AAO Antarctic Oscillation

ADAPT Assessment & Design for Adaptation to Climate Change: A Prototype Tool

AMO Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

AO Arctic Oscillation

AR5 Fifth Assessment Report

CAPE Convective Available Potential Energy

CAT catastrophic risk

CBA cost-benefit analysis or community-based adaptation

CBD Convention on Biological Diversity

CBDR common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities

CBO community-based organization

CCA climate change adaptation

CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility

CCSP Climate Change Science Program (US)

CDD Consecutive Dry Days

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

CEE Centre for Environment Education

CEI Climate Extremes Index

C-ERA-40 Corrected ERA-40 reanalysis

CFR case fatality rate

CH4 methane

CMIP3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3

CO2 carbon dioxide

COP Conference of the Parties

CPP cyclone preparedness program

CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters

CSA Canadian Standards Association

CSO civil society organization

CSR corporate social responsibility

DDI Disaster Deficit Index

DFID Department for International Development (UK)

DJF December-January-February

DRM disaster risk management

DRR disaster risk reduction

DRRM disaster risk reduction management

EbA ecosystem-based adaptation

EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

EDI Ethiopia Drought Index

ELF Emergency Liquidity Facility

EM-DAT Emergency Events Database

ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation

ERA-40 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis

EVT extreme value theory

EWS early warning system

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization

FONDEN Fund for Natural Disasters

GAR Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

GCM global climate model

GDP gross domestic product

Context

This Summary for Policymakers presents key findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The SREX approaches the topic by assessing the scientific literature on issues that range from the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events (‘climate extremes’) to the implications of these events for society and sustainable development. The assessment concerns the interaction of climatic, environmental, and human factors that can lead to impacts and disasters, options for managing the risks posed by impacts and disasters, and the important role that non-climatic factors play in determining impacts. Box SPM.1 defines concepts central to the SREX.

The character and severity of impacts from climate extremes depend not only on the extremes themselves but also on exposure and vulnerability. In this report, adverse impacts are considered disasters when they produce widespread damage and cause severe alterations in the normal functioning of communities or societies. Climate extremes, exposure, and vulnerability are influenced by a wide range of factors, including anthropogenic climate change, natural climate variability, and socioeconomic development (Figure SPM.1). Disaster risk management and adaptation to climate change focus on reducing exposure and vulnerability and increasing resilience to the potential adverse impacts of climate extremes, even though risks cannot fully be eliminated (Figure SPM.2). Although mitigation of climate change is not the focus of this report, adaptation and mitigation can complement each other and together can significantly reduce the risks of climate change. [SYR AR4, 5.3]

Argentina

Vicente Barros, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos Aires

Ines Camilloni, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos Aires

Hernan Carlino, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella

Mario Nunez, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos Aires

Matilde Rusticucci, Universidad de Buenos Aires

Haris Eduardo Sanahuja, Senior Consultant

Pablo Suarez, Boston University, Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre

Carolina Vera, CIMA/Universidad de Buenos Aires

Australia

Jonathan Abrahams, World Health Organization

Lisa Alexander, The University of New South Wales

Julie Arblaster, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Jon Barnett, Melbourne University

Ian Carruthers, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility

Bob Cechet, Geoscience Australia

Lynda Chambers, Australian Bureau of Meteorology

John Church, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization

Paul Della-Marta, Partner Reinsurance Company

Amy Dumbrell, Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

Jill Edwards, Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council

Ailie Gallant, University of Melbourne

John Handmer, Centre for Risk and Community Safety, RMIT University

Mark Hemer, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization

Adriana Keating, RMIT University

Monique Ladds, RMIT University

Padma Narsey Lal, International Union for Conservation of Nature-Oceania

Yun Li, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

Kathleen McInnes, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Marine and Atmospheric Research

Neville Nicholls, Monash University, School of Geography and Environmental Science

Lauren Amy Rickards, University of Melbourne

Anthony Swirepik, Australia Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

Frank Thomalla, Macquarie University

Richard Thornton, Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre

Blair Trewin, Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Abrupt climate change

The nonlinearity of the climate system may lead to abrupt climate change, sometimes called rapid climate change, abrupt events, or even surprises. The term abrupt often refers to time scales faster than the typical time scale of the responsible forcing. However, not all abrupt climate changes need be externally forced. Some changes may be truly unexpected, resulting from a strong, rapidly changing forcing of a nonlinear system.

Adaptation

In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate.

Adaptation assessment

The practice of identifying options to adapt to climate change and evaluating them in terms of criteria such as availability, benefits, costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and feasibility.

Adaptive capacity

The combination of the strengths, attributes, and resources available to an individual, community, society, or organization that can be used to prepare for and undertake actions to reduce adverse impacts, moderate harm, or exploit beneficial opportunities.

Aerosols

A collection of airborne solid or liquid particles, with a typical size between 0.01 and 10 μm, that reside in the atmosphere for at least several hours. Aerosols may be of either natural or anthropogenic origin. Aerosols may influence climate in several ways: directly through scattering and absorbing radiation, and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei or modifying the optical properties and lifetime of clouds.

Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment

Report of the IPCC Scientific Assessment Working Group

1990

Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts Assessment

Report of the IPCC Impacts Assessment Working Group

1990

Climate Change: The IPCC Response Strategies

Report of the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group

1990

Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment

Report of the IPCC Scientific Assessment Working Group

1992

Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Impacts Assessment

Report of the IPCC Impacts Assessment Working Group

1992

Climate Change: The IPCC 1990 and 1992 Assessments – IPCC First Assessment Report Overview and Policymaker Summaries, and 1992 IPCC Supplement

1992

Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios

IPCC Special Report

1994

Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change

Contribution of Working Group I to the IPCC Second Assessment Report

1996

Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses

Contribution of Working Group II

to the IPCC Second Assessment Report

1996

Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change

Contribution of Working Group III to the IPCC Second Assessment Report

1996

Climate Change 1995: IPCC Second Assessment Synthesis of Scientific-Technical Information Relevant to Interpreting Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

1996

Technologies, Policies, and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change

IPCC Technical Paper I

1996

This volume, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, is a Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report is a collaborative effort of Working Group I (WGI) and Working Group II (WGII). The IPCC leadership team for this report also has responsibility for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), scheduled for completion in 2013 and 2014.

The Special Report brings together scientific communities with expertise in three very different aspects of managing risks of extreme weather and climate events. For this report, specialists in disaster recovery, disaster risk management, and disaster risk reduction, a community mostly new to the IPCC, joined forces with experts in the areas of the physical science basis of climate change (WGI) and climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (WGII). Over the course of the two-plus years invested in assessing information and writing the report, scientists from these three communities forged shared goals and products.

Extreme weather and climate events have figured prominently in past IPCC assessments. Extremes can contribute to disasters, but disaster risk is influenced by more than just the physical hazards. Disaster risk emerges from the interaction of weather or climate events, the physical contributors to disaster risk, with exposure and vulnerability, the contributors to risk from the human side. The combination of severe consequences, rarity, and human as well as physical determinants makes disasters difficult to study.