Pre-diagnostic deficits in social motivation are hypothesized to contribute to autism spectrum disorder (ASD), a heritable neurodevelopmental condition. We evaluated psychometric properties of a social motivation index (SMI) using parent-report item-level data from 597 participants in a prospective cohort of infant siblings at high and low familial risk for ASD. We tested whether lower SMI scores at 6, 12, and 24 months were associated with a 24-month ASD diagnosis and whether social motivation’s course differed relative to familial ASD liability. The SMI displayed good internal consistency and temporal stability. Children diagnosed with ASD displayed lower mean SMI T-scores at all ages and a decrease in mean T-scores across age. Lower group-level 6-month scores corresponded with higher familial ASD liability. Among high-risk infants, strong decline in SMI T-scores was associated with 10-fold odds of diagnosis. Infant social motivation is quantifiable by parental report, differentiates children with versus without later ASD by age 6 months, and tracks with familial ASD liability, consistent with a diagnostic and susceptibility marker of ASD. Early decrements and decline in social motivation indicate increased likelihood of ASD, highlighting social motivation’s importance to risk assessment and clarification of the ontogeny of ASD.

Reconstructions of prehistoric vegetation composition help establish natural baselines, variability, and trajectories of forest dynamics before and during the emergence of intensive anthropogenic land use. Pollen–vegetation models (PVMs) enable such reconstructions from fossil pollen assemblages using process-based representations of taxon-specific pollen production and dispersal. However, several PVMs and variants now exist, and the sensitivity of vegetation inferences to PVM selection, variant, and calibration domain is poorly understood. Here, we compare the reconstructions, parameter estimates, and structure of a Bayesian hierarchical PVM, STEPPS, both to observations and to REVEALS, a widely used PVM, for the pre–Euro-American settlement-era vegetation in the northeastern United States (NEUS). We also compare NEUS-based STEPPS parameter estimates to those for the upper midwestern United States (UMW). Both PVMs predict the observed macroscale patterns of vegetation composition in the NEUS; however, reconstructions of minor taxa are less accurate and predictions for some taxa differ between PVMs. These differences can be attributed to intermodel differences in structure and parameter estimates. Estimates of pollen productivity from STEPPS broadly agree with estimates produced for use in REVEALS, while comparison between pollen dispersal parameter estimates shows no significant relationship. STEPPS parameter estimates are similar between the UMW and NEUS, suggesting that STEPPS parameter estimates are transferable between floristically similar regions and scales.

The environmental and biotic history of the late Quaternary represents a critical junction between ecology, global change studies, and pre-Quaternary paleobiology. Late Quaternary records indicate the modes and mechanisms of environmental variation and biotic responses at timescales of 101–104 years. Climatic changes of the late Quaternary have occurred continuously across a wide range of temporal scales, with the magnitude of change generally increasing with time span. Responses of terrestrial plant populations have ranged from tolerance in situ to moderate shifts in habitat to migration and/or extinction, depending on magnitudes and rates of environmental change. Species assemblages have been disaggregated and recombined, forming a changing array of vegetation patterns on the landscape. These patterns of change are characteristic of terrestrial plants and animals but may not be representative of all other life-forms or habitats. Complexity of response, particularly extent of species recombination, depends in part on the nature of the underlying environmental gradients and how they change through time. Environmental gradients in certain habitats may change in relatively simple fashion, allowing long-term persistence of species associations and spatial patterns. Consideration of late Quaternary climatic changes indicates that both the rate and magnitude of climatic changes anticipated for the coming century are unprecedented, presenting unique challenges to the biota of the planet.

The patterns and drivers of late Quaternary vegetation dynamics in the southeastern United States are poorly understood due to low site density, problematic chronologies, and a paucity of independent paleoclimate proxy records. We present a well-dated (15 accelerator mass spectrometry 14C dates) 30,000-yr record from White Pond, South Carolina that consists of high-resolution analyses of fossil pollen, macroscopic charcoal, and Sporormiella spores, and an independent paleotemperature reconstruction based on branched glycerol dialkyl tetraethers. Between 30,000 and 20,000 cal yr BP, open Pinus-Picea forest grew under cold and dry conditions; elevated Quercus before 26,000 cal yr BP, however, suggest warmer conditions in the Southeast before the last glacial maximum, possibly corresponding to regionally warmer conditions associated with Heinrich event H2. Warming between 19,700 and 10,400 cal yr BP was accompanied by a transition from conifer-dominated to mesic hardwood forest. Sporormiella spores were not detected and charcoal was low during the late glacial period, suggesting megaherbivore grazers and fire were not locally important agents of vegetation change. Pinus returned to dominance during the Holocene, with step-like increases in Pinus at 10,400 and 6400 cal yr BP, while charcoal abundance increased tenfold, likely due to increased biomass burning associated with warmer conditions. Low-intensity surface fires increased after 1200 cal yr BP, possibly related to the establishment of the Mississippian culture in the Southeast.

