To save content items to your account,
please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies.
If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account.
Find out more about saving content to .
To save content items to your Kindle, first ensure no-reply@cambridge.org
is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings
on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part
of your Kindle email address below.
Find out more about saving to your Kindle.
Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations.
‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi.
‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.
Every 5 years, the World Congress of the Econometric Society brings together scholars from around the world. Leading scholars present state-of-the-art overviews of their areas of research, offering newcomers access to key research in economics. Advances in Economics and Econometrics: Twelfth World Congress consists of papers and commentaries presented at the Twelfth World Congress of the Econometric Society. This two-volume set includes surveys and interpretations of key developments in economics and econometrics, and discussions of future directions for a variety of topics, covering both theory and application. The first volume addresses such topics as contract theory, industrial organization, health and human capital, as well as racial justice, while the second volume includes theoretical and applied papers on climate change, time-series econometrics, and causal inference. These papers are invaluable for experienced economists seeking to broaden their knowledge or young economists new to the field.
A growing body of evidence shows an association between in utero Ramadan exposure and negative long-term consequences. Nonetheless, there is a scarcity of studies utilizing clinical measures in adults. This study investigates a possible association between in utero Ramadan exposure and mean arterial pressure (MAP) as well as random blood glucose (RBG) measures in the adult offspring. Using cross-sectional data from the Southeast Asia community observatory health and demographic surveillance system (SEACO) in Malaysia for two survey rounds (year 2013 and 2018), we compared MAP and RBG of in utero Ramadan-exposed Muslims with unexposed Muslims and non-Muslims. In utero Ramadan exposure was estimated based on the overlap between pregnancy (estimated from birth dates) and Ramadan periods. We conducted difference-in-differences analyses adjusted for age and birth months (seasonal effects). A total of 20,575 participants aged 35 or older were included in the analysis, comprising 12,696 Muslims and 7,879 non-Muslims. Difference-in-differences analyses revealed no statistically significant association between in utero Ramadan exposure and MAP, or between in utero Ramadan and RBG. These findings persisted in additional analyses examining the timing of Ramadan exposure during pregnancy.
How do far-right actors influence mainstream parties over time? Previous research shows that mainstream parties contribute to the electoral success of far-right parties through coalitions or policy alliances. However, a long-term perspective on the influence of far-right actors, including parties, civil society organisations, and social movements, on mainstream parties’ communication is lacking. This article investigates how far-right actors and issues have influenced mainstream parties’ communication in Germany since the 1990s. Using automated text analysis, we analyse 520,408 articles from six newspapers. First, we semi-automatically collect far-right actors and mainstream parties and implement a structural topic model to analyse their issue agendas. Second, we use time-series analysis to examine agenda-setting effects and their drivers. The results show that far-right influence on mainstream parties’ communication has increased, particularly among opposition parties and around issues of Islam and migration. Notably, the agenda-setting effect cuts across party ideologies, indicating mainstream parties’ impact on the rise of the far right in democracies.
Article 2(4) of the UN Charter prohibits the use of force in international relations and separately bans any threat of force, whether explicit or implicit. However, what constitutes an implicit threat remains ill-defined, undermining the UN Charter’s system of collective security. This article addresses the central question: How can implicit threats be more reliably identified? It begins by reviewing the incomplete work of the International Law Commission on threats of force, then develops a framework to distinguish prohibited implicit threats from permissible state behaviour. Grounded in a theoretical understanding of threats of force as forms of communication rather than action, the article offers a clear definition of implicit threats. To exemplify this definition, it adapts the approach of the Definition of Aggression resolution, enabling a more precise attribution of prima facie responsibility for implicit threats. Subsequently, the article explores possible justifications for implicit threats, identifies their legal consequences and outlines modalities for international responses to such threats. Finally, the article suggests resuming the juridical effort to progressively develop international law in this area.
Mass-casualty incidents (MCI) are a highly important issue in disaster medicine today. In this context, professional first responders play a fundamental role as they provide preparedness and initial care to the injured. The aim of this review is to describe the form and impact of different didactic concepts in triage exercises to prepare for an MCI response.
Methods
A Scoping review search was conducted in the databases PubMed, Medline, and Psyndex as an initial examination of this topic.
Results
Seventeen studies were included in this review. Of the reviewed studies, 52.9% followed a randomized controlled trial design with pre-post intervention measurement. The interventions implemented in the studies were associated with an increase in knowledge and/or practical skills. Of media-based interventions, 42.9% show a comparable and 57.1% greater training effect than conventional teaching methods. According to 4 studies, technical and non-technical aids increase the triage accuracy.
Conclusions
The benefits of media-based interventions and of technical and non-technical aids should be evaluated by a subsequent systematic review with a broader database and search terms of studies. The differences between different triage algorithms need to be investigated in future studies. It must be noted that intervention is preferable to non-intervention.
In acute ischemic stroke, a longer time from onset to endovascular treatment (EVT) is associated with worse clinical outcome. We investigated the association of clinical outcome with time from last known well to arrival at the EVT hospital and time from hospital arrival to arterial access for anterior circulation large vessel occlusion patients treated > 6 hours from last known well.
