By applying a general procedure for analyzing a correlation coefficient into components, the lens model equation is extended to a) analyze the effects of different types of variation and b) analyze the relations between judgmental systems that are not based on the same set of cues.

Bioturbation can increase time averaging by downward and upward movements of young and old shells within the entire mixed layer and by accelerating the burial of shells into a sequestration zone (SZ), allowing them to bypass the uppermost taphonomically active zone (TAZ). However, bioturbation can increase shell disintegration concurrently, neutralizing the positive effects of mixing on time averaging. Bioirrigation by oxygenated pore-water promotes carbonate dissolution in the TAZ, and biomixing itself can mill shells weakened by dissolution or microbial maceration, and/or expose them to damage at the sediment–water interface. Here, we fit transition rate matrices to bivalve age–frequency distributions from four sediment cores from the southern California middle shelf (50–75 m) to assess the competing effects of bioturbation on disintegration and time averaging, exploiting a strong gradient in rates of sediment accumulation and bioturbation created by historic wastewater pollution. We find that disintegration covaries positively with mixing at all four sites, in accord with the scenario where bioturbation ultimately fuels carbonate disintegration. Both mixing and disintegration rates decline abruptly at the base of the 20- to 40-cm-thick, age-homogenized surface mixed layer at the three well-bioturbated sites, despite different rates of sediment accumulation. In contrast, mixing and disintegration rates are very low in the upper 25 cm at an effluent site with legacy sediment toxicity, despite recolonization by bioirrigating lucinid bivalves. Assemblages that formed during maximum wastewater emissions vary strongly in time averaging, with millennial scales at the low-sediment accumulation non-effluent sites, a centennial scale at the effluent site where sediment accumulation was high but bioturbation recovered quickly, and a decadal scale at the second high-sedimentation effluent site where bioturbation remained low for decades. Thus, even though disintegration rates covary positively with mixing rates, reducing postmortem shell survival, bioturbation has the net effect of increasing the time averaging of skeletal remains on this warm-temperate siliciclastic shelf.

The Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines (ACTIV) Cross-Trial Statistics Group gathered lessons learned from statisticians responsible for the design and analysis of the 11 ACTIV therapeutic master protocols to inform contemporary trial design as well as preparation for a future pandemic. The ACTIV master protocols were designed to rapidly assess what treatments might save lives, keep people out of the hospital, and help them feel better faster. Study teams initially worked without knowledge of the natural history of disease and thus without key information for design decisions. Moreover, the science of platform trial design was in its infancy. Here, we discuss the statistical design choices made and the adaptations forced by the changing pandemic context. Lessons around critical aspects of trial design are summarized, and recommendations are made for the organization of master protocols in the future.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Racial and ethnic minority populations have been historically underrepresented in clinical trials, which limits the external validity of study findings. We analyze data from the ACTIV-6 trial to assess whether inclusion efforts were effective in increasing participation from minority groups. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: ACTIV-6 is a decentralized randomized placebo-controlled platform trial investigating repurposed drugs for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19. Study participants could either self-refer online or be recruited through a study site. Two inclusion efforts were introduced to increase participation from racial or ethnic minority populations: targeted advertising and outreach, and strategic selection of study sites that serve diverse populations. We assessed the effectiveness of these interventions by analyzing enrollment trends over time. We also assessed whether participants from racial or ethnic minority populations experienced higher loss to follow-up. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: At the start of the trial, enrollment of non-Hispanic White participants outpaced enrollment from racial or ethnic minority populations. At 4 months, only 108 participants (20.5%) were from racial or ethnic minority populations, but greatly increased by 28 months to 3,544 participants (46.4%), nearly half of all participants. This increase was predominantly due to recruitment through study sites rather than self-referral. In particular, certain sites recruited large numbers of minority participants. We also observed that participants from racial or ethnic minority populations were more likely to drop out of the study before receiving the study drug (3% vs 1%). DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that strategic site selection is an effective strategy for recruiting a study population that represents racial and ethnic populations. The benefits of targeted advertising and outreach were less clear. Retention efforts remain important to reduce loss to follow-up.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Platform trials gain efficiency by sharing placebo controls among different study arms. However, the varying routes of administration make it unclear whether participants exposed to different placebos have similar outcomes. As such, we seek to compare outcomes between participants receiving tablet and inhaler placebos in the ACTIV-6 trial. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: ACTIV-6 is a large, decentralized platform trial exploring repurposed drugs for the treatment of adults with mild to moderate COVID-19. Enrolled participants were randomly assigned to a study arm vs. placebo and then mailed the study drug. They were monitored until symptom resolution or Day 28. Here, we compare outcomes for control participants contributing to the fluticasone furoate study arm, in which 251 were assigned to a tablet placebo and 370 an inhaler placebo. Time to sustained recovery and time to resolution of individual symptoms are compared between groups using Kaplan-Meier curves and unadjusted log-rank tests. A step-down procedure is applied to control the false discovery rate. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Control participants assigned to tablet placebos had shorter time to sustained recovery (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.34 (95% CI 1.11, 1.62)). When examining each of the eleven individually reported symptoms on study Day 14, nasal symptoms (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.44 (0.27, 0.72), p<0.01), dyspnea (OR 0.44 (0.22, 0.87), p = 0.02), and cough (OR 0.54 (0.35, 0.83), p<0.01) were identified as symptoms in which the tablet-placebo group performed notably better than those who received inhaler-placebos. In the follow-up, longitudinal analysis, we anticipate similar results. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Among ACTIV-6 control participants, those receiving a tablet placebo had a significantly shorter time to sustained recovery than those receiving an inhaler placebo. Platform trials using shared controls should consider efficiency in the context of the additional variability when sharing controls with a different route of administration.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: As mortality and morbidity from acute COVID-19 decline, the impact of COVID-19 on short- and long-term quality of life (QoL) becomes critical to address. We assessed the impact of re-purposed COVID-19 therapies on QoL as a secondary outcome measure in ACTIV-6, a decentralized platform trial. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Adults aged ≥30 with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 enroll in ACTIV-6 online or through a study site. Patients are randomized to a medication of interest or placebo. Medications are mailed and symptoms are tracked using electronic diaries. QoL is measured#_msocom_1 using the PROMIS-29 questionnaire. Adjusted Bayesian logistic regression models are used to measure effects of treatment on the seven PROMIS-29 QoL domains at days 7, 14, 28#_msocom_2 and 90. Covariates are treatment, age, gender, symptom duration and severity, vaccination status, geographic region, call center#_msocom_3#_msocom_4, and calendar time. Treatment effects are described using ORs, 95% credible intervals, and posterior probabilities of efficacy, P(eff). RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: There are 5,362 patients included, representing four of the study arms in ACTIV-6. We report results where P(eff)<0.025 and P(eff)>0.975 in the table below. Table 1. Scale Day: OR* (95% credible interval, P(eff)) Therapy Physical Anxiety Depression Fatigue Sleep Social Pain Ivermectin 400 — Ivermectin 600 D7: 0.77 (0.61-0.96, 0.01) D14: 0.65 (0.49-0.85, <0.01) D28: 0.69 (0.52-0.92, 0.01) — D7: 0.79 (0.64-0.97, 0.01) — D14 0.78 (0.60-1.00, 0.02) D28: 0.66 (0.50-0.87, <0.01) Fluticasone - D14: 0.77 (0.60-0.99, 0.02) — D7: 0.76 (0.62-0.93, <0.01) D90: 0.79 (0.64-0.98, 0.01) — D7: 0.74 (0.59-0.93, 0.01) Fluvoxamine D7: 0.66 (0.51-0.84, 0.01) — D28: 1.38 (1.02, 1.85, 0.98) D7: 0.78 (0.63-0.97, 0.01) D7: 0.77 (0.62-0.95, 0.01) — *OR > 1 favors active intervention DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Results suggest fluvoxamine may improve depression scores by day 28, while placebo is favored in several other scales across treatments. Differences between treatment and placebo are not seen at most other timepoints. This trial is ongoing and future work will include results from additional ACTIV-6 study arms.

Parenting and child impulsivity are consistent predictors of children’s externalizing symptoms; however, the role of the range of parenting (i.e., variation in parenting across contexts), and its interactions with child impulsivity, are poorly understood. We examined whether characteristic parenting practices and parenting range predicted the course of externalizing symptoms in 409 children (Mage = 3.43 years at baseline, 208 girls) across ages 3, 5, 8, and 11. We assessed parent positive affectivity (PPA), hostility, and parenting structure at child age 3 using three behavioral tasks that varied in context, examining range by modeling a latent difference score for each parenting dimension. Greater PPA range, mean structure, and parenting structure range all predicted fewer symptoms at age 3 for children with higher impulsivity. Lower mean hostility predicted fewer symptoms at age 3 for children with lower impulsivity. Greater PPA, and smaller PPA range, predicted a decrease in symptoms for children higher in impulsivity. Lower hostility range predicted a decrease in symptoms for children with lower impulsivity but predicted maintaining symptoms for children with higher impulsivity. Results demonstrate the differential roles average parenting practices and parenting range play in the development of child externalizing psychopathology, especially in the context of child impulsivity.

The current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has placed unprecedented strain on underfunded public health resources in the Southeastern United States. The Memphis, TN, metropolitan region has lacked infrastructure for health data exchange.

This manuscript describes a multidisciplinary initiative to create a community-focused COVID-19 data registry, the Memphis Pandemic Health Informatics System (MEMPHI-SYS). MEMPHI-SYS leverages test result data updated directly from community-based testing sites, as well as a full complement of public health data sets and knowledge-based informatics. It has been guided by relationships with community stakeholders and is managed alongside the largest publicly funded community-based COVID-19 testing response in the Mid-South. MEMPHI-SYS has supported interactive Web-based analytic resources and informs federally funded COVID-19 outreach directed toward neighborhoods most in need of pandemic support.

