Constrained fourth-order latent differential equation (FOLDE) models have been proposed (e.g., Boker et al. 2020) as alternative to second-order latent differential equation (SOLDE) models to estimate second-order linear differential equation systems such as the damped linear oscillator model. When, however, only a relatively small number of measurement occasions T are available (i.e., T = 50), the recommendation of which model to use is not clear (Boker et al. 2020). Based on a data set, which consists of T = 56 observations of daily stress for N = 44 individuals, we illustrate that FOLDE can help to choose an embedding dimension, even in the case of a small T. This is of great importance, as parameter estimates depend on the embedding dimension as well as on the latent differential equations model. Consequently, the wavelength as quantity of potential substantive interest may vary considerably. We extend the modeling approaches used in past research by including multiple subjects, by accounting for individual differences in equilibrium, and by including multiple instead of one single observed indicator.

The new software package OpenMx 2.0 for structural equation and other statistical modeling is introduced and its features are described. OpenMx is evolving in a modular direction and now allows a mix-and-match computational approach that separates model expectations from fit functions and optimizers. Major backend architectural improvements include a move to swappable open-source optimizers such as the newly written CSOLNP. Entire new methodologies such as item factor analysis and state space modeling have been implemented. New model expectation functions including support for the expression of models in LISREL syntax and a simplified multigroup expectation function are available. Ease-of-use improvements include helper functions to standardize model parameters and compute their Jacobian-based standard errors, access to model components through standard R $ mechanisms, and improved tab completion from within the R Graphical User Interface.

The past few years were marked by increased online offensive strategies perpetrated by state and non-state actors to promote their political agenda, sow discord, and question the legitimacy of democratic institutions in the US and Western Europe. In 2016, the US congress identified a list of Russian state-sponsored Twitter accounts that were used to try to divide voters on a wide range of issues. Previous research used latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to estimate latent topics in data extracted from these accounts. However, LDA has characteristics that may limit the effectiveness of its use on data from social media: The number of latent topics must be specified by the user, interpretability of the topics can be difficult to achieve, and it does not model short-term temporal dynamics. In the current paper, we propose a new method to estimate latent topics in texts from social media termed Dynamic Exploratory Graph Analysis (DynEGA). In a Monte Carlo simulation, we compared the ability of DynEGA and LDA to estimate the number of simulated latent topics. The results show that DynEGA is substantially more accurate than several different LDA algorithms when estimating the number of simulated topics. In an applied example, we performed DynEGA on a large dataset with Twitter posts from state-sponsored right- and left-wing trolls during the 2016 US presidential election. DynEGA revealed topics that were pertinent to several consequential events in the election cycle, demonstrating the coordinated effort of trolls capitalizing on current events in the USA. This example demonstrates the potential power of our approach for revealing temporally relevant information from qualitative text data.

Complex intraindividual variability observed in psychology may be well described using differential equations. It is difficult, however, to apply differential equation models in psychological contexts, as time series are frequently short, poorly sampled, and have large proportions of measurement and dynamic error. Furthermore, current methods for differential equation modeling usually consider data that are atypical of many psychological applications. Using embedded and observed data matrices, a statistical approach to differential equation modeling is presented. This approach appears robust to many characteristics common to psychological time series.

This paper investigates the precision of parameters estimated from local samples of time dependent functions. We find that time delay embedding, i.e., structuring data prior to analysis by constructing a data matrix of overlapping samples, increases the precision of parameter estimates and in turn statistical power compared to standard independent rows of panel data. We show that the reason for this effect is that the sign of estimation bias depends on the position of a misplaced data point if there is no a priori knowledge about initial conditions of the time dependent function. Hence, we reason that the advantage of time delayed embedding is likely to hold true for a wide variety of functions. We support these conclusions both by mathematical analysis and two simulations.

Conventional longitudinal behavioral genetic models estimate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental factors to stability and change of traits and behaviors. Longitudinal models rarely explain the processes that generate observed differences between genetically and socially related individuals. We propose that exchanges between individuals and their environments (i.e., phenotype–environment effects) can explain the emergence of observed differences over time. Phenotype–environment models, however, would require violation of the independence assumption of standard behavioral genetic models; that is, uncorrelated genetic and environmental factors. We review how specification of phenotype–environment effects contributes to understanding observed changes in genetic variability over time and longitudinal correlations among nonshared environmental factors. We then provide an example using 30 days of positive and negative affect scores from an all-female sample of twins. Results demonstrate that the phenotype–environment effects explain how heritability estimates fluctuate as well as how nonshared environmental factors persist over time. We discuss possible mechanisms underlying change in gene–environment correlation over time, the advantages and challenges of including gene–environment correlation in longitudinal twin models, and recommendations for future research.