Methods:
Retrospective analysis of the prospective, multicenter cohort study ESCAPE-LATE. Patients presenting > 6 hours after last known well with anterior circulation large vessel occlusion undergoing EVT were included. The primary outcome was the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 90 days. Secondary outcomes were good (mRS 0–2) and poor clinical outcomes (mRS 5–6) at 90 days, as well as the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale at 24 hours. Associations of time intervals with outcomes were assessed with univariable and multivariable logistic regression.
Results:
Two hundred patients were included in the analysis, of whom 85 (43%) were female. 90-day mRS was available for 141 patients. Of the 150 patients, 135 (90%) had moderate-to-good collaterals, and the median Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) was 8 (IQR = 7–10). No association between ordinal mRS and time from last known well to arrival at the EVT hospital (odds ratio [OR] = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00–1.02) or time from hospital arrival to arterial access (OR = -0.01, 95% CI = -0.02–0.00) was seen in adjusted regression models.
Conclusion:
No relationship was observed between pre-hospital or in-hospital workflow times and clinical outcomes. Baseline ASPECTS and collateral status were favorable in the majority of patients, suggesting that physicians may have chosen to predominantly treat slow progressors in the late time window, in whom prolonged workflow times have less impact on outcomes.
The availability of reasons for decisions is an important part of recent developments in Commonwealth administration. As Mrs Burnett’s scholarly analysis shows, these developments have not been without their uncertainties. I would like to pursue a few of the issues raised in her paper and mention some issues associated with providing reasons for decisions in the Repatriation area.
There is much to be said for a person affected by a decision having a right to obtain full written reasons for the decision. This enables the person affected to find out why the particular decision has been made. It may also provide a possible basis for challenge to the decision. As Mrs Burnett notes, the need to give reasons has also been described as encouraging consistency and better quality in decision-making.
We analyze whether subjects with extensive laboratory experience and first-time participants, who voluntarily registered for the experiment, differ in their behavior. Subjects play four one-shot, two-player games: a trust game, a beauty contest, an ultimatum game, a traveler’s dilemma and, in addition, we conduct a single-player lying task and elicit risk preferences. We find few significant differences. In the trust game, experienced subjects are less trustworthy and they also trust less. Furthermore, experienced subjects submit fewer non-monotonic strategies in the risk elicitation task. We find no differences whatsoever in the other decisions. Nevertheless, the minor differences observed between experienced and inexperienced subjects may be relevant because we document a potential recruitment bias: the share of inexperienced subjects may be lower in the early recruitment waves.
In the era of cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome, thorough evaluation of medicines with multiple treatment effects/indications demands a multifaceted modeling philosophy, despite the requirement of health technology assessment (HTA) models to focus on one disease. Using Cardiff, a model previously built for type 2 diabetes (T2D), we illustrate the changes needed to capture contemporary, holistic, patient-centered decision-making, and argue that HTA bodies should revise their approach.
Methods
The upgraded model enables therapy selection and escalation determined by HbA1c thresholds, cardiovascular risk (QRISK3), comorbidities (established cardiovascular or chronic kidney disease), and weight (body mass index ≥35 kg/m2). Risk factor trajectories were updated by incorporating UKPDS-90 equations and other relevant data sources. Clinical outcomes were predicted using new risk equations incorporating cardiovascular outcomes trial data whenever possible. The updated model was applied to assess quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lifetime costs in newly diagnosed T2D patients in the UK, modeled via a conventional glycemic-centric approach versus a multifactorial treatment algorithm. Extrapolation to the national level utilized estimates of annual incidence.
Results
The updated treatment algorithm captured and quantified the impact of nuanced comorbidity management called for in guidelines. In a cohort of newly diagnosed T2D patients, 81 percent initiated an SGLT2 inhibitor within five years, predominantly due to increasing cardiovascular risk, versus zero percent when escalation was dictated by HbA1c alone. Broad, early use of SGLT2 inhibitors resulted in an additional 0.73 predicted QALYs and GBP10,757 (USD13,600) in predicted lifetime cost savings per patient versus a “traditional” approach. Cost savings were primarily due to avoided renal events; extrapolation to the national level predicted cost savings to the payer of GBP2.8 billion (USD3.5 billion), which traditional models cannot capture.
Conclusions
The modernized Cardiff model incorporates multifactorial prescribing guidelines and contemporary evidence around cardio-renal protection and is more adept at modeling costs and outcomes of multidimensional antidiabetic treatments; traditional glucose-centric modeling methods may introduce bias. Economic modeling and HTA processes must adapt to follow the complexities of modern disease management and remain relevant as healthcare systems address the cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome epidemic.
Employment and relationship are crucial for social integration. However, individuals with major psychiatric disorders often face challenges in these domains.
Aims
We investigated employment and relationship status changes among patients across the affective and psychotic spectrum – in comparison with healthy controls, examining whether diagnostic groups or functional levels influence these transitions.
