Cerebral microvascular dysfunction may contribute to depression via disruption of brain structures involved in mood regulation, but evidence is limited. We investigated the association of retinal microvascular function, a proxy for microvascular function in the brain, with incidence and trajectories of clinically relevant depressive symptoms.

Longitudinal data are from The Maastricht Study of 5952 participants (59.9 ± 8.5 years/49.7% women) without clinically relevant depressive symptoms at baseline (2010–2017). Central retinal arteriolar equivalent and central retinal venular equivalent (CRAE and CRVE) and a composite score of flicker light-induced retinal arteriolar and venular dilation were assessed at baseline. We assessed incidence and trajectories of clinically relevant depressive symptoms (9-item Patient Health Questionnaire score ⩾10). Trajectories included continuously low prevalence (low, n = 5225 [87.8%]); early increasing, then chronic high prevalence (early-chronic, n = 157 [2.6%]); low, then increasing prevalence (late-increasing, n = 247 [4.2%]); and remitting prevalence (remitting, n = 323 [5.4%]).

After a median follow-up of 7.0 years (range 1.0–11.0), 806 (13.5%) individuals had incident clinically relevant depressive symptoms. After full adjustment, a larger CRAE and CRVE were each associated with a lower risk of clinically relevant depressive symptoms (hazard ratios [HRs] per standard deviation [s.d.]: 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83–0.96] and 0.93 [0.86–0.99], respectively), while a lower flicker light-induced retinal dilation was associated with a higher risk of clinically relevant depressive symptoms (HR per s.d.: 1.10 [1.01–1.20]). Compared to the low trajectory, a larger CRAE was associated with lower odds of belonging to the early-chronic trajectory (OR: 0.83 [0.69–0.99]) and a lower flicker light-induced retinal dilation was associated with higher odds of belonging to the remitting trajectory (OR: 1.23 [1.07–1.43]).

These findings support the hypothesis that cerebral microvascular dysfunction contributes to the development of depressive symptoms.

Altered white matter brain connectivity has been linked to depression. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of markers of white matter connectivity with prevalence, incidence and course of depressive symptoms.

Markers of white matter connectivity (node degree, clustering coefficient, local efficiency, characteristic path length, and global efficiency) were assessed at baseline by 3 T MRI in the population-based Maastricht Study (n = 4866; mean ± standard deviation age 59.6 ± 8.5 years, 49.0% women; 17 406 person-years of follow-up). Depressive symptoms (9-item Patient Health Questionnaire; PHQ-9) were assessed at baseline and annually over seven years of follow-up. Major depressive disorder (MDD) was assessed with the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview at baseline only. We used negative binominal, logistic and Cox regression analyses, and adjusted for demographic, cardiovascular, and lifestyle risk factors.

A lower global average node degree at baseline was associated with the prevalence and persistence of clinically relevant depressive symptoms [PHQ-9 ⩾ 10; OR (95% confidence interval) per standard deviation = 1.21 (1.05–1.39) and OR = 1.21 (1.02–1.44), respectively], after full adjustment. On the contrary, no associations were found of global average node degree with the MDD at baseline [OR 1.12 (0.94–1.32) nor incidence or remission of clinically relevant depressive symptoms [HR = 1.05 (0.95–1.17) and OR 1.08 (0.83–1.41), respectively]. Other connectivity measures of white matter organization were not associated with depression.

Our findings suggest that fewer white matter connections may contribute to prevalent depressive symptoms and its persistence but not to incident depression. Future studies are needed to replicate our findings.