As the global population continues to age, effective management of longevity risk becomes increasingly critical for various stakeholders. Accurate mortality forecasting serves as a cornerstone for addressing this challenge. This study proposes to leverage Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) to enhance mortality rate predictions. By extending the traditional Lee-Carter model with KPCA, we capture nonlinear patterns and complex relationships in mortality data. The newly proposed KPCA Lee-Carter algorithm is empirically tested and demonstrates superior forecasting performance. Furthermore, the model’s robustness was tested during the COVID-19 pandemic, showing that the KPCA Lee-Carter algorithm effectively captures increased uncertainty during extreme events while maintaining narrower prediction intervals. This makes it a valuable tool for mortality forecasting and risk management. Our findings contribute to the growing body of literature where actuarial science intersects with statistical learning, offering practical solutions to the challenges posed by an aging world population.

This study presents observations of coherent modes (CMs) in a spherical tokamak using a microwave interferometer near the midplane. The CMs within the 30–60 kHz frequency range were observed during electron cyclotron resonance heating only, and the frequency of the CMs increased proportionally with the square root of the electron temperature near $R = 0.7m$. Generally, these modes displayed bursting and chirping signatures with strong density rise and fall. Their appearance indicated an increase in the intensity of hard x rays, suggesting a deterioration in energetic electron confinement. Furthermore, the effect of CMs on the intensity of energetic electron-driven whistler waves was observed. They decreased when CMs were present and gradually increased with the decrease in CM intensity. The CMs may influence the intensity of whistler waves by affecting the energetic electron confinement.

To meet the demands of laser-ion acceleration at a high repetition rate, we have developed a comprehensive diagnostic system for real-time and in situ monitoring of liquid sheet targets (LSTs). The spatially resolved rapid characterizations of an LST’s thickness, flatness, tilt angle and position are fulfilled by different subsystems with high accuracy. With the help of the diagnostic system, we reveal the dependence of thickness distribution on collision parameters and report the 238-nm liquid sheet generated by the collision of two liquid jets. Control methods for the flatness and tilt angle of LSTs have also been provided, which are essential for applications of laser-driven ion acceleration and others.

Cognitive decline is a public health problem for the world’s ageing population. This study was to evaluate the relationships between serum Fe, blood Pb, Cd, Hg, Se and Mn and cognitive decline in elderly Americans. Data of this cross-sectional study were extracted from the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey (NHANES 2011–2014). Cognitive performance was measured by the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease (CERAD), Animal Fluency and Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST) tests. Weighted univariable and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the associations between six trace elements and low cognitive performance. Subgroup analyses based on diabetes and hypertension history were further assessed the associations. A total of 2002 adults over 60 years old were included. After adjusting covariates, elevated serum Fe levels were associated with the decreased risk of low cognitive performance, especially in the elderly without diabetes history and with hypertension history. High blood Cd levels were associated with the high odds of low cognitive performance in old adults with diabetes and hypertension history. Elevated blood Mn levels were connected with low cognitive performance in old hypertensive people. High blood Pb levels were related to the high odds of low cognitive performance, especially in the elderly without diabetes and hypertension history. High blood Se levels were linked to the decreased risk of low cognitive performance in all the elderly. Appropriate Fe, Se supplementation and Fe-, Se-rich foods intake, while reducing exposure to Pb, Cd and Mn may be beneficial for cognitive function in the elderly.

We developed a mechanism model which allows for simulating the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission dynamics with the combined effects of human adaptive behaviours and vaccination, aiming at predicting the end time of COVID-19 infection in global scale. Based on the surveillance information (reported cases and vaccination data) between 22 January 2020 and 18 July 2022, we validated the model by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting method. We found that (1) if without adaptive behaviours, the epidemic could sweep the world in 2022 and 2023, causing 3.098 billion of human infections, which is 5.39 times of current number; (2) 645 million people could be avoided from infection due to vaccination; and (3) in current scenarios of protective behaviours and vaccination, infection cases would increase slowly, levelling off around 2023, and it would end completely in June 2025, causing 1.024 billion infections, with 12.5 million death. Our findings suggest that vaccination and the collective protection behaviour remain the key determinants against the global process of COVID-19 transmission.

Low molecular weight glutenin subunits (LWM-GSs) play a crucial role in determining wheat flour processing quality. In this work, 35 novel LMW-GS genes (32 active and three pseudogenes) from three Aegilops umbellulata (2n = 2x = 14, UU) accessions were amplified by allelic-specific PCR. We found that all LMW-GS genes had the same primary structure shared by other known LMW-GSs. Thirty-two active genes encode 31 typical LMW-m-type subunits. The MZ424050 possessed nine cysteine residues with an extra cysteine residue located in the last amino acid residue of the conserved C-terminal III, which could benefit the formation of larger glutenin polymers, and therefore may have positive effects on dough properties. We have found extensive variations which were mainly resulted from single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and insertions and deletions (InDels) among the LMW-GS genes in Ae. umbellulata. Our results demonstrated that Ae. umbellulata is an important source of LMW-GS variants and the potential value of the novel LMW-GS alleles for wheat quality improvement.

