with new tools to test specific a priori hypotheses derived from etiological psychological theory, much like current candidate gene research but with less confusion and more payoff than candidate gene research has to date.