The Neotoma Paleoecology Database is a community-curated data resource that supports interdisciplinary global change research by enabling broad-scale studies of taxon and community diversity, distributions, and dynamics during the large environmental changes of the past. By consolidating many kinds of data into a common repository, Neotoma lowers costs of paleodata management, makes paleoecological data openly available, and offers a high-quality, curated resource. Neotoma’s distributed scientific governance model is flexible and scalable, with many open pathways for participation by new members, data contributors, stewards, and research communities. The Neotoma data model supports, or can be extended to support, any kind of paleoecological or paleoenvironmental data from sedimentary archives. Data additions to Neotoma are growing and now include >3.8 million observations, >17,000 datasets, and >9200 sites. Dataset types currently include fossil pollen, vertebrates, diatoms, ostracodes, macroinvertebrates, plant macrofossils, insects, testate amoebae, geochronological data, and the recently added organic biomarkers, stable isotopes, and specimen-level data. Multiple avenues exist to obtain Neotoma data, including the Explorer map-based interface, an application programming interface, the neotoma R package, and digital object identifiers. As the volume and variety of scientific data grow, community-curated data resources such as Neotoma have become foundational infrastructure for big data science.

Records of Holocene vegetation and climate change at low elevations (<2000 m) are rare in the central Rocky Mountain region. We developed a record of Holocene vegetation and climate change from 55 14C-dated woodrat middens at two low-elevation sites (1275 to 1590 m), currently vegetated by Juniperus osteosperma woodlands, in the northern Bighorn Basin. Macrofossil and pollen analyses show that the early Holocene was cooler than today, with warming and drying in the middle Holocene. During the Holocene, boreal (Juniperus communis, J. horizontalis) and montane species (J. scopulorum) were replaced by a Great Basin species (J. osteosperma). J. osteosperma colonized the east side of the Pryor Mountains 4700 14C yr B.P. Downward movement of lower treeline indicates wetter conditions between 4400 and 2700 14C yr B.P. Increased aridity after 2700 14C yr B.P. initiated expansion of J. osteosperma from the east to west side of the Pryor Mountains.

We reconstructed Holocene water-level and vegetation dynamics based on pollen and plant macrofossils from a coastal lake in Upper Michigan. Our primary objective was to test the hypothesis that major fluctuations in Great Lakes water levels resulted in part from climatic changes. We also used our data to provide temporal constraints to the mid-Holocene dry period in Upper Michigan. From 9600 to 8600 cal yr B.P. a shallow, lacustrine environment characterized the Mud Lake basin. A Sphagnum-dominated wetland occupied the basin during the mid-Holocene dry period (∼8600 to 6600 cal yr B.P.). The basin flooded at 6600 cal yr B.P. as a result of rising water levels associated with the onset of the Nipissing I phase of ancestral Lake Superior. This flooding event occurred contemporaneously with a well-documented regional expansion of Tsuga. Betula pollen increased during the Nipissing II phase (4500 cal yr B.P.). Macrofossil evidence from Mud Lake suggests that Betula alleghaniensis expansion was primarily responsible for the rising Betula pollen percentages. Major regional and local vegetational changes were associated with all the major Holocene highstands of the western Great Lakes (Nipissing I, Nipissing II, and Algoma). Traditional interpretations of Great Lakes water-level history should be revised to include a major role of climate.

The Christensen Mastodon Site, located in central Indiana, contains a rich assemblage of vertebrates (including mastodon, caribou, and giant beaver), invertebrates, and plant macrofossils in situ in lake and bog sediments of late-glacial age. Studies of pollen and plant macrofossils suggest the existence of open, white spruce-dominated boreal forests from > 14,000 yr B.P. to ca. 13,000 yr B.P. The regional decline of spruce, local occurrence of black spruce, white spruce, and larch, immigration of many hardwood taxa (e.g., ash, oak, elm), and the initiation of bog development are recorded beginning about 13,000 yr B.P. Recent reconstructions of late-glacial and early postglacial vegetational changes provide a context for understanding the disappearance of mastodons. The dramatic and rapid restriction of boreal forests along the retreating ice margin from 11,000 to 9000 yr B.P. may have caused a substantial reduction of mastodon populations. A diminished population would be more susceptible to small-scale, stochastic events such as short-term extremes of weather, outbreaks of disease, or predation pressure from paleoindian hunters.