Method
The sample from the longitudinal multicentric PsyCourse Study comprised 1260 patients with affective and psychotic spectrum disorders and 441 controls (mean age ± s.d., 39.91 ± 12.65 years; 48.9% female). Multistate models (Markov) were used to analyse transitions in employment and relationship status, focusing on transition intensities. Analyses contained multiple multistate models adjusted for age, gender, job or partner, diagnostic group and Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) in different combinations to analyse the impact of the covariates on the hazard ratio of changing employment or relationship status.
Results
The clinical group had a higher hazard ratio of losing partner (hazard ratio 1.46, P < 0.001) and job (hazard ratio 4.18, P < 0.001) than the control group (corrected for age/gender). Compared with controls, clinical groups had a higher hazard of losing partner (affective group, hazard ratio 2.69, P = 0.003; psychotic group, hazard ratio 3.06, P = 0.001) and job (affective group, hazard ratio 3.43, P < 0.001; psychotic group, hazard ratio 4.11, P < 0.001). Adjusting for GAF, the hazard ratio of losing partner and job decreased in both clinical groups compared with controls.
Conclusion
Patients face an increased hazard of job loss and relationship dissolution compared with healthy controls, and this is partially conditioned by the diagnosis and functional level. These findings underscore a high demand for destigmatisation and support for individuals in managing their functional limitations.
The Personalized Advantage Index (PAI) shows promise as a method for identifying the most effective treatment for individual patients. Previous studies have demonstrated its utility in retrospective evaluations across various settings. In this study, we explored the effect of different methodological choices in predictive modelling underlying the PAI.
Methods
Our approach involved a two-step procedure. First, we conducted a review of prior studies utilizing the PAI, evaluating each study using the Prediction model study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). We specifically assessed whether the studies adhered to two standards of predictive modeling: refraining from using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO CV) and preventing data leakage. Second, we examined the impact of deviating from these methodological standards in real data. We employed both a traditional approach violating these standards and an advanced approach implementing them in two large-scale datasets, PANIC-net (n = 261) and Protect-AD (n = 614).
Results
The PROBAST-rating revealed a substantial risk of bias across studies, primarily due to inappropriate methodological choices. Most studies did not adhere to the examined prediction modeling standards, employing LOO CV and allowing data leakage. The comparison between the traditional and advanced approach revealed that ignoring these standards could systematically overestimate the utility of the PAI.
Conclusion
Our study cautions that violating standards in predictive modeling may strongly influence the evaluation of the PAI's utility, possibly leading to false positive results. To support an unbiased evaluation, crucial for potential clinical application, we provide a low-bias, openly accessible, and meticulously annotated script implementing the PAI.
In the absence of its founding figure Jesus Christ, Christianity developed diverse expressions of spirituality and worship. Central to this process is the embodiment of Jesus’s presence via representation and reenactment, traversing the milestones of Jesus’s life – his childhood, adult ministry, and passion. It is marked by a duality of identification with Jesus and counter-identification with others, fostering personal transformation and deeper adherence to Jesus’s example.
In network science, one of the significant and challenging subjects is the detection of communities. Modularity [1] is a measure of community structure that compares connectivity in the network with the expected connectivity in a graph sampled from a random null model. Its optimisation is a common approach to tackle the community detection problem. We present a new method for modularity maximisation, which is based on the observation that modularity can be expressed in terms of total variation on the graph and signless total variation on the null model. The resulting algorithm is of Merriman–Bence–Osher (MBO) type. Different from earlier methods of this type, the new method can easily accommodate different choices of the null model. Besides theoretical investigations of the method, we include in this paper numerical comparisons with other community detection methods, among which the MBO-type methods of Hu et al. [2] and Boyd et al. [3], and the Leiden algorithm [4].
ATO4 compounds are a class of oxides which includes the rare earth element (REE) bearing phosphates and arsenates, REEPO4 and REEAsO4. In this study, we have investigated the isothermal high-pressure and the isobaric high-temperature behaviour of natural samples of xenotime-(Y) (ideally YPO4), chernovite-(Y) (YAsO4) and monazite-(Ce) (CePO4) from the hydrothermal veins cropping out at Mt. Cervandone in the Western Italian Alps. Experimental data based on in situ X-ray diffraction (both single-crystal and powder techniques with conventional or synchrotron radiation) have allowed us to fit the unit-cell volumes and axial thermal and compressional evolution and provide a suite of refined thermo-elastic parameters. A comprehensive analysis of the role played by the crystal chemistry on the thermo-elastic response of these minerals is discussed, along with the description of the main crystal-structural deformation mechanisms for both the zircon (xenotime and chernovite) and monazite (monazite) structural types. Pressure-induced phase transitions of xenotime-(Y) and chernovite-(Y) are discussed and compared with previous literature data, whereas a change in the compressional behaviour of monazite-(Ce) at ∼18 GPa, involving an increase in the coordination number of the REE-hosting A site, is presented and discussed.