MEMPHI-SYS provides an instructive case study of how to collaboratively establish the technical scaffolding and human relationships necessary for data-driven, health equity-focused pandemic surveillance, and policy interventions.

Racially and ethnically minoritized populations have been historically excluded and underrepresented in research. This paper will describe best practices in multicultural and multilingual awareness-raising strategies used by the Recruitment Innovation Center to increase minoritized enrollment into clinical trials. The Passive Immunity Trial for Our Nation will be used as a primary example to highlight real-world application of these methods to raise awareness, engage community partners, and recruit diverse study participants.

The emphasis on team science in clinical and translational research increases the importance of collaborative biostatisticians (CBs) in healthcare. Adequate training and development of CBs ensure appropriate conduct of robust and meaningful research and, therefore, should be considered as a high-priority focus for biostatistics groups. Comprehensive training enhances clinical and translational research by facilitating more productive and efficient collaborations. While many graduate programs in Biostatistics and Epidemiology include training in research collaboration, it is often limited in scope and duration. Therefore, additional training is often required once a CB is hired into a full-time position. This article presents a comprehensive CB training strategy that can be adapted to any collaborative biostatistics group. This strategy follows a roadmap of the biostatistics collaboration process, which is also presented. A TIE approach (Teach the necessary skills, monitor the Implementation of these skills, and Evaluate the proficiency of these skills) was developed to support the adoption of key principles. The training strategy also incorporates a “train the trainer” approach to enable CBs who have successfully completed training to train new staff or faculty.

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: The Life’s Simple 7 (LS7) metric was created by the American Heart Association with the goal of educating the public on seven modifiable factors that contribute to heart health. While it is well documented that these ideal health behaviors lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population, the association between the LS7 ideal health metrics and end stage renal disease (ESRD) risk has not been examined in a lower socioeconomic population at high risk for both ESRD and CVD. Our objective is to examine the association between the LS7 score and incident ESRD in a cohort of white and black men and women in the southeastern US, where rates of CVD and ESRD are high. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: The Southern Community Cohort Study recruited ~86,000 low-income blacks and whites in the southeastern US (2002-2009). Utilizing a nested case-control design, our analysis included 1628 incident cases of ESRD identified via linkage of the cohort with the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) from January 1, 2002 to March 31, 2015. Controls (n = 4884) were individually matched 3:1 with ESRD cases based on age, sex, and race. Demographic, medical, and lifestyle information were obtained via baseline questionnaire. The AHA definitions for ideal health were used for non-smoking (never or quit >12 months), body mass index (BMI<25kg/m2) and physical activity (>75 min/week of vigorous physical activity or >150min/week of moderate/vigorous activity). Modified definitions were used for consuming a healthy diet [Healthy Eating Index (HEI10) score>70] and for blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and total cholesterol, based on self-reported no history of diagnosis of hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolemia, respectively. The number of ideal health parameters were summed to generate the LS7 score, which ranged from 0-7 with higher scores indicating more ideal health. Adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for incident ESRD associated with LS7 score were calculated using conditional logistic regression models, adjusting for income and education. The SCCS ESRD case-cohort dataset will be available by TS 2019 and analyses will be completed to adjust for baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as a marker of kidney function and to examine whether eGFR modifies the relationship between LS7 and incident ESRD. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: At baseline, mean age was 54 years, 55% (3600) of participants were women, and 87% (5656) were black. A total of 58% (943) of ESRD cases were non-smokers compared to 54% (2633) of controls. ESRD cases had higher prevalence of BMI>25 kg/m2 (81% vs. 74%), hypertension (84% vs. 59%), hypercholesterolemia (48% vs. 34%), and diabetes (66% vs. 22%) compared to controls. A total of 18% (839) of controls and 12% (194) of ESRD cases met ideal exercise recommendations, and 20% of either cases (302) or controls (916) had a HEI10 score above 70. The median LS7 score for controls and ESRD cases was 3 and 2, respectively, and 17% (983) of participants had a low score (0-1) while 2% (105) met 6 or 7 ideal health metrics. Higher LS7 score was associated with lower odds of ESRD (P-trend<0.001). Participants with LS7 score >3 (above median) had 75% reduced odds of ESRD (OR 0.25; 95% CI 0.22, 0.29) compared to those with a score of 2 or less. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: In the SCCS population, the presence of any 3 or more ideal health behaviors is associated with reduced odds of developing ESRD. The components of the LS7 represent important modifiable risk factors that may be targets for future interventions driven by the patient. The attributable risk due to each factor is needed to dissect which ideal behaviors are the most beneficial.