Pleistocene biogeography of conifer species is poorly known in much of western North America. We conducted morphological studies on 201 conifer cones and cone fragments recovered from Pleistocene sediments at the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site (2705 m) near Snowmass Village, Colorado. The basin, formed ~155–130 ka, contains fossil-bearing lacustrine, palustrine, and colluvial sediments spanning approximately 85 ka. Using a suite of morphological characters, particularly cone-scale bracts, we differentiated species of Abies, Picea, and Pseudotsuga. All fossil Abies specimens were assignable based on bract morphology to Abies concolor, which is currently absent from central Colorado (nearest populations are 160 km southwest of the site). A. concolor occurs only in sediments of MIS 5d and 5c. Pseudotsuga menziesii and Picea engelmannii cones occurred in sediments corresponding to MIS 5e, 5d, 5c, and 5a. A fourth conifer species, occurring in sediments of MIS 5e, 5d, 5c, and 5a, is difficult to assign to any extant species. Bract morphology is similar to Picea pungens, which grows near the site today, but scale morphology is unlike P. pungens. These fossils may represent ancestral P. pungens, an extinct variant, or an extinct sister species.

Knowledge about vegetation dynamics during the last glacial and deglacial periods in southeastern North America is under-constrained owing to low site density and problematic chronologies. New pollen records from two classic sites, Anderson Pond, TN, and Jackson Pond, KY, supported by AMS 14C age models, span 25.2–13.7 ka and 31.0–15.4 ka, respectively. A transition from Pinus dominance to Picea dominance is recorded at Jackson Pond ca. 26.2 ka, ~ coincident with Heinrich Event H2. Anderson and Jackson Ponds record a transition from conifer to deciduous-tree dominance ~ 15.9 and 15.4 ka, respectively, marking the development of no-analog vegetation characterized by moderate to high abundances of Picea, Quercus, Carya, Ulmus, Fraxinus, Ostrya/Carpinus, Cyperaceae, and Poaceae, and preceding by ~ 2000 yr the advent of similar no-analog vegetation in glaciated terrain to the north. No-analog vegetation developed as a time-transgressive, south-to-north pattern, mediated by climatic warming. Sporormiella abundances are consistently low throughout the Jackson and Anderson Pond records, suggesting that megafaunal abundances and effects on vegetation varied regionally or possibly that the Sporormiella signal was not well-expressed at these sites. Additional records with well-constrained chronologies are necessary to assess patterns and mechanisms of vegetation dynamics during the last glacial and deglacial periods.

Pollen, plant macrofossil, and radiocarbon-dating studies of seven exposures of fluvial sediments in the Tunica Hills region of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi provide new information on late Wisconsinan vegetation, flora, and environment of the region. The assemblages date between 25,250 and 17,530 yr B.P. Pollen and macrofossil assemblages are dominated by Picea, which comprises 40-70% of the pollen assemblages. Abies and Larix pollen and macrofossils are absent, in contrast to sites to the north in the central Mississippi Valley. Deciduous hardwoods (Quercus, Fagus, Fraxinus, Carya, Juglans nigra, Acer, Ulmus) are minor components of both pollen and macrofossil assemblages. Radiocarbon dates of Picea and Quercus wood indicate that these two genera grew contemporaneously in the region. Regional upland forests were dominated by Picea. Picea cones and cone fragments are not typical of any extant North American species, and probably represent either an extinct species or an extinct variety or subspecies of Picea glauca. Late Wisconsinan climate of the region was cooler than present, but not necessarily as cool as implied by P. glauca or other "boreal" taxa.

Pollen and plant macrofossil analyses and dating (both TAMS and conventional 14 C) of wetland sediments from the Nodoroc Site in the Piedmont region of northeastern Georgia identified two depositional episodes of interstadial (ca. 26,000-22,000 yr B.P.) and mid- to late Holocene (<3600 yr B.P.) age. Interstadial pollen assemblages were dominated by Pinus and Quercus, with Carya, Picea, and Abies also present in significant amounts. The interstadial assemblages had lower Pinus and higher Quercus pollen percentages than apparently contemporaneous assemblages from sites in the southern Appalachians and Coastal Plain. Interstadial macrofossils included two needle morphotypes of Pinus subgenus Pinus, possibly indicating local occurrence of two Pinus species. One of the needle morphotypes is consistent with Pinus banksiana, but other species cannot be ruled out. Comparison of conventional and TAMS 14C dates illustrates problems in obtaining accurate age models from wetlands and ponds characterized by shallow or fluctuating water levels, low sedimentation rates, and vegetation growing on the depositional surface.