Echinococcus shiquicus is currently limited to the Qinghai–Tibet plateau, a large mountainous region in China. Although the zoonotic potential remains unknown, progress is being made on the distribution and intermediate host range. In this study, we report E. shiquicus within Gansu and Qinghai provinces in regions located not only around the central areas but also the southeast edge of the plateau and describe their genetic relationship with previous isolates from the plateau. From 1879 plateau pikas examined, 2.39% (95% CI 1.79–3.18) were infected with E. shiquicus. The highest prevalence of 10.26% (4.06–23.58) was recorded in Makehe town, Qinghai province. Overall the prevalence was marginally higher in Qinghai (2.5%, CI 1.82–3.43) than in Gansu (2%, CI 1.02–3.89). The cox1 and nad1 genes demonstrated high and low haplotype and nucleotide diversities, respectively. The median-joining network constructed by the cox1–nad1 gene sequences demonstrated a star-like configuration with a median vector (unsampled haplotype) occupying the centre of the network. No peculiar distinction or common haplotype was observed in isolates originating from the different provinces. The presence of E. shiquicus in regions of the southeast and northeast edges of the Qinghai–Tibet plateau and high genetic variation warrants more investigation into the haplotype distribution and genetic polymorphism by exploring more informative DNA regions of the mitochondrial genome to provide epidemiologically useful insight into the population structure of E. shiquicus across the plateau and its axis.

This study examined Echinococcus spp. genotypes and genetic variants isolated from humans as well as domestic and wild animals from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Area using the cox1 gene. All samples except the pika isolates were identified as the Echinococcus granulosus sensu stricto. Sixteen different haplotypes with considerable intraspecific variation were detected and characterized in mitochondrial cox1 sequences. The parsimonious network of cox1 haplotypes showed star-like features, and the neutrality indexes computed via Tajima's D and Fu's Fs tests showed high negative values in E. granulosus s. s., indicating deviations from neutrality; the Fst values were low among the populations, implying that the populations were not genetically differentiated. The pika isolates were identified as E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus. Only one haplotype was recognized in the pika isolates. E. granulosus s. s. was the predominant species found in animals and humans, followed by E. multilocularis and E. shiquicus, with high genetic diversity circulating among the animals and humans in this area. Further studies are needed to cover many sample collection sites and larger numbers of pathogen isolates, which may reveal abundant strains and/or other haplotypes in the hydatid cysts infecting human and animal populations of the QTPA, China.

The quench sensitivity of 45vol% SiCp/2024Al composites manufactured by squeezed casting method has been investigated by employing Jominy end quench test which was designed to simulate the one dimension cooling process of the composites. It can be found that the cooling rates decreased with the increase of the distance from the quenched end. The results indicated that the as-quenched and as-aged hardness exhibited a significant decrease with increasing the distance from the quenched end. The depths corresponding to 90% of maximum as-aged hardness were 30 mm. When the quench cooling rate was 23.5 °C/s, the hardness was the maximum. The variation of as-aged hardness with cooling rate was identical with the overall enthalpy involved in the precipitation of all metastable phases (S″ + θ″ + S′ + θ′). The SiCp/2024Al composites exhibited two sensitivity regimes: at slower cooling rates the quench sensitivity had been attributed to the formation of intermediate precipitates during cooling, while it was mildly quench sensitive at higher cooling rates.

In this paper, electrical and optical emission spectrometer (OES) characteristics of an Ar/air atmospheric-pressure plasma jet (APPJ) based on the plasma needle and plasma pencil systems were investigated and analyzed. Electrical measurement results showed that the breakdown and working voltage of the jet increased with the increase of the ratio of air/Ar, and the emission intensity of Ar* significantly decreased. For the plasma needle, when the ratio of air/Ar reached 1, the OES characteristics of Ar/air were similar to those of air plasma, and the main excited species was N2*. For the plasma pencil, when a little air impurity was added in Ar, the emission intensities of N2* species will be significantly increased. Based on these two APPJ systems, photoresist materials were etched, etched results showed that the etched surface was easier to be oxidized with the addition of air into Ar. The etched surface was cleaner with pure Ar plasma with scanning substrate methods than that with the Ar/air mixture. Etched results of higher ratios of air/Ar plasma were similar to those of air plasma.

The Chinese Area Positioning System (CAPS) is a regional satellite navigation system; its space segment consists of some Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) satellites and 2∼3 Inclined Geo-Synchronous Orbit (IGSO) satellites. Only a few satellites are needed to provide good area coverage and hence it is an ideal space segment for a regional navigation system. A time transfer mode is used to transmit navigation signals, so no high-precision atomic clocks are required onboard the satellites; all of the transferred navigation signals are generated by the same atomic clock at the master control station on the ground. By using virtual clock technology, the time of emission of signals from the ground control station is transformed to the time of transfer of signals at the phase centre of the satellite antenna; thus the impact of ephemeris errors of satellite on positioning accuracy is greatly decreased, enabling the CAPS to have the capability of wide area augmentation. A novel technology of orbit determination, called Paired Observation Combination for Both Stations (POCBS), proposed by the National Time Service Centre, is used in CAPS. The generation and measurement of ranging signals for the orbit survey are carried out in the ground station and the instrument errors are corrected in real-time. The determination of the clock offset is completely independent of the determination of satellite orbit, so the error of the clock offset has no impact on orbit determination. Therefore, a very high precision of satellite orbits, better than 4·2 cm (1 drms) can be obtained by the stations under regional distribution.

Four kinds of YBa2Cu2Ox (YBCO) superconducting powders with different particle sizes, shapes and different amounts of twins have been prepared in this work. The density, grain sizes, XRD of phase composition, configuration of twins of the ceramics have been investigated. The relation between the characteristics of YBCO powders and the microstructure, current density of the bulk materials are also discussed. In contrast to the YBCO powder prepared by solid state method, the YBCO powders through the improved coprecipitat ion approach have less impurities, smaller particle size and much more amounts of twins, as well as the sintered pellets show a higher density, an orthorhombic single phase, and moreover, the pellets have finer grain boundaries and well developed twins. As a result these samples exhibit current densities (about 1500 A/cm2) higher than those prepared by solid state method. Using BaOx instead of BaCO3 as the starting material, a more dense bulk YBCO ceramics with orthorhombic single phase and Jc (about 1,000 A/cm2) can have also been fabricated by solid state mat hod.