In North America, terrestrial records of biodiversity and climate change that span Marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 are rare. Where found, they provide insight into how the coupling of the ocean–atmosphere system is manifested in biotic and environmental records and how the biosphere responds to climate change. In 2010–2011, construction at Ziegler Reservoir near Snowmass Village, Colorado (USA) revealed a nearly continuous, lacustrine/wetland sedimentary sequence that preserved evidence of past plant communities between ~140 and 55 ka, including all of MIS 5. At an elevation of 2705 m, the Ziegler Reservoir fossil site also contained thousands of well-preserved bones of late Pleistocene megafauna, including mastodons, mammoths, ground sloths, horses, camels, deer, bison, black bear, coyotes, and bighorn sheep. In addition, the site contained more than 26,000 bones from at least 30 species of small animals including salamanders, otters, muskrats, minks, rabbits, beavers, frogs, lizards, snakes, fish, and birds. The combination of macro- and micro-vertebrates, invertebrates, terrestrial and aquatic plant macrofossils, a detailed pollen record, and a robust, directly dated stratigraphic framework shows that high-elevation ecosystems in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado are climatically sensitive and varied dramatically throughout MIS 5.

We investigated the developmental and hydrological history of a Sphagnum-dominated, kettle peatland in Upper Michigan using testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, and pollen. Our primary objective was to determine if the paleohydrological record of the peatland represents a record of past climate variability at subcentennial to millennial time scales. To assess the role of millennial-scale climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we compared the timing of peatland and upland vegetation changes. To investigate the role of higher-frequency climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we used testate amoebae to reconstruct a high-resolution, hydrologic history of the peatland for the past 5100 years, and compared this record to other regional records of paleoclimate and vegetation. Comparisons revealed coherent patterns of hydrological, vegetational, and climatic changes, suggesting that peatland paleohydrology responded to climate variability at millennial to sub-centennial time scales. Although ombrotrophic peatlands have been the focus of most high-resolution peatland paleoclimate research, paleohydrological records from Sphagnum-dominated, closed-basin peatlands record high-frequency and low-magnitude climatic changes and thus represent a significant source of unexplored paleoclimate data.

Macrofossils from woodrat (Neotoma) middens serve as an important proxy for reconstructing past vegetation in arid and semiarid regions of North America. The presence/absence of plant macrofossils in middens can provide valuable information on temporal and spatial patterns of plant migration and range boundaries. The primary aim of this study was to determine how local plant abundance, distance of plant populations from midden sites, and species population density on the landscape affect the probability of occurrence of macrofossils in middens. The study was designed with the primary intent of determining the reliability of middens in detecting scattered populations of Pinus ponderosa. We analyzed macrofossil assemblages from 42 modern woodrat middens from West Carrizo Canyon in southeastern Colorado, near the current eastern range margin of Pinus ponderosa. We compared midden contents with composition of the surrounding vegetation, measuring distance from the midden to the nearest individual of selected plant species, and the percent cover of each species within 30 m of the midden. We used this information to model the probability of species presence in a midden across a range of population densities on the landscape. Macrofossils of Juniperus spp., Quercus gambelii, and Opuntia spp. were consistently found in middens regardless of their local abundance in vegetation, although populations occurred within 30 m of all middens. Pinus edulis and P. ponderosa occurred in nearly all middens within 20–30 m of individual trees. P. ponderosa was rare in middens >20–30 m away from individual trees. Results of a simple simulation model suggest that middens become absolutely reliable indicators of P. ponderosa presence on the landscape only when average tree density exceeds 50 stems ha−1. Woodrats reliably collected macrofossils of Pinus edulis, P. ponderosa, Juniperus spp., Quercus gambelii, and Opuntia spp. when populations of these taxa occur within 20–30 m of a midden site. Woodrats did not collect P. ponderosa when the nearest individuals were more than 30 m away. Low-density populations of these and other species may be difficult to detect in fossil woodrat-midden series owing to reduced probability that individuals grow within foraging distance of the middens. Data from this and similar studies can be used to construct and parameterize a forward model of macrofossil representation in woodrat middens.